BTCUSD: Attack for new ATH unbeldiによるINDEX:BTCUSDの分析

BTCUSD: Attack for new ATH

In early July bitcoin concluded a correction of the five-wave run up from 38.5 k (January), reaching a local low at about 53.5 k on July 5.

In two weeks, the market has embarked on a strong rally of about 14 thousand points. The structure of this leg appears to be that of an extended first wave, with a sequence of 1-2-1-2—3-4-3-4, with only the fifth wave missing. On the four-hour candle chart, the last bar for the fourth wave was a bullish engulfing candle, promising a strong progress into the fifth wave, currently exceeding 68000.

This presents an opportunity to print a new all-time high in the coming hours and days.

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A slightly larger view and context, a few hours earlier.

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This larger chart also suggests a traditional TA approach by indicating a large bull flag with a flag pole extending up from 38.5 k. The length of this pole suggests a target of around 100000 dollars for BTC in the coming weeks.

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The fourth wave is actually taking a little more time than indicated on my chart, which is quite alright, not everything can be predicted in detail, especially the corrections are difficult often. Price has pulled back to 65.8 k so far.

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It seems the fourth wave has finished at the bottom trend line of the regression channel over the entire wave sequence.
The shap if the 3rd/4th wave structure appears more complete and substantial now, much like the preceding 3/4 combination.

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The market kept pulling the price lower, undercutting the regression channel by quite a bit, even while expanding it.
I saw the possibility that the fifth wave is already in, requiring a bit of recounting waves, but in recent hours a reversal has recaptured the channel.

The depth has not exceeded the prior fourth wave in lower degree, but that may not be a surefire sign for either count.

We remain optimistic for further advances according to existing count.

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The price has come up very quickly on this leg, to over 67000 already in a matter of hours. To me, this raises the suspicion that it may be a B-wave. They are potential bull traps, sucker waves, that precede another leg down. This would make sense here also to provide alternation to the previous fourth wave, which was a single “sharp” downward trend. Perhaps we get a flat here or even a triangle. We should know soon.

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This leg looks ever more like a B-wave, abc, now with an ending diagonal in wave c. It has not been able to reach beyond the prior high.

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We finally did get a new July high by over a thousand points, by exceeding the 2021 ATH, which is still the key resistance level in this area that the market has been fighting over since March.
The wave structure of this leg still leaves us a bit in the dark, I can’t really state that the three-wave form is gone, and B-waves can trade past their preceding motive tops. So, we’ll wait some more for resolution.
Fifth waves in this scenario, with extensions in wave three in 1-2-1-2 and 3-4-3-4 counting, may not be very long. But we shall see what the market gives.
Price is still four thousand points short of new ATH.

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Here is a possible count developing for the fifth wave. Currently back testing the resistance line in subwave iv.

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If the fifth subwave, v, gains the same size as wave iii, it will end right close to the ATH. The green arrow indicates this. It has the same height as wave iii. So a new ATH is possible.

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The ATH also coincides with the 1.618 Fibonacci multiple of wave one. By luck?

It is actually quite typical that a prior market top presents a major resistance and limit for the first wave of a new uptrend. The first wave is the five-wave run-up from 53 k. This might get retraced quite a bit, before further targets in price discovery.

But there is plenty of work to be done to get that far.

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This market is now penetrating the resistance zone between the 2021 ATH and this years ATH, threatening 70,000. The chart clearly show that the 2021 high was still a significant level.

The wave count at this stage looks promising. There perhaps is some question about the structure of subwave four, iv. It could be a flat or WXY, as shown, or even a triangle, somewhat oddly shaped. But that will not matter anymore with the progress we are seeing.

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The +/- 2-sigma regression channel contains 95% of pricing, and this can still include a substantial upswing to the top line, without being in overbought territory.

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With just a little bit of Elliott Wave artistry, waves iii and iv might also be counted as waves one and two of larger degree, because of opportunities to further subdivide the preceding run to make a complete impulse.
This game is never easy.

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Well, the answer is in, I think. The penetration of the resistance zone has ended with a sharp pullback to the bottom of the regression channel so far. I think the dip will go deeper.
The fifth wave of this entire run from 53 k appears finished. I wrote earlier in these updates that the fifth wave after an extended third is very short. Indeed it can be measured between the 1.0 and 1.272 Fib extensions of wave one.

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Chart:

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Completing the five-wave rally from 53 k, we may label the entire run as wave one of one larger degree, and should now expect a sizable correction in wave two. A first estimate of the depth is the bottom of the fourth wave of lower degree, which came in at 63.4 k. But this is just hint or guide, not a rule. It could be as deep as 61.8%, a very significant level.
So we will have to wait for a new ATH until a new third wave progresses.

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The bottom of wave ( iv) is close to the 38.2% retracement.
50% is 61.2 k, and 61.8% is at 59.3 k.

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Price has come down to almost the 23.8% retracement level on the logarithmic Fib scale, the first significant level. I do not think this will be enough for a second wave, despite the fact that the structure already looks like a ABC. Time has also been short. This ought to take a day at least, or better two.

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The retrace is approachung the next major lever, the 38.2% fib. The decline appears to be an ABC zigzag in the making, 5-wave A, counter B, and now another 5-wave for C, likely.