PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 28 FEB 2023

2023年2月28日

Today was relatively flattish trading day except may be the period 13.50 to 14.10 when we had a minor scare !

There are 2 major news, one acting on the bull side & the other bearish for BANKNIFTY tomorrow !
HDFC & HDFCBANK merger news

2. India's GDP rises to 4.4% vs 4.6% estimates
India's GDP Growth Slows To 4.4% In Q3; Pegged At 7% For Full Year

So the trade today has set up a perfect stage for tomorrow, i may not know the direction but i seriously think we might be able to get a trend.

Today's open was inline at 40302 and stayed above the support line, infact we had a good range bound trade for 4hr 40mts. This also reflected quite well with the FinNifty as well & the expiry trading would have worked out quite well for the latter.

BANKNIFTY was not at all looking in the mood to rally or break today - it seemed like there was so strong momentum in either direction. But by 13.26 i almost thought we will have a good fall & posted the same in bank nifty minds in TradingView
"i am ready if BANKNIFTY is planning to fall"

The fall lasted only 231pts and briefly broke the support line (not a conclusive break still), before recouping the losses & returning to where it started.

During the close i felt there was a huge volume traded on ICICIBANK SBIN AXISBANK KOTAKBANK . Maybe its related with the month end closing or rebalancing - but the spike in volumes seemed like a positional build up or unwinding
for me.



The volume is one of the reason i feel we could expect a support or resistance break tomorrow. 

Regarding the options premium - we had a good decay today & lack of volatility would have killed the spirits of the option buyers & debit spread takers. Straddlers would have enjoyed trading today !

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15mts TF shows a range bound trade (not perfect range, ideally range should be within the support & resistance levels) for 6 days 4hrs now. Those who had positions from 16th feb & went through the fall would be feeling quite uneasy by now.
I was hoping for the retest of 39742 lows in this series itself, since there are 2 more days to go i will keep the hopes alive.

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1hr TF shows a possibility of a double bottom (W pattern), but for this pattern to work the trades breakout. If we have further consolidation then this pattern will not play out well.
I havent changed my bearish view for the 1hr TF yet, i still need to see close above the resistance levels to change by opinion. And clearly it doesnt pay to have an opinion - its how we react when markets prove us wrong !


to view the 4 charts in today's discussion visit viswaram. com