Is a perfect storm brewing?
I am looking at potential short positions on OIL related stocks as indicated by this example.
Observation
Phillips 66 has gone into a bearish mode with swing traders (around 30% of the market) losing on net longs positions with the wider market on average now being at break even.
Break-even price levels can mean either 1) important support areas, 2) break points where on-stop shorts can be positioned (without the risk of being affected by stop loss hunts)
Discussion
Several core issues to measure here:
1) OPEC - growing pump volumes'
2) USA dollar - and its purchasing power
3) US economy - is the US fiscal response still in-tact?
4) Covid-19 and economic recovery - new strains and 2nd / 3rd waves in countries - South Africa, USA etc.
We could have a situation where OPEC volumes being increased intersect with economic wobbles and new Covid impacts. So a perfect storm may be brewing!
Extra
Two oscillators are presented:
1 - Realised PnL for this stock - If I saw large losses being realised and a new cost basis being set by the wider market , I would be more inclined to think that the current set-up is a pivot point low and potential buying opportunity - currently this is NOT the case!
2 - Exempt short volume - measures the 'Urgency' of shorts- or hedgers. These points come in just before or at Pivot Point highs or after Pivot Point lows for cover. So I will be keeping an eye on this.
Good trading :)
Observation
Phillips 66 has gone into a bearish mode with swing traders (around 30% of the market) losing on net longs positions with the wider market on average now being at break even.
Break-even price levels can mean either 1) important support areas, 2) break points where on-stop shorts can be positioned (without the risk of being affected by stop loss hunts)
Discussion
Several core issues to measure here:
1) OPEC - growing pump volumes'
2) USA dollar - and its purchasing power
3) US economy - is the US fiscal response still in-tact?
4) Covid-19 and economic recovery - new strains and 2nd / 3rd waves in countries - South Africa, USA etc.
We could have a situation where OPEC volumes being increased intersect with economic wobbles and new Covid impacts. So a perfect storm may be brewing!
Extra
Two oscillators are presented:
1 - Realised PnL for this stock - If I saw large losses being realised and a new cost basis being set by the wider market , I would be more inclined to think that the current set-up is a pivot point low and potential buying opportunity - currently this is NOT the case!
2 - Exempt short volume - measures the 'Urgency' of shorts- or hedgers. These points come in just before or at Pivot Point highs or after Pivot Point lows for cover. So I will be keeping an eye on this.
Good trading :)
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