Top: Monthly Corn - Green boxes illustrate Harvest rallies from Aug into the next year. The dark green boxes below represent the end of each rally. Strength of rally’s depend on strengh or weakness of dollar and money flows from the funds and (more importantly) hedge activity from the commercials.
Middle: US Dollar- Strong $ discourages a healthy US export market. Slows demand. Weak dollar strengthens the grain markets
Bottom : COT / Funds & Commercials – Weak dollar spurs export demand. Demand creates volatility & higher prices. All of which work together to engage the producers selling. The commercials buy the physical (offsetting with short hedges), and the speculators riding the waves. At times the commercials get caught with sudden strong demand or short crop. Commercials can remain short for extended periods until the next supply build. Funds stay Long
Middle: US Dollar- Strong $ discourages a healthy US export market. Slows demand. Weak dollar strengthens the grain markets
Bottom : COT / Funds & Commercials – Weak dollar spurs export demand. Demand creates volatility & higher prices. All of which work together to engage the producers selling. The commercials buy the physical (offsetting with short hedges), and the speculators riding the waves. At times the commercials get caught with sudden strong demand or short crop. Commercials can remain short for extended periods until the next supply build. Funds stay Long
