Bitcoin's logarithmic growth curve from July 2011-May 2014

2014年5月14日

Using munkeefonix's combined MTGox-BitStamp chart I tried to find the most accurate exponential growth curve for bitcoin. The curve used by many people now necessarily uses only Stamp data, but yields a line that moves away from the historic price when placed on the combined data chart. A better fit, which includes several other low points along the price history, is using Gox's data from the Silk Road crash during the post-April 2013 bubble period, and the (current) low from the post-November 2013 bubble period. This yields an equivalent line to using Stamp's $63 low from the April bubble and the $340 from the post-Nov bubble period. (This also makes a certain kind of sense if the $340 low from the Nov bubble holds.)

This line may not be perfect, but it's easily reproducible and I would argue it's more accurate than simply using the Stamp logarithmic growth curve that fits the last two bubbles. Gox was the market leader through most of bitcoin's history, with Stamp taking over only very recently.