Volatility State Index [Interakktive]The Volatility State Index (VSI) classifies market volatility into three behavioral states: Expansion, Decay, and Transition. It answers one question visually: Is volatility supporting price movement, withdrawing, or unstable?
Unlike traditional volatility indicators that show levels or bands, VSI diagnoses the current volatility regime so traders can adapt their approach accordingly.
█ WHAT IT DOES
• Classifies volatility into three states: Expansion (teal), Decay (grey), Transition (amber)
• Measures volatility momentum as a percentage rate-of-change
• Applies stability filtering to detect unstable/choppy conditions
• Uses persistence logic to prevent state flickering
• Exports state data for use in alerts and strategies
█ WHAT IT DOES NOT DO
• NO buy/sell signals
• NO entry/exit recommendations
• NO alerts (v1 is diagnostic only)
• NO performance claims
This is a volatility diagnostic tool, not a trading system.
█ HOW IT WORKS
The VSI processes volatility through a five-stage pipeline:
STAGE 1 — Base Volatility
Calculates ATR as the foundation for volatility measurement.
STAGE 2 — Smoothing
Applies EMA smoothing to reduce noise in the volatility series.
STAGE 3 — Volatility Momentum
Computes the percentage rate-of-change of smoothed volatility:
Volatility Momentum (%) = ((Current ATR - Previous ATR) / Previous ATR) × 100
Positive values indicate expanding volatility; negative values indicate contracting volatility.
STAGE 4 — Stability Filter
Tracks how frequently volatility momentum changes direction. Frequent sign changes indicate unstable, choppy conditions.
Stability Score = 1 - (Average Flip Rate)
Low stability forces the Transition state regardless of momentum level.
STAGE 5 — State Classification
Combines momentum thresholds and stability to determine the final state:
• Expansion: Momentum ≥ +5% (default threshold)
• Decay: Momentum ≤ -5% (default threshold)
• Transition: Between thresholds OR low stability
A persistence filter requires states to hold for multiple bars before confirming, preventing visual noise.
█ INTERPRETATION
EXPANSION (Teal)
Volatility is increasing in a sustained way. Price moves are becoming larger.
What it suggests:
• Breakouts are more likely to follow through
• Stops may need wider placement
• Trend-following approaches tend to work better
• Mean-reversion weakens
DECAY (Grey)
Volatility is decreasing. Price is compressing into tighter ranges.
What it suggests:
• Breakouts are more likely to fail
• Ranges tend to hold
• Trend-following underperforms
• Mean-reversion strengthens
TRANSITION (Amber)
Volatility behavior is unclear or unstable. This is NOT neutral — it is uncertainty.
What it suggests:
• Mixed signals — one bar huge, next bar dead
• Higher whipsaw risk
• Reduced conviction in either direction
• Consider waiting for clarity
The key insight: Amber is a warning, not a middle ground. It appears when volatility cannot decide what it wants to do.
█ VISUAL DESIGN
The indicator uses a state-first histogram design:
• Histogram height shows volatility momentum percentage
• Histogram color shows the classified state
• Zero line provides visual anchor
• Optional momentum line for confirmation
• Optional background tint (default OFF for clean charts)
The visual hierarchy prioritizes instant state recognition. A trader should understand the volatility environment in under one second without reading numbers.
█ INPUTS
Core Settings
• ATR Length: Base volatility measurement period (default: 14)
• Smoothing Length: EMA smoothing applied to ATR (default: 10)
• Momentum Length: Rate-of-change lookback (default: 10)
State Classification
• Expansion Threshold (%): Momentum above this = Expansion (default: 5.0)
• Decay Threshold (%): Momentum below this = Decay (default: -5.0)
• Persistence Bars: Bars required to confirm state change (default: 3)
• Stability Lookback: Window for stability calculation (default: 20)
• Stability Threshold: Below this = forced Transition (default: 0.5)
Visual Settings
• Show State Histogram: Toggle main display (default: ON)
• Show Momentum Line: Thin confirmation line (default: OFF)
• Show Zero Line: Baseline reference (default: ON)
• Show Background Tint: Subtle state coloring (default: OFF)
█ DATA WINDOW EXPORTS
When enabled, the following values are exported:
• ATR (Raw)
• ATR (Smoothed)
• Volatility Momentum (%)
• Stability Score (0-1)
• State (-1/0/1): Decay = -1, Transition = 0, Expansion = 1
• Is Expansion (0/1)
• Is Decay (0/1)
• Is Transition (0/1)
These exports allow VSI to be used as a filter in Pine Script strategies or alert conditions.
█ ORIGINALITY
While ATR and volatility indicators are common, VSI is original because it:
1. Classifies volatility into behavioral states rather than showing raw levels
2. Applies momentum analysis to volatility itself (rate-of-change of ATR)
3. Uses stability filtering to detect genuinely unstable conditions
4. Implements persistence logic to prevent state flickering
5. Provides a state-first visual design optimized for instant recognition
VSI is state-first: it classifies volatility regimes (Expansion/Decay/Transition) rather than plotting volatility level alone, using momentum and stability to reduce false regime reads.
This is not a modified ATR or Bollinger Band — it is a volatility regime classifier.
█ SUITABLE MARKETS
Works on: Stocks, Futures, Forex, Crypto
Timeframes: All timeframes — state classification adapts accordingly
Best on: Instruments with consistent volatility patterns
█ RELATED
• Market Efficiency Ratio — measures price path efficiency
• Effort-Result Divergence — compares volume effort to price result
█ DISCLAIMER
This indicator is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own analysis before making trading decisions.
"forex"に関するスクリプトを検索
SuperTrend Weighted by Divergence█ OVERVIEW
SuperTrend Weighted by Divergence is a trend-following indicator based on the classic SuperTrend, enhanced with dynamic ATR weighting driven by divergences. Its key feature is adaptive behavior: when a divergence appears, the indicator temporarily reduces the ATR multiplier, allowing the trend line to react faster to potential market reversals.
The indicator remains clean, visually clear, and well suited for traders who want to combine trend-following with early detection of weakening momentum.
█ CONCEPT
One of the biggest drawbacks of trend indicators is their lagging nature, caused by the characteristics of source data. Classic SuperTrends react only after the trend has already developed, which often leads to late entries or exits.
The idea behind SuperTrend Weighted by Divergence is to introduce dynamic adjustment of the trend line in response to the first signs of trend weakening.
Instead of treating ATR as a constant volatility buffer, the indicator temporarily modifies its impact when the market sends warning signals in the form of price–oscillator divergences.
For divergence detection, a hidden auxiliary oscillator called “MPO4 Lines – Modal Engine” (default settings) is used. This oscillator is not displayed on the chart – only the points where divergences are detected are shown as markers on price bars.
Divergences do not generate direct entry signals; they are used solely to temporarily adjust the behavior of the SuperTrend.
If, after detecting a divergence against the current trend, a divergence in line with the trend appears, the previous divergence is invalidated and the SuperTrend returns to its standard behavior (base ATR multiplier).
█ FEATURES
Data sources:
- ATR (Average True Range)
- Reference point: HL2 (high/low average)
- MPO4 Lines – Modal Engine oscillator (hidden, used only for divergence detection)
Divergence logic:
- Bullish divergence: lower low in price + higher low in the oscillator
- Bearish divergence: higher high in price + lower high in the oscillator
- Divergences are detected using pivots (left/right)
- Divergence detection is delayed by the pivot length, as confirmation requires a fixed number of bars on the right side
Divergence impact:
- After a divergence is detected, the ATR multiplier is reduced
- The reduction strength is controlled by Divergence Sensitivity
- The effect is active only for a limited number of bars – 200 bars by default (divBars)
- The effect is canceled on trend change or when a trend-aligned divergence appears
Trend change logic:
- Trend changes only after a confirmed close beyond the trailing line
- No repainting
- Trend lines break at reversal points
Visual signals:
- “Buy” and “Sell” labels only on confirmed trend changes
- Optional bar coloring based on current trend (Color bars by trend)
- Soft fill between price and the trend line
- Divergence markers (dots above/below bars) shown at the point of divergence detection, not across the entire divergence structure
Alerts:
- Buy Signal – trend change to bullish
- Sell Signal – trend change to bearish
- Bullish Divergence
- Bearish Divergence
█ HOW TO USE
Adding the indicator:
Paste the code into Pine Editor or search for “SuperTrend Weighted by Divergence” on TradingView
Main settings:
- ATR Length – ATR period
- Base ATR Multiplier – base SuperTrend width
- Pivot Length – divergence sensitivity and detection delay
- Divergence Sensitivity – strength of divergence impact (0.0–1.0)
- Color bars by trend – enable / disable bar coloring
- Line and fill colors – fully customizable
Interpretation:
- Green line and bars = uptrend
- Red line and bars = downtrend
- Divergence against the trend = possible weakening and faster SuperTrend reaction
- Trend-aligned divergence = return to standard SuperTrend behavior
- No divergence = classic, stable SuperTrend behavior
█ APPLICATIONS
Ideal for:
- Trend-following
Entering positions only in the direction of the current trend, using the SuperTrend as a directional filter.
- Early detection of trend weakness
Repeated divergences against the trend may indicate decreasing momentum and a potential upcoming reversal.
- Markets with variable dynamics (crypto, indices, forex)
Entries based on trend changes, preferably confirmed by other tools such as Fibonacci levels, RSI, support/resistance, or market structure.
- Scalping, day trading, and swing trading (with parameter adjustments)
Increasing Divergence Sensitivity to around 0.4–0.5 produces many more signals on small, often short-lived moves.
These settings work well for scalping and day trading, but are not ideal for swing trading, as they tend to generate more false signals and frequent trend changes.
█ NOTES
- Works on all markets and timeframes
- Divergences are used to adapt SuperTrend behavior, not as standalone entry signals
- Higher Divergence Sensitivity = faster reaction and more signals
- Lower Divergence Sensitivity = smoother trend and fewer changes
- Best results are achieved by tuning parameters to the instrument and trading style
FatihStrategy: Universal Pivot System v3.3.1FatihStrategy: Universal Pivot System v3.3.1 is an advanced technical analysis indicator that combines multi-timeframe pivot averages with EMA trend filters in a single visual system.
🔹 How It Works
Depending on the selected pivot mode, the indicator calculates and visualizes:
Daily & 3-Day Average Pivots
Weekly & 3-Week Average Pivots
Monthly & 3-Month Average Pivots
Yearly & 3-Year Average Pivots
The difference between pivot levels is displayed as colored boxes:
Red Box → Lower timeframe pivot zone
Yellow Box → Higher timeframe pivot zone
These zones help identify potential support, resistance, and consolidation areas.
🔹 EMA Trend Support
Optional exponential moving averages:
20 EMA
50 EMA
200 EMA
can be enabled to assist with trend direction and trade filtering.
🔹 Suitable For
Day traders and swing traders
Pivot-based strategies
Traders looking for clear visual support/resistance zones
Crypto, forex, and stock market analysis
⚠️ Disclaimer
This indicator is not financial advice.
Always use proper risk management and confirm signals with your own trading strategy.
FVG + Fibonacci Strategy FINALLa estrategia más precisa para S&P 500, Cannabis Stocks (CURA, GTBIF) y Forex volátil
✅ 3 Filtros de Alta Confluencia:
Fair Value Gaps (FVG): Detecta gaps >0.5% (75-85% relleno histórico)
Fibonacci 61.8%: Golden Zone automática desde swings
Volume Spike: 1.5x media + vela direccional
Resultados Backtest H1 (2023-2025):
text
Win Rate: 84% (confluencia completa)
Avg R/R: 1:2.8
Drawdown: -5.4%
Trades/mes: 8-12 setups premium
🎯 Señales Automáticas:
🟢 BUY: Triángulo verde + SL/TP en label
🔴 SELL: Triángulo rojo + niveles exactos
📱 Alertas: Entry/SL/TP directo al móvil
Tabla Live Status (Top Right):
FVG activo ✅/❌
Fibo 61.8% cerca ✅/❌
Volumen confirmado ✅/❌
Perfecto para:
📈 S&P 500 H1/D1
🌿 Cannabis stocks volátiles
💱 Forex majors (EURUSD, GBPUSD)
Copia → Pine Editor → Add to Chart → Activa Alertas
Backtest validado en 1000+ trades. Ratio riesgo/recompensa óptimo 1:2+
¡Únete a los traders que operan con EDGE real! 💰
The most accurate strategy for S&P 500, Cannabis Stocks (CURA, GTBIF) & Volatile Forex
✅ 3 High-Confluence Filters:
Fair Value Gaps (FVG): Detects gaps >0.5% (75-85% historical fill rate)
Fibonacci 61.8%: Auto Golden Zone from swings
Volume Spike: 1.5x average + directional candle
H1 Backtest Results (2023-2025):
text
Win Rate: 84% (full confluence)
Avg R/R: 1:2.8
Drawdown: -5.4%
Trades/month: 8-12 premium setups
🎯 Automatic Signals:
🟢 BUY: Green triangle + SL/TP on label
🔴 SELL: Red triangle + exact levels
📱 Alerts: Entry/SL/TP straight to mobile
Live Status Table (Top Right):
FVG active ✅/❌
Fibo 61.8% nearby ✅/❌
Volume confirmed ✅/❌
Perfect for:
📈 S&P 500 H1/D1
🌿 Volatile cannabis stocks
💱 Forex majors (EURUSD, GBPUSD)
Copy → Pine Editor → Add to Chart → Enable Alerts
Backtested on 1000+ trades. Optimal 1:2+ risk/reward ratio
Join traders operating with REAL EDGE! 💰
Candle Strength Analyzer by The Ultimate Bull Run# Candle Strength Analyzer
## 📊 Complete Beginner's Guide
---
### 🎯 What This Indicator Does
The **Candle Strength Analyzer** measures how "strong" or "weak" each candlestick is and displays a **score from 0 to 100** above or below every candle.
- **Green numbers** = Bullish (price went UP)
- **Red numbers** = Bearish (price went DOWN)
- **Gray numbers** = Doji (price barely moved)
**Higher score = Stronger candle = More reliable signal**
---
### 🕯️ Understanding Candlesticks (The Basics)
If you're new to trading, here's what a candlestick shows:
```
│ ← Upper Wick (prices that were rejected)
│
┌───┐
│ │ ← Body (the "real" price movement)
│ │ • Green/White body = Price went UP (Bullish)
│ │ • Red/Black body = Price went DOWN (Bearish)
└───┘
│
│ ← Lower Wick (prices that were rejected)
```
**Key Terms:**
- **Open**: The price when the candle started
- **Close**: The price when the candle ended
- **High**: The highest price during the candle
- **Low**: The lowest price during the candle
- **Body**: The rectangle between Open and Close
- **Wick/Shadow**: The thin lines above and below the body
---
## 📐 The 4 Components of Candle Strength
This indicator combines **4 measurements** to calculate the final strength score. Let's understand each one:
---
### 1️⃣ Body Ratio (30% of score)
**What it is:**
The percentage of the candle that is "body" versus "wicks."
**Formula:**
```
Body Ratio = Size of Body ÷ Total Candle Size × 100
```
**What it tells you:**
- **High Body Ratio (70-100%)**: Bulls or bears were in FULL control. The price moved in one direction and STAYED there. This is strong.
- **Low Body Ratio (0-30%)**: There was a fight. Price moved up AND down but ended up roughly where it started. This is weak/indecisive.
**Visual Example:**
```
Strong Candle (90% body): Weak Candle (20% body):
│ │
┌───┐ │
│ │ ┌─┴─┐
│ │ ← Mostly body │ │ ← Tiny body
│ │ └─┬─┘
└───┘ │
│ │
```
**How to interpret:**
| Body Ratio | Meaning |
|------------|---------|
| 90-100% | **Marubozu** - Extremely strong, full commitment |
| 70-90% | **Strong** - Clear winner (bulls or bears) |
| 40-70% | **Normal** - Typical market activity |
| 10-40% | **Weak** - Significant indecision |
| 0-10% | **Doji** - Complete indecision, no winner |
---
### 2️⃣ Close Position Score (25% of score)
**What it is:**
WHERE the candle closed within its range (high to low).
**What it tells you:**
- For a **bullish (green) candle**: Closing near the HIGH means buyers were still eager at the end = STRONG
- For a **bearish (red) candle**: Closing near the LOW means sellers were still eager at the end = STRONG
**Visual Example:**
```
Strong Bullish: Weak Bullish:
(closes near high) (closes near middle)
┌───┐ ← Close here │
│ │ ┌─┴─┐ ← Close here
│ │ │ │
│ │ │ │
└───┘ └───┘
│ │
```
**Why it matters:**
If price went UP but then sellers pushed it back down before the candle closed, that's a sign of weakness. The bulls couldn't hold their ground.
**How to interpret:**
| Close Position | For Bullish Candle | For Bearish Candle |
|----------------|-------------------|-------------------|
| 80-100% | Strong (near high) | Weak (near high) |
| 50-80% | Moderate | Moderate |
| 20-50% | Weak | Moderate |
| 0-20% | Very Weak (near low) | Strong (near low) |
---
### 3️⃣ Relative Volume - RVOL (25% of score)
**What is Volume?**
Volume is the NUMBER of shares/contracts traded during that candle. Think of it as "how many people participated."
**What is RVOL?**
RVOL compares TODAY'S volume to the AVERAGE volume.
**Formula:**
```
RVOL = Current Volume ÷ Average Volume (last 20 candles)
```
**What it tells you:**
- **RVOL = 1.0**: Normal activity (same as average)
- **RVOL = 2.0**: DOUBLE the normal activity (2x more traders involved)
- **RVOL = 0.5**: HALF the normal activity (fewer traders involved)
**Why it matters:**
A big price move with LOW volume is suspicious - it might not last.
A big price move with HIGH volume is confirmed - many traders agree.
**Think of it like voting:**
- High volume = Many people voted for this direction
- Low volume = Only a few people voted, decision might change
**How to interpret:**
| RVOL | Meaning | Signal Quality |
|------|---------|----------------|
| 2.0+ | Very High - Institutional activity likely | ⭐⭐⭐ Excellent |
| 1.5-2.0 | High - Significant interest | ⭐⭐ Good |
| 1.0-1.5 | Above Average | ⭐ Acceptable |
| 0.7-1.0 | Below Average | ⚠️ Caution |
| < 0.7 | Low - Lack of interest | ❌ Unreliable |
---
### 4️⃣ Size vs ATR (20% of score)
**What is ATR?**
ATR stands for "Average True Range." It measures how much the price TYPICALLY moves.
**What this component measures:**
How big is THIS candle compared to how big candles USUALLY are?
**Formula:**
```
ATR Ratio = This Candle's Size ÷ Average Candle Size (ATR)
```
**What it tells you:**
- **ATR Ratio = 2.0**: This candle is TWICE as big as normal = Significant move
- **ATR Ratio = 1.0**: This candle is normal sized
- **ATR Ratio = 0.5**: This candle is HALF the normal size = Minor move
**Why it matters:**
A 50-point move in a stock that normally moves 100 points is small.
A 50-point move in a stock that normally moves 20 points is HUGE.
Context matters!
**How to interpret:**
| ATR Ratio | Meaning |
|-----------|---------|
| 2.0+ | **Expansion** - Unusually large move, potential breakout |
| 1.5-2.0 | **Large** - Significant momentum |
| 1.0-1.5 | **Above Average** - Notable move |
| 0.5-1.0 | **Normal** - Typical movement |
| < 0.5 | **Small** - Insignificant, might be noise |
---
## 🧮 How the Final Score is Calculated
The indicator combines all 4 components with these weights:
```
Final Score = (Body Ratio × 30%) +
(Close Position × 25%) +
(RVOL Score × 25%) +
(Size Score × 20%)
```
**Result: A score from 0 to 100**
---
## 📊 Understanding the Strength Score
| Score | Classification | What It Means | Should You Trade It? |
|-------|---------------|---------------|---------------------|
| **70-100** | 🟢 STRONG | High conviction move, reliable signal | ✅ Yes - Good setup |
| **40-70** | 🟡 MODERATE | Average move, needs confirmation | ⚠️ Maybe - Add other indicators |
| **0-40** | 🔴 WEAK | Low conviction, unreliable | ❌ No - Wait for better setup |
---
## 🏷️ Special Pattern Markers
The indicator also detects special candlestick patterns:
### ⚡ Power Candle
**Requirements:**
- Body Ratio > 70% (strong body)
- RVOL > 1.5 (high volume)
- Close Position > 80% (closes near the extreme)
**What it means:** The BEST possible signal. Everything aligns perfectly.
### Ⓜ️ Marubozu
**Requirements:**
- Body Ratio > 90% (almost no wicks)
**What it means:** Complete dominance by bulls or bears. Very strong continuation signal.
### ◆ High Volume Doji
**Requirements:**
- Doji candle (tiny body)
- High volume
**What it means:** Many traders are fighting, but no one won. Often signals a REVERSAL is coming.
---
## ⚙️ Settings Explained
### Volume Settings
| Setting | Default | What It Does |
|---------|---------|--------------|
| Volume Lookback Period | 20 | How many candles to average for "normal" volume |
| RVOL Threshold | 1.5 | What counts as "high" volume (1.5 = 50% above average) |
### ATR Settings
| Setting | Default | What It Does |
|---------|---------|--------------|
| ATR Period | 14 | How many candles to calculate average movement |
| ATR Multiplier | 1.5 | What counts as a "large" candle |
### Strength Thresholds
| Setting | Default | What It Does |
|---------|---------|--------------|
| Strong Candle Threshold | 70 | Score needed to be "strong" |
| Weak Candle Threshold | 30 | Score below this is "weak" |
### Label Filter (Important!)
TradingView limits indicators to **500 labels maximum**. Use filters to see more history:
| Filter Mode | Shows | Best For |
|-------------|-------|----------|
| All Candles | Every single candle | Short-term charts (5min, 15min) |
| Strong Only (70+) | Only strong candles | Longer history, key signals only |
| Moderate+ (40+) | Moderate and strong | Balance of detail and history |
| Custom Minimum | Your choice | Full control |
**Tip:** On daily charts, use "Strong Only" to see months of history instead of just a few weeks.
### Label Settings
| Setting | What It Does |
|---------|--------------|
| Label Size | tiny / small / normal / large |
| Show Decimal Places | Show "72.5" instead of "73" |
| Label Style | With background bubble OR just text |
---
## 📖 How to Read the Info Table
The table in the corner shows details for the CURRENT (most recent) candle:
| Row | Meaning |
|-----|---------|
| **Candle Strength** | The final score (0-100) |
| **Direction** | BULLISH / BEARISH / DOJI |
| **Body Ratio** | Percentage of candle that is body |
| **Close Position** | Where it closed (0-100) |
| **Upper Wick** | Size of upper wick as % |
| **Lower Wick** | Size of lower wick as % |
| **RVOL** | Current volume vs average (1.5x = 50% above average) |
| **Size/ATR** | Candle size vs average size |
| **Classification** | STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK |
| **Vol Confirmed** | Is volume above threshold? |
| **Pattern** | Special pattern detected |
---
## 🎓 How to Use This Indicator
### Step 1: Add to Chart
1. Open Pine Editor in TradingView
2. Paste the code
3. Click "Add to Chart"
### Step 2: Adjust Filter (if needed)
- If you see "max labels reached," change filter to "Strong Only (70+)"
- This lets you see more candles in history
### Step 3: Look for Strong Signals
Focus on candles with:
- ✅ Score **70+** (bright green or red)
- ✅ **RVOL > 1.5** (confirmed by volume)
- ✅ Special markers (⚡, M, ◆)
### Step 4: Avoid Weak Signals
Be careful with candles that have:
- ❌ Score **below 40** (muted colors)
- ❌ **RVOL < 1.0** (no volume confirmation)
- ❌ Large wicks (rejection happened)
---
## 💡 Trading Tips for Beginners
### ✅ DO:
1. **Wait for strong candles (70+)** before entering trades
2. **Confirm with volume** - Look for RVOL > 1.5
3. **Use at support/resistance levels** - Strong candles at key levels are more meaningful
4. **Combine with other indicators** - RSI, MACD, or moving averages
5. **Practice on demo first** - Learn to recognize strong vs weak candles
### ❌ DON'T:
1. **Trade every candle** - Not all candles are worth trading
2. **Ignore volume** - A strong candle with low volume is suspicious
3. **Fight the trend** - Strong bearish candles in an uptrend might just be pullbacks
4. **Over-leverage** - Even strong signals can fail
---
## 📝 Quick Reference Cheat Sheet
```
STRONG CANDLE CHECKLIST:
□ Score 70+
□ RVOL > 1.5
□ Body Ratio > 60%
□ Close Position > 75% (bullish) or < 25% (bearish)
□ At key support/resistance level
WEAK CANDLE WARNING SIGNS:
□ Score < 40
□ RVOL < 0.7
□ Large wicks (> 30%)
□ Doji pattern
□ Small candle (ATR Ratio < 0.5)
```
---
## ⚠️ Important Disclaimers
1. **No indicator is 100% accurate** - Always use stop losses
2. **Past performance ≠ future results** - Markets change
3. **This is a tool, not a strategy** - Combine with other analysis
4. **Practice first** - Use paper trading before real money
---
## 🔔 Alerts Available
Set alerts for:
- Strong Bullish Candle (with volume confirmation)
- Strong Bearish Candle (with volume confirmation)
- Power Candle detected
- Marubozu detected
- High Volume Doji detected
---
## ❓ FAQ
**Q: Why are some candles missing labels?**
A: TradingView limits indicators to 500 labels. Use filters to see more history.
**Q: The label colors are hard to see. Can I change them?**
A: Yes! Go to Settings → Colors and customize all colors.
**Q: Should I only trade strong candles?**
A: Strong candles are MORE reliable, but not guaranteed. Always use proper risk management.
**Q: What timeframe works best?**
A: Works on all timeframes. Higher timeframes (4H, Daily) tend to have more reliable signals.
**Q: Can I use this for crypto/forex/stocks?**
A: Yes! This indicator works on any market with candlestick data and volume.
---
## 📚 Glossary
| Term | Definition |
|------|------------|
| **Bullish** | Price is going UP / Buyers are winning |
| **Bearish** | Price is going DOWN / Sellers are winning |
| **Doji** | Candle where open and close are nearly equal (indecision) |
| **Marubozu** | Candle with no wicks (full body) |
| **RVOL** | Relative Volume - current volume vs average |
| **ATR** | Average True Range - typical price movement |
| **Wick/Shadow** | The thin lines above/below the candle body |
| **Support** | Price level where buyers tend to step in |
| **Resistance** | Price level where sellers tend to step in |
| **Breakout** | When price moves beyond support/resistance |
---
**Happy Trading! 📈**
*Remember: The best traders are patient traders. Wait for strong setups.*
Statistcal Daily Profile & Ranges# Statistical Daily Profile & Ranges - TradingView Publication Guide
## Overview
The **Statistical Daily Profile & Ranges** indicator is a comprehensive tool designed to analyze intraday session behavior and daily range characteristics. It combines Average Daily Range (ADR) projection levels with detailed session-by-session statistics and probability-based trading insights derived from historical price action patterns.
## What This Indicator Does
This indicator provides traders with three core analytical components:
1. **ADR Projection Levels** - Dynamic support/resistance levels based on historical daily ranges
2. **Session Range Analysis** - Visual boxes and statistical breakdowns for four key trading sessions
3. **Dynamic Probability Display** - Real-time probability statistics based on overnight session relationships
## How It Works
### Average Daily Range (ADR) Calculation
The indicator calculates the average daily range over a user-defined lookback period (default: 10 days) and projects this range from each day's opening price. This creates two key levels:
- **ADR High**: Opening price + average daily range
- **ADR Low**: Opening price - average daily range
- **ADR Median**: The opening price (middle of the projected range)
These levels are recalculated at the start of each trading day and extend forward, providing dynamic support and resistance zones based on recent volatility characteristics.
### Session Tracking & Statistics
The indicator monitors four distinct trading sessions (times in Eastern Time):
1. **Asia Session** (8:00 PM - 2:00 AM)
2. **London Session** (2:00 AM - 8:00 AM)
3. **NY Open** (8:00 AM - 9:00 AM)
4. **NY Initial Balance** (9:30 AM - 10:30 AM)
For each session, the indicator:
- Draws a colored box showing the session's high-to-low range
- Tracks the opening price, high, and low
- Stores historical data for statistical analysis
- Calculates average ranges by day of week (Monday through Friday)
The session statistics are displayed in a customizable table showing average point ranges for each session across different weekdays, helping traders identify which sessions and days typically produce the most movement.
### Dynamic Probability System
The indicator analyzes the relationship between the Asia and London sessions to determine the current market setup. After the London session closes, it automatically detects one of four possible conditions:
**1. London Engulfs Asia**
- London session breaks both above Asia's high AND below Asia's low
- This indicates strong momentum during the European session
- Most common occurrence pattern
**2. Asia Engulfs London**
- Asia session range completely contains the London session range
- Indicates consolidation during London hours
- Relatively rare pattern (occurs approximately 5.36% of the time)
**3. London Partially Engulfs Upwards**
- London breaks above Asia's high but stays above Asia's low
- Suggests bullish momentum continuation from Asia into London
**4. London Partially Engulfs Downwards**
- London breaks below Asia's low but stays below Asia's high
- Suggests bearish momentum continuation from Asia into London
Once a condition is detected, the indicator displays a probability table showing historically observed outcomes for that specific setup, including:
- Probability of NY session taking out key levels (Asia high/low, London high/low)
- Probability of NY session engulfing the entire overnight range
- Directional bias for NY Cash session (9:30 AM - 4:00 PM)
## How to Use This Indicator
### Initial Setup
1. Add the indicator to your chart (works on any intraday timeframe below Daily)
2. Adjust the **ADR Days** setting (default: 10) to control the lookback period for range calculation
3. Adjust the **Session Lookback Days** setting (default: 50) to determine how much historical data feeds the statistics tables
### Reading the ADR Levels
- Use the **ADR High** and **ADR Low** lines as potential profit targets or areas where price may encounter resistance
- The **ADR Median** line represents the opening price and can act as a pivot point for intraday directional bias
- If price reaches the ADR High early in the session, it suggests strong bullish momentum; conversely for ADR Low
- These levels adapt daily based on recent volatility, making them more responsive than static levels
### Interpreting Session Boxes
- **Session boxes** visually highlight when each trading session is active and its price range
- Larger boxes indicate higher volatility during that session
- Compare current session ranges to the statistical averages shown in the table
- Sessions that are unusually quiet or active relative to historical averages may signal compression or expansion
### Using the Session Statistics Table
- The table shows average point ranges for each session broken down by weekday
- Identify which sessions typically produce the most movement on specific days
- For example, if London on Thursdays averages 40 points while Mondays average 25 points, you can adjust position sizing or expectations accordingly
- The **Total** column shows the overall average across all days
- Sample sizes (shown in brackets if enabled) indicate data reliability
### Trading with the Probability Table
The probability table updates dynamically after the London session closes and shows statistically probable outcomes based on 12 years of NQ futures data.
**Important Limitations:**
- **These probabilities are derived from NQ (Nasdaq E-mini futures) data only**
- **Do NOT apply these probability statistics to other instruments** (ES, stocks, forex, etc.)
- The probabilities represent historical frequencies, not guarantees
- Always combine with your own analysis, risk management, and market context
**How to Apply the Probabilities:**
When **London Engulfs Asia**:
- Watch for NY session to take out London's extremes (72.33% probability for high, 71.12% for low)
- Slight bullish bias in NY Cash session (54.80% vs 45.20%)
- Lower probability of complete overnight engulfment (44.13%)
When **Asia Engulfs London** (rare - 5.36% occurrence):
- Higher probability NY takes Asia's high (75.86%)
- Moderately high probability NY takes Asia's low (65.52%)
- Slight increase in bullish bias (58.42% vs 41.58%)
- Recognize this as an unusual setup
When **London Partially Engulfs Upwards**:
- Very high probability NY takes London high (81.51%)
- Strong probability NY takes London low (64.45%)
- Moderate probability NY takes Asian low (53.16%)
- Slight bullish bias (55.52%)
When **London Partially Engulfs Downwards**:
- Very high probability NY takes London low (75.29%)
- Strong probability NY takes London high (68.80%)
- Moderate probability NY takes Asian high (56.44%)
- Slight bullish bias maintained (52.99%)
### Practical Trading Applications
**Scenario 1: Range Projection**
If the ADR is 500 points and the market opens at 25,000:
- ADR High: 25,500 (potential resistance/target)
- ADR Low: 24,500 (potential support/target)
- Monitor how price interacts with these levels throughout the day
**Scenario 2: Session-Based Trading**
Using the statistics table, you notice London on Wednesdays averages 35 points. During a Wednesday London session:
- If London has already moved 30 points, the session may be exhausting its typical range
- If London has only moved 15 points with an hour remaining, there may be expansion potential
- Adjust stop losses and targets based on typical session behavior
**Scenario 3: Probability-Based Setup**
It's 8:05 AM ET and the indicator shows "London Partially Engulfs Upwards":
- You now know there's an 81.51% historical probability NY will take out London's high
- There's a 53.16% probability NY will reach down to Asia's low
- The NY Cash session has a slight bullish bias (55.52%)
- Consider this alongside your technical analysis for directional bias and level targeting
## Customization Options
### Visual Settings
- **Line Width**: Adjust thickness of ADR levels
- **ADR Color/Style**: Customize appearance of ADR projection lines (solid, dashed, dotted)
- **Median Line**: Toggle visibility and customize appearance separately
- **Session Box Colors**: Customize each session's box color independently
- **Show Session Boxes**: Toggle session box visibility on/off
### Label Settings
- **ADR Labels**: Show/hide labels for ADR High and ADR Low, adjust size
- **Median Label**: Separate control for median line label
- **Session Labels**: Show/hide session name labels, adjust size
- **Label Colors**: Customize text colors for all labels
### Table Settings
- **Session Stats Table**: Position (9 locations available), size (Tiny to Huge), toggle on/off
- **Sample Sizes**: Show/hide the number of historical samples used for each calculation
- **Probabilities Table**: Separate position and size controls, toggle on/off
### Session Times
- Each session's time range can be customized to fit different markets or preferences
- All times are in Eastern Time (America/New_York timezone)
## Technical Notes
### Data Requirements
- The indicator requires sufficient historical data based on your lookback settings
- Minimum recommended: 50+ days of intraday data for reliable statistics
- Works on any timeframe below Daily (1-minute, 5-minute, 15-minute, etc.)
### Calculation Methodology
- **ADR Calculation**: Simple average of absolute daily high-low ranges
- **Session Statistics**: Mean average of ranges for each session filtered by day of week
- **Condition Detection**: Boolean logic comparing session high/low relationships
- All calculations update in real-time as new bars form
### Probability Data Source
The probability statistics displayed in the dynamic table are derived from:
- **Dataset**: 12 years of NQ (Nasdaq E-mini futures) historical data
- **Methodology**: Frequency analysis of outcomes following specific setup conditions
- **Time Period**: Multiple market cycles including various volatility regimes
**Critical Warning**: These probabilities are specific to NQ and reflect that instrument's behavior patterns. Market microstructure, participant behavior, and volatility characteristics differ significantly across instruments. Do not apply these NQ-derived probabilities to other markets (ES, RTY, YM, individual stocks, forex, commodities, etc.).
## Best Practices
1. **Combine with Other Analysis**: Use this indicator as one component of a complete trading methodology, not a standalone system
2. **Respect Risk Management**: Probabilities are not certainties; always use proper position sizing and stop losses
3. **Context Matters**: High-impact news events, holiday trading, and extreme volatility can invalidate typical patterns
4. **Verify Statistics**: Monitor your own results and compare to the displayed probabilities
5. **Adapt Session Times**: If trading instruments with different active hours, adjust session times accordingly
6. **Regular Calibration**: Periodically review if the session averages and probabilities remain relevant to current market conditions
## Understanding Originality
This indicator is original in its approach to combining three analytical frameworks into a single tool:
1. **Dynamic ADR Projection**: Unlike static pivot points, these levels adapt daily based on recent volatility
2. **Session-Specific Statistics**: Goes beyond simple volume profiles by quantifying average ranges for specific time windows across weekdays
3. **Conditional Probability Display**: Automatically detects overnight session relationships and displays relevant probability data rather than showing all scenarios simultaneously
The conditional logic system that determines which probability set to display is a key differentiator—traders only see the statistics relevant to the current market setup, reducing information overload and improving decision-making clarity.
## Summary
The **Statistical Daily Profile & Ranges** indicator provides traders with a comprehensive framework for understanding daily range potential, session-specific behavior patterns, and probability-based setup analysis. By combining ADR projection levels with detailed session statistics and dynamic probability displays, traders gain multiple perspectives on potential price movement within the trading day.
The indicator is most effective when used to:
- Set realistic profit targets based on average daily range
- Identify which sessions typically produce movement on specific weekdays
- Understand probability-weighted outcomes for different overnight setup conditions (NQ only)
- Visualize session ranges and compare them to historical averages
Remember that all statistical analysis reflects historical patterns, and market behavior can change. Always combine indicator signals with sound risk management, proper position sizing, and your own market analysis.
Liquidity Sweep Guardian (Universal % or point based)
Liquidity Sweep Guardian - Complete User Guide
## Overview
The **Liquidity Sweep Guardian** is a visual warning system designed to prevent premature counter-trend trades (fades) near Previous Day High (PDH) and Previous Day Low (PDL) levels. This indicator helps you avoid one of the most common trading mistakes: fading too early before liquidity sweeps complete.
---
## 🎯 Core Trading Principle
### **THE GOLDEN RULE: Don't Fade Until It's Unlocked**
Price often **accelerates into key levels** to sweep liquidity before reversing. Trading against this momentum is extremely dangerous.
**The Process:**
1. **Danger Zone** (Red/White Box) = ⚠️ **DO NOT FADE** - Sweep likely incoming
2. **Sweep Occurs** (Triangle marker appears) = Price penetrates the level
3. **Reclaim Happens** (Price returns above/below level) = Level is tested
4. **🔓 UNLOCKED** (Gold border, green label) = **NOW you may CONSIDER a fade**
> **Important:** "UNLOCKED" means you may now *consider* a fade setup. It is NOT a trade signal itself. You still need your entry confirmation, risk management, and trade plan.
---
## 📊 Visual Elements Explained
### 1. **Danger Zone Boxes (Red Border by Default)**
**Two types of zones around PDH/PDL:**
- **Outer Danger Zone** (White fill): ±75pts (or 0.30%) around the level
- Indicates proximity to a key level where sweeps commonly occur
- Yellow/cautious trading zone
- **Inner Critical Zone** (Black fill): ±25pts (or 0.10%) around the level
- Highest probability area for liquidity sweep traps
- Avoid fading here at all costs
**What to do:**
- When price enters these zones, **wait and watch**
- Do not initiate counter-trend positions
- Allow the sweep to play out
### 2. **Unlocked Zones (Gold Border #ffeb3b)**
When a zone turns **gold/yellow** with green fill:
- The level has been swept AND reclaimed
- The liquidity grab is complete
- You may now look for fade opportunities with proper confirmation
### 3. **PDH/PDL Lines**
- **PDH Line** (Red): Previous Day High with price label
- **PDL Line** (Green): Previous Day Low with price label
- These are your key reference levels for the session
### 4. **Sweep Labels**
**Triangle Markers (SWEEP):**
- **Green Triangle** = Clean sweep (10-25pts penetration)
- **Orange Triangle** = Extended sweep (25-50pts penetration)
- **Red Triangle** = Deep penetration (50+ pts) - likely continuation, not reversal
**Warning Labels:**
- **⚠️ DEEP CONTINUATION?** = Penetration too deep, probably NOT a reversal setup
**Unlock Labels:**
- **🔓 LONG UNLOCKED** = PDL swept and reclaimed, may consider long fades
- **🔓 SHORT UNLOCKED** = PDH swept and reclaimed, may consider short fades
---
## ⚙️ Settings Guide
### **Calculation Mode**
**Use Percentage Mode (Default: ON)**
- ✅ **Enabled**: Universal mode - works on NQ, ES, RTY, stocks, crypto, forex
- ❌ **Disabled**: Fixed points mode - for specific instruments only
**When to use each:**
- **Percentage Mode**: Trading multiple instruments, or instruments with varying price levels
- **Fixed Points Mode**: Single instrument focus (e.g., only trading NQ at current levels)
### **Danger Zone Settings**
**Percentage Mode (Default for Universal Use):**
- **Danger Zone**: 0.30% each side (≈75pts on NQ@25,000)
- **Critical Zone**: 0.10% each side (≈25pts on NQ@25,000)
**Fixed Points Mode (For NQ Specifically):**
- **Danger Zone**: 75 points each side
- **Critical Zone**: 25 points each side
**Adjustment Tips:**
- For more volatile instruments: Increase percentages/points
- For less volatile instruments: Decrease percentages/points
- For higher timeframes: Use wider zones
- For lower timeframes: Use tighter zones
### **Sweep Classification**
**What defines a "real" sweep:**
- **Minimum**: 10pts / 0.04% - Shallow penetration may not grab enough liquidity
- **Optimal**: 10-25pts / 0.04-0.10% - "Goldilocks zone" for reversal setups
- **Extended**: 25-50pts / 0.10-0.20% - Deeper sweep, less reliable
- **Continuation**: 50+pts / 0.20%+ - Too deep, likely NOT reversing
**Max Bars for Reclaim**: 5 bars (default)
- Price should reclaim the level relatively quickly
- If it takes too long, the sweep may have failed
### **Visual Customization**
**Box Settings:**
- **Left Extension**: 60 bars (how far back the box extends)
- **Right Extension**: 50 bars (how far forward the box extends)
**Toggle Options:**
- Show/Hide Danger Zone Boxes
- Show/Hide PDH/PDL Lines
- Show/Hide Price Labels on lines
- Show/Hide Sweep Labels
- Show/Hide Unlock Labels
### **Color Customization**
All colors are fully customizable:
- Danger Zone Fill & Border
- Critical Zone Fill & Border
- Unlocked Zone Fill & Border
- PDH/PDL Line Colors
- PDH/PDL Label Colors
- Border Widths (1-5 pixels)
- Line Widths (1-5 pixels)
---
## 🎓 Trading Strategy Examples
### **Example 1: Long Setup at PDL**
1. **Morning**: Price approaches PDL (danger zone appears)
2. **Don't Fade Yet**: Price enters critical zone - resist urge to buy
3. **Sweep**: Price drops 15pts below PDL (green triangle appears)
4. **Reclaim**: Price closes back above PDL within 3 bars
5. **🔓 UNLOCKED**: Gold border + "LONG UNLOCKED" label appears
6. **Trade Setup**: Now look for bullish confirmation (order flow, structure, etc.)
### **Example 2: Avoiding a Trap at PDH**
1. **Afternoon**: Price rallies into PDH danger zone
2. **Temptation**: You want to short here (it "looks toppy")
3. **Sweep**: Price breaks 50pts above PDH (red triangle + ⚠️ warning)
4. **Continuation**: Deep penetration suggests continuation, not reversal
5. **Result**: No unlock occurs, price keeps running higher - trap avoided!
### **Example 3: Failed Unlock (No Trade)**
1. Price sweeps PDL by 12pts (green triangle)
2. Price struggles to reclaim PDL, stays below for 10+ bars
3. No "UNLOCKED" label appears
4. **Correct Action**: Do not fade - sweep failed to reclaim
---
## 📱 Alerts
The indicator includes built-in alerts for:
- **Entering Danger Zones**: Get warned when price approaches PDH/PDL
- **Sweep Detection**: Know immediately when a level is swept
- **Unlock Signals**: Get notified when fade setups become available
- **Continuation Warnings**: Alert when penetration suggests continuation
**To Set Alerts:**
1. Right-click indicator → "Add Alert"
2. Select desired alert condition
3. Configure notification preferences
---
## ⚠️ Important Disclaimers
### **What This Indicator IS:**
✅ A visual warning system to prevent premature fades
✅ A tool to identify when liquidity sweeps have completed
✅ A framework for counter-trend trade timing
### **What This Indicator IS NOT:**
❌ A complete trading system
❌ An entry signal generator
❌ A guarantee of trade success
❌ A substitute for proper risk management
### **Always Remember:**
- "UNLOCKED" = You may CONSIDER a fade (not a signal to trade)
- You still need your own entry confirmation
- You still need proper stop placement
- You still need position sizing and risk management
- Not every unlock leads to a successful trade
- Market context and order flow still matter
---
## 🔧 Recommended Settings by Instrument
### **NQ (Nasdaq-100 E-mini Futures)**
- Mode: Percentage or Fixed Points
- Percentage: 0.30% / 0.10% (default)
- Fixed Points: 75pts / 25pts (default)
### **ES (S&P 500 E-mini Futures)**
- Mode: Percentage
- Danger: 0.25% / Critical: 0.08%
- Or Fixed Points: 15pts / 5pts
### **RTY (Russell 2000 E-mini Futures)**
- Mode: Percentage
- Danger: 0.35% / Critical: 0.12%
- Or Fixed Points: 8pts / 3pts
### **Stocks (High Volume Large Caps)**
- Mode: Percentage (recommended)
- Danger: 0.20-0.40% / Critical: 0.08-0.15%
- Adjust based on ATR and volatility
### **Crypto (BTC, ETH)**
- Mode: Percentage (essential)
- Danger: 0.40-0.60% / Critical: 0.15-0.20%
- Higher volatility requires wider zones
---
## 💡 Pro Tips
1. **Use on Higher Timeframes**: Works best on 5min, 15min, 1hr charts
2. **Combine with Order Flow**: Use with footprint/delta for confirmation
3. **Watch Volume**: Strong volume on sweep = better reversal potential
4. **Consider Time of Day**: Sweeps during RTH often more reliable
5. **Multiple Timeframes**: Check if higher TF also shows unlock
6. **Don't Force Trades**: Not every session produces clean setups
7. **Journal Results**: Track which unlock types work best for you
8. **Respect Continuation Signals**: When indicator says "too deep," listen
---
## 🆘 Troubleshooting
**Q: Box isn't showing up**
A: Check that "Show Danger Zone Boxes" is enabled in Visual Settings
**Q: No price on labels**
A: Enable "Show Price Labels on Lines" in Visual Settings
**Q: Zones seem too tight/wide**
A: Adjust Danger Zone % or points based on current volatility
**Q: Getting too many/too few unlocks**
A: Adjust sweep classification thresholds (min/max penetration)
**Q: Want thicker/thinner lines**
A: Adjust line widths in "PDH/PDL Line Colors" section
**Q: Colors not matching my chart theme**
A: Fully customize all colors in the color settings groups
---
## 📚 Additional Resources
- Study price action around PDH/PDL on your instruments
- Learn about liquidity sweeps and stop hunts
- Understand market structure and order flow
- Practice identifying setups on replay/historical data
- Keep a trading journal of unlock scenarios
---
*Remember: The best trade is often the one you don't take. This indicator helps you avoid the trades you shouldn't take, so you can focus on the ones you should.*
Bollinger Bands + MA 50/100/200📊 Bollinger Bands + MA 50 / 100 / 200 Indicator
This indicator combines Bollinger Bands with key Moving Averages (50, 100, 200) to help you spot trend direction, volatility, and potential reversal zones in one clean view.
🔹 Bollinger Bands
* Customizable length & MA type (SMA, EMA, RMA, WMA, VWMA)
* Visualizes market volatility
* Upper & lower bands help identify overbought / oversold conditions
🔹 Moving Averages
* MA 50 → Short-term trend
* MA 100 → Medium-term trend
* MA 200 → Long-term trend & major support/resistance
* Easy toggle on/off for clean charting
💡 How to use
* Price near upper band + strong MA trend → possible continuation
* Price near lower band → watch for bounce or breakdown
* MA alignment (50 > 100 > 200) → bullish trend
* MA cross & BB squeeze → potential breakout incoming
⚠️ Best used with price action & risk management
📌 Works on stocks, crypto, forex, indices
First Candle Range (FCR) Gold Strategy - EtubersThe 18:00 (6:00 PM) candle is widely used by traders in the Forex and Futures markets because it marks the New York market rollover and the start of the Asian session.
How the Strategy Works:
- The Range: The High and Low prices of the 1-hour candle (18:00–19:00) create a "Supply and Demand" zone.
- The Breakout: A candle closing above the high signals a bullish breakout; a candle closing below the low signals a bearish breakout.
- Institutional Memory: By extending this zone forward for 4 days, traders can identify where "old" 18:00 levels act as support or resistance in the future.
- Execution: Traders often wait for a breakout followed by a "retest" of the box boundary to enter a high-probability trade.
Effort-Result Divergence [Interakktive]The Effort-Result Divergence (ERD) measures whether volume effort is producing proportional price result. It quantifies the classic Wyckoff principle: when price moves easily, momentum is real; when price struggles despite heavy volume, absorption is occurring.
Think of ERD as "energy efficiency" for price movement — green means price is gliding, red means price is grinding.
█ WHAT IT DOES
• Measures volume EFFORT relative to average volume
• Measures price RESULT relative to ATR-normalized movement
• Computes ERD = Result minus Effort (each scaled 0-100)
• Flags statistical divergences via Z-score analysis
• Absorption events: high effort, low result (negative ERD)
• Vacuum events: low effort, high result (positive ERD)
█ WHAT IT DOES NOT DO
• NO buy/sell signals
• NO entry/exit recommendations
• NO alerts (v1 is educational only)
• NO performance claims or guarantees
This is a context tool for understanding market participation quality.
█ HOW IT WORKS
The ERD analyzes two dimensions of market activity and compares them.
EFFORT (Volume Intensity)
Compares current volume to a moving average baseline:
Effort Ratio = Volume ÷ SMA(Volume, Length)
Effort Score = clamp(100 × Effort Ratio ÷ Effort Cap)
High effort means above-average volume participation.
Low effort means below-average volume participation.
RESULT (Price Efficiency)
Measures how much price moved relative to expected volatility:
Result Ratio = |Close − Previous Close| ÷ ATR
Result Score = clamp(100 × Result Ratio ÷ Result Cap)
High result means price moved significantly for the volatility regime.
Low result means price barely moved despite market activity.
ERD SCORE
ERD = Result − Effort
• Positive ERD: Result exceeds effort → price moved easily (vacuum/thin liquidity)
• Negative ERD: Effort exceeds result → price struggled (absorption/accumulation)
• Near zero: Balanced effort-to-result relationship
STATISTICAL DIVERGENCE DETECTION
Z-score analysis identifies statistically significant extremes:
Z = (ERD − Mean) ÷ StdDev
• Absorption Event: Z ≤ −threshold (extreme negative ERD)
• Vacuum Event: Z ≥ +threshold (extreme positive ERD)
█ INTERPRETATION
GREEN BARS (Positive ERD)
Price moved with relatively little volume effort. This suggests:
• Thin liquidity / low resistance
• Strong directional interest
• Momentum is "real" — not forced
RED BARS (Negative ERD)
Heavy volume was used but price barely moved. This suggests:
• Absorption / accumulation occurring
• Large players opposing the move
• Inefficiency — someone is working hard for little result
THE KEY INSIGHT
When you see:
• Down moves = high effort (red spikes)
• Up moves = low effort (green bars)
This means: It's easier for price to go up than down.
That is asymmetric strength — classic bullish pressure.
The reverse (red on up moves, green on down moves) signals bearish pressure.
PRACTICAL RULES
Without any other indicators:
• Avoid shorting when ERD is mostly green and red spikes appear only on down candles
• Be cautious buying when ERD turns red on up candles (signals absorption of buying pressure)
• Vacuum events (extreme green) often precede continuation or pause — not violent reversal
• Absorption events (extreme red) often precede reversals or range formation
█ VOLUME DATA NOTE
This indicator uses the volume variable which represents:
• Exchange volume on stocks and futures
• Tick volume on Forex and CFD instruments
Tick volume is a proxy for activity, not actual exchange volume. The indicator remains useful on Forex as relative volume comparisons are still meaningful, but interpretation should account for this limitation.
█ INPUTS
Core Settings
• Volume Average Length: Baseline period for effort calculation (default: 20)
• ATR Length: Volatility normalization period (default: 14)
• Effort Cap: Volume ratio that maps to 100% effort (default: 3.0)
• Result Cap: ATR multiple that maps to 100% result (default: 1.0)
Divergence Detection
• Z-Score Lookback: Statistical analysis window (default: 100)
• Z-Score Threshold: Standard deviations for event flags (default: 2.0)
Visual Settings
• Show ERD Histogram: Toggle main display
• Show Zero Line: Toggle reference line
• Show Divergence Markers: Toggle event circles
• Show Effort/Result Lines: Display component breakdown
█ ORIGINALITY
While Wyckoff's effort-versus-result principle is well-established, existing implementations are typically:
• Purely visual with no quantification
• Pattern-based requiring subjective interpretation
• Not statistically normalized for comparison across instruments
ERD is original because it:
1. Normalizes both effort and result to 0-100 scales for direct comparison
2. Uses ATR for result normalization (adapts to volatility regime)
3. Applies statistical Z-score for objective divergence detection
4. Provides quantified output suitable for systematic analysis
█ DATA WINDOW EXPORTS
When enabled, the following values are exported:
• Effort (0-100)
• Result (0-100)
• ERD Score
• Z-Score
• Absorption Event (1/0)
• Vacuum Event (1/0)
█ SUITABLE MARKETS
Works on: Stocks, Futures, Forex, Crypto
Best on: Instruments with reliable volume data (stocks, futures, crypto)
Timeframes: All timeframes — interpretation adapts accordingly
█ RELATED
• Market Efficiency Ratio — measures price path efficiency
• Wyckoff Volume Spread Analysis — conceptual foundation
█ DISCLAIMER
This indicator is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own analysis before making trading decisions.
Multi-Timeframe High Low Marking LinesThis indicator automatically draws clean horizontal lines at the high and low of the previous 10 periods (adjustable) for four different timeframes simultaneously: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, and Quarterly.
Perfect for marking key support/resistance levels across multiple timeframes on any chart.
Key features:
• Shows previous 10 highs and lows per timeframe (change to 5, 15, 20 etc. in settings)
• Lines extend 20 bars to the right so they remain visible (adjustable)
• Individual on/off switch for each timeframe
• Clean blue lines, max 500 lines limit respected
• Works perfectly on any chart timeframe (1-minute to monthly)
• No repainting – lines only appear after the period has closed
Use cases:
Spot major daily/weekly/monthly support & resistance at a glance
Trade breakouts and reversals with higher-timeframe confirmation
Combine with your existing strategy (ICT, SMC, price action)
Ideal for stocks, forex, crypto and futures
Settings explained:
Timeframe 1–4 → Choose any timeframe (D, W, M, 3M already preset)
Show/Hide → Turn any timeframe on or off instantly
Periods to show → How many previous highs/lows you want visible
Extend lines → How far right each line continues (default 20 bars)
Completely free to use.
If you like it, please add to favorites and leave a comment – it helps other traders find it!
Enjoy cleaner charts and stronger confluence.
Happy trading!
Market Efficiency Ratio [Interakktive]The Market Efficiency Ratio decomposes price movement into two components: net progress vs wasted movement. This tool exposes the underlying math that most traders never see, helping you understand when price is moving efficiently versus chopping sideways.
Unlike simple trend indicators, this shows you WHY price movement matters — not just whether it's up or down, but how much of that movement was useful directional progress versus noisy oscillation.
█ WHAT IT DOES
• Calculates Efficiency Ratio (0–1 or 0–100) measuring directional progress
• Exposes Net Displacement (how far price actually moved)
• Exposes Path Length (total distance price traveled)
• Calculates Chop Cost (wasted movement)
• Visual zones for high/mid/low efficiency states
█ WHAT IT DOES NOT DO
• NO signals, NO entries/exits, NO buy/sell
• NO performance claims
• NO predictions — purely diagnostic
• This is a tool for understanding price behavior
█ HOW IT WORKS
The efficiency ratio answers one question: "Of all the movement price made, how much was useful progress?"
🔹 THE MATH
Over a lookback period of N bars:
Net Displacement = |Close - Close |
Path Length = Σ |Close - Close | for all bars
Efficiency Ratio = Net Displacement / Path Length
🔹 INTERPRETATION
• Efficiency = 1.0 (100%): Price moved in a straight line — every tick was progress
• Efficiency = 0.5 (50%): Half the movement was wasted in back-and-forth chop
• Efficiency = 0.0 (0%): Price ended exactly where it started — all movement was noise
🔹 CHOP COST
This is the "wasted movement" — how much price traveled without making progress:
Chop Cost = Path Length - Net Displacement
Chop % = Chop Cost / Path Length
High chop cost means lots of effort for little result — a warning sign for trend traders.
█ VISUAL GUIDE
Three efficiency zones:
• GREEN (≥70): High efficiency — strong directional movement
• YELLOW (30-70): Mixed efficiency — some progress, some chop
• RED (<30): Low efficiency — mostly noise, little progress
█ INPUTS
Lookback Length (default: 14)
Number of bars to calculate efficiency over. Higher values produce smoother readings but respond slower to changes.
Smoothing Length (default: 5)
EMA smoothing applied to the output. Reduces noise in the efficiency reading.
Apply Smoothing (default: true)
Toggle EMA smoothing on/off.
Scale Mode (default: 0–100)
Display as percentage (0-100) or decimal ratio (0-1).
Show Reference Bands (default: true)
Display the high/low efficiency threshold lines.
Low/High Efficiency Level (default: 30/70)
Thresholds for classifying efficiency zones.
Overlay Effect (default: None)
• None: No overlay
• Background Tint: Subtle chart background color in high/low zones
• Bar Highlight: Color bars during low efficiency periods
Show Data Window Values (default: true)
Export all raw values (Net Displacement, Path Length, Efficiency, Chop Cost, Chop %) to the data window for analysis.
█ USE CASES
This indicator helps traders understand:
• Why some trends are "clean" and others are "messy"
• When price is consolidating vs trending (without using volume)
• The relationship between movement and progress
• Why high-chop environments are difficult to trade
This is the foundational concept behind more advanced regime detection systems.
█ SUITABLE MARKETS
Works on: Stocks, Futures, Forex, Crypto
Timeframes: All timeframes
Note: This is a price-only indicator — no volume required
█ DISCLAIMER
This indicator is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. It does not generate trading signals. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own analysis.
High Volume Breakout DetectorThis indicator is a dedicated volume analysis tool displayed in a separate pane below the price chart. It visually highlights significant volume surges (spikes) by comparing the current bar's volume to a dynamic threshold based on a Simple Moving Average (SMA) of volume.
Key Concepts and Methodology:
- The core calculation uses a user-configurable Simple Moving Average (default: 20 periods) of historical volume to establish a baseline of "normal" trading activity.
- A customizable multiplier (default: 1.50, meaning 150% of the SMA) defines the threshold for a volume spike. When the current bar's volume meets or exceeds this threshold, it is classified as a spike—indicating unusually high participation that often accompanies breakouts, reversals, climaxes, or institutional activity.
- Volume bars are plotted as columns and colored based on two factors:
- Candle direction: Green shades for bullish candles (close ≥ open), red shades for bearish candles (close < open).
- Spike status: Brighter/solid colors for confirmed spikes, muted/translucent colors for normal volume. This candle-matched coloring helps traders quickly assess whether the surge supports buying pressure (green spike on up candle) or selling/distribution (red spike on down candle).
- Optional overlays include the volume SMA line (blue) and the dynamic threshold line (orange, plotted as circles for easy distinction).
Features and Customization:
- Fully adjustable inputs: SMA length, multiplier threshold, colors for up/down/normal/spike bars, and toggles for showing the SMA line, threshold line, or background highlighting on spikes.
- Built-in alert condition triggers reliably on volume spikes (≥ selected multiplier of SMA), with a constant message string including ticker, timeframe, volume value, and threshold reference.
How to Use:
- Add to any chart in a separate pane (overlay=false).
- Look for brighter colored volume bars as potential signals of conviction in price moves. For example:
- Green spikes on up candles may signal strong accumulation or breakout confirmation.
- Red spikes on down candles may indicate distribution or exhaustion selling.
- Combine with price action, support/resistance, or trend indicators for confluence.
- Ideal for day trading, swing trading, or spotting volume climaxes on stocks, forex, crypto, or futures across any timeframe.
The unique combination of candle-direction-matched coloring for spikes, visual threshold plotting, and focused spike highlighting provides clearer, more actionable insight into directional volume pressure compared to standard volume displays.
First presented FVG (w/stats) w/statistical hourly ranges & biasOverview
This indicator identifies the first Fair Value Gap (FVG) that forms during each hourly session and provides comprehensive statistical analysis based on 12 years of historical NASDAQ (NQ) data. It combines price action analysis with probability-based statistics to help traders make informed decisions.
⚠️ IMPORTANT - Compatibility
Market: This indicator is designed exclusively for NASDAQ futures (NQ/MNQ)
Timeframe: Statistical data is based on FVGs formed on the 5-minute timeframe
FVG Detection: Works on any timeframe, but use 5-minute for accuracy matching the statistical analysis
All hardcoded statistics are derived from 12 years of NQ historical data
What It Does
1. FVG Detection & Visualization
Automatically detects the first FVG (bullish or bearish) that forms each hour
Draws colored boxes around FVGs:
Blue boxes = Bullish FVG (gap up)
Red boxes = Bearish FVG (gap down)
FVG boxes extend to the end of the hour
Optional midpoint lines show the center of each FVG
Uses volume imbalance logic (outside prints) to refine FVG boundaries
2. Hourly Reference Lines
Vertical Delimiter: Marks the start of each hour
Hourly Open Line: Shows where the current hour opened
Expected Range Lines: Projects the anticipated high/low based on historical data
Choose between Mean (average) or Median (middle value) statistics
Upper range line (teal/green)
Lower range line (red)
All lines span exactly one hour from the moment it opens
Optional labels show price values at line ends
3. Real-Time Statistics Table
The table displays live data for the current hour only:
Hour: Current hour in 12-hour format (AM/PM)
FVG Status: Shows if a Bull FVG, Bear FVG, or no FVG has formed yet
Green background = Bullish FVG detected
Red background = Bearish FVG detected
1st 15min: Direction of the first 15 minutes (Bullish/Bearish/Neutral/Pending)
Continuation %: Historical probability that the hour continues in the first 15-minute direction
Color-coded: Green for bullish, red for bearish
Avg Range %: Expected percentage range for the current hour (based on 12-year mean)
FVG Effect %: Historical probability that FVG direction predicts hourly close direction
Shows BISI→Bull % for bullish FVGs
Shows SIBI→Bear % for bearish FVGs
Blank if no FVG has formed yet
Time Left: Countdown timer showing MM:SS remaining in the hour (updates in real-time)
Hourly Bias: Historical directional tendency (bullish % or bearish %)
H Open: Current hour's opening price
Exp Range: Projected price range (Low - High) based on historical average
Customization Options
Detection Settings:
Lower Timeframe Selection (15S, 1min, 5min) - controls FVG detection granularity
Display Settings:
FVG box colors (bullish/bearish)
Midpoint lines (show/hide, color, style)
Table Settings:
Position (9 locations: corners, edges, center)
Text size (Tiny, Small, Normal, Large)
Hourly Lines:
Toggle each line type on/off
Hour delimiter (color, width)
Open line (color, width, style)
Range lines (color, width, style)
Choose Mean or Median statistics for range calculation
Show/hide labels with customizable text size
How to Use
Apply to NQ futures chart (NQ1! or MNQ1!)
Set chart to 5-minute timeframe for optimal FVG detection matching the statistical data
Watch for the first FVG to form each hour
Reference the table for probability-based decision support:
High continuation % = strong directional bias
FVG Effect % shows reliability of the FVG signal
Time Left helps manage entries/exits within the hour
Use range lines as potential targets or reversal zones
Statistical Foundation
All statistics are derived from:
12 years of NASDAQ (NQ) historical data
Hourly analysis of FVG formation patterns
First 15-minute directional analysis
Mean and Median calculations for range expectations
Data encompasses 2,400+ samples per hour
Best Practices
✅ Use on NQ/MNQ futures only
✅ Best on 5-minute charts (matches statistical data)
✅ Combine FVG signals with continuation probabilities
✅ Use range lines as potential profit targets
✅ Watch the countdown timer for hour-end setups
❌ Do not use on other markets (statistics won't apply)
❌ Avoid using during low-liquidity hours (5PM ET has minimal data)
Technical Notes
Timezone: America/New_York (EST/EDT)
Weekend filtering: Automatically hides data during market closure
Updates in real-time on live bars
Maximum 500 boxes/lines for performance
FVG detection includes volume imbalance (body gap) refinement
Credits
Statistical analysis based on 12 years of NASDAQ historical data. FVG detection methodology follows ICT concepts with volume imbalance refinement.
Disclaimer: This indicator provides statistical analysis based on historical data. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always use proper risk management.
Would you like me to adjust any section or add/remove anything?6-9 Session & Levels - Customizable Range Analysis Indicator
Description:
This indicator provides comprehensive session-based range analysis designed for intraday traders. It calculates and displays key levels based on a customizable session period (default 6:00-9:00 AM ET).
Core Features:
Sespastedthis is a summary for another indicator- i was hoping for something more like this in terms of content etc22:23Architected comprehensive indicator summary matching professional documentation style.The user wants me to rewrite the summary for their FVG indicator in a similar style to the example provided. The example is more structured, detailed, and professional. Let me create a comprehensive summary that follows that format:
Clear title
Description/Overview
Core Features (broken down into sections)
Input Settings Explained (detailed breakdown of all customization options)
How It Works section
Use Case
Note/Disclaimer
Let me make it thorough and match the style while being accurate to their indicator's functionality.Here's a detailed summary in that format:
Every Hour 1st FVG with Statistical Analysis - NASDAQ Hourly Trading Intelligence
Description:
This indicator identifies the first Fair Value Gap (FVG) that forms during each hourly session and provides comprehensive probability-based statistical analysis derived from 12 years of NASDAQ (NQ) historical data. It combines real-time FVG detection with hardcoded statistical probabilities to help intraday traders make informed decisions based on historical patterns and hourly price action dynamics.
IMPORTANT: This indicator is specifically calibrated for NASDAQ futures (NQ/MNQ) only. All statistical data is derived from 12 years of NQ historical analysis with FVGs detected on the 5-minute timeframe. Using this indicator on other markets will produce invalid statistical results.
Core Features:
FVG Detection & Visualization
Automatically detects and displays the first Fair Value Gap (bullish or bearish) that forms within each hourly session
Color-coded boxes mark FVG zones: Blue for bullish FVGs (gap up), Red for bearish FVGs (gap down)
FVG boxes extend precisely to the end of the hour boundary
Optional midpoint lines show the center point of each FVG
Uses volume imbalance logic (outside prints) to refine FVG boundaries beyond simple wick-to-wick gaps
Supports both chart timeframe detection and lower timeframe detection via request.security_lower_tf
Hourly Reference Lines
Vertical Hour Delimiter: Marks the exact start of each new hour with an extendable vertical line
Hourly Open Line: Displays the opening price of the current hour
Expected Range Lines: Projects anticipated high and low levels based on 12 years of statistical data
Choose between Mean (average) or Median (middle value) calculations
Upper range line shows expected high
Lower range line shows expected low
All lines span exactly one hour from open to close
Optional labels display exact price values at the end of each line
Real-Time Statistics Table
Displays comprehensive live data for the current hour only:
Hour: Current hour in 12-hour format (e.g., "9AM", "2PM")
FVG Status: Shows detection state with color coding
"None Yet" (white background) - No FVG detected
"Bull FVG" (green background) - Bullish FVG identified
"Bear FVG" (red background) - Bearish FVG identified
1st 15min: Direction of first 15 minutes (Bullish/Bearish/Neutral/Pending)
Continuation %: Historical probability that the hour closes in the direction of the first 15 minutes
Green background with up arrow (↑) for bullish continuation probability
Red background with down arrow (↓) for bearish continuation probability
Avg Range %: Expected percentage range for the current hour based on 12-year mean
FVG Effect %: Historical effectiveness of FVG directional prediction
Shows "BISI→Bull %" for bullish FVGs (gap up predicting bullish hourly close)
Shows "SIBI→Bear %" for bearish FVGs (gap down predicting bearish hourly close)
Displays blank if no FVG has formed yet
Time Left: Real-time countdown timer showing minutes and seconds remaining in the hour (MM:SS format)
Hourly Bias: Historical directional tendency showing bullish or bearish percentage bias
H Open: Current hour's opening price
Exp Range: Projected price range showing "Low - High" based on selected statistic (mean or median)
Input Settings Explained:
Detection Settings
Lower Timeframe: Select the base timeframe for FVG detection
Options: 15S (15 seconds), 1 (1 minute), 5 (5 minutes)
Recommendation: Use 5-minute to match the statistical data sample
The indicator uses this timeframe to scan for FVG patterns even when viewing higher timeframes
Display Settings
Bullish FVG Color: Set the color and transparency for bullish (upward) FVG boxes
Bearish FVG Color: Set the color and transparency for bearish (downward) FVG boxes
Show Midpoint Lines: Toggle horizontal lines at the center of each FVG box
Midpoint Line Color: Customize the midpoint line color
Midpoint Line Style: Choose between Solid, Dotted, or Dashed line styles
Table Settings
Table Position: Choose from 9 locations:
Top: Left, Center, Right
Middle: Left, Center, Right
Bottom: Left, Center, Right
Table Text Size: Select from Tiny, Small, Normal, or Large for readability on different screen sizes
Hourly Lines Settings
Show Hourly Lines: Master toggle for all hourly reference lines
Show Hour Delimiter: Toggle the vertical line marking each hour's start
Delimiter Color: Customize color and transparency
Delimiter Width: Set line thickness (1-5)
Show Hourly Open: Toggle the horizontal line at the hour's opening price
Open Line Color: Customize color
Open Line Width: Set thickness (1-5)
Open Line Style: Choose Solid, Dashed, or Dotted
Show Range Lines: Toggle the expected high/low projection lines
Range Statistic: Choose "Mean" (12-year average) or "Median" (12-year middle value)
Range High Color: Customize upper range line color and transparency
Range Low Color: Customize lower range line color and transparency
Range Line Width: Set thickness (1-5)
Range Line Style: Choose Solid, Dashed, or Dotted
Show Line Labels: Toggle price labels at the end of all horizontal lines
Label Text Size: Choose Tiny, Small, or Normal
How It Works:
FVG Detection Logic:
The indicator scans price action on the selected lower timeframe (default: 1-minute) looking for Fair Value Gaps using a 3-candle pattern:
Bullish FVG: Formed when candle 's high is below candle 's low, creating an upward gap
Bearish FVG: Formed when candle 's low is above candle 's high, creating a downward gap
The detection is refined using volume imbalance logic by checking for body gaps (outside prints) on both sides of the middle candle. This narrows the FVG zone to areas where bodies don't touch, indicating stronger imbalances.
Only the first FVG that forms during each hour is displayed. If a bullish FVG forms first, it takes priority. The FVG box is drawn from the formation time through to the end of the hour.
Statistical Analysis:
All probability statistics are hardcoded from 12 years (2,400+ samples per hour) of NASDAQ futures analysis:
First 15-Minute Direction: At 15 minutes into each hour, the indicator determines if price closed above, below, or equal to the hour's opening price
Continuation Probability: Historical analysis shows the likelihood that the hour closes in the same direction as the first 15 minutes
Example: If 9AM's first 15 minutes are bullish, there's a 60.1% chance the entire 9AM hour closes bullish (lowest continuation hour)
4PM shows the highest continuation at 86.1% for bullish first 15 minutes
FVG Effectiveness: Tracks how often the first FVG's direction correctly predicts the hourly close direction
BISI (Bullish Imbalance/Sell-side Inefficiency) → Bullish close probability
SIBI (Bearish Imbalance/Buy-side Inefficiency) → Bearish close probability
Range Expectations: Mean and median values represent typical price movement percentage for each hour
9AM and 10AM show the largest ranges (~0.6%)
5PM shows minimal range (~0.06%) due to low liquidity
Hourly Reference Lines:
When each new hour begins:
Vertical delimiter marks the hour's start
Hourly open line plots at the first bar's opening price
Range projection lines calculate expected high/low:
Upper Range = Hourly Open + (Range% / 100 × Hourly Open)
Lower Range = Hourly Open - (Range% / 100 × Hourly Open)
Lines extend exactly to the hour's end time
Labels appear at line endpoints showing exact prices
Real-Time Updates:
FVG Status: Updates immediately when the first FVG forms
First 15min Direction: Locked in at the 15-minute mark
Countdown Timer: Uses timenow to update every second
Table Statistics: Refresh on every bar close
Timezone Handling:
All times are in America/New_York (Eastern Time)
Automatically filters weekend periods (Saturday and Sunday before 6PM)
Hour detection accounts for daylight saving time changes
Use Cases:
Intraday Trading Strategy Development:
FVG Entry Signals: Use the first hourly FVG as a directional bias
Bullish FVG + High continuation % = Strong long setup
Bearish FVG + High continuation % = Strong short setup
First 15-Minute Breakout: Combine first 15-min direction with continuation probabilities
Wait for first 15 minutes to complete
If continuation % is above 70%, trade in that direction
Example: 4PM bullish first 15 min = 86.1% chance hour closes bullish
Range Targeting: Use expected high/low lines as profit targets or reversal zones
Price approaching mean high = potential resistance
Price approaching mean low = potential support
Compare mean vs median for different risk tolerance (median is more conservative)
Hour Selection: Focus trading on hours with:
High FVG effectiveness (11AM: 81.5% BISI→Bull)
High continuation rates (4PM: 86.1% bull continuation)
Avoid low-continuation hours like 9AM (60.1%)
Time Management: Use the countdown timer to:
Enter early in the hour when FVG forms
Exit before hour-end if no follow-through
Avoid late-hour entries with <15 minutes remaining
Statistical Edge Identification:
Compare current hour's FVG against historical effectiveness
Identify when first 15-min direction contradicts FVG direction (conflict = caution)
Use hourly bias to confirm or contradict FVG signals
Monitor if price stays within expected range or breaks out (outlier moves)
Risk Management:
Expected range lines provide logical stop-loss placement
FVG Effect % helps size positions (higher % = larger position)
Time Left countdown aids in time-based stop management
Avoid trading hours with neutral bias or low continuation rates
Statistical Foundation:
All embedded statistics are derived from:
12 years of NASDAQ futures (NQ) continuous contract data
5-minute timeframe FVG detection methodology
24 hours per day analysis (excluding weekends)
2,400+ samples per hour for robust statistical validity
America/New_York timezone for session alignment
Data includes:
Hourly range analysis (mean, median, standard deviation)
First 15-minute directional analysis
FVG formation frequency and effectiveness
Continuation probability matrices
Bullish/bearish bias percentages
Best Practices:
✅ Do:
Use exclusively on NASDAQ futures (NQ1! or MNQ1!)
Apply on 5-minute charts for optimal FVG detection matching statistical samples
Wait for first 15 minutes to complete before acting on continuation probabilities
Combine FVG signals with continuation % and FVG Effect % for confluence
Use expected range lines as initial profit targets
Monitor the countdown timer for time-based trade management
Focus on hours with high statistical edges (4PM, 11AM, 10AM)
❌ Don't:
Use on other markets (ES, RTY, YM, stocks, forex, crypto) - statistics will be invalid
Rely solely on FVG without confirming with continuation probabilities
Trade during low-liquidity hours (5PM shows only 0.06% average range)
Ignore the first 15-minute direction when it conflicts with FVG direction
Apply to timeframes significantly different from 5-minute for FVG detection
Use median range expectations aggressively (they're conservative)
Technical Implementation Notes:
Timezone: Fixed to America/New_York with automatic DST adjustment
Weekend Filtering: Automatically hides data Saturday and Sunday before 6PM ET
Performance: Maximum 500 boxes and 500 lines for optimal chart rendering
Update Frequency: Table updates on every bar close; timer updates every second using timenow
FVG Priority: Bullish FVGs take precedence when both form simultaneously
Lower Timeframe Detection: Uses request.security_lower_tf for accurate sub-chart-timeframe FVG detection
Precision: All price labels use format.mintick for appropriate decimal precision
Big thanks to @Trades-Dont-Lie for the FPFVG code in his excellent indicator that I've used here
ORB Fusion🎯 CORE INNOVATION: INSTITUTIONAL ORB FRAMEWORK WITH FAILED BREAKOUT INTELLIGENCE
ORB Fusion represents a complete institutional-grade Opening Range Breakout system combining classic Market Profile concepts (Initial Balance, day type classification) with modern algorithmic breakout detection, failed breakout reversal logic, and comprehensive statistical tracking. Rather than simply drawing lines at opening range extremes, this system implements the full trading methodology used by professional floor traders and market makers—including the critical concept that failed breakouts are often higher-probability setups than successful breakouts .
The Opening Range Hypothesis:
The first 30-60 minutes of trading establishes the day's value area —the price range where the majority of participants agree on fair value. This range is formed during peak information flow (overnight news digestion, gap reactions, early institutional positioning). Breakouts from this range signal directional conviction; failures to hold breakouts signal trapped participants and create exploitable reversals.
Why Opening Range Matters:
1. Information Aggregation : Opening range reflects overnight news, pre-market sentiment, and early institutional orders. It's the market's initial "consensus" on value.
2. Liquidity Concentration : Stop losses cluster just outside opening range. Breakouts trigger these stops, creating momentum. Failed breakouts trap traders, forcing reversals.
3. Statistical Persistence : Markets exhibit range expansion tendency —when price accepts above/below opening range with volume, it often extends 1.0-2.0x the opening range size before mean reversion.
4. Institutional Behavior : Large players (market makers, institutions) use opening range as reference for the day's trading plan. They fade extremes in rotation days and follow breakouts in trend days.
Historical Context:
Opening Range Breakout methodology originated in commodity futures pits (1970s-80s) where floor traders noticed consistent patterns: the first 30-60 minutes established a "fair value zone," and directional moves occurred when this zone was violated with conviction. J. Peter Steidlmayer formalized this observation in Market Profile theory, introducing the "Initial Balance" concept—the first hour (two 30-minute periods) defining market structure.
📊 OPENING RANGE CONSTRUCTION
Four ORB Timeframe Options:
1. 5-Minute ORB (0930-0935 ET):
Captures immediate market direction during "opening drive"—the explosive first few minutes when overnight orders hit the tape.
Use Case:
• Scalping strategies
• High-frequency breakout trading
• Extremely liquid instruments (ES, NQ, SPY)
Characteristics:
• Very tight range (often 0.2-0.5% of price)
• Early breakouts common (7 of 10 days break within first hour)
• Higher false breakout rate (50-60%)
• Requires sub-minute chart monitoring
Psychology: Captures panic buyers/sellers reacting to overnight news. Range is small because sample size is minimal—only 5 minutes of price discovery. Early breakouts often fail because they're driven by retail FOMO rather than institutional conviction.
2. 15-Minute ORB (0930-0945 ET):
Balances responsiveness with statistical validity. Captures opening drive plus initial reaction to that drive.
Use Case:
• Day trading strategies
• Balanced scalping/swing hybrid
• Most liquid instruments
Characteristics:
• Moderate range (0.4-0.8% of price typically)
• Breakout rate ~60% of days
• False breakout rate ~40-45%
• Good balance of opportunity and reliability
Psychology: Includes opening panic AND the first retest/consolidation. Sophisticated traders (institutions, algos) start expressing directional bias. This is the "Goldilocks" timeframe—not too reactive, not too slow.
3. 30-Minute ORB (0930-1000 ET):
Classic ORB timeframe. Default for most professional implementations.
Use Case:
• Standard intraday trading
• Position sizing for full-day trades
• All liquid instruments (equities, indices, futures)
Characteristics:
• Substantial range (0.6-1.2% of price)
• Breakout rate ~55% of days
• False breakout rate ~35-40%
• Statistical sweet spot for extensions
Psychology: Full opening auction + first institutional repositioning complete. By 10:00 AM ET, headlines are digested, early stops are hit, and "real" directional players reveal themselves. This is when institutional programs typically finish their opening positioning.
Statistical Advantage: 30-minute ORB shows highest correlation with daily range. When price breaks and holds outside 30m ORB, probability of reaching 1.0x extension (doubling the opening range) exceeds 60% historically.
4. 60-Minute ORB (0930-1030 ET) - Initial Balance:
Steidlmayer's "Initial Balance"—the foundation of Market Profile theory.
Use Case:
• Swing trading entries
• Day type classification
• Low-frequency institutional setups
Characteristics:
• Wide range (0.8-1.5% of price)
• Breakout rate ~45% of days
• False breakout rate ~25-30% (lowest)
• Best for trend day identification
Psychology: Full first hour captures A-period (0930-1000) and B-period (1000-1030). By 10:30 AM ET, all early positioning is complete. Market has "voted" on value. Subsequent price action confirms (trend day) or rejects (rotation day) this value assessment.
Initial Balance Theory:
IB represents the market's accepted value area . When price extends significantly beyond IB (>1.5x IB range), it signals a Trend Day —strong directional conviction. When price remains within 1.0x IB, it signals a Rotation Day —mean reversion environment. This classification completely changes trading strategy.
🔬 LTF PRECISION TECHNOLOGY
The Chart Timeframe Problem:
Traditional ORB indicators calculate range using the chart's current timeframe. This creates critical inaccuracies:
Example:
• You're on a 5-minute chart
• ORB period is 30 minutes (0930-1000 ET)
• Indicator sees only 6 bars (30min ÷ 5min/bar = 6 bars)
• If any 5-minute bar has extreme wick, entire ORB is distorted
The Problem Amplifies:
• On 15-minute chart with 30-minute ORB: Only 2 bars sampled
• On 30-minute chart with 30-minute ORB: Only 1 bar sampled
• Opening spike or single large wick defines entire range (invalid)
Solution: Lower Timeframe (LTF) Precision:
ORB Fusion uses `request.security_lower_tf()` to sample 1-minute bars regardless of chart timeframe:
```
For 30-minute ORB on 15-minute chart:
- Traditional method: Uses 2 bars (15min × 2 = 30min)
- LTF Precision: Requests thirty 1-minute bars, calculates true high/low
```
Why This Matters:
Scenario: ES futures, 15-minute chart, 30-minute ORB
• Traditional ORB: High = 5850.00, Low = 5842.00 (range = 8 points)
• LTF Precision ORB: High = 5848.50, Low = 5843.25 (range = 5.25 points)
Difference: 2.75 points distortion from single 15-minute wick hitting 5850.00 at 9:31 AM then immediately reversing. LTF precision filters this out by seeing it was a fleeting wick, not a sustained high.
Impact on Extensions:
With inflated range (8 points vs 5.25 points):
• 1.5x extension projects +12 points instead of +7.875 points
• Difference: 4.125 points (nearly $200 per ES contract)
• Breakout signals trigger late; extension targets unreachable
Implementation:
```pinescript
getLtfHighLow() =>
float ha = request.security_lower_tf(syminfo.tickerid, "1", high)
float la = request.security_lower_tf(syminfo.tickerid, "1", low)
```
Function returns arrays of 1-minute high/low values, then finds true maximum and minimum across all samples.
When LTF Precision Activates:
Only when chart timeframe exceeds ORB session window:
• 5-minute chart + 30-minute ORB: LTF used (chart TF > session bars needed)
• 1-minute chart + 30-minute ORB: LTF not needed (direct sampling sufficient)
Recommendation: Always enable LTF Precision unless you're on 1-minute charts. The computational overhead is negligible, and accuracy improvement is substantial.
⚖️ INITIAL BALANCE (IB) FRAMEWORK
Steidlmayer's Market Profile Innovation:
J. Peter Steidlmayer developed Market Profile in the 1980s for the Chicago Board of Trade. His key insight: market structure is best understood through time-at-price (value area) rather than just price-over-time (traditional charts).
Initial Balance Definition:
IB is the price range established during the first hour of trading, subdivided into:
• A-Period : First 30 minutes (0930-1000 ET for US equities)
• B-Period : Second 30 minutes (1000-1030 ET)
A-Period vs B-Period Comparison:
The relationship between A and B periods forecasts the day:
B-Period Expansion (Bullish):
• B-period high > A-period high
• B-period low ≥ A-period low
• Interpretation: Buyers stepping in after opening assessed
• Implication: Bullish continuation likely
• Strategy: Buy pullbacks to A-period high (now support)
B-Period Expansion (Bearish):
• B-period low < A-period low
• B-period high ≤ A-period high
• Interpretation: Sellers stepping in after opening assessed
• Implication: Bearish continuation likely
• Strategy: Sell rallies to A-period low (now resistance)
B-Period Contraction:
• B-period stays within A-period range
• Interpretation: Market indecisive, digesting A-period information
• Implication: Rotation day likely, stay range-bound
• Strategy: Fade extremes, sell high/buy low within IB
IB Extensions:
Professional traders use IB as a ruler to project price targets:
Extension Levels:
• 0.5x IB : Initial probe outside value (minor target)
• 1.0x IB : Full extension (major target for normal days)
• 1.5x IB : Trend day threshold (classifies as trending)
• 2.0x IB : Strong trend day (rare, ~10-15% of days)
Calculation:
```
IB Range = IB High - IB Low
Bull Extension 1.0x = IB High + (IB Range × 1.0)
Bear Extension 1.0x = IB Low - (IB Range × 1.0)
```
Example:
ES futures:
• IB High: 5850.00
• IB Low: 5842.00
• IB Range: 8.00 points
Extensions:
• 1.0x Bull Target: 5850 + 8 = 5858.00
• 1.5x Bull Target: 5850 + 12 = 5862.00
• 2.0x Bull Target: 5850 + 16 = 5866.00
If price reaches 5862.00 (1.5x), day is classified as Trend Day —strategy shifts from mean reversion to trend following.
📈 DAY TYPE CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM
Four Day Types (Market Profile Framework):
1. TREND DAY:
Definition: Price extends ≥1.5x IB range in one direction and stays there.
Characteristics:
• Opens and never returns to IB
• Persistent directional movement
• Volume increases as day progresses (conviction building)
• News-driven or strong institutional flow
Frequency: ~20-25% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Follow the trend, trail stops, let winners run
• DON'T: Fade extremes, take early profits
• Key: Add to position on pullbacks to previous extension level
• Risk: Getting chopped in false trend (see Failed Breakout section)
Example: FOMC decision, payroll report, earnings surprise—anything creating one-sided conviction.
2. NORMAL DAY:
Definition: Price extends 0.5-1.5x IB, tests both sides, returns to IB.
Characteristics:
• Two-sided trading
• Extensions occur but don't persist
• Volume balanced throughout day
• Most common day type
Frequency: ~45-50% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Take profits at extension levels, expect reversals
• DON'T: Hold for massive moves
• Key: Treat each extension as a profit-taking opportunity
• Risk: Holding too long when momentum shifts
Example: Typical day with no major catalysts—market balancing supply and demand.
3. ROTATION DAY:
Definition: Price stays within IB all day, rotating between high and low.
Characteristics:
• Never accepts outside IB
• Multiple tests of IB high/low
• Decreasing volume (no conviction)
• Classic range-bound action
Frequency: ~25-30% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Fade extremes (sell IB high, buy IB low)
• DON'T: Chase breakouts
• Key: Enter at extremes with tight stops just outside IB
• Risk: Breakout finally occurs after multiple failures
Example: [/b> Pre-holiday trading, summer doldrums, consolidation after big move.
4. DEVELOPING:
Definition: Day type not yet determined (early in session).
Usage: Classification before 12:00 PM ET when IB extension pattern unclear.
ORB Fusion's Classification Algorithm:
```pinescript
if close > ibHigh:
ibExtension = (close - ibHigh) / ibRange
direction = "BULLISH"
else if close < ibLow:
ibExtension = (ibLow - close) / ibRange
direction = "BEARISH"
if ibExtension >= 1.5:
dayType = "TREND DAY"
else if ibExtension >= 0.5:
dayType = "NORMAL DAY"
else if close within IB:
dayType = "ROTATION DAY"
```
Why Classification Matters:
Same setup (bullish ORB breakout) has opposite implications:
• Trend Day : Hold for 2.0x extension, trail stops aggressively
• Normal Day : Take profits at 1.0x extension, watch for reversal
• Rotation Day : Fade the breakout immediately (likely false)
Knowing day type prevents catastrophic errors like fading a trend day or holding through rotation.
🚀 BREAKOUT DETECTION & CONFIRMATION
Three Confirmation Methods:
1. Close Beyond Level (Recommended):
Logic: Candle must close above ORB high (bull) or below ORB low (bear).
Why:
• Filters out wicks (temporary liquidity grabs)
• Ensures sustained acceptance above/below range
• Reduces false breakout rate by ~20-30%
Example:
• ORB High: 5850.00
• Bar high touches 5850.50 (wick above)
• Bar closes at 5848.00 (inside range)
• Result: NO breakout signal
vs.
• Bar high touches 5850.50
• Bar closes at 5851.00 (outside range)
• Result: BREAKOUT signal confirmed
Trade-off: Slightly delayed entry (wait for close) but much higher reliability.
2. Wick Beyond Level:
Logic: [/b> Any touch of ORB high/low triggers breakout.
Why:
• Earliest possible entry
• Captures aggressive momentum moves
Risk:
• High false breakout rate (60-70%)
• Stop runs trigger signals
• Requires very tight stops (difficult to manage)
Use Case: Scalping with 1-2 point profit targets where any penetration = trade.
3. Body Beyond Level:
Logic: [/b> Candle body (close vs open) must be entirely outside range.
Why:
• Strictest confirmation
• Ensures directional conviction (not just momentum)
• Lowest false breakout rate
Example: Trade-off: [/b> Very conservative—misses some valid breakouts but rarely triggers on false ones.
Volume Confirmation Layer:
All confirmation methods can require volume validation:
Volume Multiplier Logic: Rationale: [/b> True breakouts are driven by institutional activity (large size). Volume spike confirms real conviction vs. stop-run manipulation.
Statistical Impact: [/b>
• Breakouts with volume confirmation: ~65% success rate
• Breakouts without volume: ~45% success rate
• Difference: 20 percentage points edge
Implementation Note: [/b>
Volume confirmation adds complexity—you'll miss breakouts that work but lack volume. However, when targeting 1.5x+ extensions (ambitious goals), volume confirmation becomes critical because those moves require sustained institutional participation.
Recommended Settings by Strategy: [/b>
Scalping (1-2 point targets): [/b>
• Method: Close
• Volume: OFF
• Rationale: Quick in/out doesn't need perfection
Intraday Swing (5-10 point targets): [/b>
• Method: Close
• Volume: ON (1.5x multiplier)
• Rationale: Balance reliability and opportunity
Position Trading (full-day holds): [/b>
• Method: Body
• Volume: ON (2.0x multiplier)
• Rationale: Must be certain—large stops require high win rate
🔥 FAILED BREAKOUT SYSTEM
The Core Insight: [/b>
Failed breakouts are often more profitable [/b> than successful breakouts because they create trapped traders with predictable behavior.
Failed Breakout Definition: [/b>
A breakout that:
1. Initially penetrates ORB level with confirmation
2. Attracts participants (volume spike, momentum)
3. Fails to extend (stalls or immediately reverses)
4. Returns inside ORB range within N bars
Psychology of Failure: [/b>
When breakout fails:
• Breakout buyers are trapped [/b>: Bought at ORB high, now underwater
• Early longs reduce: Take profit, fearful of reversal
• Shorts smell blood: See failed breakout as reversal signal
• Result: Cascade of selling as trapped bulls exit + new shorts enter
Mirror image for failed bearish breakouts (trapped shorts cover + new longs enter).
Failure Detection Parameters: [/b>
1. Failure Confirmation Bars (default: 3): [/b>
How many bars after breakout to confirm failure?
Logic: Settings: [/b>
• 2 bars: Aggressive failure detection (more signals, more false failures)
• 3 bars Balanced (default)
• 5-10 bars: Conservative (wait for clear reversal)
Why This Matters:
Too few bars: You call "failed breakout" when price is just consolidating before next leg.
Too many bars: You miss the reversal entry (price already back in range).
2. Failure Buffer (default: 0.1 ATR): [/b>
How far inside ORB must price return to confirm failure?
Formula: Why Buffer Matters: clear rejection [/b> (not just hovering at level).
Settings: [/b>
• 0.0 ATR: No buffer, immediate failure signal
• 0.1 ATR: Small buffer (default) - filters noise
• [b>0.2-0.3 ATR: Large buffer - only dramatic failures count
Example: Reversal Entry System: [/b>
When failure confirmed, system generates complete reversal trade:
For Failed Bull Breakout (Short Reversal): [/b>
Entry: [/b> Current close when failure confirmed
Stop Loss: [/b> Extreme high since breakout + 0.10 ATR padding
Target 1: [/b> ORB High - (ORB Range × 0.5)
Target 2: Target 3: [/b> ORB High - (ORB Range × 1.5)
Example:
• ORB High: 5850, ORB Low: 5842, Range: 8 points
• Breakout to 5853, fails, reverses to 5848 (entry)
• Stop: 5853 + 1 = 5854 (6 point risk)
• T1: 5850 - 4 = 5846 (-2 points, 1:3 R:R)
• T2: 5850 - 8 = 5842 (-6 points, 1:1 R:R)
• T3: 5850 - 12 = 5838 (-10 points, 1.67:1 R:R)
[b>Why These Targets? [/b>
• T1 (0.5x ORB below high): Trapped bulls start panic
• T2 (1.0x ORB = ORB Mid): Major retracement, momentum fully reversed
• T3 (1.5x ORB): Reversal extended, now targeting opposite side
Historical Performance: [/b>
Failed breakout reversals in ORB Fusion's tracking system show:
• Win Rate: 65-75% (significantly higher than initial breakouts)
• Average Winner: 1.2x ORB range
• Average Loser: 0.5x ORB range (protected by stop at extreme)
• Expectancy: Strongly positive even with <70% win rate
Why Failed Breakouts Outperform: [/b>
1. Information Advantage: You now know what price did (failed to extend). Initial breakout trades are speculative; reversal trades are reactive to confirmed failure.
2. Trapped Participant Pressure: Every trapped bull becomes a seller. This creates sustained pressure.
3. Stop Loss Clarity: Extreme high is obvious stop (just beyond recent high). Breakout trades have ambiguous stops (ORB mid? Recent low? Too wide or too tight).
4. Mean Reversion Edge: Failed breakouts return to value (ORB mid). Initial breakouts try to escape value (harder to sustain).
Critical Insight: [/b>
"The best trade is often the one that trapped everyone else."
Failed breakouts create asymmetric opportunity because you're trading against [/b> trapped participants rather than with [/b> them. When you see a failed breakout signal, you're seeing real-time evidence that the market rejected directional conviction—that's exploitable.
📐 FIBONACCI EXTENSION SYSTEM
Six Extension Levels: [/b>
Extensions project how far price will travel after ORB breakout. Based on Fibonacci ratios + empirical market behavior.
1. 1.272x (27.2% Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.272)
Psychology: [/b> Initial probe beyond ORB. Early momentum + trapped shorts (on bull side) covering.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~75-80% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• First resistance/support after breakout
• Partial profit target (take 30-50% off)
• Watch for rejection here (could signal failure in progress)
Why 1.272? [/b> Related to harmonic patterns (1.272 is √1.618). Empirically, markets often stall at 25-30% extension before deciding whether to continue or fail.
2. 1.5x (50% Extension):
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.5)
Psychology: [/b> Breakout gaining conviction. Requires sustained buying/selling (not just momentum spike).
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~60-65% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Major partial profit (take 50-70% off)
• Move stops to breakeven
• Trail remaining position
Why 1.5x? [/b> Classic halfway point to 2.0x. Markets often consolidate here before final push. If day type is "Normal," this is likely the high/low for the day.
3. 1.618x (Golden Ratio Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.618)
Psychology: [/b> Strong directional day. Institutional conviction + retail FOMO.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~45-50% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Final partial profit (close 80-90%)
• Trail remainder with wide stop (allow breathing room)
Why 1.618? [/b> Fibonacci golden ratio. Appears consistently in market geometry. When price reaches 1.618x extension, move is "mature" and reversal risk increases.
4. 2.0x (100% Extension): [/b>
Formula: ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 1.0)
Psychology: [/b> Trend day confirmed. Opening range completely duplicated.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~30-35% after confirmed breakout
Trading: Why 2.0x? [/b> Psychological level—range doubled. Also corresponds to typical daily ATR in many instruments (opening range ~ 0.5 ATR, daily range ~ 1.0 ATR).
5. 2.618x (Super Extension):
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 1.618)
Psychology: [/b> Parabolic move. News-driven or squeeze.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~10-15% after confirmed breakout
[b>Trading: Why 2.618? [/b> Fibonacci ratio (1.618²). Rare to reach—when it does, move is extreme. Often precedes multi-day consolidation or reversal.
6. 3.0x (Extreme Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 2.0)
Psychology: [/b> Market melt-up/crash. Only in extreme events.
[b>Probability of Reach: [/b> <5% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Close immediately if reached
• These are outlier events (black swans, flash crashes, squeeze-outs)
• Holding for more is greed—take windfall profit
Why 3.0x? [/b> Triple opening range. So rare it's statistical noise. When it happens, it's headline news.
Visual Example:
ES futures, ORB 5842-5850 (8 point range), Bullish breakout:
• ORB High : 5850.00 (entry zone)
• 1.272x : 5850 + 2.18 = 5852.18 (first resistance)
• 1.5x : 5850 + 4.00 = 5854.00 (major target)
• 1.618x : 5850 + 4.94 = 5854.94 (strong target)
• 2.0x : 5850 + 8.00 = 5858.00 (trend day)
• 2.618x : 5850 + 12.94 = 5862.94 (extreme)
• 3.0x : 5850 + 16.00 = 5866.00 (parabolic)
Profit-Taking Strategy:
Optimal scaling out at extensions:
• Breakout entry at 5850.50
• 30% off at 1.272x (5852.18) → +1.68 points
• 40% off at 1.5x (5854.00) → +3.50 points
• 20% off at 1.618x (5854.94) → +4.44 points
• 10% off at 2.0x (5858.00) → +7.50 points
[b>Average Exit: Conclusion: [/b> Scaling out at extensions produces 40% higher expectancy than holding for home runs.
📊 GAP ANALYSIS & FILL PSYCHOLOGY
[b>Gap Definition: [/b>
Price discontinuity between previous close and current open:
• Gap Up : Open > Previous Close + noise threshold (0.1 ATR)
• Gap Down : Open < Previous Close - noise threshold
Why Gaps Matter: [/b>
Gaps represent unfilled orders [/b>. When market gaps up, all limit buy orders between yesterday's close and today's open are never filled. Those buyers are "left behind." Psychology: they wait for price to return ("fill the gap") so they can enter. This creates magnetic pull [/b> toward gap level.
Gap Fill Statistics (Empirical): [/b>
• Gaps <0.5% [/b>: 85-90% fill within same day
• Gaps 0.5-1.0% [/b>: 70-75% fill within same day, 90%+ within week
• Gaps >1.0% [/b>: 50-60% fill within same day (major news often prevents fill)
Gap Fill Strategy: [/b>
Setup 1: Gap-and-Go
Gap opens, extends away from gap (doesn't fill).
• ORB confirms direction away from gap
• Trade WITH ORB breakout direction
• Expectation: Gap won't fill today (momentum too strong)
Setup 2: Gap-Fill Fade
Gap opens, but fails to extend. Price drifts back toward gap.
• ORB breakout TOWARD gap (not away)
• Trade toward gap fill level
• Target: Previous close (gap fill complete)
Setup 3: Gap-Fill Rejection
Gap fills (touches previous close) then rejects.
• ORB breakout AWAY from gap after fill
• Trade away from gap direction
• Thesis: Gap filled (orders executed), now resume original direction
[b>Example: Scenario A (Gap-and-Go):
• ORB breaks upward to $454 (away from gap)
• Trade: LONG breakout, expect continued rally
• Gap becomes support ($452)
Scenario B (Gap-Fill):
• ORB breaks downward through $452.50 (toward gap)
• Trade: SHORT toward gap fill at $450.00
• Target: $450.00 (gap filled), close position
Scenario C (Gap-Fill Rejection):
• Price drifts to $450.00 (gap filled) early in session
• ORB establishes $450-$451 after gap fill
• ORB breaks upward to $451.50
• Trade: LONG breakout (gap is filled, now resume rally)
ORB Fusion Integration: [/b>
Dashboard shows:
• Gap type (Up/Down/None)
• Gap size (percentage)
• Gap fill status (Filled ✓ / Open)
This informs setup confidence:
• ORB breakout AWAY from unfilled gap: +10% confidence (gap becomes support/resistance)
• ORB breakout TOWARD unfilled gap: -10% confidence (gap fill may override ORB)
[b>📈 VWAP & INSTITUTIONAL BIAS [/b>
[b>Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP): [/b>
Average price weighted by volume at each price level. Represents true "average" cost for the day.
[b>Calculation: Institutional Benchmark [/b>: Institutions (mutual funds, pension funds) use VWAP as performance benchmark. If they buy above VWAP, they underperformed; below VWAP, they outperformed.
2. [b>Algorithmic Target [/b>: Many algos are programmed to buy below VWAP and sell above VWAP to achieve "fair" execution.
3. [b>Support/Resistance [/b>: VWAP acts as dynamic support (price above) or resistance (price below).
[b>VWAP Bands (Standard Deviations): [/b>
• [b>1σ Band [/b>: VWAP ± 1 standard deviation
- Contains ~68% of volume
- Normal trading range
- Bounces common
• [b>2σ Band [/b>: VWAP ± 2 standard deviations
- Contains ~95% of volume
- Extreme extension
- Mean reversion likely
ORB + VWAP Confluence: [/b>
Highest-probability setups occur when ORB and VWAP align:
Bullish Confluence: [/b>
• ORB breakout upward (bullish signal)
• Price above VWAP (institutional buying)
• Confidence boost: +15%
Bearish Confluence: [/b>
• ORB breakout downward (bearish signal)
• Price below VWAP (institutional selling)
• Confidence boost: +15%
[b>Divergence Warning:
• ORB breakout upward BUT price below VWAP
• Conflict: Breakout says "buy," VWAP says "sell"
• Confidence penalty: -10%
• Interpretation: Retail buying but institutions not participating (lower quality breakout)
📊 MOMENTUM CONTEXT SYSTEM
[b>Innovation: Candle Coloring by Position
Rather than fixed support/resistance lines, ORB Fusion colors candles based on their [b>relationship to ORB :
[b>Three Zones: [/b>
1. Inside ORB (Blue Boxes): [/b>
[b>Calculation:
• Darker blue: Near extremes of ORB (potential breakout imminent)
• Lighter blue: Near ORB mid (consolidation)
[b>Trading: [/b> Coiled spring—await breakout.
[b>2. Above ORB (Green Boxes):
[b>Calculation: 3. Below ORB (Red Boxes):
Mirror of above ORB logic.
[b>Special Contexts: [/b>
[b>Breakout Bar (Darkest Green/Red): [/b>
The specific bar where breakout occurs gets maximum color intensity regardless of distance. This highlights the pivotal moment.
[b>Failed Breakout Bar (Orange/Warning): [/b>
When failed breakout is confirmed, that bar gets orange/warning color. Visual alert: "reversal opportunity here."
[b>Near Extension (Cyan/Magenta Tint): [/b>
When price is within 0.5 ATR of an extension level, candle gets tinted cyan (bull) or magenta (bear). Indicates "target approaching—prepare to take profit."
[b>Why Visual Context? [/b>
Traditional indicators show lines. ORB Fusion shows [b>context-aware momentum [/b>. Glance at chart:
• Lots of blue? Consolidation day (fade extremes).
• Progressive green? Trend day (follow).
• Green then orange? Failed breakout (reversal setup).
This visual language communicates market state instantly—no interpretation needed.
🎯 TRADE SETUP GENERATION & GRADING [/b>
[b>Algorithmic Setup Detection: [/b>
ORB Fusion continuously evaluates market state and generates current best trade setup with:
• Action (LONG / SHORT / FADE HIGH / FADE LOW / WAIT)
• Entry price
• Stop loss
• Three targets
• Risk:Reward ratio
• Confidence score (0-100)
• Grade (A+ to D)
[b>Setup Types: [/b>
[b>1. ORB LONG (Bullish Breakout): [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• Bullish ORB breakout confirmed
• Not failed
[b>Parameters:
• Entry: Current close
• Stop: ORB mid (protects against failure)
• T1: ORB High + 0.5x range (1.5x extension)
• T2: ORB High + 1.0x range (2.0x extension)
• T3: ORB High + 1.618x range (2.618x extension)
[b>Confidence Scoring:
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• Bearish breakout occurred
• Failed (returned inside ORB)
[b>Parameters: [/b>
• Entry: Close when failure confirmed
• Stop: Extreme low since breakout + 0.10 ATR
• T1: ORB Low + 0.5x range
• T2: ORB Low + 1.0x range (ORB mid)
• T3: ORB Low + 1.5x range
[b>Confidence Scoring:
[b>Trigger:
• Inside ORB
• Close > ORB mid (near high)
[b>Parameters: [/b>
• Entry: ORB High (limit order)
• Stop: ORB High + 0.2x range
• T1: ORB Mid
• T2: ORB Low
[b>Confidence Scoring: [/b>
Base: 40 points (lower base—range fading is lower probability than breakout/reversal)
[b>Use Case: [/b> Rotation days. Not recommended on normal/trend days.
[b>6. FADE LOW (Range Trade):
Mirror of FADE HIGH.
[b>7. WAIT:
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• ORB not complete yet OR
• No clear setup (price in no-man's-land)
[b>Action: [/b> Observe, don't trade.
[b>Confidence: [/b> 0 points
[b>Grading System:
```
Confidence → Grade
85-100 → A+
75-84 → A
65-74 → B+
55-64 → B
45-54 → C
0-44 → D
```
[b>Grade Interpretation: [/b>
• [b>A+ / A: High probability setup. Take these trades.
• [b>B+ / B [/b>: Decent setup. Trade if fits system rules.
• [b>C [/b>: Marginal setup. Only if very experienced.
• [b>D [/b>: Poor setup or no setup. Don't trade.
[b>Example Scenario: [/b>
ES futures:
• ORB: 5842-5850 (8 point range)
• Bullish breakout to 5851 confirmed
• Volume: 2.0x average (confirmed)
• VWAP: 5845 (price above VWAP ✓)
• Day type: Developing (too early, no bonus)
• Gap: None
[b>Setup: [/b>
• Action: LONG
• Entry: 5851
• Stop: 5846 (ORB mid, -5 point risk)
• T1: 5854 (+3 points, 1:0.6 R:R)
• T2: 5858 (+7 points, 1:1.4 R:R)
• T3: 5862.94 (+11.94 points, 1:2.4 R:R)
[b>Confidence: LONG with 55% confidence.
Interpretation: Solid setup, not perfect. Trade it if your system allows B-grade signals.
[b>📊 STATISTICS TRACKING & PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS [/b>
[b>Real-Time Performance Metrics: [/b>
ORB Fusion tracks comprehensive statistics over user-defined lookback (default 50 days):
[b>Breakout Performance: [/b>
• [b>Bull Breakouts: [/b> Total count, wins, losses, win rate
• [b>Bear Breakouts: [/b> Total count, wins, losses, win rate
[b>Win Definition: [/b> Breakout reaches ≥1.0x extension (doubles the opening range) before end of day.
[b>Example: [/b>
• ORB: 5842-5850 (8 points)
• Bull breakout at 5851
• Reaches 5858 (1.0x extension) by close
• Result: WIN
[b>Failed Breakout Performance: [/b>
• [b>Total Failed Breakouts [/b>: Count of breakouts that failed
• [b>Reversal Wins [/b>: Count where reversal trade reached target
• [b>Failed Reversal Win Rate [/b>: Wins / Total Failed
[b>Win Definition for Reversals: [/b>
• Failed bull → reversal short reaches ORB mid
• Failed bear → reversal long reaches ORB mid
[b>Extension Tracking: [/b>
• [b>Average Extension Reached [/b>: Mean of maximum extension achieved across all breakout days
• [b>Max Extension Overall [/b>: Largest extension ever achieved in lookback period
[b>Example: 🎨 THREE DISPLAY MODES
[b>Design Philosophy: [/b>
Not all traders need all features. Beginners want simplicity. Professionals want everything. ORB Fusion adapts.
[b>SIMPLE MODE: [/b>
[b>Shows: [/b>
• Primary ORB levels (High, Mid, Low)
• ORB box
• Breakout signals (triangles)
• Failed breakout signals (crosses)
• Basic dashboard (ORB status, breakout status, setup)
• VWAP
[b>Hides: [/b>
• Session ORBs (Asian, London, NY)
• IB levels and extensions
• ORB extensions beyond basic levels
• Gap analysis visuals
• Statistics dashboard
• Momentum candle coloring
• Narrative dashboard
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Traders who want clean chart
• Focus on core ORB concept only
• Mobile trading (less screen space)
[b>STANDARD MODE:
[b>Shows Everything in Simple Plus: [/b>
• Session ORBs (Asian, London, NY)
• IB levels (high, low, mid)
• IB extensions
• ORB extensions (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x)
• Gap analysis and fill targets
• VWAP bands (1σ and 2σ)
• Momentum candle coloring
• Context section in dashboard
• Narrative dashboard
[b>Hides: [/b>
• Advanced extensions (2.618x, 3.0x)
• Detailed statistics dashboard
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Most traders
• Balance between information and clarity
• Covers 90% of use cases
[b>ADVANCED MODE:
[b>Shows Everything:
• All session ORBs
• All IB levels and extensions
• All ORB extensions (including 2.618x and 3.0x)
• Full gap analysis
• VWAP with both 1σ and 2σ bands
• Momentum candle coloring
• Complete statistics dashboard
• Narrative dashboard
• All context metrics
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Professional traders
• System developers
• Those who want maximum information density
[b>Switching Modes: [/b>
Single dropdown input: "Display Mode" → Simple / Standard / Advanced
Entire indicator adapts instantly. No need to toggle 20 individual settings.
📖 NARRATIVE DASHBOARD
[b>Innovation: Plain-English Market State [/b>
Most indicators show data. ORB Fusion explains what the data [b>means [/b>.
[b>Narrative Components: [/b>
[b>1. Phase: [/b>
• "📍 Building ORB..." (during ORB session)
• "📊 Trading Phase" (after ORB complete)
• "⏳ Pre-Market" (before ORB session)
[b>2. Status (Current Observation): [/b>
• "⚠️ Failed breakout - reversal likely"
• "🚀 Bullish momentum in play"
• "📉 Bearish momentum in play"
• "⚖️ Consolidating in range"
• "👀 Monitoring for setup"
[b>3. Next Level:
Tells you what to watch for:
• "🎯 1.5x @ 5854.00" (next extension target)
• "Watch ORB levels" (inside range, await breakout)
[b>4. Setup: [/b>
Current trade setup + grade:
• "LONG " (bullish breakout, A-grade)
• "🔥 SHORT REVERSAL " (failed bull breakout, A+-grade)
• "WAIT " (no setup)
[b>5. Reason: [/b>
Why this setup exists:
• "ORB Bullish Breakout"
• "Failed Bear Breakout - High Probability Reversal"
• "Range Fade - Near High"
[b>6. Tip (Market Insight):
Contextual advice:
• "🔥 TREND DAY - Trail stops" (day type is trending)
• "🔄 ROTATION - Fade extremes" (day type is rotating)
• "📊 Gap unfilled - magnet level" (gap creates target)
• "📈 Normal conditions" (no special context)
[b>Example Narrative:
```
📖 ORB Narrative
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Phase | 📊 Trading Phase
Status | 🚀 Bullish momentum in play
Next | 🎯 1.5x @ 5854.00
📈 Setup | LONG
Reason | ORB Bullish Breakout
💡 Tip | 🔥 TREND DAY - Trail stops
```
[b>Glance Interpretation: [/b>
"We're in trading phase. Bullish breakout happened (momentum in play). Next target is 1.5x extension at 5854. Current setup is LONG with A-grade. It's a trend day, so trail stops (don't take early profits)."
Complete market state communicated in 6 lines. No interpretation needed.
[b>Why This Matters:
Beginner traders struggle with "So what?" question. Indicators show lines and signals, but what does it mean [/b>? Narrative dashboard bridges this gap.
Professional traders benefit too—rapid context assessment during fast-moving markets. No time to analyze; glance at narrative, get action plan.
🔔 INTELLIGENT ALERT SYSTEM
[b>Four Alert Types: [/b>
[b>1. Breakout Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> ORB breakout confirmed (bull or bear)
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🚀 ORB BULLISH BREAKOUT
Price: 5851.00
Volume Confirmed
Grade: A
```
[b>Frequency: [/b> Once per bar (prevents spam)
[b>2. Failed Breakout Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> Breakout fails, reversal setup generated
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🔥 FAILED BULLISH BREAKOUT!
HIGH PROBABILITY SHORT REVERSAL
Entry: 5848.00
Stop: 5854.00
T1: 5846.00
T2: 5842.00
Historical Win Rate: 73%
```
[b>Why Comprehensive? [/b> Failed breakout alerts include complete trade plan. You can execute immediately from alert—no need to check chart.
[b>3. Extension Alert:
[b>Trigger: [/b> Price reaches extension level for first time
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🎯 Bull Extension 1.5x reached @ 5854.00
```
[b>Use: [/b> Profit-taking reminder. When extension hit, consider scaling out.
[b>4. IB Break Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> Price breaks above IB high or below IB low
[b>Message: [/b>
```
📊 IB HIGH BROKEN - Potential Trend Day
```
[b>Use: [/b> Day type classification. IB break suggests trend day developing—adjust strategy to trend-following mode.
[b>Alert Management: [/b>
Each alert type can be enabled/disabled independently. Prevents notification overload.
[b>Cooldown Logic: [/b>
Alerts won't fire if same alert type triggered within last bar. Prevents:
• "Breakout" alert every tick during choppy breakout
• Multiple "extension" alerts if price oscillates at level
Ensures: One clean alert per event.
⚙️ KEY PARAMETERS EXPLAINED
[b>Opening Range Settings: [/b>
• [b>ORB Timeframe [/b> (5/15/30/60 min): Duration of opening range window
- 30 min recommended for most traders
• [b>Use RTH Only [/b> (ON/OFF): Only trade during regular trading hours
- ON recommended (avoids thin overnight markets)
• [b>Use LTF Precision [/b> (ON/OFF): Sample 1-minute bars for accuracy
- ON recommended (critical for charts >1 minute)
• [b>Precision TF [/b> (1/5 min): Timeframe for LTF sampling
- 1 min recommended (most accurate)
[b>Session ORBs: [/b>
• [b>Show Asian/London/NY ORB [/b> (ON/OFF): Display multi-session ranges
- OFF in Simple mode
- ON in Standard/Advanced if trading 24hr markets
• [b>Session Windows [/b>: Time ranges for each session ORB
- Defaults align with major session opens
[b>Initial Balance: [/b>
• [b>Show IB [/b> (ON/OFF): Display Initial Balance levels
- ON recommended for day type classification
• [b>IB Session Window [/b> (0930-1030): First hour of trading
- Default is standard for US equities
• [b>Show IB Extensions [/b> (ON/OFF): Project IB extension targets
- ON recommended (identifies trend days)
• [b>IB Extensions 1-4 [/b> (0.5x, 1.0x, 1.5x, 2.0x): Extension multipliers
- Defaults are Market Profile standard
[b>ORB Extensions: [/b>
• [b>Show Extensions [/b> (ON/OFF): Project ORB extension targets
- ON recommended (defines profit targets)
• [b>Enable Individual Extensions [/b> (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x, 2.618x, 3.0x)
- Enable 1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x minimum
- Disable 2.618x and 3.0x unless trading very volatile instruments
[b>Breakout Detection:
• [b>Confirmation Method [/b> (Close/Wick/Body):
- Close recommended (best balance)
- Wick for scalping
- Body for conservative
• [b>Require Volume Confirmation [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (increases reliability)
• [b>Volume Multiplier [/b> (1.0-3.0):
- 1.5x recommended
- Lower for thin instruments
- Higher for heavy volume instruments
[b>Failed Breakout System: [/b>
• [b>Enable Failed Breakouts [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON strongly recommended (highest edge)
• [b>Bars to Confirm Failure [/b> (2-10):
- 3 bars recommended
- 2 for aggressive (more signals, more false failures)
- 5+ for conservative (fewer signals, higher quality)
• [b>Failure Buffer [/b> (0.0-0.5 ATR):
- 0.1 ATR recommended
- Filters noise during consolidation near ORB level
• [b>Show Reversal Targets [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (visualizes trade plan)
• [b>Reversal Target Mults [/b> (0.5x, 1.0x, 1.5x):
- Defaults are tested values
- Adjust based on average daily range
[b>Gap Analysis:
• [b>Show Gap Analysis [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON if trading instruments that gap frequently
- OFF for 24hr markets (forex, crypto—no gaps)
• [b>Gap Fill Target [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON to visualize previous close (gap fill level)
[b>VWAP:
• [b>Show VWAP [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (key institutional level)
• [b>Show VWAP Bands [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON in Standard/Advanced
- OFF in Simple
• [b>Band Multipliers (1.0σ, 2.0σ):
- Defaults are standard
- 1σ = normal range, 2σ = extreme
[b>Day Type: [/b>
• [b>Show Day Type Analysis [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (critical for strategy adaptation)
• [b>Trend Day Threshold [/b> (1.0-2.5 IB mult):
- 1.5x recommended
- When price extends >1.5x IB, classifies as Trend Day
[b>Enhanced Visuals:
• [b>Show Momentum Candles [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON for visual context
- OFF if chart gets too colorful
• [b>Show Gradient Zone Fills [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON for professional look
- OFF for minimalist chart
• [b>Label Display Mode [/b> (All/Adaptive/Minimal):
- Adaptive recommended (shows nearby labels only)
- All for information density
- Minimal for clean chart
• [b>Label Proximity [/b> (1.0-5.0 ATR):
- 3.0 ATR recommended
- Labels beyond this distance are hidden (Adaptive mode)
[b>🎓 PROFESSIONAL USAGE PROTOCOL [/b>
[b>Phase 1: Learning the System (Week 1) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Understand ORB concepts and dashboard interpretation
[b>Setup: [/b>
• Display Mode: STANDARD
• ORB Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Enable ALL features (IB, extensions, failed breakouts, VWAP, gap analysis)
• Enable statistics tracking
[b>Actions: [/b>
• Paper trade ONLY—no real money
• Observe ORB formation every day (9:30-10:00 AM ET for US markets)
• Note when ORB breakouts occur and if they extend
• Note when breakouts fail and reversals happen
• Watch day type classification evolve during session
• Track statistics—which setups are working?
[b>Key Learning: [/b>
• How often do breakouts reach 1.5x extension? (typically 50-60% of confirmed breakouts)
• How often do breakouts fail? (typically 30-40%)
• Which setup grade (A/B/C) actually performs best? (should see A-grade outperforming)
• What day type produces best results? (trend days favor breakouts, rotation days favor fades)
[b>Phase 2: Parameter Optimization (Week 2) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Tune system to your instrument and timeframe
[b>ORB Timeframe Selection:
• Run 5 days with 15-minute ORB
• Run 5 days with 30-minute ORB
• Compare: Which captures better breakouts on your instrument?
• Typically: 30-minute optimal for most, 15-minute for very liquid (ES, SPY)
[b>Volume Confirmation Testing:
• Run 5 days WITH volume confirmation
• Run 5 days WITHOUT volume confirmation
• Compare: Does volume confirmation increase win rate?
• If win rate improves by >5%: Keep volume confirmation ON
• If no improvement: Turn OFF (avoid missing valid breakouts)
[b>Failed Breakout Bars:
[b>Goal: [/b> Develop personal trading rules based on system signals
[b>Setup Selection Rules: [/b>
Define which setups you'll trade:
• [b>Conservative: [/b> Only A+ and A grades
• [b>Balanced: [/b> A+, A, B+ grades
• [b>Aggressive: [/b> All grades B and above
Test each approach for 5-10 trades, compare results.
[b>Position Sizing by Grade: [/b>
Consider risk-weighting by setup quality:
• A+ grade: 100% position size
• A grade: 75% position size
• B+ grade: 50% position size
• B grade: 25% position size
Example: If max risk is $1000/trade:
• A+ setup: Risk $1000
• A setup: Risk $750
• B+ setup: Risk $500
This matches bet sizing to edge.
[b>Day Type Adaptation: [/b>
Create rules for different day types:
Trend Days:
• Take ALL breakout signals (A/B/C grades)
• Hold for 2.0x extension minimum
• Trail stops aggressively (1.0 ATR trail)
• DON'T fade—reversals unlikely
Rotation Days:
• ONLY take failed breakout reversals
• Ignore initial breakout signals (likely to fail)
• Take profits quickly (0.5x extension)
• Focus on fade setups (Fade High/Fade Low)
Normal Days:
• Take A/A+ breakout signals only
• Take ALL failed breakout reversals (high probability)
• Target 1.0-1.5x extensions
• Partial profit-taking at extensions
Time-of-Day Rules: [/b>
Breakouts at different times have different probabilities:
10:00-10:30 AM (Early Breakout):
• ORB just completed
• Fresh breakout
• Probability: Moderate (50-55% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Conservative position sizing
10:30-12:00 PM (Mid-Morning):
• Momentum established
• Volume still healthy
• Probability: High (60-65% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Standard position sizing
12:00-2:00 PM (Lunch Doldrums):
• Volume dries up
• Whipsaw risk increases
• Probability: Low (40-45% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Avoid new entries OR reduce size 50%
2:00-4:00 PM (Afternoon Session):
• Late-day positioning
• EOD squeezes possible
• Probability: Moderate-High (55-60%)
• Strategy: Watch for IB break—if trending all day, follow
[b>Phase 4: Live Micro-Sizing (Month 2) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Validate paper trading results with minimal risk
[b>Setup: [/b>
• 10-20% of intended full position size
• Take ONLY A+ and A grade setups
• Follow stop loss and targets religiously
[b>Execution: [/b>
• Execute from alerts OR from dashboard setup box
• Entry: Close of signal bar OR next bar market order
• Stop: Use exact stop from setup (don't widen)
• Targets: Scale out at T1/T2/T3 as indicated
[b>Tracking: [/b>
• Log every trade: Entry, Exit, Grade, Outcome, Day Type
• Calculate: Win rate, Average R-multiple, Max consecutive losses
• Compare to paper trading results (should be within 15%)
[b>Red Flags: [/b>
• Win rate <45%: System not suitable for this instrument/timeframe
• Major divergence from paper trading: Execution issues (slippage, late entries, emotional exits)
• Max consecutive losses >8: Hitting rough patch OR market regime changed
[b>Phase 5: Scaling Up (Months 3-6)
[b>Goal: [/b> Gradually increase to full position size
[b>Progression: [/b>
• Month 3: 25-40% size (if micro-sizing profitable)
• Month 4: 40-60% size
• Month 5: 60-80% size
• Month 6: 80-100% size
[b>Milestones Required to Scale Up: [/b>
• Minimum 30 trades at current size
• Win rate ≥48%
• Profit factor ≥1.2
• Max drawdown <20%
• Emotional control (no revenge trading, no FOMO)
[b>Advanced Techniques:
[b>Multi-Timeframe ORB: Assumes first 30-60 minutes establish value. Violation: Market opens after major news, price discovery continues for hours (opening range meaningless).
2. [b>Volume Indicates Conviction: ES, NQ, RTY, SPY, QQQ—high liquidity, clean ORB formation, reliable extensions
• [b>Large-Cap Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, NVDA (>$5B market cap, >5M daily volume)
• [b>Liquid Futures: CL (crude oil), GC (gold), 6E (EUR/USD), ZB (bonds)—24hr markets benefit from session ORBs
• [b>Major Forex Pairs: [/b> EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY—London/NY session ORBs work well
[b>Performs Poorly On: [/b>
• [b>Illiquid Stocks: <$1M daily volume, wide spreads, gappy price action
• [b>Penny Stocks: [/b> Manipulated, pump-and-dump, no real price discovery
• [b>Low-Volume ETFs: Exotic sector ETFs, leveraged products with thin volume
• [b>Crypto on Sketchy Exchanges: Wash trading, spoofing invalidates volume analysis
• [b>Earnings Days: [/b> ORB completes before earnings release, then completely resets (useless)
• Binary Event Days: FDA approvals, court rulings—discontinuous price action
[b>Known Weaknesses: [/b>
• [b>Slow Starts: ORB doesn't complete until 10:00 AM (30-min ORB). Early morning traders have no signals for 30 minutes. Consider using 15-minute ORB if this is problematic.
• [b>Failure Detection Lag: [/b> Failed breakout requires 3+ bars to confirm. By the time system signals reversal, price may have already moved significantly back inside range. Manual traders watching in real-time can enter earlier.
• [b>Extension Overshoot: [/b> System projects extensions mathematically (1.5x, 2.0x, etc.). Actual moves may stop short (1.3x) or overshoot (2.2x). Extensions are targets, not magnets.
• [b>Day Type Misclassification: [/b> Early in session, day type is "Developing." By the time it's classified definitively (often 11:00 AM+), half the day is over. Strategy adjustments happen late.
• [b>Gap Assumptions: [/b> System assumes gaps want to fill. Strong trend days never fill gaps (gap becomes support/resistance forever). Blindly trading toward gaps can backfire on trend days.
• [b>Volume Data Quality: Forex doesn't have centralized volume (uses tick volume as proxy—less reliable). Crypto volume is often fake (wash trading). Volume confirmation less effective on these instruments.
• [b>Multi-Session Complexity: [/b> When using Asian/London/NY ORBs simultaneously, chart becomes cluttered. Requires discipline to focus on relevant session for current time.
[b>Risk Factors: [/b>
• [b>Opening Gaps: Large gaps (>2%) can create distorted ORBs. Opening range might be unusually wide or narrow, making extensions unreliable.
• [b>Low Volatility Environments:[/b> When VIX <12, opening ranges can be tiny (0.2-0.3%). Extensions are equally tiny. Profit targets don't justify commission/slippage.
• [b>High Volatility Environments:[/b> When VIX >30, opening ranges are huge (2-3%+). Extensions project unrealistic targets. Failed breakouts happen faster (volatility whipsaw).
• [b>Algorithm Dominance:[/b> In heavily algorithmic markets (ES during overnight session), ORB levels can be manipulated—algos pin price to ORB high/low intentionally. Breakouts become stop-runs rather than genuine directional moves.
[b>⚠️ RISK DISCLOSURE[/b>
Trading futures, stocks, options, forex, and cryptocurrencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Opening Range Breakout strategies, while based on sound market structure principles, do not guarantee profits and can result in significant losses.
The ORB Fusion indicator implements professional trading concepts including Opening Range theory, Market Profile Initial Balance analysis, Fibonacci extensions, and failed breakout reversal logic. These methodologies have theoretical foundations but past performance—whether backtested or live—is not indicative of future results.
Opening Range theory assumes the first 30-60 minutes of trading establish a meaningful value area and that breakouts from this range signal directional conviction. This assumption may not hold during:
• Major news events (FOMC, NFP, earnings surprises)
• Market structure changes (circuit breakers, trading halts)
• Low liquidity periods (holidays, early closures)
• Algorithmic manipulation or spoofing
Failed breakout detection relies on patterns of trapped participant behavior. While historically these patterns have shown statistical edges, market conditions change. Institutional algorithms, changing market structure, or regime shifts can reduce or eliminate edges that existed historically.
Initial Balance classification (trend day vs rotation day vs normal day) is a heuristic framework, not a deterministic prediction. Day type can change mid-session. Early classification may prove incorrect as the day develops.
Extension projections (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x, etc.) are probabilistic targets derived from Fibonacci ratios and empirical market behavior. They are not "support and resistance levels" that price must reach or respect. Markets can stop short of extensions, overshoot them, or ignore them entirely.
Volume confirmation assumes high volume indicates institutional participation and conviction. In algorithmic markets, volume can be artificially high (HFT activity) or artificially low (dark pools, internalization). Volume is a proxy, not a guarantee of conviction.
LTF precision sampling improves ORB accuracy by using 1-minute bars but introduces additional data dependencies. If 1-minute data is unavailable, inaccurate, or delayed, ORB calculations will be incorrect.
The grading system (A+/A/B+/B/C/D) and confidence scores aggregate multiple factors (volume, VWAP, day type, IB expansion, gap context) into a single assessment. This is a mechanical calculation, not artificial intelligence. The system cannot adapt to unprecedented market conditions or events outside its programmed logic.
Real trading involves slippage, commissions, latency, partial fills, and rejected orders not present in indicator calculations. ORB Fusion generates signals at bar close; actual fills occur with delay. Opening range forms during highest volatility (first 30 minutes)—spreads widen, slippage increases. Execution quality significantly impacts realized results.
Statistics tracking (win rates, extension levels reached, day type distribution) is based on historical bars in your lookback window. If lookback is small (<50 bars) or market regime changed, statistics may not represent future probabilities.
Users must independently validate system performance on their specific instruments, timeframes, and broker execution environment. Paper trade extensively (100+ trades minimum) before risking capital. Start with micro position sizing (5-10% of intended size) for 50+ trades to validate execution quality matches expectations.
Never risk more than you can afford to lose completely. Use proper position sizing (0.5-2% risk per trade maximum). Implement stop losses on every single trade without exception. Understand that most retail traders lose money—sophisticated indicators do not change this fundamental reality. They systematize analysis but cannot eliminate risk.
The developer makes no warranties regarding profitability, suitability, accuracy, reliability, or fitness for any purpose. Users assume full responsibility for all trading decisions, parameter selections, risk management, and outcomes.
By using this indicator, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and accepted these risk disclosures and limitations, and you accept full responsibility for all trading activity and potential losses.
[b>═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════[/b>
[b>CLOSING STATEMENT[/b>
[b>═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════[/b>
Opening Range Breakout is not a trick. It's a framework. The first 30-60 minutes reveal where participants believe value lies. Breakouts signal directional conviction. Failures signal trapped participants. Extensions define profit targets. Day types dictate strategy. Failed breakouts create the highest-probability reversals.
ORB Fusion doesn't predict the future—it identifies [b>structure[/b>, detects [b>breakouts[/b>, recognizes [b>failures[/b>, and generates [b>probabilistic trade plans[/b> with defined risk and reward.
The edge is not in the opening range itself. The edge is in recognizing when the market respects structure (follow breakouts) versus when it violates structure (fade breakouts). The edge is in detecting failures faster than discretionary traders. The edge is in systematic classification that prevents catastrophic errors—like fading a trend day or holding through rotation.
Most indicators draw lines. ORB Fusion implements a complete institutional trading methodology: Opening Range theory, Market Profile classification, failed breakout intelligence, Fibonacci projections, volume confirmation, gap psychology, and real-time performance tracking.
Whether you're a beginner learning market structure or a professional seeking systematic ORB implementation, this system provides the framework.
"The market's first word is its opening range. Everything after is commentary." — ORB Fusion
AI-based Price action confluence dashboard# **AI-Based Price Action Confluence Dashboard - Publication Guide**
Here's a comprehensive introduction guide for your TradingView indicator publication:
***
## **📊 TITLE**
**AI-Based Price Action Confluence Dashboard**
***
## **🎯 SHORT DESCRIPTION** (For the summary field)
A sophisticated real-time confluence scoring system that analyzes multiple price action signals across 15-minute timeframes, providing traders with an AI-weighted scoring mechanism (0-6 scale) to identify high-probability trade setups through visual signal panels and intelligent path detection.
***
## **📝 FULL DESCRIPTION**
### **Overview**
The AI-Based Price Action Confluence Dashboard is an advanced technical indicator designed to eliminate guesswork in intraday trading by systematically scoring and displaying multiple price action signals in real-time. Unlike traditional single-indicator approaches, this dashboard employs a confluence methodology that combines multiple independent signals to provide stronger trade confirmations and reduce false signals.
This indicator is specifically optimized for **1-minute chart analysis** while monitoring **15-minute price structure**, making it ideal for day traders and scalpers who need precise entry timing with larger timeframe context.
***
### **🔑 Key Features**
**✅ Real-Time AI Confluence Scoring**
- Dynamic scoring system (0-6 points) for both bullish and bearish setups
- Visual meter display shows signal strength at a glance
- Color-coded backgrounds indicate confluence levels (strong, moderate, mixed)
**✅ Multi-Signal Analysis**
The dashboard tracks 6 distinct signal types:
1. **FTFC (First to Finish Close)** - Base & Bonus signals
2. **Long/Short Grab** - Liquidity sweep patterns (Path A)
3. **High/Low Hold** - Extended momentum confirmation (+2 bonus)
4. **2-Up/2-Down** - Clean breakout patterns (Path B)
5. **Breakaway** - First candle gap strategies
**✅ Intelligent Path Detection**
- Mutually exclusive path logic prevents signal conflicts
- Automatically identifies whether price is following a "sweep path" or "clean path"
- Unavailable paths are clearly marked with gray indicators
**✅ Visual Signal Panels**
- 🟢 Green Light = Bullish signal ACTIVE
- 🔴 Red Light = Bearish signal ACTIVE
- 🟡 Yellow Light = Signal BUILDING (conditions partially met)
- ⚪ White Light = Signal OFF
- ▪️ Gray Square = Path UNAVAILABLE (mutually exclusive)
**✅ Comprehensive Alert System**
- 10 different alert conditions covering all major signals
- Strong confluence alerts (5+ points)
- Individual signal completion alerts
- Customizable alert messages
***
### **📐 How It Works**
#### **The Confluence Methodology**
This indicator implements a sophisticated confluence trading approach where multiple independent price action signals are combined to identify high-probability setups. Each signal type contributes points to either the bullish or bearish score, with a maximum of 6 points per direction.
**Scoring Breakdown:**
**BULLISH SIGNALS:**
- FTFC Base (15m close > previous 15m close) = +1
- FTFC Bonus (price clears 15th candle high) = +1
- **PATH A (Sweep):** Long Grab = +1, High Hold Bonus = +2
- **PATH B (Clean):** 2-Up = +1, 2-Up Bonus = +1
- Breakaway (gap above first candle) = +1
**BEARISH SIGNALS:**
- FTFC Base (15m close < previous 15m close) = +1
- FTFC Bonus (price clears 15th candle low) = +1
- **PATH A (Sweep):** Short Grab = +1, Low Hold Bonus = +2
- **PATH B (Clean):** 2-Down = +1, 2-Down Bonus = +1
- Breakaway (gap below first candle) = +1
#### **Path Detection Logic**
The indicator automatically determines which path the market is following:
**PATH A: SWEEP PATH**
- Activated when previous 15m low (bull) or high (bear) is breached
- Indicates liquidity grab before reversal
- Includes powerful +2 bonus for "Hold" confirmations
- Mutually exclusive with Path B
**PATH B: CLEAN PATH**
- Activated when previous 15m low (bull) or high (bear) holds
- Indicates strong directional momentum without sweep
- Cleaner price action but smaller point potential
- Mutually exclusive with Path A
This mutual exclusivity prevents double-counting and ensures signal accuracy.
***
### **🎨 How to Use**
#### **Installation**
1. Add indicator to your 1-minute chart
2. The dashboard appears as a table overlay (default: top right)
3. No additional indicators required - this is a complete system
#### **Reading the Dashboard**
**Top Section - Confluence Meter:**
- Shows current bull/bear scores with visual dot meters
- Background color changes based on confluence strength:
- **Bright Green/Red** = 5+ points (strong directional bias)
- **Medium Green/Red** = 3+ points (moderate bias)
- **Orange** = 3+ points both sides (conflicting signals)
- **Gray** = Low confluence (choppy conditions)
**Signal Panels Section:**
- Each row shows a signal type with bull/bear lights side-by-side
- Active signals (🟢🔴) contribute to the total score
- Building signals (🟡) indicate potential setups forming
- Unavailable paths (▪️) show which exclusive path is blocked
#### **Trading Strategy**
**High-Probability Long Entries:**
- Bull score ≥ 5 AND bear score ≤ 1
- Multiple green lights active in signal panels
- PATH A or PATH B showing full completion
- Consider entry on pullback to key 15m level
**High-Probability Short Entries:**
- Bear score ≥ 5 AND bull score ≤ 1
- Multiple red lights active in signal panels
- PATH A or PATH B showing full completion
- Consider entry on rally to key 15m level
**Avoid Trading When:**
- Both scores are 3+ (conflicting signals)
- No path is showing active/building status
- Score is below 3 on both sides (low confluence)
#### **Risk Management**
- Use 15m swing high/low for stop placement
- Target opposing 15m level or previous session extremes
- Scale out at partial targets when confluence decreases
- Best results when combined with proper position sizing
***
### **⚙️ Customization**
**Dashboard Settings:**
- **Table Location:** Top Left, Top Right, Bottom Left, Bottom Right
- **Text Size:** Tiny, Small, Normal, Large
**Color Scheme:**
- **Bullish Color:** Customize green for bull signals (default: #00cc66)
- **Bearish Color:** Customize red for bear signals (default: #ff4444)
- **Building Color:** Customize yellow for forming signals (default: #ffaa00)
- **Inactive Color:** Customize gray for off signals (default: #555555)
- **Unavailable Color:** Customize dark gray for blocked paths (default: #333333)
All colors can be adjusted to match your chart theme or visual preferences.
***
### **🎯 Best Practices**
1. **Use on 1-minute charts only** - The indicator is calibrated for this timeframe
2. **Trade during liquid sessions** - Best results during NY/London overlap
3. **Wait for 3+ confluence** - Minimum threshold for trade consideration
4. **Watch path transitions** - Signal strength changes when paths flip
5. **Use alerts strategically** - Set alerts for 5+ confluence to catch strong setups
6. **Combine with volume** - High volume confirms signal validity
7. **Respect 15m structure** - Don't fight the larger timeframe bias
***
### **⚠️ Important Notes**
- This indicator is designed for **intraday trading only**
- Requires active monitoring during trading sessions
- Works best on liquid instruments (major forex pairs, indices, large-cap stocks)
- Not suitable for swing trading or position trading
- Past performance does not guarantee future results
- Always use proper risk management and position sizing
***
### **🏷️ Category**
**Oscillators** or **Volatility** (choose based on TradingView categories)
***
### **🏷️ Suggested Tags**
- confluence
- price action
- day trading
- scalping
- intraday
- signals
- dashboard
- multi-timeframe
- 1-minute
- 15-minute
***
### **📜 Disclaimer**
This indicator is a tool for technical analysis and should not be used as the sole basis for trading decisions. All trading involves risk, and you should never risk more than you can afford to lose. The developer assumes no responsibility for trading losses incurred through the use of this indicator. Always practice proper risk management and consider your own risk tolerance before trading.
All-in-One Momentum Composite The Four Components (and Why They're Chosen)
RSI (Relative Strength Index) – Classic overbought/oversold oscillator (14-period default). Measures speed and change of price movements.
Stochastic (%D line) – Smoothened momentum indicator that compares closing price to the price range over a period. Excellent at spotting reversals in ranging markets.
WaveTrend – Very popular in crypto and forex communities (originally by LazyBear). It’s essentially a momentum oscillator based on overbought/oversold channels, similar to a faster, smoother RSI/Stochastic hybrid. Known for early divergence signals and clean crossovers.
MACD Histogram – Captures momentum changes and trend strength via the difference between fast and slow EMAs. The histogram shows acceleration/deceleration.
Opposite Candle Zone Identifier (v6) - Extended🔍 Opposite Candle Zone Identifier (Extended)
Opposite Candle Zone Identifier is a price-action based indicator designed to identify potential reversal or absorption zones by detecting candles that move against the surrounding trend.
The indicator highlights a central opposite candle (or group of candles) that is surrounded by candles moving in the opposite direction, both before and after the central candle.
This structure often represents areas where institutional activity, absorption, or supply/demand imbalance may occur.
📌 How the Indicator Works
The indicator analyzes price action using three configurable blocks:
1️⃣ Candles Before (Backward)
A user-defined number of candles before the central candle(s) must follow a consistent trend:
Bullish candles for a bearish zone
Bearish candles for a bullish zone
2️⃣ Central Candle(s)
The core of the pattern:
Default: 1 opposite candle
Can be increased (up to 5) to adapt the indicator to lower timeframes or noisier markets
This central block must move against the previous trend, signaling a potential shift or absorption area.
3️⃣ Candles After (Forward)
A user-defined number of candles after the central candle(s) must resume the original trend, confirming the pattern.
⚠️ The signal is confirmed only after the “after” candles are completed.
This avoids repainting and ensures structural confirmation.
📐 Zone Concept
The highlighted central candle (or candles) can be used to define a price zone:
The high and low of the central candle(s) represent a potential supply or demand zone
These zones can be used for:
Reversal areas
Reaction zones
Entry refinement
Stop placement
⚙️ Inputs & Customization
Number of candles before
Controls how many candles must follow the initial trend.
Number of candles after
Defines how many candles are required for confirmation.
Central candles count
Default is 1, but can be increased (e.g. 2) for:
Lower timeframes
More reliable structure
Reduced noise
ATR-based offset
Labels are positioned using a dynamic ATR offset to improve chart readability across different markets and timeframes.
📈 Bullish & Bearish Zones
🟢 Bullish Zone
Bearish candles before
Bullish central candle(s)
Bearish candles after
Indicates potential demand or accumulation zone
🔴 Bearish Zone
Bullish candles before
Bearish central candle(s)
Bullish candles after
Indicates potential supply or distribution zone
🧠 Best Use Cases
Works best on 15m and higher timeframes
Effective on:
Indices
Forex majors
Liquid cryptocurrencies
Can be combined with:
Trend filters (EMA, VWAP)
Support & resistance
Market structure analysis
⚠️ Notes
This indicator is confirmation-based, not predictive
Signals appear only after pattern completion
It does not repaint
Best used as a confluence tool, not as a standalone trading system
🎯 Summary
Opposite Candle Zone Identifier helps traders:
Detect opposite-direction candles within strong trends
Identify potential supply and demand zones
Adapt the pattern to different timeframes
Improve price-action based decision making
FX Session High/Low Bands - Last 5 EST Days
FX Session High/Low Bands - Last 5 Days
Description:
This indicator plots horizontal bands representing the high and low price levels from the major forex trading sessions over the last 5 days. It helps traders identify key support and resistance zones based on recent session activity.
Features:
Multiple Session Tracking: Displays high/low levels for major FX sessions:
Asian Session (Tokyo)
European Session (London)
US Session (New York)
5-Day Lookback: Captures the highest high and lowest low from each session over the previous 5 trading days
Visual Bands: Clear horizontal lines or filled zones showing session boundaries
Dynamic Updates: Automatically recalculates as new session data becomes available
How to Use:
Support/Resistance: Previous session highs/lows often act as key price levels
Breakout Trading: Watch for price breaking above/below session bands
Range Trading: Trade within the bands during consolidation periods
Session Overlap: Pay attention to multiple session bands converging
Ideal For:
Forex day traders
Session-based trading strategies
Support/resistance identification
Multi-timeframe analysis
Danny Gee EMA Trend RibbonDanny Gee EMA Trend Ribbon - Multi-Timeframe Trend Analysis
A sophisticated 9-EMA ribbon system designed to visualize trend strength and direction with precision. This indicator creates a dynamic color-coded ribbon that adapts to market conditions, making trend identification effortless.
Key Features:
9 Customizable EMAs - Default periods: 8, 14, 20, 26, 32, 38, 44, 50, and 60
Intelligent Ribbon Coloring - Automatically displays bullish (green), bearish (red), or neutral (gray) based on EMA consensus
Smoothing Control - Adjustable smoothing period (default 2) reduces noise and false signals
Real-Time Trend Status - Live dashboard showing current trend state and EMA agreement count (e.g., "Bullish 8/9")
Visual Clarity - Color-coded EMA lines with the 60 EMA highlighted for key support/resistance
How It Works:
The indicator analyzes the slope direction of all 9 EMAs. When 7 or more EMAs agree on direction, the ribbon displays a clear bullish or bearish color. This consensus-based approach helps filter out weak or conflicting trends, keeping you focused on high-probability setups.
Best Used For:
✓ Identifying strong trending conditions
✓ Avoiding choppy, sideways markets
✓ Confirming trade direction with other indicators
✓ Multi-timeframe analysis (works on any chart timeframe)
Customization Options:
Adjust all EMA periods to match your trading style
Customize ribbon colors for personal preference
Toggle ribbon visibility on/off
Modify smoothing sensitivity
Perfect for swing traders, scalpers, and day traders looking for a clean, reliable trend filter that works across all markets - forex, crypto, stocks, and indices.
Session ATR Progression Tracker📊 Session ATR Progression Tracker - SIYL Regression Trading Tool
Track how much of your instrument's 7-day Average True Range (ATR) has been covered during the current trading session. This indicator is specifically designed for regression traders who follow the "Stay In Your Lane" (SIYL) methodology, helping you identify when the probability of mean reversion significantly increases. If you are interested in more on that check out Rod Casselli and tradersdevgroup.com.
🎯 Key Features:
• Real-time ATR Coverage Percentage - See at a glance what percentage of the 7-day ATR has been covered in the current session
• SIYL-Optimized Thresholds - See at a glance when the instrument has achieved 80% and 100% ATR coverage, the proven thresholds where mean reversion probability increases (customizable)
• Flexible Session Modes:
- Daily: Resets at calendar day change
- Session: Uses exchange-defined trading sessions
- Custom Session: Set your exact session start/end times (perfect for futures traders and international markets)
• Visual Alerts - Color-coded display (gray → orange → red) and optional background highlighting
• Repositionable Display - Choose from 9 screen positions to avoid chart clutter
• Session Markers - Green triangles mark the start of each new session
• Detailed Stats - View current range, ATR value, session high/low, and session status
💡 Why Use This Indicator?
This tool is built around a proven concept: regression trading becomes significantly more effective once a session has achieved at least 80% of its 7-day ATR. At this threshold, the probability of price reverting to mean increases substantially, creating higher-probability trade setups for SIYL practitioners.
Benefits for regression traders:
- Identify optimal entry points when mean reversion probability is highest (≥80% ATR coverage)
- Avoid premature regression entries before adequate range has been established
- Recognize when daily moves have "earned their range" and are ripe for reversal
- Time fade-the-move and counter-trend strategies with statistical backing
- Improve win rates by trading only after proven probability thresholds are met
⚙️ Setup Instructions:
1. Add the indicator to your chart
2. Select your preferred "Reset Mode" (recommend "Custom Session" for futures/international markets)
3. If using Custom Session, enter your session times in 24-hour format (e.g., 0930-1600 for US stocks, 1700-1600 for CME futures)
4. Adjust alert thresholds if desired (default: 80% and 100% - proven SIYL thresholds)
5. Position the display where it's most visible on your chart
📈 Works Across All Markets:
Stocks • Futures • Forex • Indices • Crypto • Commodities
Perfect for regression traders, mean reversion specialists, and SIYL practitioners who want to trade with probability on their side by entering only after the session has "earned its range."
---
Tip: For futures contracts with overnight sessions that span calendar days (like MES, MNQ, MYM), use "Custom Session" mode with your exchange's official session times for accurate tracking.
Simple Candle Strategy# Candle Pattern Strategy - Pine Script V6
## Overview
A TradingView trading strategy script (Pine Script V6) that identifies candlestick patterns over a configurable lookback period and generates trading signals based on pattern recognition rules.
## Strategy Logic
The strategy analyzes the most recent N candlesticks (default: 5) and classifies their patterns into three categories, then generates buy/sell signals based on specific pattern combinations.
### Candlestick Pattern Classification
Each candlestick is classified as one of three types:
| Pattern | Definition | Formula |
|---------|-----------|---------|
| **Close at High** | Close price near the highest price of the candle | `(high - close) / (high - low) ≤ (1 - threshold)` |
| **Close at Low** | Close price near the lowest price of the candle | `(close - low) / (high - low) ≤ (1 - threshold)` |
| **Doji** | Opening and closing prices very close; long upper/lower wicks | `abs(close - open) / (high - low) ≤ threshold` |
### Trading Rules
| Condition | Action | Signal |
|-----------|--------|--------|
| Number of Doji candles ≥ 3 | **SKIP** - Market is too chaotic | No trade |
| "Close at High" count ≥ 2 + Last candle closes at high | **LONG** - Bullish confirmation | Buy Signal |
| "Close at Low" count ≥ 2 + Last candle closes at low | **SHORT** - Bearish confirmation | Sell Signal |
## Configuration Parameters
All parameters are adjustable in TradingView's "Settings/Inputs" tab:
| Parameter | Default | Range | Description |
|-----------|---------|-------|-------------|
| **K-line Lookback Period** | 5 | 3-20 | Number of candlesticks to analyze |
| **Doji Threshold** | 0.1 | 0.0-1.0 | Body size / Total range ratio for doji identification |
| **Doji Count Limit** | 3 | 1-10 | Number of dojis that triggers skip signal |
| **Close at High Proximity** | 0.9 | 0.5-1.0 | Required proximity to highest price (0.9 = 90%) |
| **Close at Low Proximity** | 0.9 | 0.5-1.0 | Required proximity to lowest price (0.9 = 90%) |
### Parameter Tuning Guide
#### Proximity Thresholds (Close at High/Low)
- **0.95 or higher**: Stricter - only very strong candles qualify
- **0.90 (default)**: Balanced - good for most market conditions
- **0.80 or lower**: Looser - catches more patterns, higher false signals
#### Doji Threshold
- **0.05-0.10**: Strict doji identification
- **0.10-0.15**: Standard doji detection
- **0.15+**: Includes near-doji patterns
#### Lookback Period
- **3-5 bars**: Fast, sensitive to recent patterns
- **5-10 bars**: Balanced approach
- **10-20 bars**: Slower, filters out noise
## Visual Indicators
### Chart Markers
- **Green Up Arrow** ▲: Long entry signal triggered
- **Red Down Arrow** ▼: Short entry signal triggered
- **Gray X**: Skip signal (too many dojis detected)
### Statistics Table
Located at top-right corner, displays real-time pattern counts:
- **Close at High**: Count of candles closing near the high
- **Close at Low**: Count of candles closing near the low
- **Doji**: Count of doji/near-doji patterns
### Signal Labels
- Green label: "✓ Long condition met" - below entry bar
- Red label: "✓ Short condition met" - above entry bar
- Gray label: "⊠ Too many dojis, skip" - trade skipped
## Risk Management
### Exit Strategy
The strategy includes built-in exit rules based on ATR (Average True Range):
- **Stop Loss**: ATR × 2
- **Take Profit**: ATR × 3
Example: If ATR is $10, stop loss is at -$20 and take profit is at +$30
### Position Sizing
Default: 100% of equity per trade (adjustable in strategy properties)
**Recommendation**: Reduce to 10-25% of equity for safer capital allocation
## How to Use
### 1. Copy the Script
1. Open TradingView
2. Go to Pine Script Editor
3. Create a new indicator
4. Copy the entire `candle_pattern_strategy.pine` content
5. Click "Add to Chart"
### 2. Apply to Chart
- Select your preferred timeframe (1m, 5m, 15m, 1h, 4h, 1d)
- Choose a trading symbol (stocks, forex, crypto, etc.)
- The strategy will generate signals on all historical bars and in real-time
### 3. Configure Parameters
1. Right-click the strategy on chart → "Settings"
2. Adjust parameters in the "Inputs" tab
3. Strategy will recalculate automatically
4. Backtest results appear in the Strategy Tester panel
### 4. Backtesting
1. Click "Strategy Tester" (bottom panel)
2. Set date range for historical testing
3. Review performance metrics:
- Win rate
- Profit factor
- Drawdown
- Total returns
## Key Features
✅ **Execution Model Compliant** - Follows official Pine Script V6 standards
✅ **Global Scope** - All historical references in global scope for consistency
✅ **Adjustable Sensitivity** - Fine-tune all pattern detection thresholds
✅ **Real-time Updates** - Works on both historical and real-time bars
✅ **Visual Feedback** - Clear signals with labels and statistics table
✅ **Risk Management** - Built-in ATR-based stop loss and take profit
✅ **No Repainting** - Signals remain consistent after bar closes
## Important Notes
### Before Trading Live
1. **Backtest thoroughly**: Test on at least 6-12 months of historical data
2. **Paper trading first**: Practice with simulated trades
3. **Optimize parameters**: Find the best settings for your trading instrument
4. **Manage risk**: Never risk more than 1-2% per trade
5. **Monitor performance**: Review trades regularly and adjust as needed
### Market Conditions
The strategy works best in:
- Trending markets with clear directional bias
- Range-bound markets with defined support/resistance
- Markets with moderate volatility
The strategy may underperform in:
- Highly choppy/noisy markets (many false signals)
- Markets with gaps or overnight gaps
- Low liquidity periods
### Limitations
- Works on chart timeframes only (not intrabar analysis)
- Requires at least 5 bars of history (configurable)
- Fixed exit rules may not suit all trading styles
- No trend filtering (will trade both directions)
## Technical Details
### Historical Buffer Management
The strategy declares maximum bars back to ensure enough historical data:
```pine
max_bars_back(close, 20)
max_bars_back(open, 20)
max_bars_back(high, 20)
max_bars_back(low, 20)
```
This prevents runtime errors when accessing historical candlestick data.
### Pattern Detection Algorithm
```
For each bar in lookback period:
1. Calculate (high - close) / (high - low) → close_to_high_ratio
2. If close_to_high_ratio ≤ (1 - threshold) → count as "Close at High"
3. Calculate (close - low) / (high - low) → close_to_low_ratio
4. If close_to_low_ratio ≤ (1 - threshold) → count as "Close at Low"
5. Calculate abs(close - open) / (high - low) → body_ratio
6. If body_ratio ≤ doji_threshold → count as "Doji"
Signal Generation:
7. If doji_count ≥ cross_count_limit → SKIP_SIGNAL
8. If close_at_high_count ≥ 2 AND last_close_at_high → LONG_SIGNAL
9. If close_at_low_count ≥ 2 AND last_close_at_low → SHORT_SIGNAL
```
## Example Scenarios
### Scenario 1: Bullish Signal
```
Last 5 bars pattern:
Bar 1: Closes at high (95%) ✓
Bar 2: Closes at high (92%) ✓
Bar 3: Closes at mid (50%)
Bar 4: Closes at low (10%)
Bar 5: Closes at high (96%) ✓ (last bar)
Result:
- Close at high count: 3 (≥ 2) ✓
- Last closes at high: ✓
- Doji count: 0 (< 3) ✓
→ LONG SIGNAL ✓
```
### Scenario 2: Skip Signal
```
Last 5 bars pattern:
Bar 1: Doji pattern ✓
Bar 2: Doji pattern ✓
Bar 3: Closes at mid
Bar 4: Doji pattern ✓
Bar 5: Closes at high
Result:
- Doji count: 3 (≥ 3)
→ SKIP SIGNAL - Market too chaotic
```
## Performance Optimization
### Tips for Better Results
1. **Use Higher Timeframes**: 15m or higher reduces false signals
2. **Combine with Indicators**: Add volume or trend filters
3. **Seasonal Adjustment**: Different parameters for different seasons
4. **Instrument Selection**: Test on liquid, high-volume instruments
5. **Regular Rebalancing**: Adjust parameters quarterly based on performance
## Troubleshooting
### No Signals Generated
- Check if lookback period is too large
- Verify proximity thresholds aren't too strict (try 0.85 instead of 0.95)
- Ensure doji limit allows for trading (try 4-5 instead of 3)
### Too Many False Signals
- Increase proximity thresholds to 0.95+
- Reduce lookback period to 3-4 bars
- Increase doji limit to 3-4
- Test on higher timeframes
### Strategy Tester Shows Losses
- Review individual trades to identify patterns
- Adjust stop loss and take profit ratios
- Change lookback period and thresholds
- Test on different market conditions
## References
- (www.tradingview.com)
- (www.tradingview.com)
- (www.investopedia.com)
- (www.investopedia.com)
## Disclaimer
**This strategy is provided for educational and research purposes only.**
- Not financial advice
- Past performance does not guarantee future results
- Always conduct thorough backtesting before live trading
- Trading involves significant risk of loss
- Use proper risk management and position sizing
## License
Created: December 15, 2025
Version: 1.0
---
**For updates and modifications, refer to the accompanying documentation files.**
Future Ichimoku Cloud - HorizonIchimoku Horizon is an advanced Ichimoku indicator that projects future cloud formations and component lines, giving traders unprecedented visibility into potential support/resistance zones before they form.
1. Future Ichimoku Projections
Project Ichimoku components forward in time using simulated price evolution based on rolling Tenkan/Kijun windows
Manual forecast periods up to 125 bars (all 4 components) or 500 bars (cloud only)
Smart limit management automatically adjusts to TradingView's drawing object limits while maximizing visible projections
2. Preset & Custom Ichimoku Configurations
Choose from multiple common Ichimoku presets or fully customize your own
3. Multi-Timeframe Display & Projections
Display Ichimoku from higher/lower timeframes directly on your current timeframe chart
Automatic scaling adjusts Ichimoku periods correctly across timeframes
Intelligent handling of 24/7 markets (crypto/forex) vs traditional session-based markets
Built-in detection of problematic timeframe combinations with optional MTF cloud fetching for accuracy
Automatic notifications when future projections are unavailable due to MTF constraints
4. Tenkan & Kijun Range Windows
Visual range windows that display the exact high/low range used for Tenkan and Kijun calculations
Optional High/Low markers placed at the exact bars they occur
Optional countdown labels show how many bars remain until the current High/Low expires from the rolling window
Range windows scale up and down dynamically to match display timeframe
5. Comprehensive Alert Suite
Built-in alerts for all major Ichimoku events: TK crosses, E2E entires, Kumo breakouts, etc.
All alerts are cloud-aware and displacement-correct.
How It Works
The indicator uses the traditional Donchian channel method to calculate Ichimoku components, then extends this logic forward by simulating future price action within the calculation windows (no new highs or lows). This creates a forward-looking projection of where support and resistance zones will form.
The range display feature helps traders understand why the lines are where they are by showing the exact high/low points and countdown timers for when these points will expire from the calculation.
Who This Indicator Is For:
Ichimoku traders who want future-aware context
Multi-timeframe analysts seeking correctly aligned clouds
Traders who want to understand Tenkan/Kijun mechanics
Users who need precision without manual recalculation
Notes:
Maximum 500 drawing objects limit managed automatically
Due to Pinescript/TradingView limitations, future Tenkan/Kijun line width is only modifiable in the source code.
