ibm analysis from a statistical perspective

2023年2月22日

On January 2017, IBM had a adj.close price of $124.89. On January 2023, ibm had a price of $133.09. This is obviously a mature company and doesn't currently see huge consistent growth at this point. The best approach would be a fundamental value play as opposed to statistical mean reversion. IBM has an expected average monthly return of 0.35%, with a 4.35% arithmetic annual average and a 1% geometric annual average return on your money. IBM currently has a 6.27% Required return and it currently doesn't make beyond that annually as stated by the geo annual average. That metric basically means that you're better off purchasing an index as opposed to owning this stock. However, that doesn't mean there isnt any opportunity. It has low volatility at 7.48% currently. I personally wouldn't buy this due to its lack of growth in stock price, and the other factors previously mentioned, but if you can anticipate the business decisions that they'll make, which may potentially change their position in the industry, then i say this is worth looking into from that perspective.

However i will state that the simple valuation i calculated values IBM at $160.83 even after everything i mentioned. Safe trading folks!