Pullback possible short term, watch out.

2023年4月17日

BTC almost doubled its price within six months, i think a pullback is likely to happen short term.

Elements

1) Rising wedge
2) TD count 8 with signs of reversal
3) Bearish dovergence on RSI
4) Stoch RSI rolling over
5) Bearing difference on MACD, which is approaching crossover

Prognosis

Watch that rising wedge for early hints of confirmation, as BTC is very close to a high resistance area (32-36k).
I think it's healthy to trigger risk management on for a while, hedging and/or protecting existing positions.

Technically 28-26k area may be lapped or thoroughly revisited within days or few weeks.
Not excluding am impulsive retest of MA200/W (flashcrash) wicking down to the 25k mark eventually.

Anything below would such level would imply the need for a broader scenario re-assessment.

For now i'd consider a short term retrace healthy for the trend.

2023年4月17日

ノート

Ok, abruptly down 600-700$ already.
Let's see the outcome ...

2023年4月17日

ノート

Interim support is close to 29k (midline of daily BB).
Anyway, would use some caution next few days.

2023年4月17日

ノート

The picture as of now:

2023年4月19日

ノート

That's why you had to use caution.



Nice trap.

2023年4月20日

ノート

Already "lapping" the target 28-26k area.

2023年4月20日

ノート

TD count 9 on 4H

2023年4月20日

ノート

Would like to see a roughly 1k rebound towards typically 29,2-29,5k within 24/36h.
This in order to avoid a further sudden slump deep into red.

If so, to be re-evaluated.

2023年4月20日

ノート

Few minutes ago price wicked down to 28.26k, hitting the FIB an technically entering the designated target area.

It took about 4 days to successfully validate the hypothesis of this analysis.
Well within the forecast, whatever happens next.



Now we don't want to see the price plunging down more than needed here, as it may flashcrash. This is another matter.

Hence a stop and rebound is needed, as i posted above.
I'm looking forward for some relief in the next few hours, up to 24/36h.

Still hedging for now.
As per original recommendation.

Enough said for now.
Take care.

2023年4月20日

ノート

Halved the short hedge and put the outcome into a Long with target price 29,2k.
Will accept a partial risk there.

Not recommended undless you can manage a stop.

2023年4月20日

ノート

Hmm stopped already.

2023年4月20日

ノート

Reopened the interim long at 28070$.
Will let this run and see tomorrow.

2023年4月21日

ノート

Ok, now let's see.
Here is all the market (not only BTC), you may appreciate a pretty similar setup:

2023年4月21日

ノート

There 4H show an over-extended move within a falling wedge.
This hints either a bounce or a further slump to happen soon.



As per hyphotesis i'd consider the forme option more likely.
That said i am maintaining a 50% hedging as a due form of risk mitigation.

2023年4月21日

ノート

Would like to see something like this ( 6H, whole market):

2023年4月26日

ノート

Just got back, right in time to witness this bounce.
Better late than never.

2023年4月26日

ノート

Got my long from 28k closed at 29,2k as wished.
Could do better, but it worked.

Now just hedging.

2023年5月6日

ノート

It played fine so far.

Sorry for lack of updates, some health issues at the moment.
Will get back stronger.

Have a nice WE.