VIRUS CAUSES WALL STREET TO SHUDDER

アップデート済

News of one person in the USA being struck my a Chinese coronavirus, cause the markets to retreat on a northward charge. Only some 200+ points. Not much but it is significant.

The DJI is highly overpriced at the moment for a whole load of reasons, and it's very twitchy. The fact that the markets reacted to this story at all shows the twitchiness. It's just one case. But usually insiders know before the mainstream media what's going on.

News is that moves markets, cuz it's about sentiment more than fundamental value. Many things have shaken the market in recent months. People have been watching closely and nervously - guessing what will prick the bubble to cause a pop.

Stay tuned. Anything that rocks this market is worth watching for those who need to get out, or short.

This is not advice to short this market. If you lose your money kindly sue yourself.

ノート

The latest virus situation is not to be underestimated. A number of things can be affected, some were seen with SARS outbreak years ago.

For the current situation:
1. Expect things to get worse before they get better. This is because the outbreak has only just been discovered. Discovery means that nature's work has already been gathering momentum. It'll take much human effort to contain and reduce momentum.
2. Nobody knows how big the outbreak will actually be.
3. Airlines, other means of public travel, tourism related industries/earnings, major sports events - are likely to be affected - and we can't know for how long or how badly.
4. Expect POTUS and other world leaders to be out in front stating 'It's all under control - everybody calm down'. This is likely to cause markets to rocket north, followed by a different reality.

ノート

Also making the markets nervous today are increasing trade tensions about US tariffs on cars from the UK. This is in response to the UK threatening US tech firms with digital taxes.

ノート

Important potential turning point or trend change area ahead.

ノート

I don't know if I will be of any help - cuz nobody likes bad news.

The panic about the virus is not so much about numbers of people dead - now 18 at 21:27 2020-01-23 (GMT). The panic is about economic impact. Like how?
1 - Impact on travel of all sorts
2 - Airline industry to be specific.
3 - Transportation of people and goods, other than by air.
4. Hotels, casinos - anywhere large numbers of people gather - and there are backlashes all around into industries that serve other industries. (So difficult to give a full list here).

Numbers of people infected and those who have died, reported in mainstream media - normally influenced by governments - will be conservative and massaged in advance.

The virus is transmitted by the air. Anybody infected breathing out will transmit droplets of breath - with virus in them - for several feet around them. Laser photography shows best how human breath transmits droplets. Natural air currents will cause those droplets to travel further - so this is now the virus gets circulated around.

But this virus has had from about mid-December 2019 to now to be spread all over the world (because little was known back then). This means that nature is well ahead of any protective measures implemented in last few days.

There is currently no vaccine to protect people and no medicine that can kill the virus dead in an infected person. The problem is that by the time an infected person is discovered, they will have infected several other people (unknowingly).

Health workers caring for infected people will need to wear special equipment. But some health workers will be unaware who exactly is infected. The initial symptoms don't stand out very well from other virus infections. So this is where there is high risk. If loads of doctors and nurses etc in hospitals all around the world contract this virus, there will be real trouble. Just to be clear, I'm not saying that everybody who is infected will die.

So even if small percentages of people die from this virus infection, the big impact will likely be on economies.

So twitchy have been markets that this evening, the markets rocked north on word that the WHO will not announce a global crisis about the virus. Could you imagine if they did make such an announcement, what would happen next in the markets?

I'm not a virus expert - this does not mean I'm forbidden from applying basic science.

ノート

Reliable estimates (which I am unable to quote due to house rules), state that estimates of numbers of people infected by the virus in China is approximately 4000. This is about 3 times what is seen in mainstream media.

WHO is likely to discover the scale of the problem before their 10-day wait.

ノート

Virus death toll in China rises of 25 from 18. New cases emerge in Vietnam, Singapore; Japan reports second case.

Expect the WHO to revise the situation before their proposed 10-day waiting period. If this happens expect the markets to react in fear.