Sigma Spikes [CC]Sigma Spikes were created by Adam Grimes and this is one of the best volatility indicators out there. This indicator not only gives you positive or negative volatility but with my version I can identify any sudden changes from the underlying trend. Buy when the line turns green and sell when it turns red.
Let me know if there were any other indicators you wanted to see me publish!
"Volatility"に関するスクリプトを検索
ATR with MAOVERVIEW
The Average True Range Moving Average (ATRMA) is a technical indicator that gauges the amount of volatility currently present in the market, relative to the historical average volatility that was present before. It adds a moving average to the Average True Range (ATR) indicator.
This indicator is extremely similar to the VOXI indicator, but instead of measuring volume, it measures volatility. Volume measures the amount of shares/lots/units/contracts exchanged per unit of time. Volatility, on the other hand, measures the range of price movement per unit of time.
The purpose of this indicator is to help traders filter between non-volatile periods in the market from volatile periods in the market without introducing subjectivity. It can also help long-term investors to determine market regime using volatility without introducing subjectivity.
CONCEPTS
This indicator assumes that trends are more likely to start during periods of high volatility, and consolidation is more likely to persist during periods of low volatility. The indicator also assumes that the average true range (ATR) of the last 14 candles is reflective of the current volatility in the market. ATR is the average height of all the candles, where height = |high - low|.
Suppose the ATR of the last 14 candles is greater than a moving average of the ATR(14) of the last 20 candles (this occurs whenever the indicator's filled region is colored BLUE). In that case, we can assume that the current volatility in the market is high.
Suppose the ATR of the last 14 candles is less than the moving average of the ATR(14) of the last 20 candles (this occurs whenever the indicator's filled region is colored RED). In that case, we can assume that the current volatility in the market is low.
HOW DO I READ THIS INDICATOR?
If the ATR line is above the ATR MA line (indicated by the blue color), the current volatility is greater than the historical average volatility.
If the ATR line is above the ATR MA line (indicated by the red color), the current volatility is less than the historical average volatility.
VIX-Price Covariance MonitorThe VIX-Price Covariance Monitor is a statistical tool that measures the evolving relationship between a security's price and volatility indices such as the VIX (or VVIX).
It can give indication of potential market reversal, as typically, volatility and the VIX increase before markets turn red,
This indicator calculates the Pearson correlation coefficient using the formula:
ρ(X,Y) = cov(X,Y) / (σₓ × σᵧ)
Where:
ρ is the correlation coefficient
cov(X,Y) is the covariance between price and the volatility index
σₓ and σᵧ are the standard deviations of price and the volatility index
Enjoy!
Features
Dual Correlation Periods: Analyze both short-term and long-term correlation trends simultaneously
Adaptive Color Coding: Correlation strength is visually represented through color intensity
Market Condition Assessment: Automatic interpretation of correlation values into actionable market insights
Leading/Lagging Analysis: Optional time-shift analysis to detect predictive relationships
Detailed Information Panel: Real-time statistics including current correlation values, historical averages, and trading implications
Interpretation
Positive Correlation (Red): Typically bearish for price, as rising VIX correlates with falling markets. This is what traders should be looking for.
Negative Correlation (Green): Typically bullish for price, as falling VIX correlates with rising markets
How to use it
Apply the indicator to any chart to see its correlation with the default VIX index
Adjust the correlation length to match your trading timeframe (shorter for day trading, longer for swing trading)
Enable the secondary correlation period to compare different timeframes simultaneously
For advanced analysis, enable the Leading/Lagging feature to detect if VIX changes precede or follow price movements
Use the information panel to quickly assess the current market condition and potential trading implications
RiskCraft - Advanced Risk Management SystemRiskCraft – Risk Intelligence Dashboard
Trade like you actually respect risk
"I know the setup looks good… but how much am I actually risking right now?"
RiskCraft is an open-source Pine Script v6 indicator that keeps risk transparent directly on the chart. It is not a signal generator; it is a risk desk that calculates size, frames volatility, and reminds you when your behaviour drifts away from the plan.
Core utilities
Calculates professional-style position sizing in real time.
Reads volatility and market regime before position size is confirmed.
Adjusts risk based on the trader’s emotional state and confidence inputs.
Maps session risk across Asian, London, and New York hours.
Draws exactly one stop line and one target line in the preferred direction.
Provides rotating education tips plus contextual warnings when risk escalates.
It is intentionally conservative and keeps you in the game long enough for any separate entry logic to matter.
---
Chart layout checklist
Use a clean chart on a liquid symbol (e.g., AMEX:SPY or major FX pairs).
Main RiskCraft dashboard placed on the right edge.
Session Risk box on the left with UTC time visible.
Floating risk badge above price.
Stop/target guide lines enabled.
Education panel visible in the bottom-right corner.
---
1. On-chart components
Right-side dashboard : account risk %, position size/value, stop, target, risk/reward, regime, trend strength, emotional state, behavioural score, correlation, and preferred trade direction.
Session Risk box : highlights active session (Asian, London, NY), current UTC time, and risk label (High/Med/Low) per session.
Floating risk badge : keeps actual account risk percent visible with colour-coded wording from Ultra Cautious to Very Aggressive.
Stop/target lines : exactly one dashed stop and one dashed target aligned with the preferred bias.
Education panel : rotates core principles and AI-style warnings tied to volatility, risk %, and behaviour flags.
---
2. Volatility engine – ATR with context 📈
atr = ta.atr(atrLength)
atrPercent = (atr / close) * 100
atrSMA = ta.sma(atr, atrLength)
volatilityRatio = atr / atrSMA
isHighVol = volatilityRatio > volThreshold
ATR vs ATR SMA shows how wild price is relative to recent history.
Volatility ratio above the threshold flips isHighVol , which immediately trims risk.
An ATR percentile rank over the last 100 bars indicates calm versus chaotic regimes.
Daily ATR sampling via request.security() gives higher time-frame context for intraday sessions.
When volatility spikes the script dials position size down automatically instead of cheering for maximum exposure.
---
3. Market regime radar – Danger or Drift 🌊
ema20 = ta.ema(close, 20)
ema50 = ta.ema(close, 50)
ema200 = ta.ema(close, 200)
trendScore = (close > ema20 ? 1 : -1) +
(ema20 > ema50 ? 1 : -1) +
(ema50 > ema200 ? 1 : -1)
= ta.dmi(14, 14)
Regimes covered:
Danger : high volatility with weak trend.
Volatile : volatility elevated but structure still directional.
Choppy : low ADX and noisy action.
Trending : directional flows without extreme volatility.
Mixed : anything between.
Each regime maps to a 1–10 risk score and a multiplier that feeds the final position size. Danger and Choppy clamp size; Trending restores normal risk.
---
4. Behaviour engine – trader inputs matter 🧠
You provide:
Emotional state : Confident, Neutral, FOMO, Revenge, Fearful.
Confidence : slider from 1 to 10.
Toggle for behavioural adjustment on/off.
Behind the scenes:
Each state triggers an emotional multiplier .
Confidence produces a confidence multiplier .
Combined they form behavioralFactor and a 0–100 Behavioural Score .
High-risk emotions or low conviction clamp the final risk. Calm inputs allow normal size. The dashboard prints both fields to keep accountability on-screen.
---
5. Correlation guardrail – avoid stacking identical risk 📊
Optional correlation mode compares the active symbol to a reference (default AMEX:SPY ):
corrClose = request.security(correlationSymbol, timeframe.period, close)
priceReturn = ta.change(close) / close
corrReturn = ta.change(corrClose) / corrClose
correlation = calcCorrelation()
Absolute correlation above the threshold applies a correlation multiplier (< 1) to reduce size.
Dashboard row shows the live correlation and reference ticker.
When disabled, the row simply echoes the current symbol, keeping the table readable.
---
6. Position sizing engine – heart of the script 💰
baseRiskAmount = accountSize * (baseRiskPercent / 100)
adjustedRisk = baseRiskAmount * behavioralFactor *
regimeAdjustment * volAdjustment *
correlationAdjustment
finalRiskAmount = math.min(adjustedRisk,
accountSize * (maxRiskCap / 100))
stopDistance = atr * atrStopMultiplier
takeProfit = atr * atrTargetMultiplier
positionSize = stopDistance > 0 ? finalRiskAmount / stopDistance : 0
positionValue = positionSize * close
Outputs shown on the dashboard:
Position size in units and value in currency.
Actual risk % back on account after adjustments.
Risk/Reward derived from ATR-based stop and target.
---
7. Intelligent trade direction – bias without signals 🎯
Direction score ingredients:
EMA stack alignment.
Price versus EMA20.
RSI momentum relative to 50.
MACD line vs signal.
Directional Movement (DI+/DI–).
The resulting Trade Direction row prints LONG, SHORT, or NEUTRAL. No orders are generated—this is guidance so you only risk capital when the structure supports it.
---
8. Stop/target guide lines – two lines only ✂️
if showStopLines
if preferLong
// long stop below, target above
else if preferShort
// short stop above, target below
Lines refresh each bar to keep clutter low.
When the direction score is neutral, no lines appear.
Use them as visual anchors, not auto-orders.
---
9. Session Risk map – global volatility clock 🌍
Tracks Asian, London, and New York windows via UTC.
Computes average ATR per session versus global ATR SMA.
Labels each session High/Med/Low and colours the cells accordingly.
Top row shows the active session plus current UTC time so you always know the regime you are trading.
One glance tells you whether you are trading quiet drift or the part of the day that hunts stops.
---
10. Floating risk badge – honesty above price 🪪
Text ranges from Ultra Cautious through Very Aggressive.
Colour matches the risk palette inputs (High/Med/Low).
Updates on the last bar only, keeping historical clutter off the chart.
Account risk becomes impossible to ignore while you stare at price.
---
11. Education engine & warnings 📚
Rotates evergreen principles (risk 1–2%, journal trades, respect plan).
Triggers contextual warnings when volatility and risk % conflict.
Flags when emotional state = FOMO or Revenge.
Highlights sub-standard risk/reward setups.
When multiple danger flags stack, an AI-style warning overrides the tip text so you can course-correct before capital is exposed.
---
12. Alerts – hard guard rails 🚨
Excessive Risk Alert : actual risk % crosses custom threshold.
High Volatility Alert : ATR behaviour signals danger regime.
Emotional State Warning : FOMO or Revenge selected.
Poor Risk/Reward Alert : risk/reward drops below your standard.
All alerts reinforce discipline; none suggest entries or exits.
---
13. Multi-market behaviour 🕒
Intraday (1m–1h): session box and badge react quickly; ideal for scalpers needing constant risk context.
Higher time frames (1D–1W): dashboard shifts slowly, supporting swing planning.
Asset classes confirmed in validation: crypto majors, large-cap equities, indices, major FX pairs, and liquid commodities.
Risk logic is price-based, so it adapts across markets without bespoke tuning.
15. Key inputs & recommended defaults
Account Size : 10,000 (modify to match actual account; min 100).
Base Risk % : 1.0 with a Maximum Risk Cap of 2.5%.
ATR Period : 14, Stop Multiplier 2.0, Target Multiplier 3.0.
High Vol Threshold : 1.5 for ATR ratio.
Behavioural Adjustment : enabled by default; disable for fixed risk.
Correlation Check : optional; default symbol AMEX:SPY , threshold 0.7.
Display toggles : main dashboard, risk badge, session map, education panel, and stop lines can be individually disabled to reduce clutter.
16. Usage notes & limits
Indicator mode only; no automated entries or exits.
Trade history panel intentionally disabled (requires strategy context).
Correlation analysis depends on additional data requests and may lag slightly on illiquid symbols.
Session timing uses UTC; adjust expectations if you trade localized instruments.
HTF ATR sampling uses daily data, so bar replay on lower charts may show brief data gaps while HTF loads.
What does everyone think RISK really means?
ATR DeltaThe ATR Delta indicator is based on the concept of Average True Range (ATR), which reflects the average price range over a specified period. By calculating the difference between current and previous ATR values, the ATR Delta provides valuable insights into volatility shifts in the market. This information can help traders identify periods of heightened or diminished price movement, enabling them to adjust their strategies accordingly.
The ATR Delta indicator consists of two main calculations:
-- ATR Calculation : The Average True Range (ATR) is calculated using the specified length parameter. It measures the average price range (including gaps) during that period. A larger ATR value indicates higher volatility, while a smaller value indicates lower volatility.
-- ATR Delta Calculation : The ATR Delta is calculated by subtracting the ATR value of the previous bar from the current ATR value. This calculation captures the change in volatility between the two periods, providing a measure of how volatility has evolved.
Positive ATR Delta values indicate an increase in volatility compared to the previous period. It suggests that price movements have expanded, potentially indicating a more active market. On the other hand, negative ATR Delta values indicate a decrease in volatility compared to the previous period. It suggests that price movements have contracted, potentially signaling a calmer or range-bound market.
The ATR Delta indicator uses coloration to visually represent the relationship between the ATR Delta, zero, and a signal line:
-- Green color is assigned when the ATR Delta is positive, above the signal line, and increasing. This coloration suggests a scenario of higher volatility, as the market is experiencing upward momentum in price swings.
-- Red color is assigned when the ATR Delta is negative, below the signal line, and decreasing. This coloration suggests a scenario of lower volatility, as the market is experiencing downward momentum in price swings.
-- Gray color is assigned for other cases when the ATR Delta and signal line relationship does not meet the above conditions.
These colors are reflected in the columns of the ATR Delta as well as the bar coloration.
The ATR Delta indicator includes a signal line, which acts as a reference for interpreting the ATR Delta values. The signal line is calculated as a moving average (EMA) of the ATR Delta over a specified length. It helps smooth out the ATR Delta fluctuations, providing a clearer indication of the underlying trend in volatility changes. When the ATR Delta crosses above the signal line, it may suggest a potential increase in volatility, indicating a market that is becoming more active. Conversely, when the ATR Delta crosses below the signal line, it may suggest a potential decrease in volatility, indicating a market that is becoming less active.
The coloration of the signal line in the ATR Delta indicator helps to differentiate between positive and negative values and provides further insight into market sentiment. When the signal line is positive, indicating increasing volatility, it is colored lime. This color choice reinforces the bullish sentiment and signifies potential opportunities for trend continuation or breakouts. On the other hand, when the signal line is negative, indicating decreasing volatility, it is colored fuchsia. This color choice highlights the bearish sentiment and suggests potential range-bound or consolidation periods. These colors are reflected in the background of the indicator.
The ATR Delta indicator offers several potential applications for traders:
-- Volatility Analysis : The ATR Delta is invaluable for understanding and analyzing volatility dynamics in the market. Traders can observe the changes in ATR Delta values and use them to assess the current level of price movement. This information can help determine the appropriate strategies and risk management approaches.
-- Breakout Strategies : Traders often use the ATR Delta to identify periods of increased volatility, which frequently accompany breakouts. By monitoring the ATR Delta, traders can anticipate potential price breakouts and adjust their entry and exit levels accordingly.
-- Trend Confirmation : Combining the ATR Delta with trend-following indicators allows traders to validate the strength of a trend. Higher ATR Delta values during an uptrend may indicate stronger momentum and a higher likelihood of continuation. Conversely, lower ATR Delta values during a downtrend may suggest a potential consolidation phase or trend reversal.
Limitations :
-- Lagging Indicator : The ATR Delta indicator is based on historical data and calculates the difference between current and previous ATR values. As a result, it may lag behind real-time market conditions. Traders should be aware of this delay and consider it when making trading decisions. It is advisable to combine the ATR Delta with other indicators or price action analysis for a more comprehensive assessment of market conditions.
-- Parameter Sensitivity : The ATR Delta indicator's effectiveness can be influenced by the selection of its parameters, such as the length of the ATR and signal line. Different market conditions may require adjustments to these parameters to better capture volatility changes. Traders should carefully test and optimize the indicator's parameters to align with the characteristics of the specific market or asset they are trading.
-- Market Regime Changes : The ATR Delta indicator assumes that volatility changes occur gradually. However, in rapidly changing market regimes or during news events, volatility can spike or drop abruptly, potentially rendering the indicator less effective. Traders should exercise caution and consider using additional tools or techniques to identify and adapt to such market conditions.
The ATR Delta indicator is a valuable tool for traders seeking to analyze and monitor volatility dynamics in the market. By calculating the difference between current and previous ATR values, it provides insights into changes in price movement and helps identify periods of increased or decreased volatility. Traders can leverage the ATR Delta to fine-tune their strategies, validate trend strength, and identify potential breakout opportunities. However, it is essential to recognize the limitations of the indicator, including its lagging nature and sensitivity to parameter selection. By combining the ATR Delta with other technical analysis tools and applying sound risk management practices, traders can enhance their decision-making process and potentially improve their trading outcomes.
DTR & ATR
Description
This ATR and DTR label is update of Existing Label provided by © ssksubam
Please See Notes on original Script Here :
Original Code is not mine but I have done few code changes which I believe will help everyone who are looking to add more labels together and save space on the chart
ATR & DTR Script is very helpful for Day Traders as I will explain in detail bellow
Following are changes I have incorporated
Previous Label took more space on the charts with Header and Footer.
I removed the Header and moved both DTR vs ATR descriptions on the same line, saving space on the chart.
I updated the code to remove => signs, which are self-explanatory as I will explain below.
I made the label in 1 single compact line for maximum space efficiency and aesthetics.
These changes improve the content's clarity and conciseness while optimizing space on the charts. If you have any further requests or need additional assistance, feel free to let me know!
What Does DTR Signify?
Stock ATR stands for Average True Range, which is a technical indicator used in trading and investment analysis. The Average True Range measures the volatility of a stock over a given period of time. It provides insights into the price movement and potential price ranges of the stock.
The ATR is calculated as the average of the true ranges over a specific number of periods. The true range is the greatest of the following three values:
The difference between the current high and the current low.
The absolute value of the difference between the current high and the previous close.
The absolute value of the difference between the current low and the previous close.
Traders and investors use ATR to assess the potential risk and reward of a stock. A higher ATR value indicates higher volatility and larger price swings, while a lower ATR value suggests lower volatility and smaller price movements. By understanding the ATR, traders can set appropriate stop-loss levels and make informed decisions about position sizing and risk management.
It's important to note that the ATR is not a directional indicator like moving averages or oscillators. Instead, it provides a measure of volatility, helping traders adapt their strategies to suit the current market conditions.
What Does ATR Signify?
The Average True Range (ATR) signifies the level of volatility or price variability in a particular financial asset, such as a stock, currency pair, or commodity, over a specific period of time. It provides valuable information to traders and investors regarding the potential risk and reward associated with the asset.
Here are the key significances of ATR:
Volatility Measurement: ATR measures the average price range between high and low prices over a specified timeframe. Higher ATR values indicate greater volatility, while lower values suggest lower volatility. Traders use this information to gauge the potential price movements and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Risk Assessment: A higher ATR value implies larger price swings, indicating increased market uncertainty and risk. Traders can use ATR to set appropriate stop-loss levels and manage risk by adjusting position sizes based on the current volatility.
Trend Strength: ATR can also be used to assess the strength of a trend. In an uptrend or downtrend, ATR tends to increase, indicating a more powerful price movement. Conversely, a declining ATR might signify a weakening trend or a consolidation period.
Range-Bound Market Identification: In a range-bound or sideways market, the ATR value tends to be relatively low, reflecting the lack of significant price movements. This information can be helpful for range-trading strategies.
Volatility Breakouts: Traders often use ATR to identify potential breakouts from consolidation patterns. When the ATR value expands significantly, it may indicate the beginning of a new trend or a breakout move.
Comparison between Assets: ATR allows traders to compare the volatility of different
How to use DTR & ATR for Trading
Using Average True Range (ATR) and Daily Trading Range (DTR) can be beneficial for day trading to assess potential price movements, manage risk, and identify trading opportunities. Here's how you can use both indicators effectively:
Calculate ATR and DTR: First, calculate the ATR and DTR values for the asset you are interested in trading. ATR is the average of true ranges over a specified period (e.g., 14 days), while DTR is the difference between the high and low prices of a single trading day.
Assess Volatility: Compare the ATR and DTR values to understand the current volatility of the asset. Higher values indicate increased volatility, while lower values suggest reduced volatility.
Setting Stop-Loss: Use ATR to set appropriate stop-loss levels. For example, you might decide to set your stop-loss a certain number of ATR points away from your entry point. This approach allows you to factor in market volatility when determining your risk tolerance.
Identify Trading Range: Analyze DTR to determine the typical daily price range of the asset. This information can help you identify potential support and resistance levels, which are essential for day trading strategies such as breakout or range trading.
Breakout Strategies: ATR can assist in identifying potential breakout opportunities. When ATR values increase significantly, it suggests an expansion in volatility, which may indicate an upcoming breakout from a trading range. Look for breakouts above resistance or below support levels with higher than usual ATR values.
Scalping Strategies: For scalping strategies, where traders aim to profit from small price movements within a single trading session, knowing the typical DTR can help set reasonable profit targets and stop-loss levels.
Confirming Trend Strength: In day trading, you may encounter short-term trends. Use ATR to assess the strength of these trends. If the ATR is rising, it suggests a strong trend, while a declining ATR may indicate a weakening trend or potential reversal.
Risk Management: Both ATR and DTR can aid in risk management. Determine your position size based on the current ATR value to align it with your risk tolerance. Additionally, understanding the DTR can help you avoid overtrading during periods of low volatility.
Combine with Other Indicators: ATR and DTR work well when used in conjunction with other technical indicators like moving averages, Bollinger Bands, or RSI. Combining multiple indicators can provide a mor
ATR Trailing StopATR Trailing Stop (Dynamic Volatility Regimes)
==============================================
This indicator implements an adaptive ATR-based trailing stop for long positions. The stop automatically adjusts based on stock volatility, tightening during fast movements and widening during calm periods. It is designed as a trade management tool to help protect profits while staying aligned with strong trends.
How It Works
------------
* Tracks the highest high over a configurable lookback window and ensures this “top” never moves downward.
* Computes the trailing stop as:**Top – ATR × Dynamic Multiplier**
* The ATR multiplier changes depending on volatility:
* Low volatility → Wide stop (slower trailing)
* Medium volatility → Standard trailing
* High volatility → Tight stop (faster trailing)
* The trailing stop only moves upward; it never decreases.
* If price falls significantly below the stop (default: 5%), the system resets and begins trailing from a new top.
* An optional price-scale label displays:
* Current stop value
* Volatility regime (LOW / MID / HIGH)
* ATR percentage and active multiplier
Alerts
------
Two alert conditions are included:
### Trailing Stop – Near
Triggers when price moves within a user-defined percentage above the stop.
### Trailing Stop – Hit
Triggers when price touches or closes below the stop.
How to Use
----------
1. Add the indicator to any chart (daily timeframe recommended).
2. Configure:
* ATR length
* Lookback bars
* Volatility thresholds
* ATR multipliers
3. Set alerts for early warnings or stop-hit events.
4. Use the stop line as a dynamic risk-management tool to guide exit decisions and protect profits.
Notes
-----
* Designed for long-only trailing logic.
* This indicator does not generate entry signals; it is intended for stop management.
Session-Based Sentiment Oscillator [TradeDots]Track, analyze, and monitor market sentiment across global trading sessions with this advanced multi-session sentiment analysis tool. This script provides session-specific sentiment readings for Asian (Tokyo), European (London), and US (New York) markets, combining price action, volume analysis, and volatility factors into a comprehensive sentiment oscillator. It is an original indicator designed to help traders understand regional market psychology and capitalize on cross-session sentiment shifts directly on TradingView.
📝 HOW IT WORKS
1. Multi-Component Sentiment Engine
Price Action Momentum : Calculates normalized price movement relative to recent trading ranges, providing directional sentiment readings.
Volume-Weighted Analysis : When volume data is available, incorporates volume flow direction to validate price-based sentiment signals.
Volatility-Adjusted Factors : Accounts for changing market volatility conditions by comparing current ATR against historical averages.
Weighted Combination : Merges all components using optimized weightings (Price: 1.0, Volume: 0.3, Volatility: 0.2) for balanced sentiment readings.
2. Session-Segregated Tracking
Automatic Session Detection : Precisely identifies active trading sessions based on user-configured time parameters.
Independent Calculations : Maintains separate sentiment accumulation for each major session, updated only during respective active hours.
Historical Preservation : Stores session-specific sentiment values even when sessions are closed, enabling cross-session comparison.
Real-Time Updates : Continuously processes sentiment during active sessions while preserving inactive session data.
3. Cross-Session Transition Analysis
Sentiment Differential Detection : Monitors sentiment changes when transitioning between trading sessions.
Configurable Thresholds : Generates signals only when sentiment shifts exceed user-defined minimum thresholds.
Directional Signals : Provides distinct bullish and bearish transition alerts with visual markers.
Smart Filtering : Applies smoothing algorithms to reduce false signals from minor sentiment variations.
⚙️ KEY FEATURES
1. Session-Specific Dashboard
Real-Time Status Display : Shows current session activity (ACTIVE/CLOSED) for all three major sessions.
Sentiment Percentages : Displays precise sentiment readings as percentages for easy interpretation.
Strength Classification : Automatically categorizes sentiment as HIGH (>50%), MEDIUM (20-50%), or LOW (<20%).
Customizable Positioning : Place dashboard in any corner with adjustable size options.
2. Advanced Signal Generation
Transition Alerts : Triangle markers indicate significant sentiment shifts between sessions.
Extreme Conditions : Diamond markers highlight overbought/oversold threshold breaches.
Configurable Sensitivity : Adjust signal thresholds from 0.05 to 0.50 based on trading style.
Alert Integration : Built-in TradingView alert conditions for automated notifications.
3. Forex Currency Strength Analysis
Base/Quote Decomposition : For forex pairs, separates sentiment into individual currency strength components.
Major Currency Support : Analyzes USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF, CAD, AUD, NZD strength relationships.
Relative Strength Display : Shows which currency is driving pair movement during active sessions.
4. Visual Enhancement System
Session Background Colors : Distinct background shading for each active trading session.
Overbought/Oversold Zones : Configurable extreme sentiment level visualization with colored zones.
Multi-Timeframe Compatibility : Works across all timeframes while maintaining session accuracy.
Customizable Color Schemes : Full color customization for dashboard, signals, and plot elements.
🚀 HOW TO USE IT
1. Add the Script
Search for "Session-Based Sentiment Oscillator " in the Indicators tab or manually add it to your chart. The indicator will appear in a separate pane below your main chart.
2. Configure Session Times
Asian Session : Set Tokyo market hours (default: 00:00-09:00) based on your chart timezone.
European Session : Configure London market hours (default: 07:00-16:00) for European analysis.
US Session : Define New York market hours (default: 13:00-22:00) for American markets.
Timezone Adjustment : Ensure session times match your broker's specifications and account for daylight saving changes.
3. Optimize Analysis Parameters
Sentiment Period : Choose 5-50 bars (default: 14) for sentiment calculation lookback period.
Smoothing Settings : Select 1-10 bars smoothing (default: 3) with SMA, EMA, or RMA options.
Component Selection : Enable/disable volume analysis, price action, and volatility factors based on available data.
Signal Sensitivity : Adjust threshold from 0.05-0.50 (default: 0.15) for transition signal generation.
4. Interpret Readings and Signals
Positive Values : Indicate bullish sentiment for the active session.
Negative Values : Suggest bearish sentiment conditions.
Dashboard Status : Monitor which session is currently active and their respective sentiment strengths.
Transition Signals : Watch for triangle markers indicating significant cross-session sentiment changes.
Extreme Alerts : Note diamond markers when sentiment reaches overbought (>70%) or oversold (<-70%) levels.
5. Set Up Alerts
Configure TradingView alerts for:
- Bullish session transitions
- Bearish session transitions
- Overbought condition alerts
- Oversold condition alerts
❗️LIMITATIONS
1. Data Dependency
Volume Requirements : Volume-based analysis only functions when volume data is provided by your broker. Many forex brokers do not supply reliable volume data.
Price Action Focus : In absence of volume data, sentiment calculations rely primarily on price movement and volatility factors.
2. Session Time Sensitivity
Manual Adjustment Required : Session times must be manually updated for daylight saving time changes.
Broker Variations : Different brokers may have slightly different session definitions requiring time parameter adjustments.
3. Ranging Market Limitations
Trend Bias : Sentiment calculations may be less reliable during extended sideways or low-volatility market conditions.
Lag Consideration : As with all sentiment indicators, readings may lag during rapid market transitions.
4. Regional Market Focus
Major Session Coverage : Designed primarily for major global sessions; may not capture sentiment from smaller regional markets.
Weekend Gaps : Does not account for weekend gap effects on sentiment calculations.
⚠️ RISK DISCLAIMER
Trading and investing carry significant risk and can result in financial loss. The "Session-Based Sentiment Oscillator " is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice.
- Always conduct your own research and analysis
- Use proper risk management and position sizing in all trades
- Past sentiment patterns do not guarantee future market behavior
- Combine this indicator with other technical and fundamental analysis tools
- Consider overall market context and your personal risk tolerance
This script is an original creation by TradeDots, published under the Mozilla Public License 2.0.
Session-based sentiment analysis should be used as part of a comprehensive trading strategy. No single indicator can predict market movements with certainty. Exercise proper risk management and maintain realistic expectations about indicator performance across varying market conditions.
ADR (Log Scale) with MTF LabelsHere's a detailed presentation of the Average Daily Range (ADR) indicator, with a focus on its advantages compared to the classic ADR, its unique features, utility, and interpretation:
Advantages Compared to Classic ADR
1. Logarithmic Scale: Unlike the classic ADR, which uses a linear scale, this version uses a logarithmic scale for calculations. This approach provides a more accurate representation of relative price movements, especially for assets with large price ranges.
2. Multi-Timeframe Analysis: This enhanced ADR indicator allows traders to view daily, weekly, and monthly ADRs simultaneously. This multi-timeframe capability helps traders understand volatility trends over different periods, offering a more comprehensive market analysis.
3. Optional Smoothing: The inclusion of an optional smoothing feature (using Exponential Moving Average, EMA) helps reduce noise in the data. This makes the indicator more reliable by filtering out short-term fluctuations and highlighting the underlying volatility trend.
4. Information Display Labels: The indicator includes labels that display precise ADR values for each timeframe directly on the chart. This feature provides immediate, clear insights without requiring additional calculations or references.
Utility of the Indicator
1. Volatility Analysis: The ADR indicator is essential for assessing market volatility. By showing the average daily price range, it helps traders gauge how much an asset typically moves within a day, week, or month.
2. Risk Management: ADR levels can be used to set stop-loss points, improving risk management strategies. Knowing the average range helps traders avoid setting stops too close to the current price, which might otherwise be triggered by normal market fluctuations.
3. Setting Realistic Targets: By understanding the average daily range, traders can set more realistic profit targets. This helps in avoiding over-ambitious goals that are unlikely to be reached within the typical market movement.
4. Identifying Entry and Exit Points: The ADR can signal potential entry and exit points. For example, if the price approaches the upper or lower ADR boundary, it might indicate an overbought or oversold condition, respectively.
Interpretation and Examples
1. Increasing Volatility: If the ADR is increasing, it indicates rising market volatility. Traders might adjust their strategies accordingly, such as widening their stop-losses to accommodate larger price swings.
2. Range Breakout: If the price significantly exceeds the daily ADR, it may signal a strong trend or exceptional market movement. Traders can use this information to stay in the trade longer or to anticipate a potential reversal.
3. Mean Reversion: Prices often revert to the ADR mean. A trader might consider mean reversion trades when the price approaches the extremes of the ADR range, expecting it to move back towards the average.
4. Multi-Timeframe Comparison: If the daily ADR is higher than the weekly ADR, it may indicate unusually high short-term volatility. This can be a signal for traders to be cautious or to capitalize on the increased movement.
While the ADR indicator provides valuable insights into market volatility and can significantly enhance trading strategies, it is essential to remember that no indicator is foolproof. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not always indicative of future results. Traders should use the ADR indicator in conjunction with other tools and follow sound risk management practices to protect their capital.
Bollinger Band Width PercentileIntroducing the Bollinger Band Width Percentile
Definitions :
Bollinger Band Width Percentile is derived from the Bollinger Band Width indicator.
It shows the percentage of bars over a specified lookback period that the Bollinger Band Width was less than the current Bollinger Band Width.
Bollinger Band Width is derived from the Bollinger Bands® indicator.
It quantitatively measures the width between the Upper and Lower Bands of the Bollinger Bands.
Bollinger Bands® is a volatility-based indicator.
It consists of three lines which are plotted in relation to a security's price.
The Middle Line is typically a Simple Moving Average.
The Upper and Lower Bands are typically 2 standard deviations above, and below the SMA (Middle Line).
Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index, measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns.
The Broad Concept :
Quoting Tradingview specifically for commonly noted limitations of the BBW indicator which I have based this indicator on....
“ Bollinger Bands Width (BBW) outputs a Percentage Difference between the Upper Band and the Lower Band.
This value is used to define the narrowness of the bands.
What needs to be understood however is that a trader cannot simply look at the BBW value and determine if the Band is truly narrow or not.
The significance of an instruments relative narrowness changes depending on the instrument or security in question.
What is considered narrow for one security may not be for another.
What is considered narrow for one security may even change within the scope of the same security depending on the timeframe.
In order to accurately gauge the significance of a narrowing of the bands, a technical analyst will need to research past BBW fluctuations and price performance to increase trading accuracy. ”
Here I present the Bollinger Band Width Percentile as a refinement of the BBW to somewhat overcome the limitations cited above.
Much of the work researching past BBW fluctuations, and making relative comparisons is done naturally by calculating the Bollinger Band Width Percentile.
This calculation also means that it can be read in a similar fashion across assets, greatly simplifying the interpretation of it.
Plotted Components of the Bollinger Band Width Percentile indicator :
Scale High
Mid Line
Scale Low
BBWP plot
Moving Average 1
Moving Average 2
Extreme High Alert
Extreme Low Alert
Bollinger Band Width Percentile Properties:
BBWP Length
The time period to be used in calculating the Moving average which creates the Basis for the BBW component of the BBWP.
Basis Type
The type of moving average to be used as the Basis for the BBW component of the BBWP.
BBWP Lookback
The lookback period to be used in calculating the BBWP itself.
BBWP Plot settings
The BBWP plot settings give a choice between a user defined solid color, and a choice of "Blue Green Red", or "Blue Red" spectrum palettes.
Moving Averages
Has 2 Optional User definable and adjustable moving averages of the BBWP.
Visual Alerts
Optional User adjustable High and low Signal columns.
How to read the BBWP :
A BBWP read of 95 % ... means that the current BBW level is greater than 95% of the lookback period.
A BBWP read of 5 % .... means that the current BBW level is lower than 95% of the lookback period.
Proposed interpretations :
When the BBWP gets above 90 % and particularly when it hits 100% ... this can be a signal that volatility is reaching a maximum and that a macro High or Low is about to be set.
When the BBWP gets below 10 % and particularly when it hits 0% ...... this can be a signal that volatility is reaching a minimum and that there could be a violent range breakout into a trending move.
When the BBWP hits a low level < 5 % and then gets above its moving average ...... this can be an early signal that a consolidation phase is ending and a trending move is beginning.
When the BBWP hits a high level > 95 % and then falls below its moving average ... this can be an early signal that a trending move is ending and a consolidation phase is beginning.
Essential knowledge :
The BBWP was designed with the daily timeframe in mind, but technical analysists may find use for it on other time frames also.
High and Low BBWP readings do not entail any direction bias.
Deeper Concepts :
In finance, “mean reversion” is the assumption that a financial instrument's price will tend to move towards the average price over time.
If we apply that same logic to volatility as represented here by the Bollinger band width percentile, the assumption is that the Bollinger band width percentile will tend to contract from extreme highs, and expand from extreme lows over time corresponding to repeated phases of contraction and expansion of volatility.
It is clear that for most assets there are periods of directional trending behavior followed by periods of “consolidation” ( trading sideways in a range ).
This often ends with a tightening range under reducing volume and volatility ( popularly known as “the squeeze” ).
The squeeze typically ends with a “breakout” from the range characterized by a rapid increase in volume, and volatility when price action again trends directionally, and the cycle repeats.
Typical Use Cases :
The Bollinger Band Width Percentile may be especially useful for Options traders, as it can provide a bias for when Options are relatively expensive, or inexpensive from a Volatility (Vega) perspective.
When the Bollinger Band Width Percentile is relatively high ( 85 percentile or above ) it may be more advantageous to be a net seller of Vega.
When the Bollinger Band Width Percentile is relatively low ( 15 percentile or below ) it may be advantageous to be net long Vega.
Here we examine a number of actionable signals on BTCUSD daily timeframe using the BBWP and a momentum oscillator ( using the TSI here but can equally be used with Bollinger bands, moving averages, or the traders preferred momentum oscillator ).
In this first case we will examine how a spot trader and an options trader could each use a low BBWP read to alert them to a good potential trade setup.
note: using a period of 30 for both the Bollinger bands and the BBWP period ( approximately a month ) and a BBWP lookback of 350 ( approximately a year )
As we see the Bollinger Bands have gradually contracted while price action trended down and the BBWP also fell consistently while below its moving average ( denoting falling volatility ) down to an extremely low level <5% until it broke above its moving average along with a break of range to the upside ( signaling the end of the consolidation at a low level and the beginning of a new trending move to the upside with expanding volatility).
In this next case we will continue to follow the price action presuming that the traders have taken or locked in profit at reasonable take profit levels from the previous trade setup.
Here we see the contraction of the Bollinger bands, and the BBWP alongside price action breaking below the BB Basis giving a warning that the trending move to the upside is likely over.
We then see the BBWP rising and getting above its moving average while price action fails to get above the BB Basis, likewise the TSI fails to get above its signal line and actually crosses below its zeroline.
The trader would normally take this as a signal that the next trending move could be to the downside.
The next trending move turns out to be a dramatic downside move which causes the BBWP to hit 100% signaling that volatility is likely to hit a maximum giving good opportunities for profitable trades to the skilled trader as outlined.
Limitations :
Here we will look at 2 cases where blindly taking BBWP signals could cause the trader to take a failed trade.
In this first example we will look at blindly taking a low volatility options trade
Low Volatility and corresponding low BBWP levels do not automatically mean there has to be expansion immediately, these periods of extreme low volatility can go on for quite some time.
In this second example we will look at blindly taking a high volatility spot short trade
High volatility and corresponding high BBWP levels do not automatically mean there has to be a macro high and contraction of volatility immediately, these periods of extreme high volatility can also go on for quite some time, hence the famous saying "The trend is your friend until the end of the trend" and lesser well known, but equally valid saying "never try to short the top of a parabolic blow off top"
Markets are variable and past performance is no guarantee of future results, this is not financial advice, I am not a financial advisor.
Final thoughts
The BBWP is an improvement over the BBW in my opinion, and is a novel, and useful addition to a Technical Analysts toolkit.
It is not a standalone indicator and is meant to be used in conjunction with other tools for direction bias, and Good Risk Management to base sound trades off.
John Bollinger has suggested using Bolliger bands, and its related indicators with two or three other non-correlated indicators that provide more direct market signals.
He believes it is crucial to use indicators based on different types of data.
Some of his favored technical techniques are moving average divergence/convergence (MACD), on-balance volume and relative strength index (RSI).
Thanks
Massive respect to John Bollinger, long-time technician of the markets, and legendary creator of both the Bollinger Bands® in the 1980´s, and the Bollinger band Width indicator in 2010 which this indicator is based on.
His work continues to inspire, decades after he brought the original Bollinger Bands to the market.
Much respect also to Eric Crown who gave me the fundamental knowledge of Technical Analysis, and Options trading.
QUANT TRADING ENGINE [PointAlgo]Quant Trading Engine is a quantitative market-analysis indicator that combines multiple statistical factors to study trend behavior, mean reversion, volatility, execution efficiency, and market stability.
The indicator converts raw price behavior into standardized signals to help evaluate directional bias and risk conditions in a systematic way.
This script focuses on factor alignment and regime awareness, not prediction certainty.
Design Philosophy
Markets move through different regimes such as trending, ranging, volatile expansion, and instability.
This indicator attempts to model these regimes by blending:
Momentum strength
Mean-reversion pressure
Volatility risk
Trend filtering
Execution context (VWAP)
Correlation structure
Each component is normalized and combined into a single Quant Alpha framework.
Factor Construction
1. Momentum Factor
Measures directional strength using percentage price change over a rolling window.
Standardized using mean and standard deviation.
Represents trend continuation pressure.
2. Mean Reversion Factor
Measures deviation from a longer moving average.
Standardized to identify stretched conditions.
Designed to capture counter-trend behavior.
Directional Clamping
Mean-reversion signals are dynamically restricted:
No counter-trend buying during downtrends.
No counter-trend selling during uptrends.
Allows both sides only in neutral regimes.
This prevents conflicting signals in strong trends.
3. Volatility Factor
Uses realized volatility derived from price changes.
Penalizes environments where volatility deviates significantly from its norm.
Acts as a risk adjustment rather than a directional driver.
4. Composite Quant Alpha
The final Quant Alpha is a weighted blend of:
Momentum
Mean reversion (trend-clamped)
Volatility risk
The composite is standardized into a Z-score, allowing consistent interpretation across instruments and timeframes.
Signal Logic
Buy signal occurs when Quant Alpha crosses above zero.
Sell signal occurs when Quant Alpha crosses below zero.
Zero-cross logic is used to represent shifts from negative to positive statistical bias and vice versa.
Signals reflect statistical regime change, not trade instructions.
Volatility Smile Context
Measures price deviation from its statistical distribution.
Identifies skewed conditions where upside or downside volatility becomes dominant.
Highlights extreme deviations that may imply elevated derivative risk.
Exotic Risk Conditions
Detects sudden price expansion combined with volatility spikes.
Highlights environments where execution and risk become unstable.
Visual background cues are used for awareness only.
Execution Context (VWAP)
Measures price distance from VWAP.
Used to assess execution efficiency rather than direction.
Helps identify stretched conditions relative to average traded price.
Correlation Structure
Evaluates short-term return correlations.
Detects when price behavior becomes less predictable.
Flags structural instability rather than trend direction.
Visualization
The indicator plots:
Quant Alpha (scaled) with directional coloring
Volatility smile deviation
Price vs VWAP distance
Correlation structure
Signal markers indicate Quant Alpha zero-cross events and risk conditions.
Dashboard
A compact dashboard summarizes:
Trend filter state
Quant Alpha polarity and value
Individual factor readings
Current action state (Buy / Sell / Wait / Risk)
The dashboard provides a real-time snapshot of internal model conditions.
Usage Notes
Designed for analytical interpretation and research.
Best used alongside price action and risk management tools.
Factor behavior depends on instrument liquidity and volatility.
Not optimized for illiquid or irregular markets.
Disclaimer
This script is provided for educational and analytical purposes only.
It does not provide financial, investment, or trading advice.
All outputs should be independently validated before making any trading decisions.
Average True Range ShiftThis indicator builds on the idea of the Average True Range (ATR) as a way of measuring volatility. It uses two different ATRs to show a shift in market volatility.
It is mainly composed of two moving averages of ATR. One fast moving, which looks back at the previous 5 periods. One slow moving, which looks back at the previous 21 periods. Both ATRs have been normalized (show percentage instead of an absolute amount). The third component of this indicator is the histogram that is created by subtracting the slow moving average, from the fast moving average.
By having two ATRs of different lengths, traders can see how short term volatility compares to long term volatility, and how it is shifting over time. When the fast-moving crosses above the slow-moving, it will show a positive value on the histogram, meaning that short term volatility is increasing and higher than normal. When it crosses below, it will show a negative value on the histogram, meaning that short term volatility is decreasing, and lower than normal.
There are a variety of ways to utilize this indicator, and it will work in most markets. I find it is best to analyze macro market conditions on daily charts and above, rather than micro intraday moves.
Hurst Exponent Adaptive Filter (HEAF) [PhenLabs]📊 PhenLabs - Hurst Exponent Adaptive Filter (HEAF)
Version: PineScript™ v6
📌 Description
The Hurst Exponent Adaptive Filter (HEAF) is an advanced Pine Script indicator designed to dynamically adjust moving average calculations based on real time market regimes detected through the Hurst Exponent. The intention behind the creation of this indicator was not a buy/sell indicator but rather a tool to help sharpen traders ability to distinguish regimes in the market mathematically rather than guessing. By analyzing price persistence, it identifies whether the market is trending, mean-reverting, or exhibiting random walk behavior, automatically adapting the MA length to provide more responsive alerts in volatile conditions and smoother outputs in stable ones. This helps traders avoid false signals in choppy markets and capitalize on strong trends, making it ideal for adaptive trading strategies across various timeframes and assets.
Unlike traditional moving averages, HEAF incorporates fractal dimension analysis via the Hurst Exponent to create a self-tuning filter that evolves with market conditions. Traders benefit from visual cues like color coded regimes, adaptive bands for volatility channels, and an information panel that suggests appropriate strategies, enhancing decision making without constant manual adjustments by the user.
🚀 Points of Innovation
Dynamic MA length adjustment using Hurst Exponent for regime-aware filtering, reducing lag in trends and noise in ranges.
Integrated market regime classification (trending, mean-reverting, random) with visual and alert-based notifications.
Customizable color themes and adaptive bands that incorporate ATR for volatility-adjusted channels.
Built-in information panel providing real-time strategy recommendations based on detected regimes.
Power sensitivity parameter to fine-tune adaptation aggressiveness, allowing personalization for different trading styles.
Support for multiple MA types (EMA, SMA, WMA) within an adaptive framework.
🔧 Core Components
Hurst Exponent Calculation: Computes the fractal dimension of price series over a user-defined lookback to detect market persistence or anti-persistence.
Adaptive Length Mechanism: Maps Hurst values to MA lengths between minimum and maximum bounds, using a power function for sensitivity control.
Moving Average Engine: Applies the chosen MA type (EMA, SMA, or WMA) to the adaptive length for the core filter line.
Adaptive Bands: Creates upper and lower channels using ATR multiplied by a band factor, scaled to the current adaptive length.
Regime Detection: Classifies market state with thresholds (e.g., >0.55 for trending) and triggers alerts on regime changes.
Visualization System: Includes gradient fills, regime-colored MA lines, and an info panel for at-a-glance insights.
🔥 Key Features
Regime-Adaptive Filtering: Automatically shortens MA in mean-reverting markets for quick responses and lengthens it in trends for smoother signals, helping traders stay aligned with market dynamics.
Custom Alerts: Notifies on regime shifts and band breakouts, enabling timely strategy adjustments like switching to trend-following in bullish regimes.
Visual Enhancements: Color-coded MA lines, gradient band fills, and an optional info panel that displays market state and trading tips, improving chart readability.
Flexible Settings: Adjustable lookback, min/max lengths, sensitivity power, MA type, and themes to suit various assets and timeframes.
Band Breakout Signals: Highlights potential overbought/oversold conditions via ATR-based channels, useful for entry/exit timing.
🎨 Visualization
Main Adaptive MA Line: Plotted with regime-based colors (e.g., green for trending) to visually indicate market state and filter position relative to price.
Adaptive Bands: Upper and lower lines with gradient fills between them, showing volatility channels that widen in random regimes and tighten in trends.
Price vs. MA Fills: Color-coded areas between price and MA (e.g., bullish green above MA in trending modes) for quick trend strength assessment.
Information Panel: Top-right table displaying current regime (e.g., "Trending Market") and strategy suggestions like "Follow trends" or "Trade ranges."
📖 Usage Guidelines
Core Settings
Hurst Lookback Period
Default: 100
Range: 20-500
Description: Sets the period for Hurst Exponent calculation; longer values provide more stable regime detection but may lag, while shorter ones are more responsive to recent changes.
Minimum MA Length
Default: 10
Range: 5-50
Description: Defines the shortest possible adaptive MA length, ideal for fast responses in mean-reverting conditions.
Maximum MA Length
Default: 200
Range: 50-500
Description: Sets the longest adaptive MA length for smoothing in strong trends; adjust based on asset volatility.
Sensitivity Power
Default: 2.0
Range: 1.0-5.0
Description: Controls how aggressively the length adapts to Hurst changes; higher values make it more sensitive to regime shifts.
MA Type
Default: EMA
Options: EMA, SMA, WMA
Description: Chooses the moving average calculation method; EMA is more responsive, while SMA/WMA offer different weighting.
🖼️ Visual Settings
Show Adaptive Bands
Default: True
Description: Toggles visibility of upper/lower bands for volatility channels.
Band Multiplier
Default: 1.5
Range: 0.5-3.0
Description: Scales band width using ATR; higher values create wider channels for conservative signals.
Show Information Panel
Default: True
Description: Displays regime info and strategy tips in a top-right panel.
MA Line Width
Default: 2
Range: 1-5
Description: Adjusts thickness of the main MA line for better visibility.
Color Theme
Default: Blue
Options: Blue, Classic, Dark Purple, Vibrant
Description: Selects color scheme for MA, bands, and fills to match user preferences.
🚨 Alert Settings
Enable Alerts
Default: True
Description: Activates notifications for regime changes and band breakouts.
✅ Best Use Cases
Trend-Following Strategies: In detected trending regimes, use the adaptive MA as a trailing stop or entry filter for momentum trades.
Range Trading: During mean-reverting periods, monitor band breakouts for buying dips or selling rallies within channels.
Risk Management in Random Markets: Reduce exposure when random walk is detected, using tight stops suggested in the info panel.
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Apply on higher timeframes for regime confirmation, then drill down to lower ones for entries.
Volatility-Based Entries: Use upper/lower band crossovers as signals in adaptive channels for overbought/oversold trades.
⚠️ Limitations
Lagging in Transitions: Regime detection may delay during rapid market shifts, requiring confirmation from other tools.
Not a Standalone System: Best used in conjunction with other indicators; random regimes can lead to whipsaws if traded aggressively.
Parameter Sensitivity: Optimal settings vary by asset and timeframe, necessitating backtesting.
💡 What Makes This Unique
Hurst-Driven Adaptation: Unlike static MAs, it uses fractal analysis to self-tune, providing regime-specific filtering that's rare in standard indicators.
Integrated Strategy Guidance: The info panel offers actionable tips tied to regimes, bridging analysis and execution.
Multi-Regime Visualization: Combines adaptive bands, colored fills, and alerts in one tool for comprehensive market state awareness.
🔬 How It Works
Hurst Exponent Computation:
Calculates log returns over the lookback period to derive the rescaled range (R/S) ratio.
Normalizes to a 0-1 value, where >0.55 indicates trending, <0.45 mean-reverting, and in-between random.
Length Adaptation:
Maps normalized Hurst to an MA length via a power function, clamping between min and max.
Applies the selected MA type to close prices using this dynamic length.
Visualization and Signals:
Plots the MA with regime colors, adds ATR-based bands, and fills areas for trend strength.
Triggers alerts on regime changes or band crosses, with the info panel suggesting strategies like momentum riding in trends.
💡 Note:
For optimal results, backtest settings on your preferred assets and combine with volume or momentum indicators. Remember, no indicator guarantees profits—use with proper risk management. Access premium features and support at PhenLabs.
VIX Bars [CrossTrade]In simple terms, this indicator colors your chart bars based on the VIX levels. We know that high volatility is unstainable and will naturally regress to a calmer market, therefore highlighting the bars where VIX is at extreme highs can sometimes indicate a market turning point. Consider pairing this indicator with my VIX Heatmap indicator for a complete picture of volatility.
Customizable VIX Levels: You can set your own thresholds for when the bars turn green or red. Green bars pop up when the VIX is above your set upper level (default is 30) - kind of like a heads-up that things might get bumpy. Red bars show up when the VIX dips below your lower threshold (default is 15), signaling calmer waters.
Optional Donchian Channel Filter: The Donchian Channel filter looks at the highest highs and lowest lows over your chosen period (default's 52 days) and only colors the bars if they match the filter's criteria. This adds an extra layer of confirmation that the colored bars at at a major high or low.
Visual Simplicity: The indicator keeps things visually straightforward. No cluttered screen, just colored bars telling you a story about market vibes. Alert come standard to signal those potential bottom or top bars based on the VIX being at your preferred extreme levels.
In essence, "VIX Bars" is like having a volatility radar on your chart. It doesn't make predictions, but it sure gives you a neat, color-coded heads-up on market sentiment. Great for adding an extra dimension to your analysis without getting all tangled up in complex indicators!
ATR BandsThe ATR Bands indicator is a volatility-based tool that plots dynamic support and resistance levels around the price using the Average True Range (ATR). It consists of two bands:
Upper Band: Calculated as current price + ATR, representing an upper volatility threshold.
Lower Band: Calculated as current price - ATR, serving as a lower volatility threshold.
Key Features:
✅ Measures Volatility: Expands and contracts based on market volatility.
✅ Dynamic Support & Resistance: Helps identify potential breakout or reversal zones.
✅ Customizable Smoothing: Supports multiple moving average methods (RMA, SMA, EMA, WMA) for ATR calculation.
How to Use:
Trend Confirmation: If the price consistently touches or exceeds the upper band, it may indicate strong bullish momentum.
Reversal Signals: A price approaching the lower band may suggest a potential reversal or increased selling pressure.
Volatility Assessment: Wide bands indicate high volatility, while narrow bands suggest consolidation.
This indicator is useful for traders looking to incorporate volatility-based strategies into their trading decisions
Trend Analysis with Volatility and MomentumVolatility and Momentum Trend Analyzer
The Volatility and Momentum Trend Analyzer is a multi-faceted TradingView indicator designed to provide a comprehensive analysis of market trends, volatility, and momentum. It incorporates key features to identify trend direction (uptrend, downtrend, or sideways), visualize weekly support and resistance levels, and offer a detailed assessment of market strength and activity. Below is a breakdown of its functionality:
1. Input Parameters
The indicator provides customizable settings for precision and adaptability:
Volatility Lookback Period: Configurable period (default: 14) for calculating Average True Range (ATR), which measures market volatility.
Momentum Lookback Period: Configurable period (default: 14) for calculating the Rate of Change (ROC), which measures the speed and strength of price movements.
Support/Resistance Lookback Period: Configurable period (default: 7 weeks) to determine critical support and resistance levels based on weekly high and low prices.
2. Volatility Analysis (ATR)
The Average True Range (ATR) is calculated to quantify the market's volatility:
What It Does: ATR measures the average range of price movement over the specified lookback period.
Visualization: Plotted as a purple line in a separate panel below the price chart, with values amplified (multiplied by 10) for better visibility.
3. Momentum Analysis (ROC)
The Rate of Change (ROC) evaluates the momentum of price movements:
What It Does: ROC calculates the percentage change in closing prices over the specified lookback period, indicating the strength and direction of market moves.
Visualization: Plotted as a yellow line in a separate panel below the price chart, with values amplified (multiplied by 10) for better visibility.
4. Trend Detection
The indicator identifies the current market trend based on momentum and the position of the price relative to its moving average:
Uptrend: Occurs when momentum is positive, and the closing price is above the simple moving average (SMA) of the specified lookback period.
Downtrend: Occurs when momentum is negative, and the closing price is below the SMA.
Sideways Trend: Occurs when neither of the above conditions is met.
Visualization: The background of the price chart changes color to reflect the detected trend:
Green: Uptrend.
Red: Downtrend.
Gray: Sideways trend.
5. Weekly Support and Resistance
Critical levels are calculated based on weekly high and low prices:
Support: The lowest price observed over the last specified number of weeks.
Resistance: The highest price observed over the last specified number of weeks.
Visualization:
Blue Line: Indicates the support level.
Orange Line: Indicates the resistance level.
Both lines are displayed on the main price chart, dynamically updating as new data becomes available.
6. Alerts
The indicator provides configurable alerts for trend changes, helping traders stay informed without constant monitoring:
Uptrend Alert: Notifies when the market enters an uptrend.
Downtrend Alert: Notifies when the market enters a downtrend.
Sideways Alert: Notifies when the market moves sideways.
7. Key Use Cases
Trend Following: Identify and follow the dominant trend to capitalize on sustained price movements.
Volatility Assessment: Measure market activity to determine potential breakouts or quiet consolidation phases.
Support and Resistance: Highlight key levels where price is likely to react, assisting in decision-making for entries, exits, or stop-loss placement.
Momentum Tracking: Gauge the strength and speed of price moves to validate trends or anticipate reversals.
8. Visualization Summary
Main Chart:
Background color-coded for trend direction (green, red, gray).
Blue and orange lines for weekly support and resistance.
Lower Panels:
Purple line for volatility (ATR).
Yellow line for momentum (ROC).
I11L - Risk Adjusted LeveragingThis trading system, called "I11L - Risk Adjusted Leveraging", is designed to manage trades based on the current market volatility relative to its historical average. The system calculates the target number of open trades based on the ATR (Average True Range) indicator and adjusts the leverage accordingly. The system opens and closes trades using a pyramiding approach, allowing multiple positions to be opened at the same time.
Here's a step-by-step explanation of the system:
1. Calculate the ATR with a 14-day period and normalize it by dividing it by the current closing price.
2. Calculate the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) of the normalized ATR.
3. Calculate the ratio of the normalized ATR to its 100-day SMA.
4. Determine the target leverage based on the inverse of the ratio (2 / ratio).
5. Calculate the target number of open trades by multiplying the target leverage by 5.
6. Plot the target number of open trades and the current number of open trades on the chart.
7. Check if there's an opportunity to buy (if the current number of open trades is less than the target) or close a trade (if the current number of open trades is more than the target plus 1).
8. If there's an opportunity to buy, open a long trade and add the trade's name to the openTrades array.
9. If there's an opportunity to close a trade and there are trades in the openTrades array, close the most recent trade by referencing the array and remove it from the array.
This system aims to capture trends in the market by dynamically adjusting the number of open trades and leverage based on the market's volatility. It uses an array to keep track of open trades, allowing for better control over the opening and closing of individual trades.
Bollinger Bands Fibonacci Ratios StrategyHello, everyone!
We have just released an innovative strategy for TradingView. It allows you to identify price pivot points and volatility.
This strategy is:
User-friendly
Configurable
Equipped with Bollinger Bands and smoothed ATR to measure volatility
Features
Thanks to the BB Fibo strategy, you can:
Trade stocks and commodities.
Identify price pivot points.
Choose any band for trading Long or Short positions.
Swap upper and lower bands applying Use Reverse Buy/Sell parameters.
Note! The upper bands are for the Long position. The lower bands are for the Short positions.
Parameters
We have equipped our strategy with more than 14 additional parameters. So, you can configure the EA according to your needs!
Inputs:
Length
Source: Open, High, Low, Close, HL2, HLC3, OHLC4
Offset
Fibonacci Ratio 1 — a Fibonacci factor for the 1st upper and lower indicator lines calculating.
Fibonacci Ratio 2 — a Fibonacci factor for the 2nd upper and lower indicator lines calculating.
Fibonacci Ratio 3 — a Fibonacci factor for the 3d upper and lower indicator lines calculating.
Use Reverse Buy — the strategy will use lower Bollinger bands instead of upper ones.
Fibonacci Buy — band selection for opening Long positions conditions.
Use Reverse Sell — the strategy will use upper Bollinger bands instead of lower ones.
Fibonacci Sell — band selection for opening Short positions conditions.
Style:
Basis — baseline color and style settings.
Upper 3 — the 3d upper line color and style.
Upper 2 — the 2nd upper line color and style.
Upper 1 — the 1st upper line color and style.
Lower 1 — the 1st lower line color and style.
Lower 2 — the 2nd lower line color and style.
Lower 3 — the 3d upper line color and style.
Background — the background color within the 3d upper and 3d lower indicator band.
Precision — the number of decimals for BB Fibo values.
Note! Try BB Fibo on your demo account first before going live.
vol_rangesThis script shows three measures of volatility:
historical (hv): realized volatility of the recent past
median (mv): a long run average of realized volatility
implied (iv): a user-defined volatility
Historical and median volatility are based on the EWMA, rather than standard deviation, method of calculating volatility. Since Tradingview's built in ema function uses a window, the "window" parameter determines how much historical data is used to calculate these volatility measures. E.g. 30 on a daily chart means the previous 30 days.
The plots above and below historical candles show past projections based on these measures. The "periods to expiration" dictates how far the projection extends. At 30 periods to expiration (default), the plot will indicate the one standard deviation range from 30 periods ago. This is calculated by multiplying the volatility measure by the square root of time. For example, if the historical volatility (hv) was 20% and the window is 30, then the plot is drawn over: close * 1.2 * sqrt(30/252).
At the most recent candle, this same calculation is simply drawn as a line projecting into the future.
This script is intended to be used with a particular options contract in mind. For example, if the option expires in 15 days and has an implied volatility of 25%, choose 15 for the window and 25 for the implied volatility options. The ranges drawn will reflect the two standard deviation range both in the future (lines) and at any point in the past (plots) for HV (blue), MV (red), and IV (grey).
Chandelier ExitChandelier Exit (CE) is a volatility-based indicator developed by "Chuck Le Beau", ATR is used to measure the Volatility.
It identifies stop loss exit points for long and short trading positions.
Configuring the ATR period = 1 and Multiplier = (say) 1.25 or 1.5, it can be used for readily available buffer Stop Loss value from previous high/low.
VoVix DEVMA🌌 VoVix DEVMA: A Deep Dive into Second-Order Volatility Dynamics
Welcome to VoVix+, a sophisticated trading framework that transcends traditional price analysis. This is not merely another indicator; it is a complete system designed to dissect and interpret the very fabric of market volatility. VoVix+ operates on the principle that the most powerful signals are not found in price alone, but in the behavior of volatility itself. It analyzes the rate of change, the momentum, and the structure of market volatility to identify periods of expansion and contraction, providing a unique edge in anticipating major market moves.
This document will serve as your comprehensive guide, breaking down every mathematical component, every user input, and every visual element to empower you with a profound understanding of how to harness its capabilities.
🔬 THEORETICAL FOUNDATION: THE MATHEMATICS OF MARKET DYNAMICS
VoVix+ is built upon a multi-layered mathematical engine designed to measure what we call "second-order volatility." While standard indicators analyze price, and first-order volatility indicators (like ATR) analyze the range of price, VoVix+ analyzes the dynamics of the volatility itself. This provides insight into the market's underlying state of stability or chaos.
1. The VoVix Score: Measuring Volatility Thrust
The core of the system begins with the VoVix Score. This is a normalized measure of volatility acceleration or deceleration.
Mathematical Formula:
VoVix Score = (ATR(fast) - ATR(slow)) / (StDev(ATR(fast)) + ε)
Where:
ATR(fast) is the Average True Range over a short period, representing current, immediate volatility.
ATR(slow) is the Average True Range over a longer period, representing the baseline or established volatility.
StDev(ATR(fast)) is the Standard Deviation of the fast ATR, which measures the "noisiness" or consistency of recent volatility.
ε (epsilon) is a very small number to prevent division by zero.
Market Implementation:
Positive Score (Expansion): When the fast ATR is significantly higher than the slow ATR, it indicates a rapid increase in volatility. The market is "stretching" or expanding.
Negative Score (Contraction): When the fast ATR falls below the slow ATR, it indicates a decrease in volatility. The market is "coiling" or contracting.
Normalization: By dividing by the standard deviation, we normalize the score. This turns it into a standardized measure, allowing us to compare volatility thrust across different market conditions and timeframes. A score of 2.0 in a quiet market means the same, relatively, as a score of 2.0 in a volatile market.
2. Deviation Analysis (DEV): Gauging Volatility's Own Volatility
The script then takes the analysis a step further. It calculates the standard deviation of the VoVix Score itself.
Mathematical Formula:
DEV = StDev(VoVix Score, lookback_period)
Market Implementation:
This DEV value represents the magnitude of chaos or stability in the market's volatility dynamics. A high DEV value means the volatility thrust is erratic and unpredictable. A low DEV value suggests the change in volatility is smooth and directional.
3. The DEVMA Crossover: Identifying Regime Shifts
This is the primary signal generator. We take two moving averages of the DEV value.
Mathematical Formula:
fastDEVMA = SMA(DEV, fast_period)
slowDEVMA = SMA(DEV, slow_period)
The Core Signal:
The strategy triggers on the crossover and crossunder of these two DEVMA lines. This is a profound concept: we are not looking at a moving average of price or even of volatility, but a moving average of the standard deviation of the normalized rate of change of volatility.
Bullish Crossover (fastDEVMA > slowDEVMA): This signals that the short-term measure of volatility's chaos is increasing relative to the long-term measure. This often precedes a significant market expansion and is interpreted as a bullish volatility regime.
Bearish Crossunder (fastDEVMA < slowDEVMA): This signals that the short-term measure of volatility's chaos is decreasing. The market is settling down or contracting, often leading to trending moves or range consolidation.
⚙️ INPUTS MENU: CONFIGURING YOUR ANALYSIS ENGINE
Every input has been meticulously designed to give you full control over the strategy's behavior. Understanding these settings is key to adapting VoVix+ to your specific instrument, timeframe, and trading style.
🌀 VoVix DEVMA Configuration
🧬 Deviation Lookback: This sets the lookback period for calculating the DEV value. It defines the window for measuring the stability of the VoVix Score. A shorter value makes the system highly reactive to recent changes in volatility's character, ideal for scalping. A longer value provides a smoother, more stable reading, better for identifying major, long-term regime shifts.
⚡ Fast VoVix Length: This is the lookback period for the fastDEVMA. It represents the short-term trend of volatility's chaos. A smaller number will result in a faster, more sensitive signal line that reacts quickly to market shifts.
🐌 Slow VoVix Length: This is the lookback period for the slowDEVMA. It represents the long-term, baseline trend of volatility's chaos. A larger number creates a more stable, slower-moving anchor against which the fast line is compared.
How to Optimize: The relationship between the Fast and Slow lengths is crucial. A wider gap (e.g., 20 and 60) will result in fewer, but potentially more significant, signals. A narrower gap (e.g., 25 and 40) will generate more frequent signals, suitable for more active trading styles.
🧠 Adaptive Intelligence
🧠 Enable Adaptive Features: When enabled, this activates the strategy's performance tracking module. The script will analyze the outcome of its last 50 trades to calculate a dynamic win rate.
⏰ Adaptive Time-Based Exit: If Enable Adaptive Features is on, this allows the strategy to adjust its Maximum Bars in Trade setting based on performance. It learns from the average duration of winning trades. If winning trades tend to be short, it may shorten the time exit to lock in profits. If winners tend to run, it will extend the time exit, allowing trades more room to develop. This helps prevent the strategy from cutting winning trades short or holding losing trades for too long.
⚡ Intelligent Execution
📊 Trade Quantity: A straightforward input that defines the number of contracts or shares for each trade. This is a fixed value for consistent position sizing.
🛡️ Smart Stop Loss: Enables the dynamic stop-loss mechanism.
🎯 Stop Loss ATR Multiplier: Determines the distance of the stop loss from the entry price, calculated as a multiple of the current 14-period ATR. A higher multiplier gives the trade more room to breathe but increases risk per trade. A lower multiplier creates a tighter stop, reducing risk but increasing the chance of being stopped out by normal market noise.
💰 Take Profit ATR Multiplier: Sets the take profit target, also as a multiple of the ATR. A common practice is to set this higher than the Stop Loss multiplier (e.g., a 2:1 or 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio).
🏃 Use Trailing Stop: This is a powerful feature for trend-following. When enabled, instead of a fixed stop loss, the stop will trail behind the price as the trade moves into profit, helping to lock in gains while letting winners run.
🎯 Trail Points & 📏 Trail Offset ATR Multipliers: These control the trailing stop's behavior. Trail Points defines how much profit is needed before the trail activates. Trail Offset defines how far the stop will trail behind the current price. Both are based on ATR, making them fully adaptive to market volatility.
⏰ Maximum Bars in Trade: This is a time-based stop. It forces an exit if a trade has been open for a specified number of bars, preventing positions from being held indefinitely in stagnant markets.
⏰ Session Management
These inputs allow you to confine the strategy's trading activity to specific market hours, which is crucial for day trading instruments that have defined high-volume sessions (e.g., stock market open).
🎨 Visual Effects & Dashboard
These toggles give you complete control over the on-chart visuals and the dashboard. You can disable any element to declutter your chart or focus only on the information that matters most to you.
📊 THE DASHBOARD: YOUR AT-A-GLANCE COMMAND CENTER
The dashboard centralizes all critical information into one compact, easy-to-read panel. It provides a real-time summary of the market state and strategy performance.
🎯 VOVIX ANALYSIS
Fast & Slow: Displays the current numerical values of the fastDEVMA and slowDEVMA. The color indicates their direction: green for rising, red for falling. This lets you see the underlying momentum of each line.
Regime: This is your most important environmental cue. It tells you the market's current state based on the DEVMA relationship. 🚀 EXPANSION (Green) signifies a bullish volatility regime where explosive moves are more likely. ⚛️ CONTRACTION (Purple) signifies a bearish volatility regime, where the market may be consolidating or entering a smoother trend.
Quality: Measures the strength of the last signal based on the magnitude of the DEVMA difference. An ELITE or STRONG signal indicates a high-conviction setup where the crossover had significant force.
PERFORMANCE
Win Rate & Trades: Displays the historical win rate of the strategy from the backtest, along with the total number of closed trades. This provides immediate feedback on the strategy's historical effectiveness on the current chart.
EXECUTION
Trade Qty: Shows your configured position size per trade.
Session: Indicates whether trading is currently OPEN (allowed) or CLOSED based on your session management settings.
POSITION
Position & PnL: Displays your current position (LONG, SHORT, or FLAT) and the real-time Profit or Loss of the open trade.
🧠 ADAPTIVE STATUS
Stop/Profit Mult: In this simplified version, these are placeholders. The primary adaptive feature currently modifies the time-based exit, which is reflected in how long trades are held on the chart.
🎨 THE VISUAL UNIVERSE: DECIPHERING MARKET GEOMETRY
The visuals are not mere decorations; they are geometric representations of the underlying mathematical concepts, designed to give you an intuitive feel for the market's state.
The Core Lines:
FastDEVMA (Green/Maroon Line): The primary signal line. Green when rising, indicating an increase in short-term volatility chaos. Maroon when falling.
SlowDEVMA (Aqua/Orange Line): The baseline. Aqua when rising, indicating a long-term increase in volatility chaos. Orange when falling.
🌊 Morphism Flow (Flowing Lines with Circles):
What it represents: This visualizes the momentum and strength of the fastDEVMA. The width and intensity of the "beam" are proportional to the signal strength.
Interpretation: A thick, steep, and vibrant flow indicates powerful, committed momentum in the current volatility regime. The floating '●' particles represent kinetic energy; more particles suggest stronger underlying force.
📐 Homotopy Paths (Layered Transparent Boxes):
What it represents: These layered boxes are centered between the two DEVMA lines. Their height is determined by the DEV value.
Interpretation: This visualizes the overall "volatility of volatility." Wider boxes indicate a chaotic, unpredictable market. Narrower boxes suggest a more stable, predictable environment.
🧠 Consciousness Field (The Grid):
What it represents: This grid provides a historical lookback at the DEV range.
Interpretation: It maps the recent "consciousness" or character of the market's volatility. A consistently wide grid suggests a prolonged period of chaos, while a narrowing grid can signal a transition to a more stable state.
📏 Functorial Levels (Projected Horizontal Lines):
What it represents: These lines extend from the current fastDEVMA and slowDEVMA values into the future.
Interpretation: Think of these as dynamic support and resistance levels for the volatility structure itself. A crossover becomes more significant if it breaks cleanly through a prior established level.
🌊 Flow Boxes (Spaced Out Boxes):
What it represents: These are compact visual footprints of the current regime, colored green for Expansion and red for Contraction.
Interpretation: They provide a quick, at-a-glance confirmation of the dominant volatility flow, reinforcing the background color.
Background Color:
This provides an immediate, unmistakable indication of the current volatility regime. Light Green for Expansion and Light Aqua/Blue for Contraction, allowing you to assess the market environment in a split second.
📊 BACKTESTING PERFORMANCE REVIEW & ANALYSIS
The following is a factual, transparent review of a backtest conducted using the strategy's default settings on a specific instrument and timeframe. This information is presented for educational purposes to demonstrate how the strategy's mechanics performed over a historical period. It is crucial to understand that these results are historical, apply only to the specific conditions of this test, and are not a guarantee or promise of future performance. Market conditions are dynamic and constantly change.
Test Parameters & Conditions
To ensure the backtest reflects a degree of real-world conditions, the following parameters were used. The goal is to provide a transparent baseline, not an over-optimized or unrealistic scenario.
Instrument: CME E-mini Nasdaq 100 Futures (NQ1!)
Timeframe: 5-Minute Chart
Backtesting Range: March 24, 2024, to July 09, 2024
Initial Capital: $100,000
Commission: $0.62 per contract (A realistic cost for futures trading).
Slippage: 3 ticks per trade (A conservative setting to account for potential price discrepancies between order placement and execution).
Trade Size: 1 contract per trade.
Performance Overview (Historical Data)
The test period generated 465 total trades , providing a statistically significant sample size for analysis, which is well above the recommended minimum of 100 trades for a strategy evaluation.
Profit Factor: The historical Profit Factor was 2.663 . This metric represents the gross profit divided by the gross loss. In this test, it indicates that for every dollar lost, $2.663 was gained.
Percent Profitable: Across all 465 trades, the strategy had a historical win rate of 84.09% . While a high figure, this is a historical artifact of this specific data set and settings, and should not be the sole basis for future expectations.
Risk & Trade Characteristics
Beyond the headline numbers, the following metrics provide deeper insight into the strategy's historical behavior.
Sortino Ratio (Downside Risk): The Sortino Ratio was 6.828 . Unlike the Sharpe Ratio, this metric only measures the volatility of negative returns. A higher value, such as this one, suggests that during this test period, the strategy was highly efficient at managing downside volatility and large losing trades relative to the profits it generated.
Average Trade Duration: A critical characteristic to understand is the strategy's holding period. With an average of only 2 bars per trade , this configuration operates as a very short-term, or scalping-style, system. Winning trades averaged 2 bars, while losing trades averaged 4 bars. This indicates the strategy's logic is designed to capture quick, high-probability moves and exit rapidly, either at a profit target or a stop loss.
Conclusion and Final Disclaimer
This backtest demonstrates one specific application of the VoVix+ framework. It highlights the strategy's behavior as a short-term system that, in this historical test on NQ1!, exhibited a high win rate and effective management of downside risk. Users are strongly encouraged to conduct their own backtests on different instruments, timeframes, and date ranges to understand how the strategy adapts to varying market structures. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all trading involves significant risk.
🔧 THE DEVELOPMENT PHILOSOPHY: FROM VOLATILITY TO CLARITY
The journey to create VoVix+ began with a simple question: "What drives major market moves?" The answer is often not a change in price direction, but a fundamental shift in market volatility. Standard indicators are reactive to price. We wanted to create a system that was predictive of market state. VoVix+ was designed to go one level deeper—to analyze the behavior, character, and momentum of volatility itself.
The challenge was twofold. First, to create a robust mathematical model to quantify these abstract concepts. This led to the multi-layered analysis of ATR differentials and standard deviations. Second, to make this complex data intuitive and actionable. This drove the creation of the "Visual Universe," where abstract mathematical values are translated into geometric shapes, flows, and fields. The adaptive system was intentionally kept simple and transparent, focusing on a single, impactful parameter (time-based exits) to provide performance feedback without becoming an inscrutable "black box." The result is a tool that is both profoundly deep in its analysis and remarkably clear in its presentation.
⚠️ RISK DISCLAIMER AND BEST PRACTICES
VoVix+ is an advanced analytical tool, not a guarantee of future profits. All financial markets carry inherent risk. The backtesting results shown by the strategy are historical and do not guarantee future performance. This strategy incorporates realistic commission and slippage settings by default, but market conditions can vary. Always practice sound risk management, use position sizes appropriate for your account equity, and never risk more than you can afford to lose. It is recommended to use this strategy as part of a comprehensive trading plan. This was developed specifically for Futures
"The prevailing wisdom is that markets are always right. I take the opposite view. I assume that markets are always wrong. Even if my assumption is occasionally wrong, I use it as a working hypothesis."
— George Soros
— Dskyz, Trade with insight. Trade with anticipation.
Futures Beta Overview with Different BenchmarksBeta Trading and Its Implementation with Futures
Understanding Beta
Beta is a measure of a security's volatility in relation to the overall market. It represents the sensitivity of the asset's returns to movements in the market, typically benchmarked against an index like the S&P 500. A beta of 1 indicates that the asset moves in line with the market, while a beta greater than 1 suggests higher volatility and potential risk, and a beta less than 1 indicates lower volatility.
The Beta Trading Strategy
Beta trading involves creating positions that exploit the discrepancies between the theoretical (or expected) beta of an asset and its actual market performance. The strategy often includes:
Long Positions on High Beta Assets: Investors might take long positions in assets with high beta when they expect market conditions to improve, as these assets have the potential to generate higher returns.
Short Positions on Low Beta Assets: Conversely, shorting low beta assets can be a strategy when the market is expected to decline, as these assets tend to perform better in down markets compared to high beta assets.
Betting Against (Bad) Beta
The paper "Betting Against Beta" by Frazzini and Pedersen (2014) provides insights into a trading strategy that involves betting against high beta stocks in favor of low beta stocks. The authors argue that high beta stocks do not provide the expected return premium over time, and that low beta stocks can yield higher risk-adjusted returns.
Key Points from the Paper:
Risk Premium: The authors assert that investors irrationally demand a higher risk premium for holding high beta stocks, leading to an overpricing of these assets. Conversely, low beta stocks are often undervalued.
Empirical Evidence: The paper presents empirical evidence showing that portfolios of low beta stocks outperform portfolios of high beta stocks over long periods. The performance difference is attributed to the irrational behavior of investors who overvalue riskier assets.
Market Conditions: The paper suggests that the underperformance of high beta stocks is particularly pronounced during market downturns, making low beta stocks a more attractive investment during volatile periods.
Implementation of the Strategy with Futures
Futures contracts can be used to implement the betting against beta strategy due to their ability to provide leveraged exposure to various asset classes. Here’s how the strategy can be executed using futures:
Identify High and Low Beta Futures: The first step involves identifying futures contracts that have high beta characteristics (more sensitive to market movements) and those with low beta characteristics (less sensitive). For example, commodity futures like crude oil or agricultural products might exhibit high beta due to their price volatility, while Treasury bond futures might show lower beta.
Construct a Portfolio: Investors can construct a portfolio that goes long on low beta futures and short on high beta futures. This can involve trading contracts on stock indices for high beta stocks and bonds for low beta exposures.
Leverage and Risk Management: Futures allow for leverage, which means that a small movement in the underlying asset can lead to significant gains or losses. Proper risk management is essential, using stop-loss orders and position sizing to mitigate the inherent risks associated with leveraged trading.
Adjusting Positions: The positions may need to be adjusted based on market conditions and the ongoing performance of the futures contracts. Continuous monitoring and rebalancing of the portfolio are essential to maintain the desired risk profile.
Performance Evaluation: Finally, investors should regularly evaluate the performance of the portfolio to ensure it aligns with the expected outcomes of the betting against beta strategy. Metrics like the Sharpe ratio can be used to assess the risk-adjusted returns of the portfolio.
Conclusion
Beta trading, particularly the strategy of betting against high beta assets, presents a compelling approach to capitalizing on market inefficiencies. The research by Frazzini and Pedersen emphasizes the benefits of focusing on low beta assets, which can yield more favorable risk-adjusted returns over time. When implemented using futures, this strategy can provide a flexible and efficient means to execute trades while managing risks effectively.
References
Frazzini, A., & Pedersen, L. H. (2014). Betting against beta. Journal of Financial Economics, 111(1), 1-25.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1992). The cross-section of expected stock returns. Journal of Finance, 47(2), 427-465.
Black, F. (1972). Capital Market Equilibrium with Restricted Borrowing. Journal of Business, 45(3), 444-454.
Ang, A., & Chen, J. (2010). Asymmetric volatility: Evidence from the stock and bond markets. Journal of Financial Economics, 99(1), 60-80.
By utilizing the insights from academic literature and implementing a disciplined trading strategy, investors can effectively navigate the complexities of beta trading in the futures market.
Average True Range with EMAIncreasing and decreasing volatility in respect to ATR crossing an ema of ATR.
Ema acts as a proxy for look-back period as per Historical Volatility Percentile.
ATR is a proxy for Volatility as per standard deviation.
Divergence below ema means low volatility: the more divergence, the lower.
Divergence above the ema means high volatility.
