A lesson in history from BraveNewCoin Bitcoin Liquid Index
アップデート済
On June 11th we have entered a bear market. The decline and consolidation will now take much longer than expected. After Coinbase, 4 major other exchanges are being subpoenaed and investigated by request from CME for possible wash trading and market manipulations. This is probably the reason why we didn't go back up on monday after weekend to sync with the futures.
This $1000 flush crash is only the first wave of what's to come. Bitcoin is trending down with target 5000, possibly lower. We have EMA death crossed and RSI oversold on all major TFs. The current upwards correction will not save the day and will be rejected from EMAs 50, 100 and prior 7000 support. There's a slim chance of hitting a bull spring below 6400 to get a slight bounce and a short term up trend (if this is a Wyckoff's accum range), but Ichimoku is bearish, Bollinger bands are squeezing and getting ready for the next move down. The selloff may accelerate below 6500. If we break 6400 and go down to 6000 the people who bought this bottom will not sit it out, they will most likely sell to break even, so don't expect lots of support there.
Watch EOSUSD and IOTUSD as leading marginal indicators for Bitcoin. These sometimes move 3x-5x the distance of BTC. Watch LTCUSD (the weakest) and ETHUSD (the strongest) for prior/follow up moves and to clarify the wave count on Bitcoin. Also watch LTCBTC and ETHBTC for clues which is the strongest. Although LTCUSD looks very bad LTCBTC does not (accumulation). When BTCUSD goes down just a bit some of the coins can even go up to finish their elliott cycles, then go down. When BTCUSD crashes most coins will drop even more. Have a stop loss! Don't get liquidated when shorting a cheap alt coin because it does not have to respect the futures and can easily be pumped to the moon.
Side note: 93000 BTC from the 6th largest BTC wallet were recently transferred to a chinese exchange, probably to sell (for OTC or to buy alts, scare tactics - other possibilities).
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Here's another view on Bitcoin's SuperCycle that challenges even the highly praised long-term bullish picture.
Watch this: KWON Sypercycle TA youtube.com/watch?v=ViQiRZ5w6LQ
On a weekly chart you can see BTCUSD history from all major exchanges: Bitstamp, Bitfinex, Poloniex, Coinbase, Kraken, MtGox and HitBTC.
BNC BLX is a combined Bitcoin Price Index that is based on the price data from several major exchanges. It represents the most complete history of Bitcoin price.
Note that the commonly used Bitstamp does not have a complete history of Bitcoin. The only exchange that goes as far back as Aug 2010 is MtGox. BTCChina, OkCoin and Huobi probably go there as well but TradingView has only a limited history from those. The implications are huge:
- according to Bitstamp, we're in wave 4 and another huge wave 5 up is coming. And wave 3 was the 20K bull run.
- according to BLX, wave 5 was the 20K bull run. So, now we have a completed 1-2-3-4-5 SuperCycle and the only way is down because we need to correct this whole 5-wave super structure. Thus a deeper and longer bearish market that will last for months and even years can be expected. We may even ultimately trend down to wave 4 territory of level 170 (extreme target).
This $1000 flush crash is only the first wave of what's to come. Bitcoin is trending down with target 5000, possibly lower. We have EMA death crossed and RSI oversold on all major TFs. The current upwards correction will not save the day and will be rejected from EMAs 50, 100 and prior 7000 support. There's a slim chance of hitting a bull spring below 6400 to get a slight bounce and a short term up trend (if this is a Wyckoff's accum range), but Ichimoku is bearish, Bollinger bands are squeezing and getting ready for the next move down. The selloff may accelerate below 6500. If we break 6400 and go down to 6000 the people who bought this bottom will not sit it out, they will most likely sell to break even, so don't expect lots of support there.
Watch EOSUSD and IOTUSD as leading marginal indicators for Bitcoin. These sometimes move 3x-5x the distance of BTC. Watch LTCUSD (the weakest) and ETHUSD (the strongest) for prior/follow up moves and to clarify the wave count on Bitcoin. Also watch LTCBTC and ETHBTC for clues which is the strongest. Although LTCUSD looks very bad LTCBTC does not (accumulation). When BTCUSD goes down just a bit some of the coins can even go up to finish their elliott cycles, then go down. When BTCUSD crashes most coins will drop even more. Have a stop loss! Don't get liquidated when shorting a cheap alt coin because it does not have to respect the futures and can easily be pumped to the moon.
Side note: 93000 BTC from the 6th largest BTC wallet were recently transferred to a chinese exchange, probably to sell (for OTC or to buy alts, scare tactics - other possibilities).
_________________________________________________________
Here's another view on Bitcoin's SuperCycle that challenges even the highly praised long-term bullish picture.
Watch this: KWON Sypercycle TA youtube.com/watch?v=ViQiRZ5w6LQ
On a weekly chart you can see BTCUSD history from all major exchanges: Bitstamp, Bitfinex, Poloniex, Coinbase, Kraken, MtGox and HitBTC.
BNC BLX is a combined Bitcoin Price Index that is based on the price data from several major exchanges. It represents the most complete history of Bitcoin price.
Note that the commonly used Bitstamp does not have a complete history of Bitcoin. The only exchange that goes as far back as Aug 2010 is MtGox. BTCChina, OkCoin and Huobi probably go there as well but TradingView has only a limited history from those. The implications are huge:
- according to Bitstamp, we're in wave 4 and another huge wave 5 up is coming. And wave 3 was the 20K bull run.
- according to BLX, wave 5 was the 20K bull run. So, now we have a completed 1-2-3-4-5 SuperCycle and the only way is down because we need to correct this whole 5-wave super structure. Thus a deeper and longer bearish market that will last for months and even years can be expected. We may even ultimately trend down to wave 4 territory of level 170 (extreme target).
ノート
This is KWON's Bullish TA of BLX youtube.com/watch?v=LZXYF1TePJEHe's basically saying that MtGox's legs could be waves I-II and the rest of the count is very similar to the old one shown on Bitstamp before BLX was introduced (see my version of a similar count below). He concludes that we could still be in wave 4 of a larger degree wave III.
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