Diminishing intrinsic value?

2016年5月12日

The graph is SWTE/SPX*100, with explanation of SWTE as below. The idea that I would like to express here, with +/- the same composition of stock, earning-weights apparently gives different result compared to the normal market cap-weights, since ca. January 2015. As you can see, the ratio was steadily around 13.9-14.2 between that and 2011 and now it has been consistently decreasing with S&P 500 also started to show corrections.

For my own trading strategy, I plan to short weekly/bi-weekly relative/local tops at least for the next 3 months, with monthly index option.

Note: Unfortunately, I cannot find +/- index data with the same idea pre-2008. Any help would be appreciated.

WisdomTree Earnings 500 Index
(from wisdomtree.com/etfs/index-details.aspx?indexid=70)

The WisdomTree Earnings 500 Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of earnings-generating companies within the large-capitalization segment of the U.S. Stock Market. Companies in the index are incorporated and listed in the U.S and have generated positive cumulative earnings over their most recent four fiscal quarters prior to the index measurement date. The index is comprised of the 500 largest companies ranked by market capitalization in the WisdomTree Earnings Index. The index is earnings-weighted in December of each year to reflect the proportionate share of the aggregate earnings each component company has generated. Companies with greater earnings generally have larger weights in the index. WisdomTree Investments uses "Core Earnings", computed by Standard & Poors, as the weighting metric. Core Earnings is a standardized calculation of earnings developed by Standard & Poors designed to include expenses, incomes and activities that reflect the actual profitability of an enterprises ongoing operations.