eXquTrading FIB (Auto)eXquTrading FIB (Auto) — EMA144/169 Cloud + 8X Score + Auto Fibonacci (Single Set)
This indicator uses the EMA144/169 Cloud to define the market regime (LONG/SHORT/NEUTRAL), then generates BUY/SELL signals based on an 8-factor scoring system, while automatically drawing one Fibonacci set and extending it to the right so labels remain readable.
Features
Trend Regime (EMA144/169 Cloud):
Above cloud = LONG, below cloud = SHORT, inside cloud = NEUTRAL
8X Score Signals: confirmations from RSI, MACD, Stoch, Momentum, Volume, MFI, CCI, OBV(EMA)
Noise-reduction filters:
ATR-based cloud distance filter (reduces chasing signals)
ATR-based impulse candle filter (blocks oversized candles)
Cooldown (limits back-to-back signals)
Auto Fibonacci (Single Set):
Rebuilds on trend flip / fib invalidation / (optional) when a signal appears and no fib exists
Levels: -1.618, -1, -0.382, 0, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 1
Fib lines extend to the right on every bar (labels stay clean)
Settings (Quick tips)
Increase Minimum Confirmations (Score) → fewer but cleaner signals
Tighten ATR filters in choppy markets, loosen slightly in strong trends
Increase Right Pad Bars to keep right-side labels readable
Repaint / Execution Mode
Default: bar close only (more reliable)
Optional “Early Signal (Repaint Risk)” enables intrabar signals (faster, but may repaint)
Alerts
8X SCALP BUY
8X SCALP SELL
Disclaimer
For analysis/educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always test settings on your own symbols and timeframes.
Educational
Yield Curve RegimesOverview
The Yield Curve Regime Histogram transforms yield curve spread analysis into an intuitive visual framework by classifying rate movements into six distinct regimes. Rather than simply displaying the spread between two maturities, this indicator analyzes how that spread is changing relative to the underlying yields themselves, providing insight into market expectations for growth, inflation, and liquidity conditions.
How It Works
The indicator calculates the spread between two user-selected government bond yields (default: 2-year and 10-year US Treasuries) and compares both the spread and the individual yields to their values n periods ago (default lookback: 20 bars). Based on whether the spread is steepening or flattening, and whether the short-term and long-term yields are rising or falling, the algorithm classifies each bar into one of six regimes:
The Six Regimes
Steepening Regimes (spread increasing):
1. Bull Steepener (Cyan): Both yields falling, long-end falling slower
Market pricing: Growth concerns, but long-end supported
Typically risk-on if Fed not cutting due to severe economic weakness
2. Bear Steepener (Blue): Both yields rising, long-end rising faster
Market pricing: Growth acceleration, inflation pressures building
Typically risk-on regime
3. Steepener Twist (Yellow): Short-end falling, long-end rising
Market pricing: Liquidity injection, mixed growth signals
Neutral/transition regime
Flattening Regimes (spread decreasing):
4. Bull Flattener (Pink): Both yields falling, long-end falling faster
Market pricing: Growth slowdown, disinflation, potential inversion ahead
Typically risk-off regime
5. Bear Flattener (Purple): Both yields rising, short-end rising faster
Market pricing: Central bank tightening, growth concerns emerging
Typically risk-off regime, can lead to inversion
6. Flattener Twist (Orange): Short-end rising, long-end falling
Market pricing: Aggressive policy tightening, recession risk building
Typically risk-off regime, highest inversion risk
Practical Application
By visualizing which regime is active, traders can:
Anticipate risk appetite shifts: Steepening regimes generally coincide with risk-on sentiment, while flattening regimes (especially with falling long-end yields) often precede risk-off periods
Gauge growth and inflation expectations: The combination of spread direction and yield levels reveals what markets are pricing for economic trajectory
Identify liquidity conditions: Twist regimes highlight periods of central bank intervention or significant policy shifts
Time entries and exits: Regime transitions can signal turning points in equity, commodity, and currency markets before they fully materialize in price action
Customization
The indicator offers full flexibility for cross-market analysis:
Maturity selection: Choose any two yield curves (e.g., 2Y/10Y, 5Y/30Y, or international equivalents like German Bunds)
Lookback period: Adjust sensitivity by changing how far back the comparison is made
Color scheme: Customize each regime's color in the Style tab to match your chart preferences
Legend display: Toggle the regime legend table on/off for cleaner visuals
Timeframe: Apply the indicator to any timeframe, from intraday to monthly charts
Display
The spread is plotted as a histogram, with each bar colored according to its regime classification. A black line overlay (also customizable) traces the raw spread value, allowing you to see both the regime structure and the actual spread level simultaneously. An optional legend in the top-right corner provides a quick reference for regime identification.
This indicator is designed to function as a standalone "yield curve dashboard" that can be stacked beneath equity indices, commodities, or FX pairs, helping traders align their positioning with the underlying rates environment without needing to interpret complex macro data manually.
Note: This indicator analyzes government bond yields and is most effective when paired with liquid, benchmark instruments such as US Treasuries, German Bunds, or UK Gilts. Regime classifications reflect market expectations embedded in the yield curve, not guaranteed outcomes.
Gold Profit Target SystemGOLD PROFIT TARGET SYSTEM
Track Real Profits, Exit With Confidence
Best on Daily or Weekly - copy and mod as you see fit. Have fun!
WHAT THIS INDICATOR DOES:
This indicator tracks your gold position from entry and shows color-coded profit targets as the price rises. Instead of guessing when to exit, you see exact profit levels in real-time: 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, and 25%+.
Simple concept: BUY on the signal, SELL at YOUR chosen profit level.
HOW IT WORKS - 3 SIMPLE STEPS:
STEP 1: Wait for BUY Signal
• Green triangle (▲) appears below the composite line
• Triggered when inverse assets (DXY, rates, etc.) show strong correlation and are falling
• Entry price is automatically recorded
• Position tracking begins
STEP 2: Watch Profit Targets Appear
• As gold rises, color-coded symbols appear above the composite line
• Each symbol represents a profit milestone
• The info table shows your current profit
• You decide when to exit based on YOUR target
STEP 3: Exit at Your Chosen Level
• Conservative? Exit at 5-10%
• Moderate? Exit at 10-15%
• Aggressive? Hold for 20%+
• The indicator just shows the levels - YOU make the call
THE COMPOSITE LINE - WHAT IT MEANS:
The main line is a weighted composite of inverse-correlated assets:
• DXY (US Dollar Index)
• Real Interest Rates (10Y TIPS)
• US 10-Year Treasury Yield
• US 2-Year Treasury Yield
• Bitcoin (optional)
• Copper (optional)
Line Position:
• Below -30 (Bright Green): Very strong inverse correlation - excellent BUY conditions
• Below 0 (Green): Inverse correlation present - moderate BUY conditions
• Above 0 (Red): Inverse assets rising - neutral to bearish
• Above 30 (Bright Red): Strong inverse rally - bearish for gold
What Causes BUY Signals:
When the composite line is negative (inverse assets falling) AND shows strong correlation (>0.3), this suggests gold is likely to rise. The indicator records your entry and begins tracking profits.
COLOR-CODED PROFIT TARGETS:
EARLY PROFITS (Green Circles):
• 1% - Very Light Green (#c8e6c9) - First confirmation
• 2% - Light Green (#a5d6a7) - Building profit
• 3% - Green (#81c784) - Good profit
• 4% - Medium Green (#66bb6a) - Strong profit
• 5% - Dark Green (#4caf50) - Solid profit!
EXCELLENT PROFIT (Yellow Diamond):
• 10% - Yellow (#ffd54f) - Double digits, excellent trade!
OUTSTANDING PROFIT (Orange Diamonds):
• 15% - Orange (#ffb74d) - Exceptional profit, consider partial exit
EXCEPTIONAL PROFIT (Red Diamonds):
• 20% - Light Red (#ff8a65) - Rare territory, strong exit consideration
• 25% - Red (#f44336) - Extraordinary profit, very rare!
PEAK PROFIT (Purple Star):
• 25%+ - Purple (#9c27b0) - Once in a blue moon! The home run trade!
STOP LOSS (Red X):
• Default -5% - Protection against losses
• Position auto-resets if stop is hit
THE PROFIT BAR (Histogram):
Below the composite line, you'll see a colored histogram when in position:
Bar Color = Your Current Profit Tier
• Light green bar = 1-2% profit
• Green bar = 3-5% profit
• Yellow bar = 10% profit
• Orange bar = 15% profit
• Red bar = 20-25% profit
• Purple bar = 25%+ profit
• Red negative bar = Currently at a loss
Bar Height = Current Profit %
The taller the bar, the larger your profit. Negative bars extend downward when you're at a loss.
THE INFORMATION TABLE:
The table (top-right by default) shows everything at a glance:
Position: ✓ IN (green) or ✗ OUT (gray)
Shows whether you're currently holding a position
Entry Price: Your recorded buy price
Example: 2,100.50
Current Price: Gold's current price
Example: 2,142.75
Current P/L: YOUR PROFIT %
This is the most important metric - shows exactly how much you're up (or down)
Color matches your current profit tier
Example: +2.01% in light green
Profit Tier: Current milestone reached
Shows which profit level you've hit: "1%", "2%", "5%", "10%", etc.
Next Target: The next profit level to watch
Tells you what milestone is coming up next
Bars Held: How long you've been in the trade
Helps track holding time
Composite: Current correlation strength
Shows the underlying composite correlation value
REFERENCE LINES:
Zero Line (Gray):
The center line. Above = bearish for gold, Below = bullish for gold
Strong Bull Line (Green dashed at -30):
When composite crosses below -30, very strong BUY conditions
Strong Bear Line (Red dashed at +30):
When composite crosses above +30, strong bearish conditions
BACKGROUND SHADING:
Very Light Green Background:
You're in profit (position open and above entry price)
Very Light Red Background:
You're at a loss (position open and below entry price)
No Background:
No position currently open
SYMBOLS ON CHART:
▲ Green Triangle Below Line: BUY SIGNAL
Enter long position here. Entry price recorded.
● Small Green Circles Above Line: 1-5% Profits
Early profit targets. Light green to dark green progression.
◆ Diamonds Above Line: 10-25% Profits
Major profit milestones. Yellow → Orange → Red progression.
★ Purple Star Above Line: 25%+ Profit
The holy grail! Peak profit achieved.
✖ Red X Below Line: STOP LOSS HIT
Trade went against you. Position resets (if auto-reset enabled).
PROFIT-TAKING STRATEGIES:
Strategy 1: Fixed Target (Simple)
Pick one target (e.g., 10%) and always exit there.
Best for: Beginners, disciplined traders
Strategy 2: Scaled Exit (Advanced)
Exit in portions:
• 5% profit → Sell 25%
• 10% profit → Sell 25% (50% total out)
• 15% profit → Sell 25% (75% total out)
• 20%+ profit → Let final 25% ride
Best for: Risk management, maximizing upside
Strategy 3: Trailing Stop
• Hit 10%? Set stop at 5%
• Hit 15%? Set stop at 10%
• Lock in profits while letting winners run
Best for: Trend followers, bull markets
Strategy 4: Adaptive
• Strong uptrend → wait for 15-20%
• Choppy market → exit at 5-10%
• Weakening trend → exit at any profit
Best for: Experienced traders
SETTINGS YOU CAN CUSTOMIZE:
Profit Target Levels:
Change any profit % to match your strategy
• Conservative: Lower targets (0.5%, 1%, 2%, 3%, 5%)
• Aggressive: Higher targets (2%, 5%, 10%, 20%, 30%)
Assets to Include:
• Enable/disable Bitcoin
• Enable/disable Copper
• Toggle which inverse assets to track
Display Options:
• Show all targets or just current tier
• Show/hide profit bar
• Show/hide composite line
• Move table position
Stop Loss:
• Set your risk tolerance (default 5%)
• Enable/disable auto-reset on stop loss
Correlation Periods:
• Adjust for your timeframe
• Hourly: 14/30/60
• Daily: 20/50/100
• Weekly: 10/20/50
ALERTS AVAILABLE:
Set alerts for any profit milestone:
Critical Alerts:
• "BUY Signal" - Entry notification
• "5% Profit Target" - First major milestone
• "10% Profit Target" - Decision point
• "Stop Loss Hit" - Risk protection
Optional Alerts:
• 1%, 2%, 3%, 4% - Early confirmations
• 15%, 20%, 25% - Major milestones
• Individual levels for your strategy
BEST TIMEFRAMES:
Daily Chart (Recommended):
Best for swing traders holding 3-10 days
Use default settings (20/50/100 periods)
Target 5-15% profits
4-Hour Chart:
Good for active swing traders
Adjust periods to 14/30/60
Target 3-10% profits
Hourly Chart:
For day traders and scalpers
Use shorter periods (14/30/60)
Target 1-5% profits
Adjust profit levels lower (0.5%, 1%, 2%, 3%)
WHY THIS INDICATOR IS DIFFERENT:
Most indicators tell you WHEN to enter.
This one tells you WHEN TO EXIT with profit.
Most indicators use vague signals.
This one shows EXACT profit percentages.
Most indicators leave exit decisions to you.
This one gives CLEAR, COLOR-CODED milestones.
Most indicators don't track your P/L.
This one shows your profit in text you can't miss.
QUICK START GUIDE:
1. Add indicator to gold chart (XAUUSD, GLD, GC1!)
2. Wait for green triangle (▲) BUY signal
3. Watch your profit grow in the table
4. Exit when you hit YOUR target (5%, 10%, 15%, etc.)
5. Repeat
That's it. Simple. Effective. Profitable.
IMPORTANT NOTES:
• This is for LONG positions only - not for shorting gold
• Position tracking begins only after a BUY signal
• The indicator shows levels - YOU decide when to exit
• Always use stop losses (default 5% is reasonable)
• Past performance doesn't guarantee future results
• Not financial advice - use for educational purposes
PRO TIPS:
Tip 1: Don't get greedy - 10-15% is an excellent profit for most trades
Tip 2: Purple stars (25%+) are RARE - don't wait for them on every trade
Tip 3: The profit bar color change is your visual cue - green→yellow→orange→red
Tip 4: Combine with resistance levels - "10% profit + resistance = exit"
Tip 5: Set alerts for YOUR target level so you never miss it
Tip 6: The giant P/L number in the table removes emotion from decisions
EXAMPLE TRADE:
Day 1: ▲ BUY signal at $2,100
Table shows: Position ✓ IN | Entry: 2,100
Day 2: Current P/L: +1.8%
First green circle appears (1% target hit)
Table tier: "1%"
Day 4: Current P/L: +5.2%
Dark green circle appears (5% target hit)
Profit bar is dark green
Decision point: Exit 50% here?
Day 7: Current P/L: +10.5%
Yellow diamond appears (10% target hit!)
Table shows: +10.5% in yellow text
Decision point: Exit remaining 50%?
Result: Average exit ~7.5% over 7 days. Excellent swing trade!
WORKS ON:
• Gold Spot (XAUUSD)
• Gold Futures (GC1!)
• Gold ETFs (GLD, IAU)
• Any gold instrument
Inverse Assets Tracked:
• DXY (US Dollar Index)
• Real Interest Rates (TIPS)
• US Treasury Yields (2Y, 10Y)
• Bitcoin (optional)
• Copper (optional)
THE BOTTOM LINE:
Stop guessing when to take profits.
Start SEEING your profit levels in real-time.
The indicator shows you the targets.
YOU choose when to cash out.
That's YOUR edge.
Developed for traders who want clear, actionable profit targets instead of vague signals.
PK_Volume Delta Candles [LuxAlgo]The inside candle colour where the candle color and delta are opposite, has been converted into yellow color.
Pre-Market Levels Monitor - CandleClub (20 Stocks)Monitor 20 stocks simultaneously with automatic breakout/breakdown alerts based on pre-market and previous day levels.
What It Does
This indicator tracks four critical price levels for up to 20 stocks in a single dashboard:
- PMH (Pre-Market High) - Highest price from 4:00 AM - 9:30 AM ET
- PML (Pre-Market Low) - Lowest price from 4:00 AM - 9:30 AM ET
- PDH (Previous Day High) - Previous trading day's high
- PDL (Previous Day Low) - Previous trading day's low
Key Features
✅ Real-time Dashboard - All 20 stocks displayed in a color-coded table
- Green cells = Price above level (bullish)
- Red cells = Price below level (bearish)
- Gray cells = Level not yet broken
✅ Smart Alerts - Automatic notifications when stocks break key levels
- Bullish Breakout: Price breaks BOTH PMH and PDH
- Bearish Breakdown: Price breaks BOTH PML and PDL
- Maximum 2 alerts per direction per stock per day (prevents spam)
✅ Zero Manual Work - Set it and forget it
- Levels auto-update daily at 4:00 AM ET
- Works during pre-market, regular hours, and displays data on weekends
- Edge detection ensures alerts fire only once per break
✅ Fully Customizable
- Choose any 20 US stocks
- Adjustable table position and size
- Sort by total alerts, bullish alerts, or bearish alerts
- Customize session times if needed
How To Use
1. IMPORTANT: Use on a 1-minute chart (required for data batching)
2. Enable "Extended Hours" in chart settings to see pre-market data
3. Configure your 20 ticker symbols in indicator settings
4. Set up TradingView alerts for notifications
Perfect For
- Pre-market traders monitoring multiple stocks
- Day traders tracking breakout opportunities
- Swing traders watching key support/resistance levels
- Anyone who wants automated multi-stock level monitoring
Technical Details
- Pine Script v6 - Latest version for optimal performance
- Optimized batching - Stays under TradingView's API call limits
- 20-stock maximum - Due to request.security() call restrictions (20 stocks × 2 calls = 40 limit)
- TradingView Standard plan or higher required
Alert Examples
"Alert: AAPL Bullish Breakout - Break #1
PMH: $183.25 (broken)
PDH: $181.50 (broken)
Current: $183.75
Time: 10:23:15"
Default Stocks Included
Technology: AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, NVDA, TSLA, NFLX, AMD, INTC
Finance: JPM, BAC, WFC, GS, MS, C
Healthcare: JNJ, UNH, PFE, ABBV, MRK, TMO
Consumer: WMT, HD, MCD
(All symbols are fully customizable)
Settings Overview
- Symbols (1-20): Configure your watchlist
- Session Times: Adjust pre-market/RTH times (Eastern Time)
- Display Options: Table position, cell size, text size, sorting
- Time Zone: All times in Eastern Time (auto-converts to your local time)
Notes
- Alerts limited to 2 per direction per stock to prevent notification spam
- Use 1-minute chart required (batching system needs consecutive bars)
- Enable Extended Hours to capture pre-market data
- Maximum 80 alerts per day possible (20 stocks × 4 alerts max)
Version
1.0 - Initial Release (January 2026)
---
Created by Gautham Kanaparthy
This indicator is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk.
ABCD Strategy (v6 Ready)//@version=6
indicator("ABCD Strategy v7 – MTF S/R Filter", overlay=true, max_lines_count=300, max_labels_count=300)
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
// INPUTS
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
pivotLen = input.int(5, "Swing Strength", minval=2)
bcMin = input.float(0.618, "BC Min Fib")
bcMax = input.float(0.786, "BC Max Fib")
cdMin = input.float(1.272, "CD Min Extension")
cdMax = input.float(1.618, "CD Max Extension")
htfTF = input.timeframe("240", "Higher Timeframe (S/R)")
srLookback = input.int(200, "HTF S/R Lookback")
srTolerance = input.float(0.002, "S/R Zone Tolerance (0.2%)")
showSR = input.bool(true, "Show HTF S/R Zones")
showTargets = input.bool(true, "Show Targets")
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
// HIGHER TF SUPPORT / RESISTANCE
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
htfHigh = request.security(syminfo.tickerid, htfTF, ta.highest(high, srLookback))
htfLow = request.security(syminfo.tickerid, htfTF, ta.lowest(low, srLookback))
srHighZoneTop = htfHigh * (1 + srTolerance)
srHighZoneBottom = htfHigh * (1 - srTolerance)
srLowZoneTop = htfLow * (1 + srTolerance)
srLowZoneBottom = htfLow * (1 - srTolerance)
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
// DRAW HTF ZONES
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
if showSR
box.new(bar_index - 5, srHighZoneTop, bar_index + 5, srHighZoneBottom,
bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 85), border_color=color.red)
box.new(bar_index - 5, srLowZoneTop, bar_index + 5, srLowZoneBottom,
bgcolor=color.new(color.green, 85), border_color=color.green)
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
// SWING DETECTION
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
ph = ta.pivothigh(high, pivotLen, pivotLen)
pl = ta.pivotlow(low, pivotLen, pivotLen)
var float A = na
var float B = na
var float C = na
var float D = na
var int Ab = na
var int Bb = na
var int Cb = na
var int Db = na
if not na(pl)
A := B
Ab := Bb
B := C
Bb := Cb
C := low
Cb := bar_index
if not na(ph)
A := B
Ab := Bb
B := C
Bb := Cb
C := high
Cb := bar_index
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
// ABCD LOGIC
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
ab = math.abs(B - A)
bc = math.abs(C - B)
bcFib = bc / ab
validBC = bcFib >= bcMin and bcFib <= bcMax
bull = C > B
cdMinPrice = bull ? C - bc * cdMin : C + bc * cdMin
cdMaxPrice = bull ? C - bc * cdMax : C + bc * cdMax
inDzone = low <= cdMaxPrice and high >= cdMinPrice
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
// MTF STRUCTURE FILTER
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
nearResistance = close <= srHighZoneTop and close >= srHighZoneBottom
nearSupport = close <= srLowZoneTop and close >= srLowZoneBottom
structureOK =
(bull and nearSupport) or
(not bull and nearResistance)
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
// FINAL D CONFIRMATION
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
if validBC and inDzone and structureOK
D := close
Db := bar_index
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
// TARGETS
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
tp1 = bull ? D + math.abs(D - C) * 0.382 : D - math.abs(D - C) * 0.382
tp2 = bull ? D + math.abs(D - C) * 0.618 : D - math.abs(D - C) * 0.618
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
// DRAW PATTERN
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
if not na(D)
line.new(Ab, A, Bb, B, width=2, color=color.blue)
line.new(Bb, B, Cb, C, width=2, color=color.orange)
line.new(Cb, C, Db, D, width=2, color=color.green)
label.new(Db, D, "D (HTF CONFIRMED)", style=label.style_label_down, color=color.yellow)
if showTargets
line.new(Db, tp1, Db + 12, tp1, color=color.green)
line.new(Db, tp2, Db + 12, tp2, color=color.teal)
alertcondition(validBC and inDzone and structureOK,
"ABCD v7 Confirmed",
"ABCD Pattern confirmed at Higher-Timeframe Support/Resistance — wait for price action.")
Gold Inverse Correlation TrackerGold Inverse Correlation Tracker - Professional Multi-Asset Analysis
What This Indicator Does:
This indicator monitors the real-time correlation between Gold and five key financial assets that historically move inversely (opposite) to gold prices. It displays these relationships across three different timeframes simultaneously, giving you both short-term trading signals and long-term trend confirmation.
The indicator tracks:
US Dollar Index (DXY) - Historical correlation: -0.63
Real Interest Rates (TIPS) - Historical correlation: -0.82 (strongest inverse relationship)
10-Year Treasury Yield - Nominal interest rate proxy
S&P 500 (SPX) - Equity market sentiment (variable correlation)
VIX - Volatility index (optional, flight-to-safety indicator)
Why Inverse Correlations Matter for Gold Trading:
Understanding inverse correlations is critical for gold traders because:
Predictive Power - When assets move opposite to gold consistently, you can use their strength/weakness to predict gold's next move
Hedging Opportunities - Strong inverse correlations let you hedge gold positions by trading the inverse asset
Regime Detection - When correlations break down, it signals a market regime change or increased uncertainty
Confirmation Signals - Multiple strong inverse correlations validate your gold trade thesis
Risk Management - Knowing what moves against gold helps you understand your portfolio's true exposure
The Science Behind the Numbers:
Real interest rates have the strongest inverse correlation to gold (approximately -0.82) because:
Gold pays no yield or dividend
When real rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases
Investors shift to interest-bearing assets when they offer positive real returns
When real rates go negative, gold becomes relatively more attractive
The US Dollar shows strong inverse correlation (approximately -0.63) because:
Gold is priced in US dollars globally
A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers, reducing demand
A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper internationally, increasing demand
Both compete as reserve assets and stores of value
Why the Indicator is Weighted This Way:
Three Timeframe Approach:
Short-term (20 periods) - Captures recent correlation shifts for day trading and swing trading
Medium-term (50 periods) - The primary signal - balances noise reduction with responsiveness
Long-term (100 periods) - Confirms structural correlation trends for position trading
Correlation Thresholds:
Strong Inverse (<-0.7) - Statistically significant inverse relationship; highest confidence for inverse trades
Moderate Inverse (<-0.3) - Meaningful inverse relationship; still useful but less reliable
Weak Inverse (<0.0) - Slight inverse tendency; correlation may be breaking down
Positive (>0.0) - Assets moving together; inverse relationship has failed
How to Use This Indicator:
For Inverse Trading Strategies:
When DXY shows RED correlation (<-0.7), consider shorting DXY when gold is strong
When Real Rates show RED correlation, rising rates = falling gold (and vice versa)
When multiple assets show strong inverse correlation, confidence is highest
For Regime Detection:
All RED = Classic gold market behavior; correlations intact
Mixed colors = Transitional market; be cautious
All GREEN/GRAY = Correlation breakdown; paradigm shift occurring
For Hedging:
Use assets with strong inverse correlation to hedge gold positions
When correlation weakens, reduce hedge size
When correlation strengthens, increase hedge effectiveness
Alert System:
The indicator includes built-in alerts for:
Individual assets crossing strong inverse threshold
Multiple assets simultaneously showing strong inverse correlation (highest probability setup)
Correlation breakdowns that may signal regime changes
Color Guide:
RED - Strong inverse correlation (<-0.7) - Best inverse trading opportunity
ORANGE - Moderate inverse (<-0.3) - Useful but less reliable
YELLOW - Weak inverse (<0.0) - Correlation weakening
GRAY - Weak positive (0.0 to 0.7) - Assets moving together
GREEN - Strong positive (>0.7) - Inverse relationship broken
Recommended Settings:
Day Trading (1H-4H charts):
Short: 14 periods
Medium: 30 periods
Long: 60 periods
Swing Trading (Daily charts):
Short: 20 periods (default)
Medium: 50 periods (default)
Long: 100 periods (default)
Position Trading (Weekly charts):
Short: 10 periods
Medium: 20 periods
Long: 50 periods
Pro Tips:
Watch for divergences - when gold moves but correlations don't confirm
Correlation breakdowns often precede major trend reversals
The Medium-term (50p) correlation is plotted on the chart as your primary reference
Use the Status column for quick assessment of each asset's relationship
Set alerts for "Multiple Strong Inverse" to catch highest-probability setups
Important Notes:
This indicator is designed for Gold charts only (XAUUSD, GLD, GC1!, etc.)
Correlations are not static - they change over time based on market conditions
A correlation of -0.82 means 82% of gold's price movements can be explained by real interest rates
Always combine with other technical analysis and fundamental factors
Past correlations do not guarantee future relationships
Based on Research:
The correlation coefficients used in this indicator are based on peer-reviewed research:
Erb & Harvey (1997-2012): Real rates to gold correlation of -0.82
World Gold Council (2024): US Dollar to gold correlation of -0.63
Multiple academic studies confirming gold's inverse relationship with opportunity cost assets
Use this indicator to trade smarter, hedge better, and understand the macro forces driving gold prices.
Gold Pin Bar Pivot Alerts - FixedThis script is designed for the high volatility of Gold (XAU/USD). It identifies Pin Bars with body less than 30% of the candle's total range, and the candle occuring at a structural Pivot High or Pivot Low
FUND HOUSE 2026This indicator plots a moving averages SMS,EMA,DEMA,VWMA,RMA AND WMA.
WITH different moving averges also FIBONACHI demand area supply area both.
BERNA (Boundary-Encoded Resonance Network Architecture)BERNA — Boundary-Encoded Resonance Network Architecture
BERNA is a research-grade indicator that estimates the remaining structural capacity of the current market regime.
Unlike trend, volatility, or momentum tools, BERNA does not measure price direction — it measures how much of the regime’s internal capacity has already been consumed.
This script implements the BERNA model published on Zenodo (Bülent Duman, 2026).
It is intentionally minimal and uses only OHLC data.
What BERNA measures
BERNA outputs a structural capacity state:
τ = Σ / Θ (normalized structural stress)
Λ = Θ − Σ (remaining structural capacity)
Interpretation:
High Λ / low τ → the regime has structural endurance
Rising τ → capacity is being consumed
τ → 1 (Λ → 0) → rupture proximity (capacity exhaustion)
This makes BERNA a forward-looking structural capacity variable, not a price oscillator.
What is inside this script
This implementation contains the following components:
Efficiency proxy (DERYA-like, but not the full public DERYA)
BERNA uses a simple microstructure efficiency proxy computed as:
E = |close − open| / (high − low)
This is conceptually “DERYA-like” but it is not the full DERYA framework.
No external/public DERYA source code is embedded here.
Standard technical primitives used
This script uses only basic primitives commonly found in technical analysis:
Absolute value and range normalization
Thresholding (regime binning)
Power transform on range (rng^p)
There is no EMA, RSI, MACD, ATR, ADX, Fisher, Kaufman, or other indicator embedded.
All computations are internal and deterministic.
3-state structural regime binning (K = 3)
The efficiency proxy E is discretized into three regimes using user thresholds:
Low efficiency
Mid efficiency
High efficiency
Each regime has its own capacity Θ and stress multiplier β.
Structural stress accumulation (Σ) and rupture proximity
Stress increment is defined as:
dΣ = β · (1 − E) · (range^p)
Σ accumulates inside a regime and is capped by Θ.
In this prototype, Σ resets on regime change by construction (regime-gated accumulation).
The rupture proximity is expressed through τ and Λ.
How to use BERNA
BERNA is designed as a regime-health and fragility overlay, not a buy/sell trigger.
Typical uses:
Detect when an ongoing move is structurally late-stage (τ high, Λ low)
Avoid initiating trades when capacity is nearly exhausted
Compare structural resilience across assets and regimes
Use alongside price/trend/volume systems for context
Do not use BERNA alone as a trading signal.
BERNA tells you “how much structure is left”, not “where price will go.”
Visuals
Efficiency (E) shows the bar-level microstructure efficiency proxy
τ shows normalized structural stress (capacity consumption)
Λ shows remaining structural capacity
Dotted lines mark warning and critical rupture proximity levels
Important notes
BERNA is not RSI, MACD, ATR, ADX, Fisher, Kaufman, or a volatility model
BERNA does not predict price direction
BERNA does not issue entry/exit signals
BERNA is a structural capacity diagnostic
This script does not embed any external/public indicator code; all logic is implemented directly in Pine.
Risk and disclaimer
This script is provided for research and analytical purposes only.
It is not financial advice and must not be used as a standalone trading system.
Markets are uncertain.
All trading decisions and risks remain entirely the responsibility of the user.
BERNA: Boundary-Encoded Resonance Network Architecture
A Structural Failure Theory of Financial Regimes Based on Endogenous Capacity Depletion
Author: Duman, Bülent
Affiliation: Independent Researcher
Reference: zenodo.org
PaisaPani - Nifty Demo PerformanceThis chart shows a market structure view using the PaisaPani framework.
The table visible on the chart is a DEMO performance representation.
This idea does NOT provide live Buy/Sell signals.
🔒 The complete PaisaPani strategy is Invite-Only.
Shared for educational purposes only.
ABCD Strategy (v7 Ready)//@version=6
indicator("ABCD Strategy v7 – MTF S/R Filter", overlay=true, max_lines_count=300, max_labels_count=300)
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
// INPUTS
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
pivotLen = input.int(5, "Swing Strength", minval=2)
bcMin = input.float(0.618, "BC Min Fib")
bcMax = input.float(0.786, "BC Max Fib")
cdMin = input.float(1.272, "CD Min Extension")
cdMax = input.float(1.618, "CD Max Extension")
htfTF = input.timeframe("240", "Higher Timeframe (S/R)")
srLookback = input.int(200, "HTF S/R Lookback")
srTolerance = input.float(0.002, "S/R Zone Tolerance (0.2%)")
showSR = input.bool(true, "Show HTF S/R Zones")
showTargets = input.bool(true, "Show Targets")
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
// HIGHER TF SUPPORT / RESISTANCE
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
htfHigh = request.security(syminfo.tickerid, htfTF, ta.highest(high, srLookback))
htfLow = request.security(syminfo.tickerid, htfTF, ta.lowest(low, srLookback))
srHighZoneTop = htfHigh * (1 + srTolerance)
srHighZoneBottom = htfHigh * (1 - srTolerance)
srLowZoneTop = htfLow * (1 + srTolerance)
srLowZoneBottom = htfLow * (1 - srTolerance)
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
// DRAW HTF ZONES
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
if showSR
box.new(bar_index - 5, srHighZoneTop, bar_index + 5, srHighZoneBottom,
bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 85), border_color=color.red)
box.new(bar_index - 5, srLowZoneTop, bar_index + 5, srLowZoneBottom,
bgcolor=color.new(color.green, 85), border_color=color.green)
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
// SWING DETECTION
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
ph = ta.pivothigh(high, pivotLen, pivotLen)
pl = ta.pivotlow(low, pivotLen, pivotLen)
var float A = na
var float B = na
var float C = na
var float D = na
var int Ab = na
var int Bb = na
var int Cb = na
var int Db = na
if not na(pl)
A := B
Ab := Bb
B := C
Bb := Cb
C := low
Cb := bar_index
if not na(ph)
A := B
Ab := Bb
B := C
Bb := Cb
C := high
Cb := bar_index
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
// ABCD LOGIC
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
ab = math.abs(B - A)
bc = math.abs(C - B)
bcFib = bc / ab
validBC = bcFib >= bcMin and bcFib <= bcMax
bull = C > B
cdMinPrice = bull ? C - bc * cdMin : C + bc * cdMin
cdMaxPrice = bull ? C - bc * cdMax : C + bc * cdMax
inDzone = low <= cdMaxPrice and high >= cdMinPrice
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
// MTF STRUCTURE FILTER
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
nearResistance = close <= srHighZoneTop and close >= srHighZoneBottom
nearSupport = close <= srLowZoneTop and close >= srLowZoneBottom
structureOK =
(bull and nearSupport) or
(not bull and nearResistance)
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
// FINAL D CONFIRMATION
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
if validBC and inDzone and structureOK
D := close
Db := bar_index
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
// TARGETS
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
tp1 = bull ? D + math.abs(D - C) * 0.382 : D - math.abs(D - C) * 0.382
tp2 = bull ? D + math.abs(D - C) * 0.618 : D - math.abs(D - C) * 0.618
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
// DRAW PATTERN
//━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
if not na(D)
line.new(Ab, A, Bb, B, width=2, color=color.blue)
line.new(Bb, B, Cb, C, width=2, color=color.orange)
line.new(Cb, C, Db, D, width=2, color=color.green)
label.new(Db, D, "D (HTF CONFIRMED)", style=label.style_label_down, color=color.yellow)
if showTargets
line.new(Db, tp1, Db + 12, tp1, color=color.green)
line.new(Db, tp2, Db + 12, tp2, color=color.teal)
alertcondition(validBC and inDzone and structureOK,
"ABCD v7 Confirmed",
"ABCD Pattern confirmed at Higher-Timeframe Support/Resistance — wait for price action.")
EMA 6/50 Cross + ADX 20 + AlertsThis indicator is designd to filter noise off the EMA cross with the ADX greater than 20 condition.
BTC - Satoshis Altcoin Graveyard OVERVIEW
The Satoshi's Altcoin Graveyard (SAG) is a macro-statistical engine designed to solve the problem of Survivorship Bias . It is a well-known phenomenon in the crypto markets that the "Top 10" list is in a constant state of flux. If you look at historical data from CoinMarketCap (CMC) year by year, you will see a revolving door of projects that once seemed "too big to fail" disappearing into obscurity. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has remained the undisputed #1 since inception.
While most traders have a "gut feeling" that Altcoins eventually depreciate against Bitcoin, I believe in measuring it and drawing it on a chart for better visibility. By locking in specific "Cohorts" of market leaders from the past, we can track their inevitable decay through the Satoshi Sieve .
THE 13-COIN STATISTICAL BUCKET
To ensure an objective, non-biased audit, each cohort (we look at 2018, 2020 and 2022) is constructed using a fixed market-cap methodology from the snapshot date (excluding stablecoins):
• The Core: The Top 10 non-stablecoin assets at that time by Marketcap.
• The Risk Alpha: Representative samples from the Top #25, #50, and #100 ranks. (By including lower-ranked "riskier" alts, we capture the full statistical decay of the market, not just the "Blue Chips.")
TECHNICAL ARCHITECTURE
This script is engineered to push the boundaries of the Pine Script engine. TradingView enforces a hard limit of 40 unique data requests . By tracking 3 cohorts of 13 assets plus the Bitcoin base, this indicator utilizes exactly 40/40 requests , providing the maximum possible data density in a single chart window.
THE SPS CONCEPT (Survival Probability Score)
The SPS measures the Breadth of Survival . It answers: "How many coins from this year (the year of the snapshot) are actually outperforming BTC?"
We use a binary logic system to determine if a coin is "Winning" or "Losing" against the only benchmark that matters: Bitcoin.
• The Status Formula: Status = Current_Alt_BTC_Ratio >= Entry_Alt_BTC_Ratio ? 1 : 0 . This means: Every single day, at the Daily Close , the script compares the current Alt/BTC ratio to the fixed ratio from the snapshot date. If the coin is worth more in Bitcoin today than it was back then, it is assigned a "1" (a Win). If it has lost value against Bitcoin, it gets a "0" (a Loss).
• The SPS Line: SPS Line = (Sum of 'Wins' / 13) * 100 This means: We add up all the "Winners" for that specific day and turn it into a percentage. For example, if the Aqua line is at 7.69% on your chart, it confirms that on that day , exactly 1 out of the 13 coins was successfully beating Bitcoin, while the other 12 were underperforming.
THE PERFORMANCE MATRIX
In the top-right corner, we provide a Weighted Portfolio Simulation . This answers the financial question: "If I swapped 1 BTC into an equal-weight basket of these 13 coins on the snapshot day, what is my BTC value today?".
• Value < 1.0 BTC: You lost purchasing power compared to holding Bitcoin.
• Value > 1.0 BTC: You successfully achieved "Alpha" over the benchmark.
HOW TO READ THE CHART
• The Waterfall: Lines generally trend downward as the "Satoshi Sieve" filters out assets that cannot maintain their BTC-relative value.
• Dynamic Winners: We dynamically print the names of the current survivors at the tip of each line. If a cohort shows "None," the graveyard is full.
HOW TO READ THE MATRIX
• The BTC Target: Any portfolio value in the matrix below 1.0 BTC represents a failed altcoin rotation.
• Class of 2018: A portfolio value near 0.15 BTC at the current date, means a 85% loss rate.
• Class of 2020: A portfolio value near 0.77 BTC at the current date, means an approx 20 % loss rate.
• Class of 2022: A portfolio value near 0.31 BTC at the current date, means an approx 70% loss rate.
DIFFERENCE FROM AN ALTCOIN INDEX
Standard Altcoin Indexes (like my ALSI Index ) "rebalance" by removing losers and adding new winners. This is deceptive. The Altcoin Graveyard never rebalances . It forces you to watch the "losers" decay, providing a realistic look at the long-term opportunity cost of "Buy and Hold" for anything other than Bitcoin.
CONCLUSION
The data revealed by the Satoshi Sieve leads to a singular, sobering "Lesson Learned": Picking the right coin to outperform Bitcoin is not just difficult—it is statistically improbable over a long-term horizon.
While the "Risk-Reward" of altcoins is often marketed as having higher upside, the Altcoin Graveyard proves that for the vast majority of assets, the reward does not justify the risk of total portfolio erosion in BTC terms.
• The Mathematical Odds: If you picked a Top 10 coin in 2018, your chance of outperforming BTC today is effectively 0%.
• The Rotation Trap: Most investors "HODL" these assets into the graveyard, hoping for a return to previous ATHs that never comes because the liquidity has already moved on to the next "Class" of winners.
The final conclusion is clear: Diversification into altcoins is often just a slow-motion transfer of wealth back to Bitcoin. If you cannot identify the 1-out-of-13 that survives the Sieve, your best risk-adjusted move has historically been to simply hold the benchmark.
DISCLAIMER
This script is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. It is a mathematical study of historical opportunity cost and survivorship bias.
Tags
bitcoin, btc, satoshis graveyard, altseason, dominance, total3, rotation, cycle, index, alsi, Rob Maths, robmaths
NSE Monthly Expiry 2022-26 : Ashish RajoriaThis indicator, "NSE Monthly Expiry Marker 2022-2026", is designed for traders on TradingView to visually track NSE (National Stock Exchange) monthly F&O (Futures & Options) expiry dates from 2022 to 2026. It plots red dashed vertical lines on each expiry date, with labels showing the month, year, and exact date for easy identification. The dates are accurately calculated based on NSE rules: last Thursday for months up to August 2025, and last Tuesday from September 2025 onwards, with holiday adjustments (e.g., shifted if expiry falls on a holiday). Additionally, it includes trading days, holidays in the session, and a link to www.GSTwork.com for reference. Ideal for option traders to plan strategies around expiry cycles, this tool helps in analyzing patterns over multiple years without manual calculations. Note: Ensure your chart timeframe is daily or higher for best visibility.
TruTrend Market Bias FREETruTrend — Market Bias & Signal Indicator (Free)
TruTrend (Free) is a real-time market bias and signal indicator designed to help traders see trend direction and key buy/sell moments with clarity.
This version focuses on core trend structure and momentum shifts, giving you a clean visual read of the market without clutter. Signals update live and are intended to help traders stay on the right side of the move.
TruTrend Free is built to be simple, fast, and easy to use — ideal for traders who want structure without complexity.
What the Free Version Provides
• Market bias (bullish vs bearish)
• Basic buy & sell signals
• Trend structure visualization
• Clean, easy-to-read chart layout
Important Notes
• Signals are real-time and non-repainting
• Designed for general guidance, not trade automation
• Works across all markets and timeframes
Upgrade to Pro / Pro+
For advanced filtering, earlier entries, stronger confirmations, and premium features, check out TruTrend Pro and Pro+.
🔓 Upgrade access: whop.com
Midnight Open Levels by haze!This indicator automatically plots the midnight open prices for both the New York (00:00 EST) and London (00:00 GMT) trading sessions. These levels are widely recognized in institutional trading frameworks as significant reference points for intraday price action.
What Are Midnight Open Levels?
Midnight open levels represent the price at which each major trading session begins at 00:00 local time. Institutional traders and algorithmic systems often reference these levels when making trading decisions, which can create zones of increased liquidity and potential price reactions.
This indicator is provided for educational purposes. No indicator guarantees profitable trades. Always practice proper risk management, use appropriate position sizing, and conduct your own analysis before making trading decisions.
15m RVOL + CPR Screener [AA37Amna5633]relvol and cpr table 4h 15mint relvol and cpr table relvol and cpr table relvol and cpr table relvol and cpr table
FRVP VA Zones + MACD + EMA Ribbon{A37Amna5633}fulemas, frvp, with selectable colours lines, and switch on, off levels, with riboon ema 1,2 box selectable ribbon thicknes ,recomended with ema1with 3, and ema2 with7
FRVP VA Zones + MACD + EMA Ribbon {A37Amna5633} emas, frvp with selectable coulours in the setting, and swtch on/off lines on the chart in the setting with macd chart
Thick Wick OverlayI have a hard time seeing the wick and made a simple overlay indicator to create a "thicker wick". You can change the thickness and wick color to your desired color and thickness.
Volatility Term Structure IndexVolatility Term Structure Index
The Volatility Term Structure Index represents a systematic approach to measuring market stress and complacency through the analysis of volatility derivatives and their term structure relationships. This indicator draws conceptual inspiration from academic research on volatility forecasting and the informational content embedded in options markets.
The theoretical foundation rests on decades of research documenting the relationship between implied volatility patterns and subsequent market returns. Black (1976) first documented the inverse relationship between equity returns and volatility changes, establishing a fundamental principle in financial economics. Whaley (2000) demonstrated how volatility indices reflect aggregate market fear and uncertainty, with systematic patterns preceding major market dislocations. Engle (2004) provided foundational work on volatility modeling that underpins modern risk measurement approaches.
Unlike momentum strategies that follow price trends or contrarian approaches that bet against prevailing sentiment, this indicator operates on regime-identification principles. The relationship between short-term and long-term implied volatility reveals market expectations about risk evolution. When markets expect calm conditions to persist, the volatility term structure typically exhibits an upward slope. When stress emerges, this relationship inverts as near-term uncertainty exceeds longer-term expectations. This structural information reflects the aggregate positioning of sophisticated derivatives market participants.
Methodology and calculation framework
The methodology incorporates statistical normalization techniques that transform raw volatility data into comparable standardized scores. Each component factor undergoes robust z-score calculation using median absolute deviation to reduce sensitivity to outliers, a technique that proves particularly valuable during market stress when traditional standard deviation measures become unreliable. These normalized components aggregate using a weighting scheme informed by historical predictive power and correlation characteristics.
The indicator produces values on a scale from zero to one hundred, where higher readings indicate calm market conditions and lower readings signal elevated stress. Readings above seventy suggest complacent environments where equity markets typically perform well. The zone between forty and seventy represents mixed conditions without strong directional bias. Readings below forty indicate meaningful stress, with values below twenty signaling crisis-level conditions.
Internal quality mechanisms enhance signal reliability by requiring confirmation across multiple underlying factors before generating actionable signals. This reduces the probability of acting on isolated or unreliable readings and improves overall signal consistency.
Professional application and portfolio integration
Professional portfolio managers recognize the value of volatility regime indicators for risk management and tactical allocation. The fundamental insight is empirically robust: periods of low and stable volatility create supportive environments for equities, while regime transitions and elevated uncertainty warrant caution. Bollerslev, Tauchen and Zhou (2009) found that variance risk premium significantly predicts equity market returns, with volatility conditions leading price performance.
For institutional investors, the index serves as one input in risk management frameworks. Asset managers might use deteriorating readings to trigger portfolio review processes, stress testing exercises, or tactical allocation adjustments. The indicator proves valuable when it diverges from consensus narratives, as volatility markets often recognize fundamental shifts before they appear in prices. Systematic investors can incorporate the index as a conditioning variable for position sizing.
This integration finds support in the concept that derivatives markets often lead equity markets. Options market participants including market makers and institutional hedgers frequently possess informational advantages regarding expected market movements and tail risk.
Practical implementation for individual investors
When the index rises into the favorable zone above seventy with confirmed signal quality, volatility conditions support equity exposure. When the index falls below forty, reducing allocations, increasing cash reserves, or implementing protective strategies becomes appropriate. The zone between these thresholds suggests mixed conditions where other analytical frameworks should take precedence.
Individual investors can treat readings as alerts warranting portfolio examination. A favorable reading might prompt consideration of whether current equity exposure aligns with targets. A stress reading could trigger review of risk reduction measures. The indicator should inform rather than dictate decisions, serving as one perspective within a broader analytical framework.
Fundamental investors can use volatility readings to assess whether the risk environment supports their positioning. Technical analysts may find that volatility conditions help contextualize price patterns. Quantitative investors might incorporate volatility factors into multi-factor models.
Trading behavior and strategy characteristics
The index employs a regime-based methodology identifying periods when market conditions favor risk exposure versus caution. The trading logic accumulates positions when volatility conditions indicate calm environments and reduces exposure when conditions deteriorate. This approach positions with prevailing volatility market signals, recognizing that volatility regimes exhibit meaningful persistence.
The indicator may signal favorable conditions while price fluctuations continue. This reflects underlying volatility metrics remaining supportive despite surface-level movements. The strategy maintains exposure during favorable volatility conditions even when prices experience temporary weakness, and advocates caution during volatility deterioration even when prices appear stable. Success requires trust in the underlying signals and acceptance that price action and volatility conditions may temporarily diverge.
Suitability and implementation requirements
The index aligns with investors possessing specific characteristics. A medium to long term horizon proves essential as volatility regimes operate over weeks to months. A risk management orientation that prioritizes avoiding large drawdowns suits the defensive nature during stress periods. Comfort with systematic decision making helps maintain discipline when signals conflict with market consensus.
The indicator proves less suitable for day traders, investors requiring constant market exposure, and those unable to tolerate periods when the indicator conflicts with price trends. Institutional investors with strict benchmark tracking requirements may find the strategy incompatible with their mandates.
For appropriate investors, the index offers a systematic framework for monitoring market conditions. By providing an objective assessment of volatility regime health, it helps recognize environment shifts and consider positioning adjustments. The strategy demands patience and discipline but rewards those characteristics with potential for improved risk-adjusted returns through drawdown reduction during stress periods.
References
Ang, A. and Chen, J. (2002) Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios. Journal of Financial Economics, 63(3).
Black, F. (1976) Studies of stock price volatility changes. Proceedings of the 1976 Meetings of the American Statistical Association, Business and Economics Statistics Section.
Bollerslev, T., Tauchen, G. and Zhou, H. (2009) Expected stock returns and variance risk premia. The Review of Financial Studies, 22(11).
Engle, R. (2004) Risk and volatility: Econometric models and financial practice. American Economic Review, 94(3).
Whaley, R.E. (2000) The investor fear gauge. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 26(3).
