Double Weighted Moving Average (DWMA)# DWMA: Double Weighted Moving Average
## Overview and Purpose
The Double Weighted Moving Average (DWMA) is a technical indicator that applies weighted averaging twice in sequence to create a smoother signal with enhanced noise reduction. Developed in the late 1990s as an evolution of traditional weighted moving averages, the DWMA was created by quantitative analysts seeking enhanced smoothing without the excessive lag typically associated with longer period averages. By applying a weighted moving average calculation to the results of an initial weighted moving average, DWMA achieves more effective filtering while preserving important trend characteristics.
## Core Concepts
* **Cascaded filtering:** DWMA applies weighted averaging twice in sequence for enhanced smoothing and superior noise reduction
* **Linear weighting:** Uses progressively increasing weights for more recent data in both calculation passes
* **Market application:** Particularly effective for trend following strategies where noise reduction is prioritized over rapid signal response
* **Timeframe flexibility:** Works across multiple timeframes but particularly valuable on daily and weekly charts for identifying significant trends
The core innovation of DWMA is its two-stage approach that creates more effective noise filtering while minimizing the additional lag typically associated with longer-period or higher-order filters. This sequential processing creates a more refined output that balances noise reduction and signal preservation better than simply increasing the length of a standard weighted moving average.
## Common Settings and Parameters
| Parameter | Default | Function | When to Adjust |
|-----------|---------|----------|---------------|
| Length | 14 | Controls the lookback period for both WMA calculations | Increase for smoother signals in volatile markets, decrease for more responsiveness |
| Source | close | Price data used for calculation | Consider using hlc3 for a more balanced price representation |
**Pro Tip:** For trend following, use a length of 10-14 with DWMA instead of a single WMA with double the period - this provides better smoothing with less lag than simply increasing the period of a standard WMA.
## Calculation and Mathematical Foundation
**Simplified explanation:**
DWMA first calculates a weighted moving average where recent prices have more importance than older prices. Then, it applies the same weighted calculation again to the results of the first calculation, creating a smoother line that reduces market noise more effectively.
**Technical formula:**
```
DWMA is calculated by applying WMA twice:
1. First WMA calculation:
WMA₁ = (P₁ × w₁ + P₂ × w₂ + ... + Pₙ × wₙ) / (w₁ + w₂ + ... + wₙ)
2. Second WMA calculation applied to WMA₁:
DWMA = (WMA₁₁ × w₁ + WMA₁₂ × w₂ + ... + WMA₁ₙ × wₙ) / (w₁ + w₂ + ... + wₙ)
```
Where:
- Linear weights: most recent value has weight = n, second most recent has weight = n-1, etc.
- n is the period length
- Sum of weights = n(n+1)/2
**O(1) Optimization - Inline Dual WMA Architecture:**
This implementation uses an advanced O(1) algorithm with two complete inline WMA calculations. Each WMA uses the dual running sums technique:
1. **First WMA (source → wma1)**:
- Maintains buffer1, sum1, weighted_sum1
- Recurrence: `W₁_new = W₁_old - S₁_old + (n × P_new)`
- Cached denominator norm1 after warmup
2. **Second WMA (wma1 → dwma)**:
- Maintains buffer2, sum2, weighted_sum2
- Recurrence: `W₂_new = W₂_old - S₂_old + (n × WMA₁_new)`
- Cached denominator norm2 after warmup
**Implementation details:**
- Both WMAs fully integrated inline (no helper functions)
- Each maintains independent state: buffers, sums, counters, norms
- Both warm up independently from bar 1
- Performance: ~16 operations per bar regardless of period (vs ~10,000 for naive O(n²) implementation)
**Why inline architecture:**
Unlike helper functions, the inline approach makes all state variables and calculations visible in a single scope, eliminating function call overhead and making the dual-pass nature explicit. This is ideal for educational purposes and when debugging complex cascaded filters.
> 🔍 **Technical Note:** The dual-pass O(1) approach creates a filter that effectively increases smoothing without the quadratic increase in computational cost. Original O(n²) implementations required ~10,000 operations for period=100; this optimized version requires only ~16 operations, achieving a 625x speedup while maintaining exact mathematical equivalence.
## Interpretation Details
DWMA can be used in various trading strategies:
* **Trend identification:** The direction of DWMA indicates the prevailing trend
* **Signal generation:** Crossovers between price and DWMA generate trade signals, though they occur later than with single WMA
* **Support/resistance levels:** DWMA can act as dynamic support during uptrends and resistance during downtrends
* **Trend strength assessment:** Distance between price and DWMA can indicate trend strength
* **Noise filtering:** Using DWMA to filter noisy price data before applying other indicators
## Limitations and Considerations
* **Market conditions:** Less effective in choppy, sideways markets where its lag becomes a disadvantage
* **Lag factor:** More lag than single WMA due to double calculation process
* **Initialization requirement:** Requires more data points for full calculation, showing more NA values at chart start
* **Short-term trading:** May miss short-term trading opportunities due to increased smoothing
* **Complementary tools:** Best used with momentum oscillators or volume indicators for confirmation
## References
* Jurik, M. "Double Weighted Moving Averages: Theory and Applications in Algorithmic Trading Systems", Jurik Research Papers, 2004
* Ehlers, J.F. "Cycle Analytics for Traders," Wiley, 2013
"pro"に関するスクリプトを検索
Weighted Moving Average (WMA)This implementation uses O(1) algorithm that eliminates the need to loop through all period values on each bar. It also generates valid WMA values from the first bar and is not returning NA when number of bars is less than period.
## Overview and Purpose
The Weighted Moving Average (WMA) is a technical indicator that applies progressively increasing weights to more recent price data. Emerging in the early 1950s during the formative years of technical analysis, WMA gained significant adoption among professional traders through the 1970s as computational methods became more accessible. The approach was formalized in Robert Colby's 1988 "Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators," establishing it as a staple in technical analysis software. Unlike the Simple Moving Average (SMA) which gives equal weight to all prices, WMA assigns greater importance to recent prices, creating a more responsive indicator that reacts faster to price changes while still providing effective noise filtering.
## Core Concepts
* **Linear weighting:** WMA applies progressively increasing weights to more recent price data, creating a recency bias that improves responsiveness
* **Market application:** Particularly effective for identifying trend changes earlier than SMA while maintaining better noise filtering than faster-responding averages like EMA
* **Timeframe flexibility:** Works effectively across all timeframes, with appropriate period adjustments for different trading horizons
The core innovation of WMA is its linear weighting scheme, which strikes a balance between the equal-weight approach of SMA and the exponential decay of EMA. This creates an intuitive and effective compromise that prioritizes recent data while maintaining a finite lookback period, making it particularly valuable for traders seeking to reduce lag without excessive sensitivity to price fluctuations.
## Common Settings and Parameters
| Parameter | Default | Function | When to Adjust |
|-----------|---------|----------|---------------|
| Length | 14 | Controls the lookback period | Increase for smoother signals in volatile markets, decrease for responsiveness |
| Source | close | Price data used for calculation | Consider using hlc3 for a more balanced price representation |
**Pro Tip:** For most trading applications, using a WMA with period N provides better responsiveness than an SMA with the same period, while generating fewer whipsaws than an EMA with comparable responsiveness.
## Calculation and Mathematical Foundation
**Simplified explanation:**
WMA calculates a weighted average of prices where the most recent price receives the highest weight, and each progressively older price receives one unit less weight. For example, in a 5-period WMA, the most recent price gets a weight of 5, the next most recent a weight of 4, and so on, with the oldest price getting a weight of 1.
**Technical formula:**
```
WMA = (P₁ × w₁ + P₂ × w₂ + ... + Pₙ × wₙ) / (w₁ + w₂ + ... + wₙ)
```
Where:
- Linear weights: most recent value has weight = n, second most recent has weight = n-1, etc.
- The sum of weights for a period n is calculated as: n(n+1)/2
- For example, for a 5-period WMA, the sum of weights is 5(5+1)/2 = 15
**O(1) Optimization - Dual Running Sums:**
The key insight is maintaining two running sums:
1. **Unweighted sum (S)**: Simple sum of all values in the window
2. **Weighted sum (W)**: Sum of all weighted values
The recurrence relation for a full window is:
```
W_new = W_old - S_old + (n × P_new)
```
This works because when all weights decrement by 1 (as the window slides), it's mathematically equivalent to subtracting the entire unweighted sum. The implementation:
- **During warmup**: Accumulates both sums as the window fills, computing denominator each bar
- **After warmup**: Uses cached denominator (constant at n(n+1)/2), updates both sums in constant time
- **Performance**: ~8 operations per bar regardless of period, vs ~100+ for naive O(n) implementation
> 🔍 **Technical Note:** Unlike EMA which theoretically considers all historical data (with diminishing influence), WMA has a finite memory, completely dropping prices that fall outside its lookback window. This creates a cleaner break from outdated market conditions. The O(1) optimization achieves 12-25x speedup over naive implementations while maintaining exact mathematical equivalence.
## Interpretation Details
WMA can be used in various trading strategies:
* **Trend identification:** The direction of WMA indicates the prevailing trend with greater responsiveness than SMA
* **Signal generation:** Crossovers between price and WMA generate trade signals earlier than with SMA
* **Support/resistance levels:** WMA can act as dynamic support during uptrends and resistance during downtrends
* **Moving average crossovers:** When a shorter-period WMA crosses above a longer-period WMA, it signals a potential uptrend (and vice versa)
* **Trend strength assessment:** Distance between price and WMA can indicate trend strength
## Limitations and Considerations
* **Market conditions:** Still suboptimal in highly volatile or sideways markets where enhanced responsiveness may generate false signals
* **Lag factor:** While less than SMA, still introduces some lag in signal generation
* **Abrupt window exit:** The oldest price suddenly drops out of calculation when leaving the window, potentially causing small jumps
* **Step changes:** Linear weighting creates discrete steps in influence rather than a smooth decay
* **Complementary tools:** Best used with volume indicators and momentum oscillators for confirmation
## References
* Colby, Robert W. "The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators." McGraw-Hill, 2002
* Murphy, John J. "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets." New York Institute of Finance, 1999
* Kaufman, Perry J. "Trading Systems and Methods." Wiley, 2013
Luxy BIG beautiful Dynamic ORBThis is an advanced Opening Range Breakout (ORB) indicator that tracks price breakouts from the first 5, 15, 30, and 60 minutes of the trading session. It provides complete trade management including entry signals, stop-loss placement, take-profit targets, and position sizing calculations.
The ORB strategy is based on the concept that the opening range of a trading session often acts as support/resistance, and breakouts from this range tend to lead to significant moves.
What Makes This Different?
Most ORB indicators simply draw horizontal lines and leave you to figure out the rest. This indicator goes several steps further:
Multi-Stage Tracking
Instead of just one ORB timeframe, this tracks FOUR simultaneously (5min, 15min, 30min, 60min). Each stage builds on the previous one, giving you multiple trading opportunities throughout the session.
Active Trade Management
When a breakout occurs, the indicator automatically calculates and displays entry price, stop-loss, and multiple take-profit targets. These lines extend forward and update in real-time until the trade completes.
Cycle Detection
Unlike indicators that only show the first breakout, this tracks the complete cycle: Breakout → Retest → Re-breakout. You can see when price returns to test the ORB level after breaking out (potential re-entry).
Failed Breakout Warning
If price breaks out but quickly returns inside the range (within a few bars), the label changes to "FAILED BREAK" - warning you to exit or avoid the trade.
Position Sizing Calculator
Built-in risk management that tells you exactly how many shares to buy based on your account size and risk tolerance. No more guessing or manual calculations.
Advanced Filtering
Optional filters for volume confirmation, trend alignment, and Fair Value Gaps (FVG) to reduce false signals and improve win rate.
Core Features Explained
### 1. Multi-Stage ORB Levels
The indicator builds four separate Opening Range levels:
ORB 5 - First 5 minutes (fastest signals, most volatile)
ORB 15 - First 15 minutes (balanced, most popular)
ORB 30 - First 30 minutes (slower, more reliable)
ORB 60 - First 60 minutes (slowest, most confirmed)
Each level is drawn as a horizontal range on your chart. As time progresses, the ranges expand to include more price action. You can enable or disable any stage and assign custom colors to each.
How it works: During the opening minutes, the indicator tracks the highest high and lowest low. Once the time period completes, those levels become your ORB high and low for that stage.
### 2. Breakout Detection
When price closes outside the ORB range, a label appears:
BREAK UP (green label above price) - Price closed above ORB High
BREAK DOWN (red label below price) - Price closed below ORB Low
The label shows which ORB stage triggered (ORB5, ORB15, etc.) and the cycle number if tracking multiple breakouts.
Important: Signals appear on bar close only - no repainting. What you see is what you get.
### 3. Retest Detection
After price breaks out and moves away, if it returns to test the ORB level, a "RETEST" label appears (orange). This indicates:
The original breakout level is now acting as support/resistance
Potential re-entry opportunity if you missed the first breakout
Confirmation that the level is significant
The indicator requires price to move a minimum distance away before considering it a valid retest (configurable in settings).
### 4. Failed Breakout Detection
If price breaks out but returns inside the ORB range within a few bars (before the breakout is "committed"), the original label changes to "FAILED BREAK" in orange.
This warns you:
The breakout lacked conviction
Consider exiting if already in the trade
Wait for better setup
Committed Breakout: The indicator tracks how many bars price stays outside the range. Only after staying outside for the minimum number of bars does it become a committed breakout that can be retested.
### 5. TP/SL Lines (Trade Management)
When a breakout occurs, colored horizontal lines appear showing:
Entry Line (cyan for long, orange for short) - Your entry price (the ORB level)
Stop Loss Line (red) - Where to exit if trade goes against you
TP1, TP2, TP3 Lines (same color as entry) - Profit targets at 1R, 2R, 3R
These lines extend forward as new bars form, making it easy to track your trade. When a target is hit, the line turns green and the label shows a checkmark.
Lines freeze (stop updating) when:
Stop loss is hit
The final enabled take-profit is hit
End of trading session (optional setting)
### 6. Position Sizing Dashboard
The dashboard (bottom-left corner by default) shows real-time information:
Current ORB stage and range size
Breakout status (Inside Range / Break Up / Break Down)
Volume confirmation (if filter enabled)
Trend alignment (if filter enabled)
Entry and Stop Loss prices
All enabled Take Profit levels with percentages
Risk/Reward ratio
Position sizing: Max shares to buy and total risk amount
Position Sizing Example:
If your account is $25,000 and you risk 1% per trade ($250), and the distance from entry to stop loss is $0.50, the calculator shows you can buy 500 shares (250 / 0.50 = 500).
### 7. FVG Filter (Fair Value Gap)
Fair Value Gaps are price inefficiencies - gaps left by strong momentum where one candle's high doesn't overlap with a previous candle's low (or vice versa).
When enabled, this filter:
Detects bullish and bearish FVGs
Draws semi-transparent boxes around these gaps
Only allows breakout signals if there's an FVG near the breakout level
Why this helps: FVGs indicate institutional activity. Breakouts through FVGs tend to be stronger and more reliable.
Proximity setting: Controls how close the FVG must be to the ORB level. 2.0x means the breakout can be within 2 times the FVG size - a reasonable default.
### 8. Volume & Trend Filters
Volume Filter:
Requires current volume to be above average (customizable multiplier). High volume breakouts are more likely to sustain.
Set minimum multiplier (e.g., 1.5x = 50% above average)
Set "strong volume" multiplier (e.g., 2.5x) that bypasses other filters
Dashboard shows current volume ratio
Trend Filter:
Only shows breakouts aligned with a higher timeframe trend. Choose from:
VWAP - Price above/below volume-weighted average
EMA - Price above/below exponential moving average
SuperTrend - ATR-based trend indicator
Combined modes (VWAP+EMA, VWAP+SuperTrend) for stricter filtering
### 9. Pullback Filter (Advanced)
Purpose:
Waits for price to pull back slightly after initial breakout before confirming the signal.
This reduces false breakouts from immediate reversals.
How it works:
- After breakout is detected, indicator waits for a small pullback (default 2%)
- Once pullback occurs AND price breaks out again, signal is confirmed
- If no pullback within timeout period (5 bars), signal is issued anyway
Settings:
Enable Pullback Filter: Turn this filter on/off
Pullback %: How much price must pull back (2% is balanced)
Timeout (bars): Max bars to wait for pullback (5 is standard)
When to use:
- Choppy markets with many fake breakouts
- When you want higher quality signals
- Combine with Volume filter for maximum confirmation
Trade-off:
- Better signal quality
- May miss some valid fast moves
- Slight entry delay
How to Use This Indicator
### For Beginners - Simple Setup
Add the indicator to your chart (5-minute or 15-minute timeframe recommended)
Leave all default settings - they work well for most stocks
Watch for BREAK UP or BREAK DOWN labels to appear
Check the dashboard for entry, stop loss, and targets
Use the position sizing to determine how many shares to buy
Basic Trading Plan:
Wait for a clear breakout label
Enter at the ORB level (or next candle open if you're late)
Place stop loss where the red line indicates
Take profit at TP1 (50% of position) and TP2 (remaining 50%)
### For Advanced Traders - Customized Setup
Choose which ORB stages to track (you might only want ORB15 and ORB30)
Enable filters: Volume (stocks) or Trend (trending markets)
Enable FVG filter for institutional confirmation
Set "Track Cycles" mode to catch retests and re-breakouts
Customize stop loss method (ATR for volatile stocks, ORB% for stable ones)
Adjust risk per trade and account size for accurate position sizing
Advanced Strategy Example:
Enable ORB15 only (disable others for cleaner chart)
Turn on Volume filter at 1.5x with Strong at 2.5x
Enable Trend filter using VWAP
Set Signal Mode to "Track Cycles" with Max 3 cycles
Wait for aligned breakouts (Volume + Trend + Direction)
Enter on retest if you missed the initial break
### Timeframe Recommendations
5-minute chart: Scalping, very active trading, crypto
15-minute chart: Day trading, balanced approach (most popular)
30-minute chart: Swing entries, less screen time
60-minute chart: Position trading, longer holds
The indicator works on any intraday timeframe, but ORB is fundamentally a day trading strategy. Daily charts don't make sense for ORB.
DEFAULT CONFIGURATION
ON by Default:
• All 4 ORB stages (5/15/30/60)
• Breakout Detection
• Retest Labels
• All TP levels (1/1.5/2/3)
• TP/SL Lines (Detailed mode)
• Dashboard (Bottom Left, Dark theme)
• Position Size Calculator
OFF by Default (Optional Filters):
• FVG Filter
• Pullback Filter
• Volume Filter
• Trend Filter
• HTF Bias Check
• Alerts
Recommended for Beginners:
• Leave all defaults
• Session Mode: Auto-Detect
• Signal Mode: Track Cycles
• Stop Method: ATR
• Add Volume Filter if trading stocks
Recommended for Advanced:
• Enable ORB15 + ORB30 only (disable 5 & 60)
• Enable: Volume + Trend + FVG
• Signal Mode: Track Cycles, Max 3
• Stop Method: ATR or Safer
• Enable HTF Daily bias check
## Settings Guide
The settings are organized into logical groups. Here's what each section controls:
### ORB COLORS Section
Show Edge Labels: Display "ORB 5", "ORB 15" labels at the right edge of the levels
Background: Fill the area between ORB high/low with color
Transparency: How see-through the background is (95% is nearly invisible)
Enable ORB 5/15/30/60: Turn each stage on or off individually
Colors: Assign colors to each ORB stage for easy identification
### SESSION SETTINGS Section
Session Mode: Choose trading session (Auto-Detect works for most instruments)
Custom Session Hours: Define your own hours if needed (format: HHMM-HHMM)
Auto-Detect uses the instrument's natural hours (stocks use exchange hours, crypto uses 24/7).
### BREAKOUT DETECTION Section
Enable Breakout Detection: Master switch for signals
Show Retest Labels: Display retest signals
Label Size: Visual size for all labels (Small recommended)
Enable FVG Filter: Require Fair Value Gap confirmation
Show FVG Boxes: Display the gap boxes on chart
Signal Mode: "First Only" = one signal per direction per day, "Track Cycles" = multiple signals
Max Cycles: How many breakout-retest cycles to track (6 is balanced)
Breakout Buffer: Extra distance required beyond ORB level (0.1-0.2% recommended)
Min Distance for Retest: How far price must move away before retest is valid (2% recommended)
Min Bars Outside ORB: Bars price must stay outside for committed breakout (2 is balanced)
### TARGETS & RISK Section
Enable Targets & Stop-Loss: Calculate and show trade management
TP1/TP2/TP3 checkboxes: Select which profit targets to display
Stop Method: How to calculate stop loss placement
- ATR: Based on volatility (best for most cases)
- ORB %: Fixed % of ORB range
- Swing: Recent swing high/low
- Safer: Widest of all methods
ATR Length & Multiplier: Controls ATR stop distance (14 period, 1.5x is standard)
ORB Stop %: Percentage beyond ORB for stop (20% is balanced)
Swing Bars: Lookback period for swing high/low (3 is recent)
### TP/SL LINES Section
Show TP/SL Lines: Display horizontal lines on chart
Label Format: "Short" = minimal text, "Detailed" = shows prices
Freeze Lines at EOD: Stop extending lines at session close
### DASHBOARD Section
Show Info Panel: Display the metrics dashboard
Theme: Dark or Light colors
Position: Where to place dashboard on chart
Toggle rows: Show/hide specific information rows
Calculate Position Size: Enable the position sizing calculator
Risk Mode: Risk fixed $ amount or % of account
Account Size: Your total trading capital
Risk %: Percentage to risk per trade (0.5-1% recommended)
### VOLUME FILTER Section
Enable Volume Filter: Require volume confirmation
MA Length: Average period (20 is standard)
Min Volume: Required multiplier (1.5x = 50% above average)
Strong Volume: Multiplier that bypasses other filters (2.5x)
### TREND FILTER Section
Enable Trend Filter: Require trend alignment
Trend Mode: Method to determine trend (VWAP is simple and effective)
Custom EMA Length: If using EMA mode (50 for swing, 20 for day trading)
SuperTrend settings: Period and Multiplier if using SuperTrend mode
### HIGHER TIMEFRAME Section
Check Daily Trend: Display higher timeframe bias in dashboard
Timeframe: What TF to check (D = daily, recommended)
Method: Price vs MA (stable) or Candle Direction (reactive)
MA Period: EMA length for Price vs MA method (20 is balanced)
Min Strength %: Minimum strength threshold for HTF bias to be considered
- For "Price vs MA": Minimum distance (%) from moving average
- For "Candle Direction": Minimum candle body size (%)
- 0.5% is balanced - increase for stricter filtering
- Lower values = more signals, higher values = only strong trends
### ALERTS Section
Enable Alerts: Master switch (must be ON to use any alerts)
Breakout Alerts: Notify on ORB breakouts
Retest Alerts: Notify when price retests after breakout
Failed Break Alerts: Notify on failed breakouts
Stage Complete Alerts: Notify when each ORB stage finishes forming
After enabling desired alert types, click "Create Alert" button, select this indicator, choose "Any alert() function call".
## Tips & Best Practices
### General Trading Tips
ORB works best on liquid instruments (stocks with good volume, major crypto pairs)
First hour of the session is most important - that's when ORB is forming
Breakouts WITH the trend have higher success rates - use the trend filter
Failed breakouts are common - use the "Min Bars Outside" setting to filter weak moves
Not every day produces good ORB setups - be patient and selective
### Position Sizing Best Practices
Never risk more than 1-2% of your account on a single trade
Use the built-in calculator - don't guess your position size
Update your account size monthly as it grows
Smaller accounts: use $ Amount mode for simplicity
Larger accounts: use % of Account mode for scaling
### Take Profit Strategy
Most traders use: 50% at TP1, 50% at TP2
Aggressive: Hold through TP1 for TP2 or TP3
Conservative: Full exit at TP1 (1:1 risk/reward)
After TP1 hits, consider moving stop to breakeven
TP3 rarely hits - only on strong trending days
### Filter Combinations
Maximum Quality: Volume + Trend + FVG (fewest signals, highest quality)
Balanced: Volume + Trend (good quality, reasonable frequency)
Active Trading: No filters or Volume only (many signals, lower quality)
Trending Markets: Trend filter essential (indices, crypto)
Range-Bound: Volume + FVG (avoid trend filter)
### Common Mistakes to Avoid
Chasing breakouts - wait for the bar to close, don't FOMO into wicks
Ignoring the stop loss - always use it, move it manually if needed
Over-leveraging - the calculator shows MAX shares, you can buy less
Trading every signal - quality > quantity, use filters
Not tracking results - keep a journal to see what works for YOU
## Pros and Cons
### Advantages
Complete all-in-one solution - from signal to position sizing
Multiple timeframes tracked simultaneously
Visual clarity - easy to see what's happening
Cycle tracking catches opportunities others miss
Built-in risk management eliminates guesswork
Customizable filters for different trading styles
No repainting - what you see is locked in
Works across multiple markets (stocks, forex, crypto)
### Limitations
Intraday strategy only - doesn't work on daily charts
Requires active monitoring during first 1-2 hours of session
Not suitable for after-hours or extended sessions by default
Can produce many signals in choppy markets (use filters)
Dashboard can be overwhelming for complete beginners
Performance depends on market conditions (trends vs ranges)
Requires understanding of risk management concepts
### Best For
Day traders who can watch the first 1-2 hours of market open
Traders who want systematic entry/exit rules
Those learning proper position sizing and risk management
Active traders comfortable with multiple signals per day
Anyone trading liquid instruments with clear sessions
### Not Ideal For
Swing traders holding multi-day positions
Set-and-forget / passive investors
Traders who can't watch market open
Complete beginners unfamiliar with trading concepts
Low volume / illiquid instruments
## Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Why are no signals appearing?
A: Check that you're on an intraday timeframe (5min, 15min, etc.) and that the current time is within your session hours. Also verify that "Enable Breakout Detection" is ON and at least one ORB stage is enabled. If using filters, they might be blocking signals - try disabling them temporarily.
Q: What's the best ORB stage to use?
A: ORB15 (15 minutes) is most popular and balanced. ORB5 gives faster signals but more noise. ORB30 and ORB60 are slower but more reliable. Many traders use ORB15 + ORB30 together.
Q: Should I enable all the filters?
A: Start with no filters to see all signals. If too many false signals, add Volume filter first (stocks) or Trend filter (trending markets). FVG filter is most restrictive - use for maximum quality but fewer signals.
Q: How do I know which stop loss method to use?
A: ATR works for most cases - it adapts to volatility. Use ORB% if you want predictable stop placement. Swing is for respecting chart structure. Safer gives you the most room but largest risk.
Q: Can I use this for swing trading?
A: Not really - ORB is fundamentally an intraday strategy. The ranges reset each day. For swing trading, look at weekly support/resistance or moving averages instead.
Q: Why do TP/SL lines disappear sometimes?
A: Lines freeze (stop extending) when: stop loss is hit, the last enabled take-profit is hit, or end of session arrives (if "Freeze at EOD" is enabled). This is intentional - the trade is complete.
Q: What's the difference between "First Only" and "Track Cycles"?
A: "First Only" shows one breakout UP and one DOWN per day maximum - clean but might miss opportunities. "Track Cycles" shows breakout-retest-rebreak sequences - more signals but busier chart.
Q: Is position sizing accurate for options/forex?
A: The calculator is designed for shares (stocks). For options, ignore the share count and use the risk amount. For forex, you'll need to adapt the lot size calculation manually.
Q: How much capital do I need to use this?
A: The indicator works for any account size, but practical day trading typically requires $25,000 in the US due to Pattern Day Trader rules. Adjust the "Account Size" setting to match your capital.
Q: Can I backtest this strategy?
A: This is an indicator, not a strategy script, so it doesn't have built-in backtesting. You can visually review historical signals or code a strategy script using similar logic.
Q: Why does the dashboard show different entry price than the breakout label?
A: If you're looking at an old breakout, the ORB levels may have changed when the next stage completed. The dashboard always shows the CURRENT active range and trade setup.
Q: What's a good win rate to expect?
A: ORB strategies typically see 40-60% win rate depending on market conditions and filters used. The strategy relies on positive risk/reward ratios (2:1 or better) to be profitable even with moderate win rates.
Q: Does this work on crypto?
A: Yes, but crypto trades 24/7 so you need to define what "session start" means. Use Session Mode = Custom and set your preferred daily reset time (e.g., 0000-2359 UTC).
## Credits & Transparency
### Development
This indicator was developed with the assistance of AI technology to implement complex ORB trading logic.
The strategy concept, feature specifications, and trading logic were designed by the publisher. The implementation leverages modern development tools to ensure:
Clean, efficient, and maintainable code
Comprehensive error handling and input validation
Detailed documentation and user guidance
Performance optimization
### Trading Concepts
This indicator implements several public domain trading concepts:
Opening Range Breakout (ORB): Trading strategy popularized by Toby Crabel, Mark Fisher and many more talanted traders.
Fair Value Gap (FVG): Price imbalance concept from ICT methodology
SuperTrend: ATR-based trend indicator using public formula
Risk/Reward Ratio: Standard risk management principle
All mathematical formulas and technical concepts used are in the public domain.
### Pine Script
Uses standard TradingView built-in functions:
ta.ema(), ta.atr(), ta.vwap(), ta.highest(), ta.lowest(), request.security()
No external libraries or proprietary code from other authors.
## Disclaimer
This indicator is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice.
Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance shown in examples is not indicative of future results.
The indicator provides signals and calculations, but trading decisions are solely your responsibility. Always:
Test strategies on paper before using real money
Never risk more than you can afford to lose
Understand that all trading involves risk
Consider seeking advice from a licensed financial advisor
The publisher makes no guarantees regarding accuracy, profitability, or performance. Use at your own risk.
---
Version: 3.0
Pine Script Version: v6
Last Updated: October 2024
For support, questions, or suggestions, please comment below or send a private message.
---
Happy trading, and remember: consistent risk management beats perfect entry timing every time.
Holt Damped Forecast [CHE]A Friendly Note on These Pine Script Scripts
Hey there! Just wanted to share a quick, heartfelt heads-up: All these Pine Script examples come straight from my own self-study adventures as a total autodidact—think late nights tinkering and learning on my own. They're purely for educational vibes, helping me (and hopefully you!) get the hang of Pine Script basics, cool indicators, and building simple strategies.
That said, please know this isn't any kind of financial advice, investment nudge, or pro-level trading blueprint. I'd love for you to dive in with your own research, run those backtests like a champ, and maybe bounce ideas off a qualified expert before trying anything in a real trading setup. No guarantees here on performance or spot-on accuracy—trading's got its risks, and those are totally on each of us.
Let's keep it fun and educational—happy coding! 😊
Holt Damped Forecast — Damped trend forecasts with fan bands for uncertainty visualization and momentum integration
Summary
This indicator applies damped exponential smoothing to generate forward price forecasts, displaying them as probabilistic fan bands to highlight potential ranges rather than point estimates. It incorporates residual-based uncertainty to make projections more reliable in varying market conditions, reducing overconfidence in strong trends. Momentum from the trend component is shown in an optional label alongside signals, aiding quick assessment of direction and strength without relying on lagging oscillators.
Motivation: Why this design?
Standard exponential smoothing often extrapolates trends indefinitely, leading to unrealistic forecasts during mean reversion or weakening momentum. This design uses damping to gradually flatten long-term projections, better suiting real markets where trends fade. It addresses the need for visual uncertainty in forecasts, helping traders avoid entries based on overly optimistic point predictions.
What’s different vs. standard approaches?
- Reference baseline: Diverges from basic Holt's linear exponential smoothing, which assumes persistent trends without decay.
- Architecture differences:
- Adds damping to the trend extrapolation for finite-horizon realism.
- Builds fan bands from historical residuals for probabilistic ranges at multiple confidence levels.
- Integrates a dynamic label combining forecast details, scaled momentum, and directional signals.
- Applies tail background coloring to recent bars based on forecast direction for immediate visual cues.
- Practical effect: Charts show converging forecast bands over time, emphasizing shorter horizons where accuracy is higher. This visibly tempers aggressive projections in trends, making it easier to spot when uncertainty widens, which signals potential reversals or consolidation.
How it works (technical)
The indicator maintains two persistent components: a level tracking the current price baseline and a trend capturing directional slope. On each bar, the level updates by blending the current source price with a one-step-ahead expectation from the prior level and damped trend. The trend then adjusts by weighting the change in level against the prior damped trend. Forecasts extend this forward over a user-defined number of steps, with damping ensuring the trend influence diminishes over distance.
Uncertainty derives from the standard deviation of historical residuals—the differences between actual prices and one-step expectations—scaled by the damping structure for the forecast horizon. Bands form around the median forecast at specified confidence intervals using these scaled errors. Initialization seeds the level to the first bar's price and trend to zero, with persistence handling subsequent updates. A security call fetches the last bar index for tail logic, using lookahead to align with realtime but introducing minor repaint on unconfirmed bars.
Parameter Guide
The Source parameter selects the price input for level and residual calculations, defaulting to close; consider using high or low for assets sensitive to volatility, as close works well for most trend-following setups. Forecast Steps (h) defines the number of bars ahead for projections, defaulting to 4—shorter values like 1 to 5 suit intraday trading, while longer ones may widen bands excessively in choppy conditions. The Color Scheme (2025 Trends) option sets the base, up, and down colors for bands, labels, and backgrounds, starting with Ruby Dawn; opt for serene schemes on clean charts or vibrant ones to stand out in dark themes.
Level Smoothing α controls the responsiveness of the price baseline, defaulting to 0.3—values above 0.5 enhance tracking in fast markets but may amplify noise, whereas lower settings filter disturbances better. Trend Smoothing β adjusts sensitivity to slope changes, at 0.1 by default; increasing to 0.2 helps detect emerging shifts quicker, but keeping it low prevents whipsaws in sideways action. Damping φ (0..1) governs trend persistence, defaulting to 0.8—near 0.9 preserves carryover in sustained moves, while closer to 0.5 curbs overextensions more aggressively.
Show Fan Bands (50/75/95) toggles the probabilistic range display, enabled by default; disable it in oscillator panes to reduce clutter, but it's key for overlay forecasts. Residual Window (Bars) sets the length for deviation estimates, at 400 bars initially—100 to 200 works for short timeframes, and 500 or more adds stability over extended histories. Line Width determines the thickness of band and median lines, defaulting to 2; go thicker at 3 to 5 for emphasis on higher timeframes or thinner for layered indicators.
Show Median/Forecast Line reveals the central projection, on by default—hide if bands provide enough detail, or keep for pinpoint entry references. Show Integrated Label activates the combined view of forecast, momentum, and signal, defaulting to true; it's right-aligned for convenience, so turn it off on smaller screens to save space. Show Tail Background colors the last few bars by forecast direction, enabled initially; pair low transparency for subtle hints or higher for bolder emphasis.
Tail Length (Bars) specifies bars to color backward from the current one, at 3 by default—1 to 2 fits scalping, while 5 or more underscores building momentum. Tail Transparency (%) fades the background intensity, starting at 80; 50 to 70 delivers strong signals, and 90 or above allows seamless blending. Include Momentum in Label adds the scaled trend value, defaulting to true—ATR% scaling here offers relative strength context across assets.
Include Long/Short/Neutral Signal in Label displays direction from the trend sign, on by default; neutral helps in ranging markets, though it can be overlooked during strong trends. Scaling normalizes momentum output (raw, ATR-relative, or level-relative), set to ATR% initially—ATR% ensures cross-asset comparability, while %Level provides percentage perspectives. ATR Length defines the period for true range averaging in scaling, at 14; align it with your chart timeframe or shorten for quicker volatility responses.
Decimals sets precision in the momentum label, defaulting to 2—0 to 1 yields clean integers, and 3 or more suits detailed forex views. Show Zero-Cross Markers places arrows at direction changes, enabled by default; keep size small to minimize clutter, with text labels for fast scanning.
Reading & Interpretation
Fan bands expand outward from the current bar, with the median line as the central forecast—narrower bands indicate lower uncertainty, wider suggest caution. Colors tint up (positive forecast vs. prior level) in the scheme's up hue and down otherwise. The optional label lists the horizon, median, and range brackets at 50%, 75%, and 95% levels, followed by momentum (scaled per mode) and signal (Long if positive trend, Short if negative, Neutral if zero). Zero-cross arrows mark trend flips: upward triangle below bar for bullish cross, downward above for bearish. Tail background reinforces the forecast direction on recent bars.
Practical Workflows & Combinations
- Trend following: Enter long on upward zero-cross if median forecast rises above price and bands contain it; confirm with higher highs/lows. Short on downward cross with falling median.
- Exits/Stops: Trail stops below 50% lower band in longs; exit if momentum drifts negative or signal turns neutral. Use wider bands (75/95%) for conservative holds in volatile regimes.
- Multi-asset/Multi-TF: Defaults work across stocks, forex, crypto on 5m-1D; scale steps by TF (e.g., 10+ on daily). Layer with volume or structure tools—avoid over-reliance on isolated crosses.
Behavior, Constraints & Performance
Closed-bar logic ensures stable historical plots, but realtime updates via security lookahead may shift forecasts until bar confirmation, introducing minor repaint on the last bar. No explicit HTF calls beyond bar index fetch, minimizing gaps but watch for low-liquidity assets. Resources include a 2000-bar lookback for residuals and up to 500 labels, with no loops—efficient for most charts. Known limits: Early bars show wide bands due to sparse residuals; assumes stationary errors, so gaps or regime shifts widen inaccuracies.
Sensible Defaults & Quick Tuning
Start with defaults for balanced smoothing on 15m-4H charts. For choppy conditions (too many crosses), lower β to 0.05 and raise residual window to 600 for stability. In trending markets (sluggish signals), increase α/β to 0.4/0.2 and shorten steps to 2. If bands overexpand, boost φ toward 0.95 to preserve trend carry. Tune colors for theme fit without altering logic.
What this indicator is—and isn’t
This is a visualization and signal layer for damped forecasts and momentum, complementing price action analysis. It isn’t a standalone system—pair with risk rules and broader context. Not predictive beyond the horizon; use for confirmation, not blind entries.
Disclaimer
The content provided, including all code and materials, is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as, and should not be interpreted as, financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or an offer of any financial product or service. All strategies, tools, and examples discussed are provided for illustrative purposes to demonstrate coding techniques and the functionality of Pine Script within a trading context.
Any results from strategies or tools provided are hypothetical, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve high risk, including the potential loss of principal, and may not be suitable for all individuals. Before making any trading decisions, please consult with a qualified financial professional to understand the risks involved.
By using this script, you acknowledge and agree that any trading decisions are made solely at your discretion and risk.
Do not use this indicator on Heikin-Ashi, Renko, Kagi, Point-and-Figure, or Range charts, as these chart types can produce unrealistic results for signal markers and alerts.
Best regards and happy trading
Chervolino
Ehlers Ultrasmooth Filter (USF)# USF: Ultrasmooth Filter
## Overview and Purpose
The Ultrasmooth Filter (USF) is an advanced signal processing tool that represents the pinnacle of noise reduction technology for financial time series. Developed by John Ehlers, this filter implements a complex algorithm that provides exceptional smoothing capabilities while minimizing the lag typically associated with heavy filtering. USF builds upon the Super Smooth Filter (SSF) with enhanced noise suppression characteristics, making it particularly valuable for identifying clear trends in extremely noisy market conditions where even traditional smoothing techniques struggle to produce clean signals.
## Core Concepts
* **Maximum noise suppression:** Provides the highest level of noise reduction among Ehlers' filter designs
* **Optimized coefficient structure:** Uses carefully designed mathematical relationships to achieve superior filtering performance
* **Market application:** Particularly effective for long-term trend identification and minimizing false signals in highly volatile market conditions
The core innovation of USF is its second-order filter structure with optimized coefficients that create an exceptionally smooth frequency response. By careful mathematical design, USF achieves near-optimal noise suppression characteristics while minimizing the lag and waveform distortion that typically accompany such heavy filtering. This makes it especially valuable for identifying major market trends amid significant short-term volatility.
## Common Settings and Parameters
| Parameter | Default | Function | When to Adjust |
|-----------|---------|----------|---------------|
| Length | 20 | Controls the cutoff period | Increase for smoother signals, decrease for more responsiveness |
| Source | close | Price data used for calculation | Consider using hlc3 for a more balanced price representation |
**Pro Tip:** USF is ideal for defining major market trends - try using it with a length of 40-60 on daily charts to identify dominant market direction and ignoring shorter-term noise completely.
## Calculation and Mathematical Foundation
**Simplified explanation:**
The Ultrasmooth Filter creates an extremely clean price representation by combining current and past price data with previous filter outputs using precisely calculated mathematical relationships. This creates a highly effective "averaging" process that removes virtually all market noise while still maintaining the essential trend information.
**Technical formula:**
USF = (1-c1)X + (2c1-c2)X₁ - (c1+c3)X₂ + c2×USF₁ + c3×USF₂
Where coefficients are calculated as:
- a1 = exp(-1.414π/length)
- b1 = 2a1 × cos(1.414 × 180/length)
- c1 = (1 + c2 - c3)/4
- c2 = b1
- c3 = -a1²
> 🔍 **Technical Note:** The filter combines both feed-forward (X terms) and feedback (USF terms) components in a second-order structure, creating a response with exceptional roll-off characteristics and minimal passband ripple.
## Interpretation Details
The Ultrasmooth Filter can be used in various trading strategies:
* **Major trend identification:** The direction of USF indicates the dominant market trend with minimal noise interference
* **Signal generation:** Crossovers between price and USF generate high-reliability trade signals with minimal false positives
* **Support/resistance levels:** USF can act as strong dynamic support during uptrends and resistance during downtrends
* **Market regime identification:** The slope of USF helps identify whether markets are in trending or consolidation phases
* **Multiple timeframe analysis:** Using USF across different chart timeframes creates a cohesive picture of nested trend structures
## Limitations and Considerations
* **Significant lag:** The extreme smoothing comes with increased lag compared to lighter filters
* **Initialization period:** Requires more bars than simpler filters to stabilize at the start of data
* **Less suitable for short-term trading:** Generally too slow-responding for short-term strategies
* **Parameter sensitivity:** Performance depends on appropriate length selection for the timeframe
* **Complementary tools:** Best used alongside faster-responding indicators for timing signals
## References
* Ehlers, J.F. "Cycle Analytics for Traders," Wiley, 2013
* Ehlers, J.F. "Rocket Science for Traders," Wiley, 2001
Ehlers Even Better Sinewave (EBSW)# EBSW: Ehlers Even Better Sinewave
## Overview and Purpose
The Ehlers Even Better Sinewave (EBSW) indicator, developed by John Ehlers, is an advanced cycle analysis tool. This implementation is based on a common interpretation that uses a cascade of filters: first, a High-Pass Filter (HPF) to detrend price data, followed by a Super Smoother Filter (SSF) to isolate the dominant cycle. The resulting filtered wave is then normalized using an Automatic Gain Control (AGC) mechanism, producing a bounded oscillator that fluctuates between approximately +1 and -1. It aims to provide a clear and responsive measure of market cycles.
## Core Concepts
* **Detrending (High-Pass Filter):** A 1-pole High-Pass Filter removes the longer-term trend component from the price data, allowing the indicator to focus on cyclical movements.
* **Cycle Smoothing (Super Smoother Filter):** Ehlers' Super Smoother Filter is applied to the detrended data to further refine the cycle component, offering effective smoothing with relatively low lag.
* **Wave Generation:** The output of the SSF is averaged over a short period (typically 3 bars) to create the primary "wave".
* **Automatic Gain Control (AGC):** The wave's amplitude is normalized by dividing it by the square root of its recent power (average of squared values). This keeps the oscillator bounded and responsive to changes in volatility.
* **Normalized Oscillator:** The final output is a single sinewave-like oscillator.
## Common Settings and Parameters
| Parameter | Default | Function | When to Adjust |
| ----------- | ------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Source | close | Price data used for calculation. | Typically `close`, but `hlc3` or `ohlc4` can be used for a more comprehensive price representation. |
| HP Length | 40 | Lookback period for the 1-pole High-Pass Filter used for detrending. | Shorter periods make the filter more responsive to shorter cycles; longer periods focus on longer-term cycles. Adjust based on observed cycle characteristics. |
| SSF Length | 10 | Lookback period for the Super Smoother Filter used for smoothing the detrended cycle component. | Shorter periods result in a more responsive (but potentially noisier) wave; longer periods provide more smoothing. |
**Pro Tip:** The `HP Length` and `SSF Length` parameters should be tuned based on the typical cycle lengths observed in the market and the desired responsiveness of the indicator.
## Calculation and Mathematical Foundation
**Simplified explanation:**
1. Remove the trend from the price data using a 1-pole High-Pass Filter.
2. Smooth the detrended data using a Super Smoother Filter to get a clean cycle component.
3. Average the output of the Super Smoother Filter over the last 3 bars to create a "Wave".
4. Calculate the average "Power" of the Super Smoother Filter output over the last 3 bars.
5. Normalize the "Wave" by dividing it by the square root of the "Power" to get the final EBSW value.
**Technical formula (conceptual):**
1. **High-Pass Filter (HPF - 1-pole):**
`angle_hp = 2 * PI / hpLength`
`alpha1_hp = (1 - sin(angle_hp)) / cos(angle_hp)`
`HP = (0.5 * (1 + alpha1_hp) * (src - src )) + alpha1_hp * HP `
2. **Super Smoother Filter (SSF):**
`angle_ssf = sqrt(2) * PI / ssfLength`
`alpha2_ssf = exp(-angle_ssf)`
`beta_ssf = 2 * alpha2_ssf * cos(angle_ssf)`
`c2 = beta_ssf`
`c3 = -alpha2_ssf^2`
`c1 = 1 - c2 - c3`
`Filt = c1 * (HP + HP )/2 + c2*Filt + c3*Filt `
3. **Wave Generation:**
`WaveVal = (Filt + Filt + Filt ) / 3`
4. **Power & Automatic Gain Control (AGC):**
`Pwr = (Filt^2 + Filt ^2 + Filt ^2) / 3`
`EBSW_SineWave = WaveVal / sqrt(Pwr)` (with check for Pwr == 0)
> 🔍 **Technical Note:** The combination of HPF and SSF creates a form of band-pass filter. The AGC mechanism ensures the output remains scaled, typically between -1 and +1, making it behave like a normalized oscillator.
## Interpretation Details
* **Cycle Identification:** The EBSW wave shows the current phase and strength of the dominant market cycle as filtered by the indicator. Peaks suggest cycle tops, and troughs suggest cycle bottoms.
* **Trend Reversals/Momentum Shifts:** When the EBSW wave crosses the zero line, it can indicate a potential shift in the short-term cyclical momentum.
* Crossing up through zero: Potential start of a bullish cyclical phase.
* Crossing down through zero: Potential start of a bearish cyclical phase.
* **Overbought/Oversold Levels:** While normalized, traders often establish subjective or statistically derived overbought/oversold levels (e.g., +0.85 and -0.85, or other values like +0.7, +0.9).
* Reaching above the overbought level and turning down may signal a potential cyclical peak.
* Falling below the oversold level and turning up may signal a potential cyclical trough.
## Limitations and Considerations
* **Parameter Sensitivity:** The indicator's performance depends on tuning `hpLength` and `ssfLength` to prevailing market conditions.
* **Non-Stationary Markets:** In strongly trending markets with weak cyclical components, or in very choppy non-cyclical conditions, the EBSW may produce less reliable signals.
* **Lag:** All filtering introduces some lag. The Super Smoother Filter is designed to minimize this for its degree of smoothing, but lag is still present.
* **Whipsaws:** Rapid oscillations around the zero line can occur in volatile or directionless markets.
* **Requires Confirmation:** Signals from EBSW are often best confirmed with other forms of technical analysis (e.g., price action, volume, other non-correlated indicators).
## References
* Ehlers, J. F. (2002). *Rocket Science for Traders: Digital Signal Processing Applications*. John Wiley & Sons.
* Ehlers, J. F. (2013). *Cycle Analytics for Traders: Advanced Technical Trading Concepts*. John Wiley & Sons.
Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram (EACP)# EACP: Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram
## Overview and Purpose
Developed by John F. Ehlers (Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, Sep 2016), the Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram (EACP) estimates the dominant market cycle by projecting normalized autocorrelation coefficients onto Fourier basis functions. The indicator blends a roofing filter (high-pass + Super Smoother) with a compact periodogram, yielding low-latency dominant cycle detection suitable for adaptive trading systems. Compared with Hilbert-based methods, the autocorrelation approach resists aliasing and maintains stability in noisy price data.
EACP answers a central question in cycle analysis: “What period currently dominates the market?” It prioritizes spectral power concentration, enabling downstream tools (adaptive moving averages, oscillators) to adjust responsively without the lag present in sliding-window techniques.
## Core Concepts
* **Roofing Filter:** High-pass plus Super Smoother combination removes low-frequency drift while limiting aliasing.
* **Pearson Autocorrelation:** Computes normalized lag correlation to remove amplitude bias.
* **Fourier Projection:** Sums cosine and sine terms of autocorrelation to approximate spectral energy.
* **Gain Normalization:** Automatic gain control prevents stale peaks from dominating power estimates.
* **Warmup Compensation:** Exponential correction guarantees valid output from the very first bar.
## Implementation Notes
**This is not a strict implementation of the TASC September 2016 specification.** It is a more advanced evolution combining the core 2016 concept with techniques Ehlers introduced later. The fundamental Wiener-Khinchin theorem (power spectral density = Fourier transform of autocorrelation) is correctly implemented, but key implementation details differ:
### Differences from Original 2016 TASC Article
1. **Dominant Cycle Calculation:**
- **2016 TASC:** Uses peak-finding to identify the period with maximum power
- **This Implementation:** Uses Center of Gravity (COG) weighted average over bins where power ≥ 0.5
- **Rationale:** COG provides smoother transitions and reduces susceptibility to noise spikes
2. **Roofing Filter:**
- **2016 TASC:** Simple first-order high-pass filter
- **This Implementation:** Canonical 2-pole high-pass with √2 factor followed by Super Smoother bandpass
- **Formula:** `hp := (1-α/2)²·(p-2p +p ) + 2(1-α)·hp - (1-α)²·hp `
- **Rationale:** Evolved filtering provides better attenuation and phase characteristics
3. **Normalized Power Reporting:**
- **2016 TASC:** Reports peak power across all periods
- **This Implementation:** Reports power specifically at the dominant period
- **Rationale:** Provides more meaningful correlation between dominant cycle strength and normalized power
4. **Automatic Gain Control (AGC):**
- Uses decay factor `K = 10^(-0.15/diff)` where `diff = maxPeriod - minPeriod`
- Ensures K < 1 for proper exponential decay of historical peaks
- Prevents stale peaks from dominating current power estimates
### Performance Characteristics
- **Complexity:** O(N²) where N = (maxPeriod - minPeriod)
- **Implementation:** Uses `var` arrays with native PineScript historical operator ` `
- **Warmup:** Exponential compensation (§2 pattern) ensures valid output from bar 1
### Related Implementations
This refined approach aligns with:
- TradingView TASC 2025.02 implementation by blackcat1402
- Modern Ehlers cycle analysis techniques post-2016
- Evolved filtering methods from *Cycle Analytics for Traders*
The code is mathematically sound and production-ready, representing a refined version of the autocorrelation periodogram concept rather than a literal translation of the 2016 article.
## Common Settings and Parameters
| Parameter | Default | Function | When to Adjust |
|-----------|---------|----------|---------------|
| Min Period | 8 | Lower bound of candidate cycles | Increase to ignore microstructure noise; decrease for scalping. |
| Max Period | 48 | Upper bound of candidate cycles | Increase for swing analysis; decrease for intraday focus. |
| Autocorrelation Length | 3 | Averaging window for Pearson correlation | Set to 0 to match lag, or enlarge for smoother spectra. |
| Enhance Resolution | true | Cubic emphasis to highlight peaks | Disable when a flatter spectrum is desired for diagnostics. |
**Pro Tip:** Keep `(maxPeriod - minPeriod)` ≤ 64 to control $O(n^2)$ inner loops and maintain responsiveness on lower timeframes.
## Calculation and Mathematical Foundation
**Explanation:**
1. Apply roofing filter to `source` using coefficients $\alpha_1$, $a_1$, $b_1$, $c_1$, $c_2$, $c_3$.
2. For each lag $L$ compute Pearson correlation $r_L$ over window $M$ (default $L$).
3. For each period $p$, project onto Fourier basis:
$C_p=\sum_{n=2}^{N} r_n \cos\left(\frac{2\pi n}{p}\right)$ and $S_p=\sum_{n=2}^{N} r_n \sin\left(\frac{2\pi n}{p}\right)$.
4. Power $P_p=C_p^2+S_p^2$, smoothed then normalized via adaptive peak tracking.
5. Dominant cycle $D=\frac{\sum p\,\tilde P_p}{\sum \tilde P_p}$ over bins where $\tilde P_p≥0.5$, warmup-compensated.
**Technical formula:**
```
Step 1: hp_t = ((1-α₁)/2)(src_t - src_{t-1}) + α₁ hp_{t-1}
Step 2: filt_t = c₁(hp_t + hp_{t-1})/2 + c₂ filt_{t-1} + c₃ filt_{t-2}
Step 3: r_L = (M Σxy - Σx Σy) / √
Step 4: P_p = (Σ_{n=2}^{N} r_n cos(2πn/p))² + (Σ_{n=2}^{N} r_n sin(2πn/p))²
Step 5: D = Σ_{p∈Ω} p · ĤP_p / Σ_{p∈Ω} ĤP_p with warmup compensation
```
> 🔍 **Technical Note:** Warmup uses $c = 1 / (1 - (1 - \alpha)^{k})$ to scale early-cycle estimates, preventing low values during initial bars.
## Interpretation Details
- **Primary Dominant Cycle:**
- High $D$ (e.g., > 30) implies slow regime; adaptive MAs should lengthen.
- Low $D$ (e.g., < 15) signals rapid oscillations; shorten lookback windows.
- **Normalized Power:**
- Values > 0.8 indicate strong cycle confidence; consider cyclical strategies.
- Values < 0.3 warn of flat spectra; favor trend or volatility approaches.
- **Regime Shifts:**
- Rapid drop in $D$ alongside rising power often precedes volatility expansion.
- Divergence between $D$ and price swings may highlight upcoming breakouts.
## Limitations and Considerations
- **Spectral Leakage:** Limited lag range can smear peaks during abrupt volatility shifts.
- **O(n²) Segment:** Although constrained (≤ 60 loops), wide period spans increase computation.
- **Stationarity Assumption:** Autocorrelation presumes quasi-stationary cycles; regime changes reduce accuracy.
- **Latency in Noise:** Even with roofing, extremely noisy assets may require higher `avgLength`.
- **Downtrend Bias:** Negative trends may clip high-pass output; ensure preprocessing retains signal.
## References
* Ehlers, J. F. (2016). “Past Market Cycles.” *Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities*, 34(9), 52-55.
* Thinkorswim Learning Center. “Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram.”
* Fab MacCallini. “autocorrPeriodogram.R.” GitHub repository.
* QuantStrat TradeR Blog. “Autocorrelation Periodogram for Adaptive Lookbacks.”
* TradingView Script by blackcat1402. “Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram (Updated).”
Ichimoku MultiTF WillyArt v1.0.0What this indicator does
Ichimoku WillyArt turns the Ichimoku lines into angle-based momentum across multiple timeframes (W, D, 4H, 1H, 30m, 5m).
For each TF it computes the slope (angle in degrees) of:
Tenkan-sen
Kijun-sen
Senkou Span A
Senkou Span B
Angles are normalized so they’re comparable across assets and scales. You get a table with the angle per line and a quick emoji direction (↑, →, ↓), optional plots of the chosen line, and ready-to-use alerts.
Why angle?
Slope-as-degrees is an intuitive proxy for momentum/impulse:
Positive angle → line rising (bullish impulse).
Negative angle → line falling (bearish impulse).
Near zero → flat/indecisive.
Two normalization modes
ATR (default): slope / ATR. Robust across instruments; less sensitive to price level.
%Price: slope / price. More sensitive; can highlight subtle turns on low-volatility symbols.
Inputs you’ll actually care about
Timeframes: W, D, 4H, 1H, 30m, 5m (all fetched MTF, independent of chart TF).
Ichimoku lengths: Tenkan (9), Kijun (26), Span B (52) — standard defaults.
Bars for slope (ΔN): How many bars back the slope is measured. Higher = smoother, slower.
Threshold (°) for “strong”: Angle magnitude that qualifies as strong ↑/↓.
What you’ll see
Matrix/Table (top-right): For each TF, the angle (°) of Tenkan, Kijun, Span A, Span B + an emoji:
↑ above threshold, ↓ below −threshold, → in between.
Optional plots: Toggle “Plot angles” to visualize the chosen series’ angle across TFs.
Alerts included (ready to pick in “Create Alert”)
Sustained state: e.g., “Kijun 4H: strong ↑ angle” triggers while angle > threshold.
Threshold cross (one-shot): e.g., “Kijun 1H: upward threshold cross” fires on crossing.
Consensus (multi-TF): “Kijun consensus ↑ (D/4H/1H/30m/5m)” when all selected TFs align up (and the symmetric down case).
Messages are constant strings (TradingView requirement), so they compile cleanly. If you want dynamic text (current angle, threshold value, etc.), enable your own alert() calls—this script structure supports adding them.
How to use it (workflow)
Add to chart. No need to switch chart TF; the script pulls W/D/4H/1H/30m/5m internally.
Pick normalization. Start with ATR. Switch to %Price if you want more sensitivity.
Set ΔN & threshold.
Intraday momentum: try ΔN = 3–5 and threshold ≈ 4–8°.
Swing/position: ΔN = 5–9 and threshold ≈ 3–6° (with ATR).
Scan the table. Look for alignment (multiple TFs with ↑ or ↓ on Kijun/Spans).
Kijun + Span A up together → trending push.
Span B up/down → cloud baseline tilting (trend quality).
Turn on alerts that match your style: reactive cross for entries, sustained for trend follow, consensus to filter noise.
Reading tips
Kijun angle: great “trend backbone.” Strong ↑ on several TFs = higher-probability pullback buys.
Span A vs. Span B:
Span A reacts faster (momentum).
Span B is slower (structure).
When both tilt the same way, the cloud is genuinely rotating.
Mixed signals? Use higher TFs (W/D/4H) as bias, lower TFs (1H/30m/5m) for timing.
Good to know (limits & best practices)
Angles measure rate of change, not overbought/oversold. Combine with price structure and risk rules.
Extremely low volatility or illiquid symbols can produce tiny angles—%Price mode may help.
ΔN and thresholds are contextual: adapt per market (crypto vs FX vs equities).
Want me to bundle a “pro template” of alert presets (intraday / swing) and a heatmap color scale for the table? Happy to ship v2. 🚀
Strat 3-Bar (Outside Bar) AlertThis indicator automatically detects and alerts you when a Strat 3-Bar (Outside Bar) forms on any chart or timeframe.
An Outside Bar (3) occurs when both sides of the previous candle’s range are taken out — the high breaks above the prior bar’s high AND the low breaks below its low. It signals expansion in price discovery and potential reversals or continuations.
📈 How to Use:
1. Add this script to your chart.
2. Look for red “3” labels or triangles above outside bars.
3. To get alerts, click the TradingView alert icon (⏰):
• Condition → Strat 3-Bar (Outside Bar) Alert
• Option → “Outside Bar (3) Detected”
• Choose “Once per bar close.”
💡 Pro Tips:
- Use with Strat Assist for visual context.
- Combine with timeframe continuity for directional bias.
- Great on 15-min, 1H, and Daily charts.
---
👩🏽💻 Shared with love by Yolanda
Inspired by community discussions with Jalen (ChatGPT)
Let’s keep building each other up and mastering The Strat together! 💛
TheStrat, outsidebar, 3bar, priceaction, tradingstrategy, alert, reversal, continuation, stratassist, strat, technicalanalysis, pinev6, smartmoney
3 EMA Breakout + RSI Pro3in 1 will mostly tell yuo the direction of the trend and tell you to buy and sell but it is not a guarantee that you will take the trade this is only a technical analysis.
3 EMA Breakout + RSI Pro3in 1 will mostly tell yuo the direction of the trend and tell you to buy and sell but it is not a guarantee that you will take the trade this is only a technical analysis.
3 EMA Breakout + RSI Pro3in 1 will mostly tell yuo the direction of the trend and tell you to buy and sell but it is not a guarantee that you will take the trade this is only a technical analysis.
Custom Date MarkersCustom Date Markers - Pine Script Indicator
This indicator provides a powerful visual tool for technical and pattern analysis by allowing traders to mark up to 10 specific historical dates with customizable vertical lines on any chart. Each date can be assigned its own unique color, making it easy to categorize and distinguish between different types of events or market catalysts.
Primary Use Cases:
The indicator excels at identifying cyclical patterns and recurring market behavior. By marking significant dates such as earnings announcements, Federal Reserve meetings, dividend ex-dates, or seasonal events, traders can quickly visualize whether stocks consistently react in similar ways around these recurring dates. This is particularly valuable for discovering hidden patterns that might not be obvious from price action alone.
Practical Applications:
Earnings Analysis: Mark historical earnings dates to see if a stock tends to rally or sell-off before/after announcements
Macro Events: Identify how assets respond to FOMC meetings, CPI releases, or other economic data
Seasonal Patterns: Track dates that show recurring volatility or directional moves (like tax deadline periods, end-of-quarter re balancing, etc.)
Event Studies: Analyze the impact of company-specific events like product launches, FDA approvals, or leadership changes
Advanced Insights:
What makes this tool particularly interesting is its ability to reveal non-obvious correlations. For example, you might discover that a retail stock consistently experiences volume spikes 2-3 weeks before Black Friday across multiple years, or that certain tech stocks show weakness during specific conference dates. The color-coding feature allows you to layer multiple event types simultaneously—perhaps using red for bearish catalysts and green for bullish ones—creating a visual heat map of historical market reactions.
The indicator's 6-month default spacing (covering 4.5 years) is strategically designed to capture multiple business cycles while maintaining clarity on the chart. This timeframe is long enough to identify genuine patterns rather than coincidences, yet focused enough to remain relevant to current market conditions.
Pro Tip: Combine this indicator with volume analysis or other technical indicators to validate whether the patterns you observe are accompanied by meaningful market participation or if they're statistical noise.
SMC + CRT Gold Flow PRO — Fixed RGB ColorsSCRIPT FOR GOLD. I used SMC + CRT strategies. I analyze in H4 timeframe and enter in m15 time frame.
CHOCH + FVG Signals [30m Optimized]CHOCH + FVG Signals
🎯 What It Does:
This script automatically scans your chart for high-probability Smart Money Concepts (SMC) setups based on two key institutional trading principles:
Change of Character (CHOCH) – A shift in market structure signaling potential reversal
Fair Value Gap (FVG) – An imbalance zone where price moved too fast, often acting as support/resistance
When both conditions align, the script plots clear Buy (▲) and Sell (▼) signals directly on your chart — ideal for intraday trading on the 30-minute timeframe (but works on any timeframe).
✅ Key Features:
🔹 Visual Fair Value Gaps
Green shaded zones = Bullish FVGs (potential support)
Red shaded zones = Bearish FVGs (potential resistance)
Toggle on/off in settings
🔹 Smart CHOCH Detection
Detects breaks of recent swing highs/lows with proper context
Avoids false signals by confirming prior price structure
🔹 Clear Trade Signals
Green ▲ below bar = Buy signal (Bullish CHOCH + FVG confluence)
Red ▼ above bar = Sell signal (Bearish CHOCH + FVG confluence)
🔹 Customizable Filters
Option to require FVG for a signal (recommended for higher accuracy)
Adjust sensitivity via swing detection settings (default optimized for 30m)
🔹 Alert-Ready
Built-in alert conditions for instant notifications on TradingView mobile/desktop
⚙️ How to Use:
Apply to a 30-minute chart (e.g., EURUSD, Gold, NAS100, BTC)
Wait for at least 50–100 bars to load (so swing points appear)
Look for:
A green triangle (▲) → consider long entry near FVG support
A red triangle (▼) → consider short entry near FVG resistance
Confirm with price action: Wait for a strong candle close or rejection at the FVG zone
Use stop-loss below/above the FVG and target recent liquidity pools
💡 Pro Tip: Best used during high-volume sessions (e.g., London Open 7–10 AM UTC, NY Open 12:30–3:30 PM UTC).
🛠️ Settings (Inputs):
Show Fair Value Gaps
✅ Enabled
Visualize FVG zones
Max FVG History
100 bars
Prevent chart clutter
Require FVG for Signal?
✅ Enabled
Higher-quality setups (disable to test CHOCH-only)
⚠️ Important Notes:
This is a signal generator, not financial advice. Always manage risk.
Works best in trending or breaking markets — avoid during low-volatility ranges.
FVGs may get filled (tested) before price continues — patience improves results.
Backtest on historical data before live trading.
📣 Ideal For:
Retail traders learning Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
Price action traders seeking institutional-level confluence
Intraday scalpers & swing traders on 30m–1H timeframes
Fair Value Lead-Lag Model [BackQuant]Fair Value Lead-Lag Model
A cross-asset model that estimates where price "should" be relative to a chosen reference series, then tracks the deviation as a normalized oscillator. It helps you answer two questions: 1) is the asset rich or cheap vs its driver, and 2) is the driver leading or lagging price over the next N bars.
Concept in one paragraph
Many assets co-move with a macro or sector driver. Think BTC vs DXY, gold vs real yields, a stock vs its sector ETF. This tool builds a rolling fair value of the charted asset from a reference series and shows how far price is above or below that fair value in standard deviation units. You can shift the reference forward or backward to test who leads whom, then use the deviation and its bands to structure mean-reversion or trend-following ideas.
What the model does
Reference mapping : Pulls a reference symbol at a chosen timeframe, with an optional lead or lag in bars to test causality.
Fair value engine : Converts the reference into a synthetic fair value of the chart using one of four methods:
Ratio : price/ref with a rolling average ratio. Good when the relationship is proportional.
Spread : price minus ref with a rolling average spread. Good when the relationship is additive.
Z-Score : normalizes both series, aligns on standardized units, then re-projects to price space. Good when scale drifts.
Beta-Adjusted : rolling regression style. Uses covariance and variance to compute beta, then builds a fair value = mean(price) + beta * (ref − mean(ref)).
Deviation and bands : Computes a z-scored deviation of price vs fair value and plots sigma bands (±1, ±2, ±3) around the fair value line on the chart.
Correlation context : Shows rolling correlation so you can judge if deviations are meaningful or just noise when co-movement is weak.
Visuals :
Fair value line on price chart with sigma envelopes.
Deviation as a column oscillator and optional line.
Threshold shading beyond user-set upper and lower levels.
Summary table with reference, deviation, status, correlation, and method.
Why this is useful
Mean reversion framework : When correlation is healthy and deviation stretches beyond your sigma threshold, probability favors reversion toward fair value. This is classic pairs logic adapted to a driver and a target.
Trend confirmation : If price rides the fair value line and deviation stays modest while correlation is positive, it supports trend persistence. Pullbacks to negative deviation in an uptrend can be buyable.
Lead-lag discovery : Shift the reference forward by +N bars. If correlation improves, the reference tends to lead. Shift backward for the reverse. Use the best setting for planning early entries or hedges.
Regime detection : Large persistent deviations with falling correlation hint at regime change. The relationship you relied on may be breaking down, so reduce confidence or switch methods.
How to use it step by step
Pick a sensible reference : Choose a macro, index, currency, or sector driver that logically explains the asset’s moves. Example: gold with DXY, a semiconductor stock with SOXX.
Test lead-lag : Nudge Lead/Lag Periods to small positive values like +1 to +5 to see if the reference leads. If correlation improves, keep that offset. If correlation worsens, try a small negative value or zero.
Select a method :
Start with Beta-Adjusted when the relationship is approximately linear with drift.
Use Ratio if the assets usually move in proportional terms.
Use Spread when they trade around a level difference.
Use Z-Score when scales wander or volatility regimes shift.
Tune windows :
Rolling Window controls how quickly fair value adapts. Shorter equals faster but noisier.
Normalization Period controls how deviations are standardized. Longer equals stabler sigma sizing.
Correlation Length controls how co-movement is measured. Keep it near the fair value window.
Trade the edges :
Mean reversion idea : Wait for deviation beyond your Upper or Lower Threshold with positive correlation. Fade back toward fair value. Exit at the fair value line or the next inner sigma band.
Trend idea : In an uptrend, buy pullbacks when deviation dips negative but correlation remains healthy. In a downtrend, sell bounces when deviation spikes positive.
Read the table : Deviation shows how many sigmas you are from fair value. Status tells you overvalued or undervalued. Correlation color hints confidence. Method tells you the projection style used.
Reading the display
Fair value line on price chart: the model’s estimate of where price should trade given the reference, updated each bar.
Sigma bands around fair value: a quick sense of residual volatility. Reversions often target inner bands first.
Deviation oscillator : above zero means rich vs fair value, below zero means cheap. Color bins intensify with distance.
Correlation line (optional): scale is folded to match thresholds. Higher values increase trust in deviations.
Parameter tips
Start with Rolling Window 20 to 30, Normalization Period 100, Correlation Length 50.
Upper and Lower Threshold at ±2.0 are classic. Tighten to ±1.5 for more signals or widen to ±2.5 to focus on outliers.
When correlation drifts below about 0.3, treat deviations with caution. Consider switching method or reference.
If the fair value line whipsaws, increase Rolling Window or move to Beta-Adjusted which tends to be smoother.
Playbook examples
Pairs-style reversion : Asset is +2.3 sigma rich vs reference, correlation 0.65, trend flat. Short the deviation back toward fair value. Cover near the fair value line or +1 sigma.
Pro-trend pullback : Uptrend with correlation 0.7. Deviation dips to −1.2 sigma while price sits near the −1 sigma band. Buy the dip, target the fair value line, trail if the line is rising.
Lead-lag timing : Reference leads by +3 bars with improved correlation. Use reference swings as early cues to anticipate deviation turns on the target.
Caveats
The model assumes a stable relationship over the chosen windows. Structural breaks, policy shocks, and index rebalances can invalidate recent history.
Correlation is descriptive, not causal. A strong correlation does not guarantee future convergence.
Do not force trades when the reference has low liquidity or mismatched hours. Use a reference timeframe that captures real overlap.
Bottom line
This tool turns a loose cross-asset intuition into a quantified, visual fair value map. It gives you a consistent way to find rich or cheap conditions, time mean-reversion toward a statistically grounded target, and confirm or fade trends when the driver agrees.
Luxy Adaptive MA Cloud - Trend Strength & Signal Tracker V2Luxy Adaptive MA Cloud - Professional Trend Strength & Signal Tracker
Next-generation moving average cloud indicator combining ultra-smooth gradient visualization with intelligent momentum detection. Built for traders who demand clarity, precision, and actionable insights.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════
WHAT MAKES THIS INDICATOR SPECIAL?
═══════════════════════════════════════════════
Unlike traditional MA indicators that show static lines, Luxy Adaptive MA Cloud creates a living, breathing visualization of market momentum. Here's what sets it apart:
Exponential Gradient Technology
This isn't just a simple fill between two lines. It's a professionally engineered gradient system with 26 precision layers using exponential density distribution. The result? An organic, cloud-like appearance where the center is dramatically darker (15% transparency - where crossovers and price action occur), while edges fade gracefully (75% transparency). Think of it as a visual "heat map" of trend strength.
Dynamic Momentum Intelligence
Most MA clouds only show structure (which MA is on top). This indicator shows momentum strength in real-time through four intelligent states:
- 🟢 Bright Green = Explosive bullish momentum (both MAs rising strongly)
- 🔵 Blue = Weakening bullish (structure intact, but momentum fading)
- 🟠 Orange = Caution zone (bearish structure forming, weak momentum)
- 🔴 Deep Red = Strong bearish momentum (both MAs falling)
The cloud literally tells you when trends are accelerating or losing steam.
Conditional Performance Architecture
Every calculation is optimized for speed. Disable a feature? It stops calculating entirely—not just hidden, but not computed . The 26-layer gradient only renders when enabled. Toggle signals off? Those crossover checks don't run. This makes it one of the most efficient cloud indicators available, even with its advanced visual system.
Zero Repaint Guarantee
All signals and momentum states are based on confirmed bar data only . What you see in historical data is exactly what you would have seen trading live. No lookahead bias. No repainting tricks. No signals that "magically" appear perfect in hindsight. If a signal shows in history, it would have triggered in real-time at that exact moment.
Educational by Design
Every single input includes comprehensive tooltips with:
- Clear explanations of what each parameter does
- Practical examples of when to use different settings
- Recommended configurations for scalping, day trading, and swing trading
- Real-world trading impact ("This affects entry timing" vs "This is visual only")
You're not just getting an indicator—you're learning how to use it effectively .
═══════════════════════════════════════════════
THE GRADIENT CLOUD - TECHNICAL DETAILS
═══════════════════════════════════════════════
Architecture:
26 precision layers for silk-smooth transitions
Exponential density curve - layers packed tightly near center (where crossovers happen), spread wider at edges
75%-15% transparency range - center is highly opaque (15%), edges fade gracefully (75%)
V-Gradient design - emphasizes the action zone between Fast and Medium MAs
The Four Momentum States:
🟢 GREEN - Strong Bullish
Fast MA above Medium MA
Both MAs rising with momentum > 0.02%
Action: Enter/hold LONG positions, strong uptrend confirmed
🔵 BLUE - Weak Bullish
Fast MA above Medium MA
Weak or flat momentum
Action: Caution - bullish structure but losing strength, consider trailing stops
🟠 ORANGE - Weak Bearish
Medium MA above Fast MA
Weak or flat momentum
Action: Warning - bearish structure developing, consider exits
🔴 RED - Strong Bearish
Medium MA above Fast MA
Both MAs falling with momentum < -0.02%
Action: Enter/hold SHORT positions, strong downtrend confirmed
Smooth Transitions: The momentum score is smoothed using an 8-bar EMA to eliminate noise and prevent whipsaws. You see the true trend , not every minor fluctuation.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════
FLEXIBLE MOVING AVERAGE SYSTEM
═══════════════════════════════════════════════
Three Customizable MAs:
Fast MA (default: EMA 10) - Reacts quickly to price changes, defines short-term momentum
Medium MA (default: EMA 20) - Balances responsiveness with stability, core trend reference
Slow MA (default: SMA 200, optional) - Long-term trend filter, major support/resistance
Six MA Types Available:
EMA - Exponential; faster response, ideal for momentum and day trading
SMA - Simple; smooth and stable, best for swing trading and trend following
WMA - Weighted; middle ground between EMA and SMA
VWMA - Volume-weighted; reflects market participation, useful for liquid markets
RMA - Wilder's smoothing; used in RSI/ADX, excellent for trend filters
HMA - Hull; extremely responsive with minimal lag, aggressive option
Recommended Settings by Trading Style:
Scalping (1m-5m):
Fast: EMA(5-8)
Medium: EMA(10-15)
Slow: Not needed or EMA(50)
Day Trading (5m-1h):
Fast: EMA(10-12)
Medium: EMA(20-21)
Slow: SMA(200) for bias
Swing Trading (4h-1D):
Fast: EMA(10-20)
Medium: EMA(34-50)
Slow: SMA(200)
Pro Tip: Start with Fast < Medium < Slow lengths. The gradient works best when there's clear separation between Fast and Medium MAs.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════
CROSSOVER SIGNALS - CLEAN & RELIABLE
═══════════════════════════════════════════════
Golden Cross ⬆ LONG Signal
Fast MA crosses above Medium MA
Classic bullish reversal or trend continuation signal
Most reliable when accompanied by GREEN cloud (strong momentum)
Death Cross ⬇ SHORT Signal
Fast MA crosses below Medium MA
Classic bearish reversal or trend continuation signal
Most reliable when accompanied by RED cloud (strong momentum)
Signal Intelligence:
Anti-spam filter - Minimum 5 bars between signals prevents noise
Clean labels - Placed precisely at crossover points
Alert-ready - Built-in ALERTS for automated trading systems
No repainting - Signals based on confirmed bars only
Signal Quality Assessment:
High-Quality Entry:
Golden Cross + GREEN cloud + Price above both MAs
= Strong bullish setup ✓
Low-Quality Entry (skip or wait):
Golden Cross + ORANGE cloud + Choppy price action
= Weak bullish setup, likely whipsaw ✗
═══════════════════════════════════════════════
REAL-TIME INFO PANEL
═══════════════════════════════════════════════
An at-a-glance dashboard showing:
Trend Strength Indicator:
Visual display of current momentum state
Color-coded header matching cloud color
Instant recognition of market bias
MA Distance Table:
Shows percentage distance of price from each enabled MA:
Green rows : Price ABOVE MA (bullish)
Red rows : Price BELOW MA (bearish)
Gray rows : Price AT MA (rare, decision point)
Distance Interpretation:
+2% to +5%: Healthy uptrend
+5% to +10%: Getting extended, caution
+10%+: Overextended, expect pullback
-2% to -5%: Testing support
-5% to -10%: Oversold zone
-10%+: Deep correction or downtrend
Customization:
4 corner positions
5 font sizes (Tiny to Huge)
Toggle visibility on/off
═══════════════════════════════════════════════
HOW TO USE - PRACTICAL TRADING GUIDE
═══════════════════════════════════════════════
STRATEGY 1: Trend Following
Identify trend : Wait for GREEN (bullish) or RED (bearish) cloud
Enter on signal : Golden Cross in GREEN cloud = LONG, Death Cross in RED cloud = SHORT
Hold position : While cloud maintains color
Exit signals :
• Cloud turns ORANGE/BLUE = momentum weakening, tighten stops
• Opposite crossover = close position
• Cloud turns opposite color = full reversal
STRATEGY 2: Pullback Entries
Confirm trend : GREEN cloud established (bullish bias)
Wait for pullback : Price touches or crosses below Fast MA
Enter when : Price rebounds back above Fast MA with cloud still GREEN
Stop loss : Below Medium MA or recent swing low
Target : Previous high or when cloud weakens
STRATEGY 3: Momentum Confirmation
Your setup triggers : (e.g., chart pattern, support/resistance)
Check cloud color :
• GREEN = proceed with LONG
• RED = proceed with SHORT
• BLUE/ORANGE = skip or reduce size
Use gradient as confluence : Not as primary signal, but as momentum filter
Risk Management Tips:
Never enter against the cloud color (don't LONG in RED cloud)
Reduce position size during BLUE/ORANGE (transition periods)
Place stops beyond Medium MA for swing trades
Use Slow MA (200) as final trend filter - don't SHORT above it in uptrends
═══════════════════════════════════════════════
PERFORMANCE & OPTIMIZATION
═══════════════════════════════════════════════
Tested On:
Crypto: BTC, ETH, major altcoins
Stocks: SPY, AAPL, TSLA, QQQ
Forex: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY
Indices: S&P 500, NASDAQ, DJI
═══════════════════════════════════════════════
TRANSPARENCY & RELIABILITY
═══════════════════════════════════════════════
Educational Focus:
Detailed tooltips on every input
Clear documentation of methodology
Practical examples in descriptions
Teaches you why , not just what
Open Logic:
Momentum calculation: (Fast slope + Medium slope) / 2
Smoothing: 8-bar EMA to reduce noise
Thresholds: ±0.02% for strong momentum classification
Everything is transparent and explainable
═══════════════════════════════════════════════
COMPLETE FEATURE LIST
═══════════════════════════════════════════════
Visual Components:
26-layer exponential gradient cloud
3 customizable moving average lines
Golden Cross / Death Cross labels
Real-time info panel with trend strength
MA distance table
Calculation Features:
6 MA types (EMA, SMA, WMA, VWMA, RMA, HMA)
Momentum-based cloud coloring
Smoothed trend strength scoring
Conditional performance optimization
Customization Options:
All MA lengths adjustable
All colors customizable (when gradient disabled)
Panel position (4 corners)
Font sizes (5 options)
Toggle any feature on/off
Signal Features:
Anti-spam filter (configurable gap)
Clean, non-overlapping labels
Built-in alert conditions
No repainting guarantee
═══════════════════════════════════════════════
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS
═══════════════════════════════════════════════
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only
Not financial advice - always do your own research
Past performance does not guarantee future results
Use proper risk management - never risk more than you can afford to lose
Test on paper/demo accounts before using with real money
Combine with other analysis methods - no single indicator is perfect
Works best in trending markets; less effective in choppy/sideways conditions
Signals may perform differently in different timeframes and market conditions
The indicator uses historical data for MA calculations - allow sufficient lookback period
═══════════════════════════════════════════════
CREDITS & TECHNICAL INFO
═══════════════════════════════════════════════
Version: 2.0
Release: October 2025
Special Thanks:
TradingView community for feedback and testing
Pine Script documentation for technical reference
═══════════════════════════════════════════════
SUPPORT & UPDATES
═══════════════════════════════════════════════
Found a bug? Comment below with:
Ticker symbol
Timeframe
Screenshot if possible
Steps to reproduce
Feature requests? I'm always looking to improve! Share your ideas in the comments.
Questions? Check the tooltips first (hover over any input) - most answers are there. If still stuck, ask in comments.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════
Happy Trading!
Remember: The best indicator is the one you understand and use consistently. Take time to learn how the cloud behaves in different market conditions. Practice on paper before going live. Trade smart, manage risk, and may the trends be with you! 🚀
Smart Money Concepts Pro – OB, FVG, Liquidity + Trade SetupsThis script is a complete Smart Money Concepts (SMC) toolkit designed for traders who want clean and actionable charts without clutter.
It combines the most important institutional concepts into one indicator:
Order Blocks (OB): auto-detection of bullish and bearish order blocks with mitigation tracking, merging and TTL (time-to-live).
Fair Value Gaps (FVG): automatic gap recognition with size filters, mitigation tracking and lifetime control.
Liquidity Pools (EQH/EQL): equal highs and equal lows marked with tolerance (ATR-based or fixed).
Break of Structure (BOS): up/down structure shifts plotted directly on the chart.
Multi-Timeframe (HTF): option to use higher timeframe data (e.g. H4, Daily) for stronger zones.
Trend Filter: show zones only in the direction of market structure.
Trade Setups: automatic signals for OB Retest + Trend setups, with entry, stop-loss and take-profit levels (custom R-R).
Flexible Zone Extension: choose between extending zones to the live bar or fixed box width for a cleaner look when scrolling.
Features
Fully customizable (pivot length, ATR filters, box width, TTL, zone colors)
Separate presets for Scalping, Intraday, Swing trading styles
Visual trade planning with entry/SL/TP lines and optional labels
Works across all markets (crypto, forex, indices, stocks)
How to use
Bias: identify overall direction (BOS + HTF zones).
Wait: for price to return to an unmitigated OB or FVG.
Entry: take the setup signal (OB retest + trend filter).
Risk: stop-loss at opposite OB boundary.
Target: TP based on chosen R-R multiple (default 2R).
⚡ Whether you scalp short-term moves or swing trade HTF zones, this indicator gives you a clear institutional edge in spotting supply/demand imbalances and high-probability setups.
ZS Game Changer Pump & Dump DetectorZS GAME CHANGER PUMP AND DUMP DETECTOR - TOP 2 MOMENTUM TRACKER
Created by Zakaria Safri
An intelligent indicator specifically designed to identify and highlight the two most significant pump and dump candles within your selected lookback period. Perfect for traders who want to focus on the game-changing moves that truly matter in volatile markets like cryptocurrency, stocks, and forex.
CORE FEATURES
AUTOMATIC GAME CHANGER DETECTION
The indicator continuously scans your specified lookback period and automatically identifies the top 2 strongest pump candles and top 2 strongest dump candles. These game-changing candles are highlighted with distinctive gold labels and horizontal reference lines, making them instantly visible on your chart. Unlike other indicators that show every small move, this focuses exclusively on the market-moving moments that define trends and create opportunities.
INTELLIGENT PUMP AND DUMP CLASSIFICATION
Uses advanced percentage-based calculations to classify candles as pumps when price surges significantly upward and dumps when price plunges sharply downward. The detection system accounts for candle body size, wick proportions, and volume confirmation to ensure only legitimate momentum moves trigger signals. Customizable thresholds allow adaptation to any market volatility profile from calm stocks to wild altcoins.
ADVANCED WICK EXCLUSION FILTER
Eliminates false signals caused by candles with large wicks and small bodies. This filter focuses analysis exclusively on candles with substantial body sizes that indicate genuine directional conviction rather than temporary spikes followed by rejection. The body to candle ratio is fully adjustable to match your preferred signal quality standards.
VOLUME CONFIRMATION SYSTEM
Optional volume filter ensures detected pumps and dumps are backed by real market participation. The indicator compares current volume against a moving average and only triggers signals when volume exceeds your specified multiplier threshold. This eliminates low-volume noise and focuses on moves supported by institutional or crowd participation.
RALLY SEQUENCE DETECTION
Identifies and highlights consecutive sequences of pump or dump candles with colored background overlays. Green background indicates sustained buying pressure across multiple candles while red background shows sustained selling pressure. The rally detection system includes an optional one-miss allowance that prevents the sequence from breaking due to a single neutral candle.
HORIZONTAL REFERENCE LINES
Draws dashed lines from each game changer candle extending to the current bar, providing constant visual reference to the most significant support and resistance levels created by extreme momentum. The top game changer gets a thick dashed line while the second gets a dotted line for easy differentiation. Labels on the right side display the exact percentage move.
COMPREHENSIVE STATISTICS DASHBOARD
Real-time information panel showing current market status as pumping, dumping, or neutral along with the current candle percentage change. Displays the exact percentage values for top pump number 1, top pump number 2, top dump number 1, and top dump number 2. Shows running totals of all pumps and dumps detected since chart load. Tracks consecutive candle counts during active rally sequences.
TESTING AND VERIFICATION MODE
Built-in debug mode displays percentage change directly on each qualifying pump and dump candle, allowing instant verification that calculations are accurate. Shows which filters are currently active with a simple code in the dashboard. Helps traders understand exactly why certain candles qualified as game changers.
HOW THE GAME CHANGER DETECTION WORKS
SCANNING ALGORITHM
Every bar close, the indicator scans backward through your specified lookback period examining every candle's percentage change from its previous close. For bullish moves, it identifies the two candles with the largest positive percentage change that meet your threshold requirements. For bearish moves, it identifies the two candles with the largest negative percentage change meeting threshold requirements.
RANKING SYSTEM
Candles are ranked purely by their percentage move magnitude. The number 1 game changer is always the single strongest move in the lookback period. The number 2 game changer is the second strongest move. Rankings update dynamically as new candles form and old candles exit the lookback window.
VISUAL IDENTIFICATION
Game changer number 1 for both pumps and dumps receives a large gold label reading GAME CHANGER NUMBER 1 with zero transparency for maximum visibility. Game changer number 2 receives a slightly smaller gold label with partial transparency. The candle bars themselves are colored in gold instead of the standard green or red. Horizontal lines extend from the game changer price level to current bar.
FILTER APPLICATION
Only candles that pass your configured filters qualify for game changer consideration. If wick exclusion is enabled, candles with large wicks and small bodies are ignored. If volume confirmation is enabled, only candles with above-average volume qualify. This ensures game changers represent legitimate market moves rather than aberrations.
PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
FOR CRYPTOCURRENCY TRADERS
Crypto markets experience extreme volatility with occasional massive pump and dump candles that define entire trends. This indicator instantly identifies which candles represent true market structure shifts versus normal noise. Use the game changer levels as key support and resistance for entries, exits, and stop placement. The top pump often marks the local high to watch for breakouts while the top dump marks the local low for reversal trades.
FOR DAY TRADERS
Intraday charts contain hundreds of candles but only a few truly matter for the session outcome. Game changer detection filters out 98 percent of candles to show you the 2 percent that drove the actual price movement. Enter trades on the side of the strongest recent game changer. Use game changer levels as magnet prices where algorithmic trading often returns.
FOR SWING TRADERS
On daily and four-hour timeframes, game changers represent major institutional activity or news-driven moves. The top dump often marks capitulation selling that creates reversal opportunities. The top pump often marks FOMO buying that creates resistance levels. Swing traders can build positions knowing these levels will be defended or tested multiple times.
FOR VOLATILITY ANALYSIS
Understanding which candles created the most volatility helps assess market risk. Multiple game changers clustered together indicate unstable choppy conditions. Game changers separated by many neutral candles indicate trending stable conditions. Use this context to adjust position sizing and stop distances appropriately.
FOR SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE TRADING
Game changer candles create the strongest support and resistance levels because they represent prices where massive volume transacted in short time periods. These levels have higher probability of holding on retest compared to arbitrary moving averages or pivot points. Trade bounces off game changer levels or breakouts through them.
RECOMMENDED SETTINGS BY MARKET
CRYPTOCURRENCY 15-MINUTE TO 1-HOUR CHARTS
Candle Size Threshold: 2.0 percent
Body to Candle Ratio: 0.5
Volume Multiplier: 1.5 times average
Game Changer Lookback: 100 bars
Extreme Threshold: 3.5 percent
Enable Wick Filter: Yes
Enable Volume Confirmation: Yes
Minimum Rally Candles: 3
STOCKS DAILY CHARTS
Candle Size Threshold: 1.0 percent
Body to Candle Ratio: 0.6
Volume Multiplier: 2.0 times average
Game Changer Lookback: 50 bars
Extreme Threshold: 2.5 percent
Enable Wick Filter: Yes
Enable Volume Confirmation: Yes
Minimum Rally Candles: 2
FOREX 1-HOUR TO 4-HOUR CHARTS
Candle Size Threshold: 0.5 percent
Body to Candle Ratio: 0.5
Volume Multiplier: Not applicable
Game Changer Lookback: 80 bars
Extreme Threshold: 1.0 percent
Enable Wick Filter: Yes
Enable Volume Confirmation: No
Minimum Rally Candles: 3
SCALPING 1-MINUTE TO 5-MINUTE CHARTS
Candle Size Threshold: 0.8 percent
Body to Candle Ratio: 0.4
Volume Multiplier: 1.2 times average
Game Changer Lookback: 50 bars
Extreme Threshold: 1.5 percent
Enable Wick Filter: No
Enable Volume Confirmation: Yes
Minimum Rally Candles: 2
WHAT IS INCLUDED
Automatic identification of top 2 pump candles
Automatic identification of top 2 dump candles
Gold colored game changer labels with size differentiation
Gold colored candle bars for game changers
Horizontal reference lines from game changers to current price
Regular pump and dump detection with green and red candles
Rally sequence detection with background highlighting
Extreme move detection and labeling system
Real-time statistics dashboard with all key metrics
Percentage change debug mode for verification
Volume confirmation filter with adjustable multiplier
Wick exclusion filter with adjustable body ratio
Customizable lookback period from 20 to 500 bars
Consecutive candle counter for rally tracking
Alert system for game changers, pumps, dumps, and rallies
Works on all timeframes from 1 minute to monthly
Compatible with stocks, forex, cryptocurrency, and futures
UNDERSTANDING GAME CHANGERS
WHAT MAKES A CANDLE A GAME CHANGER
A game changer is not just a large move but the largest move within context. In a volatile crypto market, a 5 percent pump might not rank in the top 2. In a stable stock, a 2 percent pump could be the number 1 game changer. The indicator adapts to your specific instrument and timeframe to find what truly matters in that context.
WHY FOCUS ON TOP 2 ONLY
Markets are driven by a small number of significant moves rather than the average of all moves. By focusing exclusively on the top 2 in each direction, traders can ignore noise and concentrate on the price levels that actually matter for support, resistance, and momentum. This creates clarity in decision making.
GAME CHANGERS AS MARKET STRUCTURE
The top pump often marks the recent high that bulls must break to continue uptrend. The top dump often marks the recent low that bears must break to continue downtrend. These become the key levels around which all other price action rotates. Understanding this structure is essential for profitable trading.
GAME CHANGERS AS SENTIMENT INDICATORS
Consecutive pump game changers signal strong bullish sentiment and FOMO conditions. Consecutive dump game changers signal fear and capitulation. Alternating pump and dump game changers signal indecision and range conditions. Read the pattern of game changers to gauge market psychology.
VERIFICATION AND TESTING
HOW TO VERIFY ACCURACY
Enable Show Debug Info on Chart in the Testing and Debug settings group. This displays the percentage change calculation directly on every qualifying pump and dump candle. Manually verify by calculating open minus close divided by close multiplied by 100. The debug percentage should match your manual calculation exactly.
HOW TO TEST FILTERS
Toggle wick exclusion filter on and off while watching how many candles qualify. With filter on, candles with long wicks and small bodies should disappear. Toggle volume confirmation on and off to see how low-volume candles get excluded. Adjust the thresholds and watch the real-time impact on signal count.
HOW TO VERIFY GAME CHANGERS
Look at your chart and visually identify which candle had the biggest green body in the lookback period. The game changer number 1 pump label should be on that exact candle. Repeat for the biggest red candle to verify game changer number 1 dump. The rankings should match your visual assessment.
LOOKBACK PERIOD EFFECTS
Decrease the lookback period to 20 bars and watch game changers update to only recent moves. Increase to 500 bars and watch game changers potentially change to older historic moves. The optimal lookback balances recency with significance. Too short misses important levels, too long includes irrelevant history.
DASHBOARD INFORMATION GUIDE
STATUS ROW
Shows PUMPING when current candle qualifies as a pump, DUMPING when current candle qualifies as a dump, or NEUTRAL when current candle does not meet threshold requirements. This updates in real-time on every bar close.
CURRENT CHANGE ROW
Displays the percentage change of the current candle from its previous close. Positive percentages indicate bullish candle, negative indicate bearish candle. This number may or may not meet your threshold to qualify as pump or dump.
TOP PUMP NUMBER 1
The highest positive percentage change found in your lookback period. This candle is marked with the large gold GAME CHANGER NUMBER 1 label below it. Shows N/A if no pumps exist in the lookback period.
TOP PUMP NUMBER 2
The second highest positive percentage change found in your lookback period. Marked with smaller gold GAME CHANGER NUMBER 2 label. Shows N/A if only one or zero pumps exist.
TOP DUMP NUMBER 1
The highest negative percentage change magnitude found in your lookback period. This candle is marked with the large gold GAME CHANGER NUMBER 1 label above it. Shows N/A if no dumps exist.
TOP DUMP NUMBER 2
The second highest negative percentage change magnitude found in your lookback period. Marked with smaller gold GAME CHANGER NUMBER 2 label. Shows N/A if only one or zero dumps exist.
TOTAL PUMPS
Running count of all pump candles detected since you loaded the indicator on this chart. This number continuously increases as new qualifying pumps form. Resets when you reload the chart.
TOTAL DUMPS
Running count of all dump candles detected since chart load. Increases as new qualifying dumps form and resets on chart reload.
CONSECUTIVE
Shows the current count of consecutive pump or dump candles during an active rally. Displays 3 UP during a 3-candle pump rally or 5 DN during a 5-candle dump rally. Shows 0 when no rally is active.
ALERT SYSTEM
GAME CHANGER DETECTED ALERT
Triggers whenever the current candle becomes one of the top 2 pumps or top 2 dumps. This is the highest priority alert indicating a market-moving event just occurred. Use this alert for immediate notification of significant opportunities.
PUMP DETECTED ALERT
Triggers on every candle that qualifies as a pump according to your threshold and filter settings. This includes regular pumps and extreme pumps but excludes game changers which have their separate alert. Use for general upward momentum monitoring.
DUMP DETECTED ALERT
Triggers on every candle that qualifies as a dump according to your settings. Includes regular and extreme dumps but excludes game changers. Use for general downward momentum monitoring.
PUMP RALLY STARTED ALERT
Triggers when consecutive pump candles reach your minimum rally threshold. Indicates the beginning of a sustained upward movement sequence. Use to catch trends early.
DUMP RALLY STARTED ALERT
Triggers when consecutive dump candles reach your minimum rally threshold. Indicates the beginning of a sustained downward movement sequence. Use for trend following or reversal timing.
ALERT MESSAGE FORMAT
All alerts include the ticker symbol and current price using TradingView placeholders. Messages are descriptive and specify which type of signal triggered. Alerts work with TradingView notification system including email, SMS, webhook, and app notifications.
TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS
CALCULATION METHODOLOGY
Percentage change calculated as current close minus previous close divided by previous close multiplied by 100. Body ratio calculated as absolute value of close minus open divided by high minus low. Volume elevation calculated as current volume divided by 20-period simple moving average of volume. Game changer ranking uses absolute value comparison across entire lookback array.
PERFORMANCE CHARACTERISTICS
Lightweight calculations optimized for speed on all timeframes. No repainting of signals ensuring all triggers are final on bar close. Variables properly scoped with var keyword for memory efficiency. Maximum bars back set to 500 to prevent excessive historical loading. Updates in real-time on every bar close without lag.
COMPATIBILITY
Works on all TradingView plans including free, pro, and premium. Compatible with stocks, forex, cryptocurrency, futures, indices, and commodities. Functions correctly on all timeframes from 1 second to monthly. No external data requests ensuring fast loading. Overlay true setting places directly on price chart.
RISK DISCLAIMER
This indicator is a technical analysis tool for identifying momentum and should not be used as the sole basis for trading decisions. Game changer levels can be broken during strong trends and are not guaranteed support or resistance. Pump and dump detection does not predict future price direction. Always use proper risk management with stop losses on every trade. Combine this indicator with other forms of analysis including fundamentals, market context, and risk assessment. Practice on demo accounts before live trading. Past performance of game changer signals does not guarantee future results. Trading carries substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. The creator is not responsible for trading losses incurred while using this tool.
SUPPORT AND UPDATES
Regular updates based on user feedback and market evolution. Built following PineCoders industry standards and best practices for code quality. Clean well-documented code structure for transparency and auditability. Optimized performance across all timeframes and instruments. Active development with continuous improvements and feature additions.
WHY CHOOSE ZS GAME CHANGER PUMP AND DUMP DETECTOR
Focuses on what matters by highlighting only the top 2 moves in each direction instead of cluttering your chart with every small fluctuation. Saves time by automatically identifying the most significant candles rather than requiring manual scanning. Provides clarity through visual gold labels and reference lines that make game changers unmistakable. Adapts to any market with customizable thresholds for volatility and volume. Eliminates noise with advanced wick and volume filters ensuring signal quality. Offers verification through debug mode proving calculations are accurate and trustworthy. Includes comprehensive statistics showing exact percentages and counts. Works everywhere across all markets, timeframes, and instruments without modification.
Transform your chart analysis by focusing exclusively on the game-changing moments that define trends and create opportunities.
Version 1.1 | Created by Zakaria Safri | Pine Script Version 5 | PineCoders Compliant
PCE Inflation Monitor (Change YoY & MoM)📊 PCE Inflation Monitor - The Fed's Most Important Metric
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure and THE metric they target for their 2% inflation goal. If you want to predict Fed policy, you need to watch PCE.
🎯 KEY FEATURES:
- Dual Perspective Analysis:
- Year-over-Year (YoY): Histogram bars showing annual PCE inflation
- Month-over-Month (MoM): Line overlay showing monthly consumption price changes
- Visual Reference System:
- Dashed line at 2% (Fed's official PCE inflation target)
- Dotted line at 0.17% (equivalent monthly target)
- Color-coded bars: Red above Fed target, Green below target
- Real-Time Data Table:
- Current PCE Index value
- YoY inflation rate vs. Fed's 2% target
- MoM inflation rate with color coding
- Exact deviation from Fed target (critical for policy predictions)
- Automated Alerts:
- PCE crosses Fed's 2% target (major policy signal!)
- MoM crosses monthly target
- Stay informed of Fed-relevant inflation changes
📈 WHY PCE IS DIFFERENT (AND MORE IMPORTANT):
PCE vs. CPI differences:
- Flexible basket: PCE adjusts for substitution (beef → chicken if prices rise)
- Broader coverage: Includes healthcare paid by insurance/government
- Lower readings: Typically 0.2-0.4% below CPI
- Fed's choice: Explicitly stated as their target metric
Most importantly: When Powell speaks about "our 2% target," he means PCE, not CPI!
🔍 TRADING IMPLICATIONS:
PCE Above 2% (Red Zone):
→ Fed under pressure to maintain/raise rates
→ Hawkish policy stance likely
→ Negative for growth stocks, crypto
→ Positive for USD, bearish for gold
PCE Below 2% (Green Zone):
→ Fed has flexibility to cut rates
→ Dovish policy stance possible
→ Positive for risk assets, growth stocks
→ Negative for USD, bullish for commodities
PCE Approaching 2% from Above:
→ Fed "mission accomplished" narrative
→ Rate cut cycle becomes possible
→ Major bullish signal for equities/crypto
💡 ADVANCED STRATEGIES:
1. Fed Meeting Preparation: Check PCE before FOMC meetings for policy clues
2. Dot Plot Predictions: PCE trend determines Fed's rate forecast updates
3. Pivot Timing: When PCE MoM turns negative, Fed pivot becomes realistic
4. Press Conference Analysis: Compare Powell's comments to PCE deviation
🎯 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
- 2.0% YoY: Fed's official target - crossing this level is major news
- 2.5% YoY: "Uncomfortably high" - Fed forced to stay restrictive
- 3.0% YoY: "Crisis mode" - Fed turns very hawkish
- 1.5% YoY: "Below target" - Rate cuts become likely
🔄 COMBINE WITH:
- CPI: Public perception vs. Fed's metric (often diverge)
- Core PCE: Even more important (excludes food/energy volatility)
- Fed Funds Rate: Is Fed responding appropriately to PCE?
📊 DATA SOURCE:
Official PCE data from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), updated monthly typically in the last week of each month (after CPI/PPI releases).
🎨 CUSTOMIZATION:
Fully customizable:
- Toggle YoY/MoM displays
- Adjust Fed target if needed
- Customize colors
- Show/hide absolute PCE values
Perfect for: Fed watchers, macro traders, policy analysts, and serious investors who want to predict monetary policy changes before they happen.
⚠️ CRITICAL INSIGHT: While media focuses on CPI, the Fed focuses on PCE. Trade what the Fed trades, not what the headlines say.
🎓 Pro Tip: Fed members often mention "Core PCE" (excluding food/energy). Consider adding that indicator alongside this one for complete Fed policy analysis.
