USD/CHF: Technical outlook and review.

2014年8月14日

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• Weekly TF: Price still remains trading around the weekly decision-point level at 0.90927, and at the time of writing, no attempt to break above has been seen, instead, a little selling interest is now being seen.

• Daily TF: Price action is currently confined within a range (Daily supply: 0.91556-0.90985 Daily S/D flip area at 0.90372-0.90042) with price now trading around the lower limits of this consolidation.

A nice drop in price was seen down to the 4hr demand area at 0.90396-0.90516, this is no surprise really since the EUR/USD had some nice moving price action north, you can near enough guarantee the opposite will be happening on this pair!

We have now changed our P.A confirmation sell order originally set at 0.90960 to a pending sell order set at 0.90975 below the round number 0.91, as the sellers seem to have consumed most of the buyers around the low marked with a green flag at 0.90553.Price could do one of two things from here:

1. Rally price from this overused 4hr demand area at 0.90396-0.90516 back up to the round number 0.91, or even the 4hr supply area at 0.91329-0.91141, and then continue on south down to the 4hr decision-point level at 0.90215.

2. Price could drop through the aforementioned overused 4hr demand area towards the 4hr decision-point level at 0.90215, which would likely fill our pending buy order sitting just above at 0.90233, and then rally up to the round number 0.91, or even the 4hr supply area at 0.91329-0.91141, where once again we expect there to be a sell off here.

Let’s also not forget why we expect a sell off here, take a look on the weekly timeframe price is currently trading just below a weekly decision-point level at 0.90927.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above the decision-point level (0.90215) at 0.90233. The reasoning behind placing a pending buy order here is simply because this is the area on the 4hr timeframe where pro money buyers likely made the decision to break above (what was at the time) the 4hr supply area at 0.90372-0.90148, hence the possibility there may still be unfilled buy orders lurking around this level.
• No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below 4hr supply (0.91329-0.91141) at 0.91112. The reasoning behind setting a P.A confirmation sell order here is because price has already visited this area once already, this likely means some of the sellers have already been consumed, so a push higher may well be seen into the 4hr supply area, or even a break above, hence the need for confirmation here.
• New pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below the round number 0.91 at 0.90975. Our reasoning behind setting a pending sell order here is because the sellers previously consumed most of the buyers around the low marked with a green flag at 0.90553, likely indicating the path south is clear, thus we have now placed a pending sell order awaiting a possible return.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 0.90233 (SL: 0.90117 TP: Dependent on price approach). P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 0.90975 (SL: 0.91355 TP: Dependent on how price approaches) P.A.C: 0.91112 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).