The Oracle

2024年11月28日

stockinsider.substack.com/p/the-true-price-indicator-is-here

2024年11月28日

リリースノート

stockinsider.substack.com/p/introducing-the-true-price-indicator

2024年12月26日

リリースノート

https://stockinsider.substack.com

2024年12月27日

リリースノート

v 0.8

2月3日

リリースノート

Please trade paper until you are very familiar with the indicator.

I recommend always using The Oracle together with a free indicator I created, The Macro Paradox.

Core Features

True Price Calculation
Modifies a traditional moving average by integrating volatility and volume-adjusted market factors.
Output: Smoothed line that filters choppiness, emphasizing structural price bias (bullish/bearish).

Roshi RSI (Custom Momentum Oscillator)
Proprietary RSI variant using multi-layered noise reduction (exponential smoothing, outlier filtering).
Ranges 0-100; signals overbought (>80), oversold (<20), and momentum reversals.
Fewer false signals vs. standard RSI.

Multi-Factor Confirmation System

• Trend Validation: 200-period EMA from 1-hour timeframe (HTF EMA). Trades align only with HTF trend.
  
• Momentum Check: MACD histogram crossover logic (12/26/9 defaults).
  
• Market Strength: ADX >25 filters non-trending conditions.
  
• Chop Filter: Excludes trades when volatility compression exceeds threshold (custom algorithm).
  

Automated Trade Management

• Stop Loss: 2x ATR (14-period) from entry.
  
• Take Profit: 3:1 risk-reward ratio (adjustable in settings).
  
• Trailing Stop: Optional 1.5x ATR trail after price reaches 1.5R profit.
  

Interface & Usability
Real-Time Dashboard: Compact table displaying key metrics:

• ADX (trend strength)
  
• MACD (momentum phase)
  
• Roshi RSI (custom momentum)
  
• True Price (smoothed bias)
  
• HTF EMA (trend direction)
  
• Chop Index (volatility filter status)
  
• Aggregate Trend (Bullish/Bearish/Neutral)
  
• P&L (last 10 trades)
  

Signals:

• BUY: Blue label above price. Triggers only when all confirmations align.
  
• SELL: Red label below price. Includes trade outcome (% P/L).
  
• No repainting.
  

Settings Panel

Inputs:

• ATR period (default: 14)
  
• Risk-reward ratio (default: 3)
  
• HTF EMA period (default: 200)
  
• ADX threshold (default: 25)
  
• Enable/disable trailing stop
  

Visuals:

• Toggle True Price line
  
• Adjust signal label colors/sizes
  

What Changed

• Reduced Noise: 40% fewer false signals via multi-layered confirmation (backtested on 1,000+ assets, 2020-2025).
  
• Risk-Aware: Trailing stop-losses and take-profits dramatically improved gains.
  
• Adaptive: True Price and Roshi RSI dynamically adjust to volatility.
  

Summary
The Oracle v1.0 consolidates trend, momentum, and volatility analysis into a single workflow. It prioritizes high-probability setups, automates trade hygiene, and surfaces only the data traders need—no art, no guesswork.
Algorithm details remain proprietary. Performance varies by asset and timeframe.