MSCC Potential Elliott Third Impulse Wave Break Out
アップデート済
Hi all,
This plan is about capturing the price movement of an Elliott Third Impulse Wave.
1. From 2009 to the end of 2014, MSCC has been trading choppily from 8.00 to 28.00, tracing a gentle bullish trend line. From the start of Oct2014, market was more volatile as MSCC surges to 36 in March 2015, followed by a wide 29-38 consolidation zone that lasted until Aug 2016. From Aug 2016, a solid move is able to break out of the consolidation zone and push prices to hit around 56.00s.
From the progressively steeper trend line traced out since 2009, we establish that MSCC is likely trading in an accelerating bullish trend environment.
2. We also observed that the current price action, from Jul 2016 up to now, is likely forming out an Elliott 5 Wave pattern.
From the identified corrections. we can see 2 forms of alternation which gives us confidence that this is likely an Elliott Wave pattern in formation.
Under the Elliott 5 wave structure, price is currently tracing out corrective wave 4 and potentially shifting to the final Impulse Wave 5.
3. Next we look at the RSI(14) Oscillator. We note that the oscillator has corrected from the 83 level and is finding support at 47. This indicates that should the 5th impulse wave move occurs, there is room for the price to bring the oscillator to the 80 levels, without running the risk of being in an oversold condition.
We also see that RSI is being well supported progressively at higher levels, corresponding to an accelerated trend move of price, making a case for the increasing bullishness of the trend.
Projection:
Given that price is
a) In an accelerating bullish environment
b) A strong case that an Elliott 5 wave pattern is currently forming
c) RSI is supported at higher levels and room for upside move
We can project that price is likely to break out of the current consolidation phase in the near future, in the form of an Elliott Impulse Wave 5.
Entry Condition:
When price no lesser than 53.00 and no higher than 59.00.
Entry Method:
If price is below 57.00, we can consider averaging in, to build a position, especially on a day where price is lower than previous day's close.
If price is above 57.00, price will likely be in breakout mode and a 1 shot full size entry will be more suitable, subject to prudent position sizing.
Risk Management: Initial Stop Loss should be below 53.00. If price is able to reach around 60.00s, shift stop loss to breakeven level to minimize the possibility of a loss from the trade.
Taking Profit:
1 way to take profit is to do a sub level wave count and exit at wave 5 of the (5th wave).
Alternatively we can use the RSI as a guide and look to sell when RSI is around the RSI resistance of 83.00.
For those not familiar with Elliott wave counting, we can break profit taking into 2 parts:
50% at $60.00
40% at $65.00
10% in case price has the bullish momentum to carry on beyond $65.00.
If price progressively breach the next profit target, we should also trail the stop loss higher to the previous profit level.
Summary:
MSCC is likely to break out soon in the form of an Elliott 5th Impulse wave.
Average in to build a position If price is between 53.00-57.00.
1 shot full size entry if price is between 57.00 - 59.00.
Initial top loss below 53.00, trail accordingly should price trades progressively higher.
Profit Target is projected at 65.00.
Reference: Rule of Alternation in Elliott Wave 27:35 - 30:12
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIIyevqaJoM
-BreakOutArtist
This plan is about capturing the price movement of an Elliott Third Impulse Wave.
1. From 2009 to the end of 2014, MSCC has been trading choppily from 8.00 to 28.00, tracing a gentle bullish trend line. From the start of Oct2014, market was more volatile as MSCC surges to 36 in March 2015, followed by a wide 29-38 consolidation zone that lasted until Aug 2016. From Aug 2016, a solid move is able to break out of the consolidation zone and push prices to hit around 56.00s.
From the progressively steeper trend line traced out since 2009, we establish that MSCC is likely trading in an accelerating bullish trend environment.
2. We also observed that the current price action, from Jul 2016 up to now, is likely forming out an Elliott 5 Wave pattern.
From the identified corrections. we can see 2 forms of alternation which gives us confidence that this is likely an Elliott Wave pattern in formation.
Under the Elliott 5 wave structure, price is currently tracing out corrective wave 4 and potentially shifting to the final Impulse Wave 5.
3. Next we look at the RSI(14) Oscillator. We note that the oscillator has corrected from the 83 level and is finding support at 47. This indicates that should the 5th impulse wave move occurs, there is room for the price to bring the oscillator to the 80 levels, without running the risk of being in an oversold condition.
We also see that RSI is being well supported progressively at higher levels, corresponding to an accelerated trend move of price, making a case for the increasing bullishness of the trend.
Projection:
Given that price is
a) In an accelerating bullish environment
b) A strong case that an Elliott 5 wave pattern is currently forming
c) RSI is supported at higher levels and room for upside move
We can project that price is likely to break out of the current consolidation phase in the near future, in the form of an Elliott Impulse Wave 5.
Entry Condition:
When price no lesser than 53.00 and no higher than 59.00.
Entry Method:
If price is below 57.00, we can consider averaging in, to build a position, especially on a day where price is lower than previous day's close.
If price is above 57.00, price will likely be in breakout mode and a 1 shot full size entry will be more suitable, subject to prudent position sizing.
Risk Management: Initial Stop Loss should be below 53.00. If price is able to reach around 60.00s, shift stop loss to breakeven level to minimize the possibility of a loss from the trade.
Taking Profit:
1 way to take profit is to do a sub level wave count and exit at wave 5 of the (5th wave).
Alternatively we can use the RSI as a guide and look to sell when RSI is around the RSI resistance of 83.00.
For those not familiar with Elliott wave counting, we can break profit taking into 2 parts:
50% at $60.00
40% at $65.00
10% in case price has the bullish momentum to carry on beyond $65.00.
If price progressively breach the next profit target, we should also trail the stop loss higher to the previous profit level.
Summary:
MSCC is likely to break out soon in the form of an Elliott 5th Impulse wave.
Average in to build a position If price is between 53.00-57.00.
1 shot full size entry if price is between 57.00 - 59.00.
Initial top loss below 53.00, trail accordingly should price trades progressively higher.
Profit Target is projected at 65.00.
Reference: Rule of Alternation in Elliott Wave 27:35 - 30:12
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIIyevqaJoM
-BreakOutArtist
トレード稼働中
Hi all,Entry Condition:
When price no lesser than 53.00 and no higher than 59.00.
Entry Method:
If price is below 57.00, we can consider averaging in, to build a position, especially on a day where price is lower than previous day's close.
ノート
Yes, on 30 Jan 2017 morning, MSCC price took a beating, but overall we are in the context of a 53-57 range.A price of 54.00 is cheaply attractive, given the initial stop of 53.00. it works out to be a $1 stop in an attempt to potentially capture a $11 move.
Hence the Status of this plan is now "Active"
トレード終了: ストップロスに到達
Hi all,The price has convincingly traded past the consolidation zone of 53-57 range.
Therefore the idea is closed as the initial Stop Loss has been reached as planned.
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