PROTECTED SOURCE SCRIPT
BTC Physical Probability
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// ║ Advanced Multi-Format Data Parser & Visualization System ║
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// ║ © 2026 - OzyTarget Systems ║
// ║ Classified Level: PROFESSIONAL GRADE ║
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This indicator analyzes Bitcoin market regimes using a physical cost-based approach, not sentiment or news.
It models BTC as an energy-intensive system, where price behavior is constrained by:
A long-term cost proxy (200-week moving average),
Normalized volatility (stress vs normal conditions),
Drawdown pressure (structural damage).
The script outputs three probability curves:
Downside Probability (red): risk of continued downside due to physical and volatility stress.
Floor / Capitulation Probability (orange): likelihood that price is near a transitional or capitulation zone.
Upside Probability (green): probability of a sustainable upside regime, not a short-term bounce.
A single status label on the right summarizes the current regime:
BUY: upside probability dominates while downside risk is controlled.
SELL: downside probability dominates while upside is weak.
WAIT: no clear edge; transitional or high-noise conditions.
How to use
Best used on 1D or 1W timeframes.
Use BUY / SELL / WAIT as a regime filter, not as exact entries.
WAIT zones are intentionally frequent and represent periods of uncertainty where risk/reward is asymmetric.
Why this model
Bitcoin is not analyzed here as a traditional financial asset, but as a physical system constrained by cost, energy, and volatility.
The goal is to identify high-probability environments, not to predict exact tops or bottoms.
Educational use only.
This indicator does not predict future prices and is not financial advice.
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// ║ ║
// ║ ║
// ║ Advanced Multi-Format Data Parser & Visualization System ║
// ║ ║
// ║ © 2026 - OzyTarget Systems ║
// ║ Classified Level: PROFESSIONAL GRADE ║
// ║ ║
// ╚═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ ╝
This indicator analyzes Bitcoin market regimes using a physical cost-based approach, not sentiment or news.
It models BTC as an energy-intensive system, where price behavior is constrained by:
A long-term cost proxy (200-week moving average),
Normalized volatility (stress vs normal conditions),
Drawdown pressure (structural damage).
The script outputs three probability curves:
Downside Probability (red): risk of continued downside due to physical and volatility stress.
Floor / Capitulation Probability (orange): likelihood that price is near a transitional or capitulation zone.
Upside Probability (green): probability of a sustainable upside regime, not a short-term bounce.
A single status label on the right summarizes the current regime:
BUY: upside probability dominates while downside risk is controlled.
SELL: downside probability dominates while upside is weak.
WAIT: no clear edge; transitional or high-noise conditions.
How to use
Best used on 1D or 1W timeframes.
Use BUY / SELL / WAIT as a regime filter, not as exact entries.
WAIT zones are intentionally frequent and represent periods of uncertainty where risk/reward is asymmetric.
Why this model
Bitcoin is not analyzed here as a traditional financial asset, but as a physical system constrained by cost, energy, and volatility.
The goal is to identify high-probability environments, not to predict exact tops or bottoms.
Educational use only.
This indicator does not predict future prices and is not financial advice.
保護スクリプト
このスクリプトのソースコードは非公開で投稿されています。 ただし、制限なく自由に使用できます – 詳細はこちらでご確認ください。
Volume analyst
免責事項
この情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または推奨する金融、投資、トレード、その他のアドバイスや推奨を意図するものではなく、それらを構成するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。
保護スクリプト
このスクリプトのソースコードは非公開で投稿されています。 ただし、制限なく自由に使用できます – 詳細はこちらでご確認ください。
Volume analyst
免責事項
この情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または推奨する金融、投資、トレード、その他のアドバイスや推奨を意図するものではなく、それらを構成するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。