Lengthening final run.

2021年11月13日

This chart shows how in our final run we bounce between the same two levels of the log regression line, and then we take off. The first cycle shown here (2013) we basically shot straight up and reached our high in 28 days from the marked position. In the second cycle (2017), we bounced around, took a sudden drop to liquidate longs, and the shot straight up. In this case it took closer to 50 days. By this logic, we should expect something along the lines of 70 days from today, but at the very least 50.

A new phenomenon encountered in this cycle was the flat top encountered in the beginning of this year. I believe that it will be more likely that we see this style of distribution towards the top, rather than a blow off top. A lot of people will be expecting a huge volatile move, but I expect slowing momentum and then we round off. It is also, therefore, less likely that we reach the top log regression line(s). Usually when everyone has a target, the target is not hit. People will be taking profits into the pump, causing this flat top.

It is looking like the top will be in Q1 2022, but If we see any massive moves before then I would definitely be taking profits.