ポンド／米ドルショート
GBPUSD short side analysis by tecnical and fundamentals
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL
1. Monetary Policy
In March the BoE hiked rates by 25bsp as expected but delivered a bearish hike with BOE's Cunliffe dissenting by voting to leave rates unchanged. This was a stark change from February where 4 members voted for a 50bsp hike. Cunliffe noted the negative impacts of higher commodity prices on real household incomes and economic activity as the main reason for his dissention, while remaining members thought a 25bsp hike was appropriate given the tight labour market and risks of second round effects. Even though inflation forecasts were upgraded to 8% in Q2 (previous 7.25%), the negative view that GDP was expected to slow to subdued rates showed growing concern of stagflation. The most bearish element of the statement was a change in language regarding incoming rates where the bank said they judge that some further modest tightening MIGHT be appropriate where previous guidance
The S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI was revised slightly lower to 55.2 in March of 2022 from a preliminary of 55.5, pointing to the lowest growth in factory activity since February of 2021. Output and new orders both expanded at reduced rates, while new export business contracted for the second successive month. Manufacturers indicated that ongoing supply shortages, greater caution among clients, escalating inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions had all hampered the upturn. There were also slower upturns in both stocks of purchases and employment and a lessening in the extent to which average supplier lead times were lengthening. At the same time, input prices rose for the twenty-eighth consecutive month, with the rate of increase hitting a three-month high. Finally, business confidence fell to a 14-month low amid concerns about rising geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures and labour shortages
1. Monetary Policy
In March the BoE hiked rates by 25bsp as expected but delivered a bearish hike with BOE's Cunliffe dissenting by voting to leave rates unchanged. This was a stark change from February where 4 members voted for a 50bsp hike. Cunliffe noted the negative impacts of higher commodity prices on real household incomes and economic activity as the main reason for his dissention, while remaining members thought a 25bsp hike was appropriate given the tight labour market and risks of second round effects. Even though inflation forecasts were upgraded to 8% in Q2 (previous 7.25%), the negative view that GDP was expected to slow to subdued rates showed growing concern of stagflation. The most bearish element of the statement was a change in language regarding incoming rates where the bank said they judge that some further modest tightening MIGHT be appropriate where previous guidance
The S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI was revised slightly lower to 55.2 in March of 2022 from a preliminary of 55.5, pointing to the lowest growth in factory activity since February of 2021. Output and new orders both expanded at reduced rates, while new export business contracted for the second successive month. Manufacturers indicated that ongoing supply shortages, greater caution among clients, escalating inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions had all hampered the upturn. There were also slower upturns in both stocks of purchases and employment and a lessening in the extent to which average supplier lead times were lengthening. At the same time, input prices rose for the twenty-eighth consecutive month, with the rate of increase hitting a three-month high. Finally, business confidence fell to a 14-month low amid concerns about rising geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures and labour shortages
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