$ASML consolidation is almost over! PT > 1100

9月6日

- Reasons to be bullish on Monopolistic ASML :

- Open AI has decided to manufacture their own chips by partnering with AVGO (bullish) and is bearish for NVDA and AMD
- Writing was in the wall, if there's gold rush, everyone will start sourcing their own equipments to be more efficient than relying on others all the time once scale is reached.

- Nonetheless, instead of running to $NVDIA, even hyperscalers would like to have their variants of the chips so that they can keep the money flow internal whenever possible.

- Who would be the beneficiary for the next race for building custom chips in next 4-5 years? I don't know but I do know that ASML would be in a similar position like NVDA was in 2023-2024 where NVDA basically provided shovels to the goldminers ( companies using chips )

- Now, big companies have ambitions to build chips in house which is bullish for AVGO and primarily ASML

9月6日

ノート

Fundamentals wise price targets:

Year |2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 27.79 | 29.18 | 35.11 | 40.18
EPS% | 39.16% | 4.98% | 20.33% | 14.44%

EPS growth is high double digit except 2026. However, ASML is a monopoly therefore, I don't mind paying forward p/e 30

Fair value:
Year |2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
Price | 833 | 875 | 1053 | 1205

9月6日

ノート

- ASML is forming inverse head and shoulders on weekly timeframe.

9月6日

ノート

Price Targets based on fibonacci retracements considering top was $1108 on 11 July 2024 and low was $579 on April 07, 2025 :

PT #1 ( fib 0.236 ) : $704 ✅
PT #2 ( fib 0.382 ) : $782 ✅
PT #3 ( fib 0.5 ) : $844
PT #4 ( fib 0.618 ) : $906
PT #5 ( fib 0.786 ) : $995
PT #6 ( fib 1 ) : $1108
PT #7 ( fib 1.618 ) : $1435

9月9日

ノート

- ASML investing in Mistral AI is bullish for the whole european tech scene because they are supporting a competition to Open AI, Claude etc and European law/policy making is usually stricter than US therefore mistral could have huge upside by expansion in Europe which should amplify ASML gains and help them with diversification

9月9日

ノート

- Short term investor would have preferred stock buyback and but for long term investor ASML
investment could reap them 2-5x return on investment on their investment in mistral ai

9月15日

ノート

PT #3 ( fib 0.5 ) : $844 is reached on September 15, 2025

9月20日

ノート

- China banning NVDA is yet another bullish tailwind for ASML . Chinese tech companies would be building their in-house chips.

9月22日

ノート

PT #4 ( fib 0.618 ) : $906 is reached

9月22日

ノート

Next target:
PT #5 ( fib 0.786 ) : $995

9月22日

ノート

Aren't you guys tired of winning?

if not, follow for more action before it happens!

10月2日

ノート

PT #5 ( fib 0.786 ) : $995 reached :)

10月2日

ノート

Next Target: PT #6 ( fib 1 ) : $1108

10月8日

トレード終了: 利益確定目標に到達

closing trade and securing the gains