Shorts beyond the 109 handle look interesting...
Weekly gain/loss: + 39 pips
Weekly closing price: 108.95
Looking at this market from the weekly scale, the pair clearly remains in bearish territory. Following the break of the support area at 111.44-110.10 two weeks back, the runway south still appears clear for the unit to test the support area coming in at 105.19-107.54 (holds an AB=CD 161.8% ext. at 107.14 taken from the high 118.66).
The story on the daily chart shows the demand at 108.55-109.17 to be pretty much dead and buried. We feel bids are incredibly fragile and will eventually lead to a test of the nearby support area at 107.15-107.90, which happens to also hold a 61.8% Fib support at 107.84 taken from the low 101.19.
Having put in a top just ahead of the mid-level resistance 109.50 on Thursday, the H4 candles continued to recede on Friday, eventually popping below the 109 handle into the close. There’s H4 demand seen to the left of current price, but it does not really emphasize strength, mainly because of the huge tail seen marked with a green arrow on the 20th April at 108.72.
Our suggestions: Trading short beyond 109 seems to be a valid call. However, we would ideally like to see the H4 candles retest 109 as resistance beforehand and follow up with a H4 bear candle (preferably a full-bodied close). If this should come to fruition, the first take-profit target can be seen around the H4 demand at 108.32-108.45, followed closely by another H4 demand at 107.77-108.21 which sits on top of the aforementioned daily support area.
Data points to consider: FOMC member Kashkari speaks at 4.30 and again at 8.30pm GMT+1.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 109 region (waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bear candle to form before pulling the trigger is advised, stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s wick).
Weekly closing price: 108.95
Looking at this market from the weekly scale, the pair clearly remains in bearish territory. Following the break of the support area at 111.44-110.10 two weeks back, the runway south still appears clear for the unit to test the support area coming in at 105.19-107.54 (holds an AB=CD 161.8% ext. at 107.14 taken from the high 118.66).
The story on the daily chart shows the demand at 108.55-109.17 to be pretty much dead and buried. We feel bids are incredibly fragile and will eventually lead to a test of the nearby support area at 107.15-107.90, which happens to also hold a 61.8% Fib support at 107.84 taken from the low 101.19.
Having put in a top just ahead of the mid-level resistance 109.50 on Thursday, the H4 candles continued to recede on Friday, eventually popping below the 109 handle into the close. There’s H4 demand seen to the left of current price, but it does not really emphasize strength, mainly because of the huge tail seen marked with a green arrow on the 20th April at 108.72.
Our suggestions: Trading short beyond 109 seems to be a valid call. However, we would ideally like to see the H4 candles retest 109 as resistance beforehand and follow up with a H4 bear candle (preferably a full-bodied close). If this should come to fruition, the first take-profit target can be seen around the H4 demand at 108.32-108.45, followed closely by another H4 demand at 107.77-108.21 which sits on top of the aforementioned daily support area.
Data points to consider: FOMC member Kashkari speaks at 4.30 and again at 8.30pm GMT+1.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 109 region (waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bear candle to form before pulling the trigger is advised, stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s wick).
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