Carefully sell NATGAS
FUNDAMENTALS:
• WEATHER. The latest weather forecasts look more bearish than they did on Friday. Sunday EC12z and GFS12z runs look warmer than they did on Friday, but deviation from norm still has a bullish inclination. Positive equatorial sea surface temperature anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean. A strong El Niño is expected to gradually weaken through spring 2016, and to transition to ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer 2016.
• DEMAND. We project national consumption to reach 2,686 bcf in February (-14.3% m-o-m; -9.02% y-o-y). We expect total exports to reach 179 bcf in February (+0.58% m-o-m; +23.24% y-o-y)
• SUPPLY. We expect dry gas production to reach 2,101 bcf in February (-6.42% m-o-m; +1.86% y-o-y). We do not anticipate any production growth in 2016. We expect total imports to reach 227 bcf in February (-11.08% m-o-m; -10.78% y-o-y).
• BALANCE. Implied National Balance for February currently records a deficit of 585 bcf (+304 bcf m-o-m, +305 bcf y-o-y). External Trade Balance remains positive at 48 bcf (+38 bcf m-o-m; -61 bcf y-o-y).
TECHNICALS:
• strong resistance @ 2.30
• WEATHER. The latest weather forecasts look more bearish than they did on Friday. Sunday EC12z and GFS12z runs look warmer than they did on Friday, but deviation from norm still has a bullish inclination. Positive equatorial sea surface temperature anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean. A strong El Niño is expected to gradually weaken through spring 2016, and to transition to ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer 2016.
• DEMAND. We project national consumption to reach 2,686 bcf in February (-14.3% m-o-m; -9.02% y-o-y). We expect total exports to reach 179 bcf in February (+0.58% m-o-m; +23.24% y-o-y)
• SUPPLY. We expect dry gas production to reach 2,101 bcf in February (-6.42% m-o-m; +1.86% y-o-y). We do not anticipate any production growth in 2016. We expect total imports to reach 227 bcf in February (-11.08% m-o-m; -10.78% y-o-y).
• BALANCE. Implied National Balance for February currently records a deficit of 585 bcf (+304 bcf m-o-m, +305 bcf y-o-y). External Trade Balance remains positive at 48 bcf (+38 bcf m-o-m; -61 bcf y-o-y).
TECHNICALS:
• strong resistance @ 2.30
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