BTC short term bear play, possible mid term?

2018年2月19日

This 5 wave impulse wave structure so far is TEXTBOOK. It's actually kind of beautiful - but will it finish beautifully, or will we see a failed 4th wave? A failed 5th wave?

SHORT TERM:

24 hour outlook still bearish as we approach $9600-$10,000 mark.

Trendline (~9600) marks ~0.5fib retracement. There is psychological, historical, and EMA support at 10,000, but I doubt it will hold. I will still place buys in this area though.

Here we are looking for a strong bounce, with continued increasing OBV to finally test the upper trendline.

If we break below the trendline, I will be watching carefully to see if we begin to retrace into wave 1. If a 1D candle closes inside the 1D region (not just a wick, a full candle), I will short the market. I will further look to OBV trend reversal (breaking out of it's channel) to confirm.

MEDIUM TERM (~few days - a week):

If we do bounce and test the upper trendline - this will be make or break. I currently do not believe we have the strength to break it on a 5th wave, but this is only a hunch and not backed by any of my money. We will have to see how wave 4 plays out before looking further into the future.