Auto DayWeekMonth Fib Levels R2 by JustUncleLThis indicator automatically draws up to Three Sets of Fibonacci Pivot levels based on the previous Candle period's Range (High-Low). The HLC3 is used as the default Pivotal level. Only the most Recent period Candle Levels are displayed. The longer Weekly and Monthly sets are particularly useful in finding long term Supply and Demand levels.
The three sets of selectable periods are spit into the following sets:
Daily Set (1,2,3,4,5,7,10 or 14 Days)
Weekly Set (1,2,3,4,5,10, or 13 Weeks)
Monthly Set (1,2,3,4,5,6,9 or 12 months)
Each set has the option to display Extension levels.
The Pivotal Level HLC3 and Range = (High - Low), are extracted from previous Period Candle.
FIB LEVELS Colours (same in each period set):
Yellow = Pivot and Pivot Zone (HLC3 by default)
Fuchsia = R1,S1 Levels 0.368 * Range
Lime = R2,S2 Levels 0.618 * Range
Red = R3,S3 Levels 0.786 * Range
Aqua = R4,S4 Levels 1.000 * Range
Green = R5,S5 Levels 1.236 * Range
Orange = R6,S6 Levels 1.382 * Range
Black = R7,S7 Levels 1.618 * Range
Maroon = R8,S8 Levels 2.000 * Range
"weekly"に関するスクリプトを検索
Pullback Trading Tool R5-65 by JustUncleLBy request this is an updated version of the "PullBack Trading Tool": removes experimental "OCC" channel, added option to display ribbons or just single moving average lines, added alert arrows for "PB" exits, added alertcondition for TV alarm subsystem, added some extract options for Pivot points and general cleanup of code.
Description:
This project incorporates the majority of the indicators needed to analyse and trade Trends for Pullbacks, swings and reversals.
Incorporated within this tool are the following indicators:
1. Major industry (Banks) recognised important EMAs in an EMA Ribbon:
Lime = EMA5 (Optional Display)
DodgerBlue = EMA12 (Optional Display)
Red = EMA36 (Optional display)
Green = EMA89
Blue = EMA200
Black = EMA633
2. The 5 EMA (default) High/Low/Close Price Action Channel (PAC), the PAC channel display is disabled by default.
3. Optionally display Fractals and optional Fractal levels
4. Optional HH, LH, LL, HL finder.
5. Optional Buy/Sell "PB" exit Alerts with Optional 200EMA filter.
6. Coloured coded Bar high lighting based on the PAC:
blue = bar closed above PAC
red = bar closed below PAC
gray = bar closed inside PAC
7. Alert condition sent to TradingView's Alarm subsystem for PB exits.
8. Pivot points with optional labels.
9. EMA5-12 Ribbon is displayed by default.
10.EMA12-36 Ribbon is displayed by default
Set up and hints:
I am unable to provide a full description here, as Pullback Trading incorporates a full trading Methodology, there are a number of articles and books written on the subject.
Set the chart to Heikin Ashi Candles (optional).
I also add a "Sweetspot Gold R3" indicator to the chart as well to help with support and resistance finding and shows where the important "00" lines are.
First on a weekly basis say Sunday night or Monday morning, analyse the Daily and Weekly charts to establish overall trends, and support/resistant levels. Draw significant mini trend lines (2/3 TL), vertical trend lines (VTL) and S/R levels. Can use the Pivots points to guide VTL drawing and Fractals to help guide 2/3 TL drawing.
Once the trend direction and any potential major reversals highlighted, drop down to lower timeframe chart and draw appropriate mini Trend line (2/3 TL) matching the established momentum direction. Take note of potential pull backs from and of the EMAs, in particular the EMA5-12 ribbon, EMA12-36 Ribbon and the 200EMA. Can use the Pivots and/or Fractals points to guide your 2/3 TL drawing.
Set a TradingView alarm on the "PBTOOL alert", with the default settings this normally occurs before or during the Break of the manually drawn TL lines.
Once alerted check to see if the TL is broken and is returning to trend away from the EMA lines, this is indicated by bar colour change to trend directional colour.
You can trade that alert or drop down to even lower time frames and perform the same TL analysis there to find trades at the lower TF. Trading at lower TF you will allow tighter Stop loss settings.
Other than the "SweetSpot Gold R3" indicator, you should not need any other indicator to successfully trade trends for Pullbacks and reversals. If you really want another indicator I suggest a momentum one for example: AO ( Awesome Oscillator ), MACD or Squeeze Momentum.
KK_Average Directional Index (ADX) Higher TFHey guys,
sometimes you just want to plot an Indicator value from a higher Timeframe on your Chart. For most Indicators this is pretty straightforward however there is one Indicator that has been giving me quite a headache while trying to do this: The Average Directional Index . Anyway after going through almost 200 versions of this script I finally found a solution that works and thought I would share this with you, since I'm sure some of you have encountered the same problem.
How it works
Go to your desired Instrument/Timeframe and add the Script
Under Settings in the field for "Higher ADX TF" put the Timeframe-code you want to pull the ADX Values from.
- Codes: Monthly - M, Weekly W, Daily - D
- Codes Intraday: The amount of hours in minutes, e.g. if you want to pull values from the 4h-Chart the code is 240 (60 for 1h, 15 for 15m ...)
In some cases (see below) the calculation might not be correct. So make sure the values are correct:
a) Write down the latest ADX of the higher TF while you are on the lower TF
b) Switch the Resolution to the higher TF
c) Compare the value you have just written down to the next to last value. They should be the same.
d) Switch back the Resolution to the lower TF and you're good to go.
Limitations
You can only pull values from higher Timeframes, e.g. you're on a 4h Chart, so you can only pull values from the Daily, Weekly and Monthly Chart. You can't pull values from the 1h Chart.
You can only pull values from Timeframes, where the higher Timeframe Close always has a corresponding Close on the lower Timeframe, e.g. you can't pull values from the 3h Chart when you are on a 2h Chart. This should be pretty rare.
The Script needs a certain amount of Data from the Higher TF before the calculated values are correct. I have tested this on several Instruments and the Script usually needs approximately 100 Bars on the higher Timeframe (often less) for the values to be correct (error < 1%).
So when the difference between your lower Timeframe and you higher Timeframe is large, e.g. you want to pull the Daily ADX value on a 15m-Chart, the calculation can be wrong. This can lead to errors in 2 Cases:
a) Backtesting: When you go over old data and get close to the last available Bar the Data will be wrong. This will limit the amount of data you can backtest.
b) Live values: When the difference between the two Timeframes is too large, it is possible that even live values are wrong, e.g. this will be the case when you are trying to pull the Daily ADX value on a 5 minute Chart. Always check if the calculation works with your desired combination of Timeframes before using it (see above).
I hope this is useful for you and whish all of you successful trading!
Best regards
Kurbelklaus
Range Delta Heiken Ashi Bollinger|Buy/Sell |OB & OS CandlesPurpose: Mathematically represent buying and selling zones for Daily/ Weekly Traders
Indicator: Calculates moving average of the candle's body with respect to the daily trading range
Buy and Sell Signals: Calculates Bollinger Range with Max/Min and Buy/Sell Bollinger signals
Overbought and Oversold Signals: Candlesticks show overbought and oversold conditions
Level of Difficulty: This indicator was written to make life easier. Follow the Rules and anyone can use it.
Rule 1: Buy when candlestick is below "purple" line
Rule 2: Sell when candlestick is above "blue" line
Rule 3: Add bollinger bands to your currency chart
Rule 4: Confirm indicator bollinger bands with currency chart's bollinger bands
Rule 5: Trade in direction of trend
Rule 6: As with all trading; no indicators are fool proof. Please trade responsibly.
****Full Customization for you****
Suggestion 1: Add bollinger bands to currency chart to improve probability
Suggestion 2: Trade the direction of Trend
Suggestion 3: This indicator works very well with Ranged Markets (or use Suggestion 2)
Disclaimer 1: This Indicator words best on Daily and Weekly time frames
Disclaimer 2: Enjoy the Indicator and feel free to ADD COMMENTS; I worked very hard for you and me :)
Auto Pivots with S/R LevelsPlots out the pivot point with corresponding Support / Resistance levels.
It will automatically determine the time frame to calculate pivots based on the current view resolution.
Monthly resolution will pull a yearly pivot
Weekly resolution will pull a monthly pivot
Daily view will pull a weekly pivot
Intraday view will pull a daily pivot.
You have the choice of using Standard pivots or Fibonacci pivots
You can choose to only display the most recent pivot or all pivots
You can chose to extend the most recent pivot across the whole chart as a price line
TODO:
- Add in the ability to choose how far back historically to display pivots
- Add in calculations for smaller resolutions to calculate off lower time frames. EX: minute resolution should pull hour time frame to calculate pivots.
Herrick Payoff Index for Quandl DataUpdate to my previous Herrick Payoff Index script. This script pulls Quandl futures data with daily open interest. The prior version only used the weekly Commitment of Traders open interest data so could only be used on weekly bars. Note: Must use Quandl Symbol methodology in chart (i.e. enter symbol as QUANDL:CHRIS/CME_FC2, QUANDL:CME/FCX2016, ect.). Unfortunately, I haven't been able to program this to pull from the embedded futures data.
UCS_S_Stochastic Pop and Drop StrategyMy Contribution to Jake Bernstein Educational Series, Initiated by Chris Moody.
The Stochastic Pop was developed by Jake Bernstein and modified by David Steckler. Bernstein's original Stochastic Pop is a trading strategy that identifies price pops when the Stochastic Oscillator surges above 80. Steckler modified this strategy by adding conditional filters using the Average Directional Index (ADX) and the weekly Stochastic Oscillator.
Modifications
1. Weekly Stochastic Oscillator for Trading Bias = 5* Daily Stochastic
2. Optional Volume Confirmation, Custom Average Volume Length
Future Plans
1. Adding Triggers for Entry, Stops and Target. - This will be release when we have ability to code the complete Strategy. Although it can be done with the current pinescript options, it would be far more easier if we have strategy ability.
Link for Educational Purpose
stockcharts.com
-
Good Luck Trading
UCSgears
Bitcoin Buy-the-Dip + Bottom (Auto TF Swtich)This indicator is designed for friends who wish to invest in Bitcoin but are neither familiar with trading nor have the time/energy to learn it, helping them buy Bitcoin at the right timing.
It is intended only for daily , weekly , and monthly charts, and should be used as follows:
- In a bull market cycle: When Bitcoin’s price falls below the Dip line , allocate 25% of your position to buy Bitcoin.
- When the daily chart forms a clear lower low, it signals the transition from a bull market to a bear market.
- In a bear market cycle: When Bitcoin’s price drops below the Bottom line , consider deploying a large position to accumulate Bitcoin.
Wishing you all financial freedom—and To The Moon! 🚀
CVD – Visible Range Candles & Line (Cumulative Delta Volume)Disclaimer:
This indicator is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. The author assumes no liability for any losses, damages, or errors arising from use or misuse of this script. Please test thoroughly and use at your own risk.
________________________________________________________________________________
Purpose
This indicator provides a fast and clear visualization of Cumulative Delta Volume (CVD) for the currently visible chart range in TradingView. It helps traders identify buy/sell volume pressure and market sentiment over any custom timeframe, with full control over reset intervals and chart style.
Key Features
CVD by Visible Bars: Dynamically calculates CVD only for bars currently visible on the chart, so scrolling and zooming always rescale the line and candles to your view.
Style Selection: Choose line or candlestick display. Candles include both standard OHLC and optional Heikin Ashi smoothing.
Automatic Resets: Restart CVD accumulation at the beginning of every day, week, month, or quarter. Choose ‘None’ for ongoing accumulation.
Fully Custom Colors: Line color, candle body, wick, border – all optimized for clarity and customizable via the indicator’s Style tab.
Autoscale Support: Always fits your timeframe. No need to adjust scale manually.
Zero-Level Reference: Includes a horizontal zero line for quick reversal detection.
Input Parameters
Style: "Line" or "Candles" – controls visual type
Heikin Ashi candles: Enable smoothing for candle view
Show Line: Toggle CVD line visibility
Reset CVD: Options: None, Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly
How To Use
Add the indicator to your TradingView chart.
Select your preferred visual style (Line or Candles).
Choose reset frequency based on your trading timeframe.
Customize colors in the Style tab (line, candle up/down, wick, border).
Scroll or zoom on the chart – the indicator’s range always fits the currently visible bars.
Typical Use Cases
Intraday traders tracking open/close session volume delta
Swing traders identifying quarterly or monthly market accumulations
Visualizing buy/sell pressure divergence at reversal points
Comparing volume sentiment across flexible chart intervals
Formula
Delta calculation: Delta=volume×(sign(close−open))
Accumulation: Resets at user-chosen intervals, CVD plotted for only visible bars
Author
Created by Ronen Cohen
CL INVENTORY (Cartoon_Futures)Tracks the 30min range on the weekly inventory news
Designed for 30min chart and under.
MarketSurge EPS Line [tradeviZion]MarketSurge EPS Line
EPS trend line overlay for TradingView charts, inspired by the IBD MarketSurge (formerly MarketSmith) EPS line style.
Comparison: Left side shows IBD MarketSurge EPS line as reference. Right side shows this TradingView script producing similar output with interactive tooltips. The left side image is for reference only to demonstrate similarity - it is not part of the TradingView script.
Features:
Displays EPS trend line on price charts
Uses 4-quarter earnings moving average
Shows earnings momentum over time
Works with actual, estimated, or standardized earnings data
Customizable line color and width
Interactive tooltips with detailed earnings information
Custom symbol analysis support
How to Use:
Add script to chart
EPS line appears automatically
Adjust color and width in settings if needed
Hover over line for earnings details
Settings Explained:
Display Settings:
Show EPS Line: Toggle to show or hide the EPS trend line
EPS Line Color: Choose the color for the EPS trend line and labels
EPS Line Width: Adjust the thickness of the EPS trend line (1-5 pixels)
Symbol Settings:
By default, the indicator analyzes the EPS data for the symbol currently displayed on your chart. The Custom Symbol feature allows you to:
Analyze EPS data for a different symbol without changing your chart
Compare earnings trends of related stocks or competitors
View EPS data for one symbol while analyzing price action of another
To use Custom Symbol:
Enable "Use Custom Symbol" checkbox
Click on "Custom Symbol" field to open TradingView's symbol picker
Search and select the symbol you want to analyze
The indicator will fetch and display EPS data for the selected symbol
Note: The chart will still show price action for your current symbol, but the EPS line will reflect the custom symbol's earnings data.
Data Settings:
EPS Field: Choose which earnings data source to use:
Actual Earnings: Reported earnings from company financial statements (default). Use this to analyze historical performance based on what companies actually reported.
Estimated Earnings: Analyst consensus forecasts for future quarters. Use this to see what analysts expect and compare expectations with actual results.
Standardized Earnings: Earnings adjusted for comparability across companies. Use this when comparing multiple stocks as it normalizes accounting differences.
Display Scale:
For the indicator to display correctly on the existing chart, it uses its own axis (right scale) by default. However, you can change this, but the view will not look the same. The right scale is recommended for optimal visibility as it allows the EPS line to be clearly visible alongside price action without compression.
Example: EPS line on separate right scale (recommended) - hover over labels to view detailed earnings tooltips
Example: EPS line pinned to Scale A (not recommended - appears as straight line due to small EPS range compared to price)
Example: EPS line displayed in separate pane below price chart
Methodology Credits:
This indicator implements the EPS line visualization methodology developed by Investor's Business Daily (IBD) for their MarketSurge platform (formerly known as MarketSmith). The EPS line concept helps visualize earnings momentum alongside price action, providing a fundamental overlay for technical analysis.
Technical Details:
Designed for daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes
Minimum 4 quarters of earnings data required
Uses TradingView's built-in earnings data
Automatically handles missing or invalid data
This indicator helps you visualize earnings trends alongside price action, providing a fundamental overlay for your technical analysis.
Wyckoff Accumulation/Distribution - Enhanced by ChakraWyckoff Accumulation/Distribution - Enhanced Indicator
Overview
An advanced Pine Script v6 indicator that detects Wyckoff accumulation and distribution patterns using RSI-based trend analysis, pivot detection, and volume confirmation. This enhanced version improves upon traditional Wyckoff indicators with cleaner code, English variable names, and additional market structure signals.
Key Features
Wyckoff Phase Detection
Accumulation Phase:
SC (Selling Climax): Bottom pivot with extreme bearish RSI and high volume
AR (Automatic Rally): First bounce after selling climax
ST (Secondary Test): Retest of lows without extreme RSI
SOS (Sign of Strength): Strong bullish breakout with volume confirmation ⭐ NEW
Distribution Phase:
BC (Buying Climax): Top pivot with extreme bullish RSI and high volume
DAR (Automatic Reaction): First drop after buying climax
DST (Distribution Secondary Test): Retest of highs
SOW (Sign of Weakness): Strong bearish breakdown with volume confirmation ⭐ NEW
Market Structure Events
Spring: False breakdown (RSI crosses above lower band) with background highlight
UTAD (Upthrust After Distribution): False breakout (RSI crosses below upper band) with background highlight
Visual Features
Range Boxes: Automatically draws consolidation ranges (gray) that change color on breakout:
🟢 Green = Accumulation (bullish breakout)
🔴 Red = Distribution (bearish breakout)
Pivot Markers: Orange triangles show regular (non-Wyckoff) pivot points
Bar Coloring: Lime bars for bullish trends, purple bars for bearish trends
Color-Coded Labels: All Wyckoff events clearly marked with descriptive text
Customizable Settings
RSI Settings:
RSI Length (default: 14)
Trend Sensitivity (default: 20) - Higher values = more sideways detection
Pivot Settings:
Pivot Length (default: 5) - Controls pivot point detection sensitivity
Display Options:
Toggle range boxes on/off
Toggle regular pivot markers
Toggle bar coloring by trend
Customize label text color
Advanced Detection:
Volume Confirmation toggle - Require high volume for climax events
Volume Threshold (default: 1.5x) - Adjustable volume multiplier
Alerts
8 comprehensive alert conditions:
Selling Climax (SC)
Buying Climax (BC)
Spring detection
UTAD detection
Sign of Strength (SOS)
Sign of Weakness (SOW)
Range Breakout
Improvements Over Original
✅ Pine Script v6 (latest version)
✅ English variable names (was Turkish)
✅ Fixed DAR label bug (was showing "AR")
✅ Added SOS (Sign of Strength) detection
✅ Added SOW (Sign of Weakness) detection
✅ Optional volume confirmation toggle
✅ Organized input groups for better UX
✅ Enhanced visual options
✅ Comprehensive alert system
✅ Cleaner, more maintainable code structure
Best Use Cases
Timeframes: Works on all timeframes; best on 4H, Daily, or Weekly
Markets: Stocks, Forex, Crypto, Indices
Trading Style: Swing trading, position trading, market structure analysis
Combine With: Support/Resistance, Volume Profile, Order Flow analysis
How It Works
The indicator uses RSI to identify market states (sideways, bullish, bearish) and combines this with pivot point detection and volume analysis to identify key Wyckoff events. When price is ranging (RSI between upper/lower bands), it draws a box. On breakout, the box color changes to indicate accumulation or distribution, helping traders identify smart money positioning.
Tips for Use
Lower Trend Sensitivity (10-15) for more signals in trending markets
Higher Trend Sensitivity (25-30) for clearer signals in choppy markets
Enable Volume Confirmation in high-volume markets (stocks, major crypto)
Disable Volume Confirmation in low-volume or forex markets
Watch for Spring/UTAD events within boxes for potential reversals
Version: 1.0
Pine Script: v6
Author: Chakrapani Chittabathina
Intra-Day SMAsIntra-Day SMAs is a simple yet essential tool for intraday traders who need to see daily moving average levels while working on lower timeframes. When you're trading on 5-minute, 15-minute, or hourly charts, it's critical to know where the key daily SMAs sit—these levels often act as significant support and resistance zones where price reacts. This indicator overlays up to four daily Simple Moving Averages directly onto your intraday chart, with default periods set to the most commonly watched levels: 5, 10, 20, and 50-day SMAs. Each SMA can be individually toggled on or off, with fully customizable colors and line widths to match your chart theme and visual preferences. While the indicator defaults to daily timeframe SMAs (the most common use case), an optional custom timeframe selector allows you to display SMAs from any higher timeframe—weekly, monthly, or any interval you choose. Whether you're scalping, day trading, or managing intraday entries for swing positions, having daily moving averages visible on your execution timeframe helps you anticipate potential turning points and avoid entering trades directly into overhead resistance or support. Clean, lightweight, and fully configurable.
Thirdeyechart Index – 7 MajorsThe 7 Majors Masterclass is a professional TradingView indicator designed for traders who want a fast, clear, and comprehensive view of the market direction of the 7 major forex pairs. This version monitors EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, USDCAD, AUDUSD, and NZDUSD simultaneously, allowing traders to see global forex trends at a glance.
The indicator calculates percentage changes for each pair across Weekly (W), Daily (D), 4-Hour (H4), and 1-Hour (H1) timeframes. Positive changes are highlighted in blue, negative changes in red, giving an immediate visual cue of market direction. A Total Average Trend Strength is calculated across all timeframes, helping traders quickly identify strong, weak, or neutral trends for each currency pair.
Math Logic Behind the Indicator
Percent change per timeframe:
pct_tf = ((close_tf - open_tf) / open_tf) * 100
Collect all timeframe values for each pair:
values =
Total Average Trend Strength:
Total_Avg = sum(values) / 4
Trend interpretation (default thresholds):
≥ +0.50 → Strong Uptrend
+0.15 to +0.49 → Weak Uptrend
−0.14 to +0.14 → Neutral
−0.49 to −0.15 → Weak Downtrend
≤ −0.50 → Strong Downtrend
The table layout is boxed and clean, making it easy to compare multiple pairs simultaneously. Traders can use it for intraday, swing, or long-term analysis, quickly assessing which pairs are strong or weak and planning trades accordingly.
This indicator is informational and educational only. It does not provide buy or sell signals. Users must perform their own analysis and apply proper risk management before taking any trades.
Disclaimer / Copyright:
© 2025 Thirdeyechart. All rights reserved. Redistribution, copying, or commercial use without permission is prohibited. The author is not responsible for any trading losses or financial decisions made using this indicator.
Thirdeyechart Gold – 8 XAUThe XAU – 8 Gold Version is the newest and most advanced edition in the Masterclass series, designed specifically for gold traders who need fast, accurate, and multi-angle analysis of XAU behavior across global markets. This version monitors 8 different gold-related symbols simultaneously, presenting all data inside a clean, solid boxed layout. It gives traders a clear view of global XAU direction without switching charts.
This version includes percentage change calculations for Weekly (W), Daily (D), 4-Hour (H4), and 1-Hour (H1) timeframes for all eight gold-related pairs you insert. Positive values appear in blue, negative in red. The upgraded layout is optimized to remain clean, compact, and readable even with eight gold symbols displayed.
Fast Trend Detection With Math Logic
The core of the Final Version is the Total Average Trend Strength Calculation, allowing traders to instantly identify whether gold is in a strong uptrend, weak uptrend, neutral zone, weak downtrend, or strong downtrend—based entirely on mathematical logic.
Math Logic Used:
Percent change per timeframe:
pct_tf = ((close_tf - open_tf) / open_tf) * 100
All timeframe values are collected:
values =
Total Average Strength:
Total_Avg = sum(values) / 4
Final Strength Interpretation (default thresholds):
≥ +0.50 → Strong Uptrend
+0.15 to +0.49 → Weak Uptrend
−0.14 to +0.14 → Neutral
−0.49 to −0.15 → Weak Downtrend
≤ −0.50 → Strong Downtrend
This system ensures fast, unbiased direction detection across all 8 gold symbols at once.
The 8-Gold layout allows traders to see global pressure on XAU from multiple markets such as USD, JPY, EUR, GBP, AUD, CHF, CAD, and NZD — making this version extremely powerful for global gold trend reading.
Disclaimer
© 2025 Thirdeyechart. All rights reserved. This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. Not a buy/sell signal. Redistribution or commercial use without permission is strictly prohibited. The author is not responsible for any trading loss.
Macro Return ForecastWhen the macro environment was similar, what annualized return did the market usually deliver next?
Before using the indicator, make sure your chart is set to any US-market symbol (SPX, QQQ, DIA, etc.).
This requirement is simple: the indicator pulls macro series from US data (yields, TIPS, credit spreads, breadth of US indices).
Because these series are independent from the chart’s price series, the chart symbol itself does not affect the internal calculations.
Any US symbol works, and the output of the model will be identical as long as you are on a US asset with daily, weekly or monthly timeframe.
The plotted price does not matter: the macro engine is fully exogenous to the chart symbol.
1. What the indicator does relative to selected assets
In the settings you choose which market you want to analyze:
- S&P500
- Nasdaq or NQ100
- Dow Jones
- Russell 2000
- US-wide (VTI)
- S&P500 sectors (XLF, XLY, XLP, etc.)
For each one, the indicator loads:
- Its internal breadth series (percentage of constituents above MA200)
- Its price history to compute forward log-returns at multiple horizons
- Its regime position relative to its own MA200 (for bull/bear filtering)
This means the tool is not tied to the chart symbol you display.
If your chart is SPX but the indicator setting is “S&P500 Technology”, the expected return projection is computed for the Technology sector using its own data, not the chart’s data.
You can therefore:
- Visualize macro-driven expected returns for any major US index or sector.
- Compare how different parts of the market historically reacted to similar macro states.
- Switch assets instantly to see which segment historically behaved better in comparable macro conditions.
The indicator becomes an analyzer of macro sensitivity, not a chart-dependent indicator.
2. Method overview
The model answers a statistical question:
“When macro conditions looked like they do today, what forward annualized return did this asset usually deliver?”
To do this it combines four macro pillars:
- Market breadth of the selected asset
- Yield curve slope (US 10Y minus 2Y)
- US credit spread (high yield minus gov)
- US real rate (TIPS 10Y)
It normalizes each metric into a 0–100 score, groups similar historical states into bins, and examines what the asset did next across six horizons (from ~9 months to ~5 years).
This produces a historical map connecting macro states to realized forward returns.
It is not a forecast model.
It is a conditional-distribution estimator: it tells you what has historically happened from similar setups.
3. Why this produces useful insights on assets
For any chosen asset (SPX, Nasdaq, sectors…), the indicator computes:
- Its forward return distribution in similar macro states.
- How often these states occurred (n).
- Whether the macro environment that preceded positive returns in the past resembles today’s.
- Whether the asset tends to be more sensitive or more resilient than the broad index under given macro configurations.
- Whether a given sector historically benefited from specific yield-curve, credit or real-rate environments.
This lets you answer questions such as:
- Does this sector usually outperform in an inverted yield curve environment?
- Does the Nasdaq historically recover strongly after breadth collapses?
- How did the S&P500 behave historically when real rates were this high?
- Is today’s credit-spread environment typically associated with positive or negative forward returns for this index?
These insights are not predictions but statistical context backed by past market behavior.
4. Why the technique is robust (and why it matters)
The engine uses strict, non-optimistic data processing:
- Winsorization of returns to neutralize extreme outliers without deleting information.
- Shrinkage estimators to avoid overfitting when bins contain few occurrences.
- Adaptive or static bounds for scaling macro indicators, ensuring comparability across cycles.
- Inverse-variance weighting of horizons with penalties for horizon redundancy.
- HAC-style adjustments to reduce autocorrelation bias in return estimation.
Each method aims to prevent artificial inflation of expected-return values and to keep the estimator stable even in unusual macro states.
This produces a result that is not “optimistic”, not curve-fit, not dependent on chart tricks, and not sensitive to isolated historical anomalies.
5. What you get as a user
A single clean line:
Expected Annual Return (%)
This line reflects how the chosen asset historically performed after macro environments similar to today’s.
The color gradient and confidence indicator (n) show the density of comparable episodes in history.
This makes the output extremely simple to read:
- High, stable expectation: historically supportive macro environment.
- Low or negative expectation: historically weaker environments.
- Low confidence: the macro state is rare and historical comparisons are limited.
The tool therefore adds context, not signals.
It helps you understand the environment the asset is currently in, based on how markets behaved in similar conditions across US market history.
