MTPI OTHERS.D | JeffreyTimmermans

Medium-Term Trend Probability Indicator

The "Medium-Term Trend Probability Indicator" on OTHERS.D is a custom-built model designed to measure the medium-term trend strength of the entire crypto market excluding the Top 10 assets. By focusing on the performance of smaller-cap and emerging cryptocurrencies, this indicator offers a refined view of risk appetite and capital rotation beyond the major players like BTC, ETH, and other top coins.

OTHERS.D (Total Crypto Market Cap Dominance excluding the Top 10) serves as a proxy for altcoin speculation cycles, market breadth, and rotational momentum. The MTPI leverages this by applying 8 carefully selected trend-following indicators to generate a composite probability score that reflects the directional bias of the broader altcoin market.

Key Features

Mid-Term Trend Orientation:

• The MTPI focuses on multi-week to multi-month trend phases, filtering out short-term volatility while responding faster than long-term macro models.
  

8 Input Signals:

• Built using 8 trend-following indicators, each measuring trend strength, direction, and persistence within the "OTHERS" segment.
  

Market Regime Detection:

The MTPI identifies three distinct market states:

• Bullish → Clear upward trend in the altcoin market (excluding top 10)
  
• Bearish → Persistent downward movement or weakness in the broader altcoin segment
  
• Neutral → Choppy or indecisive behavior
  

Background Coloring:

• The background dynamically adapts based on the current regime, making it easy to visually identify dominant conditions.
  

Trend Dashboard:

A dashboard displays:

• The current state of all 8 trend signals
  
• The overall MTPI score
  
• The interpreted market regime
  

How It Works

Trend Signal Evaluation:

Each of the 8 inputs outputs a discrete signal:

• +1 → Bullish
  
• -1 → Bearish
  
• 0 → Neutral
  

Composite Score Calculation:

The MTPI score is computed as the average of the 8 inputs:

• Score > +0.1 → Bullish regime
  
• Score < -0.1 → Bearish regime
  
• Between -0.1 and +0.1 → Neutral regime
  

This produces a normalized score from -1 to +1, helping quantify trend confidence and detect early shifts in momentum.

Color-Coded Background:

The score automatically drives the background color:

• Green tones for bullish phases
  
• Red tones for bearish phases
  
• Gray/orange tones for sideways conditions
  

Use Cases

Altcoin Rotation Tracking:

• Use MTPI – OTHERS.D to monitor when capital is rotating into or out of smaller-cap cryptocurrencies — a key signal for risk-on or risk-off sentiment.
  

Medium-Term Positioning:

• Perfect for swing traders or trend followers looking to align positions with the dominant trend in the non-top-10 market segment.
  

Multi-Timeframe Confirmation:

• Combine MTPI with other tools like STPI (Short-Term) or LTPI (Long-Term) for enhanced decision-making and better timing across timeframes.
  

Dynamic Alerts:

• Bullish Entry: MTPI score crosses above +0.1
  
• Bearish Entry: MTPI score crosses below -0.1
  
• Neutral Zone: MTPI score moves between -0.1 and +0.1
  

These alerts help you react quickly to regime shifts in the altcoin market outside the top 10.

Conclusion

The MTPI – OTHERS.D is a focused, probability-based trend tool built for analyzing the non-top-10 segment of the crypto market. By merging 8 independent trend signals into a single composite score and regime model, it provides a clear lens into where capital is flowing and how smaller-cap crypto assets are behaving. An essential tool for anyone active in altcoin trading, rotational strategies, or full-spectrum crypto market analysis.