5/13/24 - $baba - small buyer into tmr's AM print

2024年5月13日

5/13/24 - vrockstar - BABA - on almost every metric this thing remains cheap. you and i both know this. that seems to be beside the issue and it's more a function of the AMEX:KWEB-style flows here more than anything. realistically, there's a lot of optionality in the model too that can be communicated that skews more +ve than -ve. they have a bunch of businesses that can be spun/ or valued separately. i equally believe anyone that's recently been accumulating BABA is (*not) going to monetize the whole stake on a beat and probably adds to it in a "miss" (whatever that even means at this pt given the valuation and low expectations). therefore the bias remains to the upside here in the print and i'd look to enter here sub $80 on a miss - but realistically i might take a small punt to the upside and look to capture the continued move higher should the nasdaq remain bid thru the close.

eyeballing the potential up/downside moves here of +10 vs. -10 they look quite balanced. and again i think the balance of chart strength + low expectations probably keep this thing skewing the expected value up... vs. down into print.

2024年6月28日

ノート

one of the names that showed up my screen last night but b/c i commented on so much stuff i wanted to take a breather.

this one is either the most obvious buy in the world or remains a value trap for at least another 6 months.

my sense is the best way to play will be a retrace of recent months lows (if we get a risk off move - which again - i'd guess probably happens in the next weeks if i had to guess)... otherwise to remain on the sidelines. it's not like it's the only oppty in EM (DLO is my top play rn - but equally not an easy call, tho i have more conviction). KSPI also interesting - haven't written this up. NU has been running. SE not convinced but on my short list (haven't written this up).

tough to own anything outside the US rn, but i'm sure there are handful of names that we should be adding to our short lists including baba.

anyone know of a smart twitter account or have a nuanced opinion on this one?

V

2024年6月28日

ノート

after looking into the huggingface sentiment on their LLM's i can't help but have flashbacks to my META days. i was a lone wolf buying that in the 80s/90s/shr and feeling like maybe i was missing something. let it go for $150 and honestly "made money". it was also trading at single digit PE's and throwing of hella cash. not chinese lol, but it's meta - it's a state-run company amirite or amirite?

so anyway back to baba.

huggingface.co/Qwen

starting my position this PM for 50 bps. this isn't a trading position (same logic as NXT), so i'm looking to accumulate here. target would be 1.5-2% all else equal and need to see by risk environment etc. etc.

lego fam.

lmk if i'm fingering a hornet's nest or a beehive. time will tell.

V

2024年7月17日

ノート

cut the position to 0% (this AM) on the ASML headline that US is being a bit more hostile toward export tech generally/ knowledge interference to China. i'll look to re-enter sooner than later - but this isn't a simple buy and hold forever - and the semis complex really suffering as as a result of good ASML results but based on this commentary tells me chinese stonks especially those traded in US should probably be difficult beta in a possible small nasdaq pullback. FYI.

Bot some ASML, NVDA and TSM (that reports this week too) but more as minii swings and value into this headline not obvious - which is why i won't write them up - but if we get a bigger dip on semis beyond today's AM move, you'll all hear from me :)

have a good day friends, lmk if u see things i should focus attn on

V