GOLD: Our idea.

2014年8月18日

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• Weekly TF: Price still remains trading between the weekly supply area above at 1391.97-1328.04 and a nice-looking weekly decision-point level below at 1244.04; however, current trading action is taking place nearer the weekly supply area for the time being.

• Daily TF: Price is capped between the aforementioned daily S/R flip level and a daily decision-point level at 1318.96. If a break above is seen, watch for price to likely test daily supply at 1344.91-1333.55, conversely, a break below could see a drop in price down to a major daily S/R flip level at 1277.36.

The market opened at 1304.58, just below the 4hr S/R flip level at 1304.77, and the sellers immediately got to work! However it did not take the buyers too long to put a stop to this and push prices back up to around the aforementioned 4hr S/R flip area.

We see a short-term opportunity on gold; it may not work, and will definitely require confirmation. A break below the 4hr S/R flip level (level above) was seen last week, as was a minor retest, take a look below there, can you see the decision candle marked at 1290.72? This took a lot of buying power to move price, the only people who can move price this much is pro money, and a touch of this level is yet to be seen and would make a fantastic target. So, we have placed a P.A confirmation sell level at 1304.21 just under the 4hr S/R flip level, for us to place a pending sell order here we want to see the buyers around the low marked with an arrow at 1297.23 consumed, price may then see a small retracement, fill our pending sell order (which will be set if the buyers are consumed around the low), and then drop down to the 4hr decision-point level/candle mentioned above.

Pending/P.A confirmation levels:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above 4hr demand (1258.40-1264.53) at 1266.09. The reason a pending buy order has been set here, is because this area in our opinion remains the overall origin of a big rally to the upside, likely meaning there are a lot of unfilled buy orders siting in and around this area.
• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above the 4hr S/D flip area (1284.77-1280.53) at 1285.71. We have set a pending buy order here since the buyers have proved this to be an area of interest (they traded above the high marked with a green flag at 1297.20 – which was at the time a requirement for a pending buy order to be set), so for the time being we are now awaiting a return back to this area where our pending buy order will likely be filled in the process.
• No P.A confirmation buy levels (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
• P.A confirmation sell levels (Red line) are seen just below the 4hr R/S flip level (1323.04) at 1321.55. We have set a P.A confirmation sell level here simply because price could easily break above this level, and head for the 4hr supply area at 1342.30-1335.74, hence the need to wait for confirmation.
• The P.A confirmation sell level (Red line) set just below the 4hr S/R flip level (1304.77) at 1304.21 is now active and awaiting confirmation. For this area to be confirmed, the sellers will need to consume some or most of the buyers around the low marked with an arrow at 1297.23, we will then consider setting a pending sell order awaiting a possible return.