Will the short follow through?

2016年9月11日

Trade followup

I took half off at my first target of $600 for a good $25 move. Now at this support we have to see if price will hold or breakthrough. If it breaks through I would expect a pivot to occur before going back down to retest the range lows. The next support would be at the Monthly 9 period Tenkan Sen of $570.

Longer term forecast

I've mentioned these near-term supports but overall what I see playing out in the long term is a setup on the weekly chart to pullback to the Ichimoku cloud . That would make my prospectus to November of $475. November historically is a seasonally bullish month so it will be interesting if this year follows that pattern after the end of a bearish trend .

Note to the permabulls:

A bearish move here and now is actually a *good* thing if you are a long term holder of Bitcoin . Asset prices cannot rise exponentially forever; that's the definition of a bubble. Do not expect to win the lottery investing in Bitcoin being 7 years old. Instead, tuck it away in cold storage and only ever look at the Weekly chart. What the weekly chart "need" to stabilize for long term growth is the move I am forecasting... a pullback to the weekly cloud and then a continuation to the highs. However, that could take many months. If it does though, Bitcoin will be demonstrating some true value resiliency which is good for your holdings.