Puell Multiple Variants [OperationHeadLessChicken]Overview
This script contains three different, but related indicators to visualise Bitcoin miner revenue.
The classical Puell Multiple : historically, it has been good at signaling Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms, but due to the diminishing rewards miners get after each halving, it is not clear how you determine overvalued and undervalued territories on it. Here is how the other two modified versions come into play:
Halving-Corrected Puell Multiple : The idea is to multiply the miner revenue after each halving with a correction factor, so overvalued levels are made comparable by a horizontal line across cycles. After experimentation, this correction factor turned out to be around 1.63. This brings cycle tops close to each other, but we lose the ability to see undervalued territories as a horizontal region. The third variant aims to fix this:
Miner Revenue Relative Strength Index (Miner Revenue RSI) : It uses RSI to map miner revenue into the 0-100 range, making it easy to visualise over/undervalued territories. With correct parameter settings, it eliminates the diminishing nature of the original Puell Multiple, and shows both over- and undervalued revenues correctly.
Example usage
The goal is to determine cycle tops and bottoms. I recommend using it on high timeframes, like monthly or weekly . Lower than that, you will see a lot of noise, but it could still be used. Here I use monthly as the example.
The classical Puell Multiple is included for reference. It is calculated as Miner Revenue divided by the 365-day Moving Average of the Miner Revenue . As you can see in the picture below, it has been good at signaling tops at 1,3,5,7.
The problems:
- I have to switch the Puell Multiple to a logarithmic scale
- Still, I cannot use a horizontal oversold territory
- 5 didn't touch the trendline, despite being a cycle top
- 9 touched the trendline despite not being a cycle top
Halving-Corrected Puell Multiple (yellow): Multiplies the Puell Multiple by 1.63 (a number determined via experimentation) after each halving. In the picture below, you can see how the Classical (white) and Corrected (yellow) Puell Multiples compare:
Advantages:
- Now you can set a constant overvalued level (12.49 in my case)
- 1,3,7 are signaled correctly as cycle tops
- 9 is correctly not signaled as a cycle top
Caveats:
- Now you don't have bottom signals anymore
- 5 is still not signaled as cycle top
Let's see if we can further improve this:
Miner Revenue RSI (blue):
On the monthly, you can see that an RSI period of 6, an overvalued threshold of 90, and an undervalued threshold of 35 have given historically pretty good signals.
Advantages:
- Uses two simple and clear horizontal levels for undervalued and overvalued levels
- Signaling 1,3,5,7 correctly as cycle tops
- Correctly does not signal 9 as a cycle top
- Signaling 4,6,8 correctly as cycle bottoms
Caveats:
- Misses two as a cycle bottom, although it was a long time ago when the Bitcoin market was much less mature
- In the past, gave some early overvalued signals
Usage
Using the example above, you can apply these indicators to any timeframe you like and tweak their parameters to obtain signals for overvalued/undervalued BTC prices
You can show or hide any of the three indicators individually
Set overvalued/undervalued thresholds for each => the background will highlight in green (undervalued) or red (overvalued)
Set special parameters for the given indicators: correction factor for the Corrected Puell and RSI period for Revenue RSI
Show or hide halving events on the indicator panel
All parameters and colours are adjustable
Puell
Long Term: Cumulative Moving AverageWho to use?
This indicator is for Long Term Investors or for Position trading and not for Day traders.
What time-frame to use?
• Daily, Weekly or Monthly
What is Blue line?
• Blue line is Cumulative Moving Average. It is cumulative sum of closing price.
• It is a trend reversal level.
• It is a strong support level.
• If price is below Blue line better not to take any Long position until it crosses above it.
What are Red lines?
• Red lines are Multiplier levels.
• These are target levels to exit the position.
• It can be breakout or pull back levels.
• The level combination numbers can be fully odd or even numbers.
• For example in certain stocks the working levels will be 1x, 3x, 5x etc., in others it will be even numbers like 2x, 4x, 6x etc.
• In some cases the levels need to be tweaked with custom decimals like 1.1x, 2.1x, 3.1x, 4.1x etc. to align the support & resistance levels.
How to use?
Entry
• Enter when the Price reach closer to the Blue line.
• Enter Long when the Price takes a pullback or breakout at the Red lines.
Exit
• Exit position when the Price reach closer to the Red lines in Long positions.
Indicator Menu
• Works only in higher time-frames like D, W & M.
• Will not work in Lower time-frames less than "D" or the Launch Date shows wrong in Lower time-frames.
Multipliers:
(Read above What are Red lines?)
Launch Date:
• Launch Date: Starting date of stock when it appeared in the exchange. Works only in D, W & M timeframes.
• Years: Total number of years from the Launch Date. Accurate date will be shown in Daily timeframe.
• Candles Count: Total number of candles from the Launch Date in the current timeframe.
Labels:
• First number is last traded price.
• Second number in () is percentage change from last traded price to that level.
[Maco] PUELL MULTIPLEReverse formulated what the closed source version is and releasing open source publicly to give back to the community.
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