MTPI SUI | JeffreyTimmermans

Medium-Term Trend Probability Indicator

The "Medium-Term Trend Probability Indicator" on SUI is a custom-designed tool created to analyze SUI from a medium-term perspective. While short-term indicators often respond to quick fluctuations and long-term models focus on broader macro cycles, the MTPI sits perfectly in between—detecting trend shifts over multiple weeks and helping traders and analysts stay ahead of the curve.

This specific version of the MTPI is applied to SUI, making it a dedicated trend-following tool for this unique digital asset, tuned to reflect its own volatility and structural behavior.

Key Features

Medium-Term Focus:

• The MTPI is optimized for trend tracking over medium horizons—typically weeks to a few months. It filters out noise while remaining responsive to meaningful directional changes.
  

6 Input Signals:

• The model combines 6 carefully selected input trend-following indicators, each targeting different dimensions of trend strength and continuation.
  

Market Regimes:

The MTPI classifies market conditions into:

• Bullish → Strong upward momentum and trend confirmation
  
• Bearish → Sustained downward pressure and breakdown signals
  
• Neutral → Mixed signals or transition phases, often seen in consolidations or early reversals
  

Visual Background:

• The chart background shifts based on the active regime. This provides instant visual clarity on whether the asset is trending, reversing, or consolidating.
  

Indicator Dashboard:

At the bottom of the chart, the MTPI includes a live dashboard showing:

• The state of all 6 inputs (Bullish, Bearish, Neutral)
  
• The composite MTPI Score
  
• The resulting Market Trend classification
  

How It Works

Input Signal Logic:

Each input returns one of three possible scores:

• +1 = Bullish
  
• -1 = Bearish
  
• 0 = Neutral
  

Score Aggregation:

The MTPI Score is calculated as the average of all 6 input values:

• Score > +0.1 → Bullish regime
  
• Score < -0.1 → Bearish regime
  
• Between -0.1 and +0.1 → Neutral regime
  

Background Coloring:

• The background changes automatically to match the current trend regime, making it visually easy to interpret the dominant market environment.
  

Use Cases

Mid-Term Strategy Alignment:

• Use the MTPI to align with the dominant medium-term market direction on SUI.
  

Rotation & Momentum Detection:

• Catch early signs of reversals, breakout expansions, or trend exhaustion.
  

Multi-Timeframe Integration:

• Combine MTPI with short-term tools (STPI) or long-term indicators (LTPI) for a complete market overview.
  

Dynamic Alerts:

• Bullish Alert: MTPI Score crosses above +0.1
  
• Bearish Alert: MTPI Score crosses below -0.1
  
• Neutral Zone: MTPI Score enters between -0.1 and +0.1
  

Conclusion

The MTPI – SUI is a reliable medium-term probability model that simplifies complex market structure into an actionable, color-coded signal system. By distilling 6 intelligent inputs into one combined trend score, it offers clear directional bias and regime classification—crucial for positioning in a volatile asset like SUI. Whether used standalone or as part of a broader trend framework, this indicator enhances clarity, discipline, and precision in your medium-term trading decisions.