YM and ES Harmonic Short

2017年6月1日

Bearish Harmonic Shark pattern completing in the same area as a Bearish Harmonic AB=CD on the daily time frame. This is combined with an intraday Bearish Harmonic Crab completing in the same vicinity. Outside of harmonic patterns, I believe that this will mark the completion of minute b of minor 4 in Elliott Wave speak. Looking to short on the next rally to near the 21150 level.

/ES is in a daily Bearish Harmonic Butterfly pattern (tho technically speaking it is not valid because the B retracement is only .707, it could theoretically extend to a crab at 2450), daily Bearish AB=CD, and an intraday Bearish Harmonic Crab pattern itself. /NQ completed an intraday Bearish Bat this morning and looks to be attempting to hit resistance one more time with the rest of the major indices.

Futures are trading at a discount to spot, negative divergences on a daily and weekly timeframe in the major indices, and many other signs pointing to this being a short-term top in the market.

Going to enter the first leg once the YM target of 21150 is hit or the market is close and seems unable to eclipse it. Expecting a high volume late day reversal. Has not been one in months either up or down, and price, along with online sentiment, agree that this is a strong possibility today. Would theoretically add a second leg if this occurred and possibly scale down or exit the short position if the markets continue rallying.

2017年6月1日

ノート

no position. hopefully they don't run it down overnight and i get another chance in the morning. was unable to pull the trigger at the 4:00 market close due to the extreme nature of the price action. ES managed to hit near the 2.00XA stop-loss intraday harmonic crab target so this needs to reverse pretty soon or to the moon this market will continue going.

2017年6月3日

ノート

beginning to believe this idea is not going to pan out. While 21267 is the level where the pattern is disconfirmed, /es is past a butterfly and now its crab projection is 2452. /nq also has AB=CD that is completing around 5900. Seriously doubting the B wave scenario and the only thing keeping me from completely throwing the towel in is my belief that the markets job is to get all participants to this level of bullishness before it crushes them in a quick down move. Also, the russell 2000 e minis look to be forming a beautiful triangle with an e wave down that looks like it began on friday. Early next week will be telling, it just does not look like the market is going to be able to hit their targets as the /es needs a significant move up relative to the other two indices and this is a rampant bull market. Will not be chasing the tech high flyers until a legitimate correction occurs (give or take 5%), but am starting to look towards the oil market and financials, because if this is indeed a fifth wave i expect them to start moving to the upside in what would most likely be the financials and energy bringing the market up as the tech stocks begin their corrections.