Failed breakout trade - stop out example

2017年5月3日

Sometimes breakout trades fail. I wanted to post this as a very recent example of a failed trade, since that's part of reality. You can be wrong and still succeed, the critical thing is to avoid large losses.
This trade was a falling wedge, and I decided to try to take a long on a break of the falling trendline.
To properly manage risk, I try to make sure I'm aligned with the trend, and then I decide where the trade is likely to be wrong. The higher degree trend is an uptrend, and the falling wedge in this case is likely to be a countertrend move. I placed the stop at the low of the original breakout bar, about 2% away from the entry. I waited to enter until the the stock broke back above the breakout bar's high. It's possible this was what I call a shakeout, and it goes back up but I didnt stick around to find out. Better to take a small loss and get back in if it turns around than to stay wrong while the loss gets bigger, making it increasingly harder to get out. In that case, I can re-enter at a new break of the recent high pivot.

2017年5月8日

ノート

Just wanted to show a chart several days later. I made the right decision, because I'm not stressing about it going against me still. However, it can still reverse back up, so I still have an alert set at that last pivot high.

2017年5月8日

ノート

I should also point out that earnings are tomorrow, which could be the catalyst to push it higher. It could also do the reverse. The earnings gamble is not my thing. I'll let the dust settle and see if there's an opportunity to be had.