History certainley rhymes

2021年6月8日

I am a firm believer in the power of Sine Wave, and this chart shows why.

First, some explanations:

1- The green wave, starts at the bottom of 2011 price and ends in the top of the first peak;
2- The dashed yellow wave, starts at the mid-range of sloping phase (which is the FIRST peak), reaches the bottom at the first bear market nadir, and ends in the peak of the second bull market;
3- The dashed blue wave, starts at the mid-range of sloping phase (which is the SECOND peak), passes through the second bear market nadir, and potentially will ends in the peak of the third bull market;
4- The purple band, is the the 52 week MA.
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Now, some observations:

1- Every time the 52W MA crosses a wave on its way up, it is a signal for beginning of a bull market. This cross happens at the 2/5 of the way from the bottom of the wave to the top;
2- Every time the 52W MA crosses the same wave on its way down, it is a signal for the mid-point of a bear market. This cross happens at the 2/5 of the way from the top of the wave to the bottom;
3- The dip before the peak, occurs on the sine wave's 4/5 of the way to the peak. This price difference from the wave to the dip is approximately -90%;
4- Right now we are 78% down from the wave, and -87% would take us to $20,000.
5- That being said, we have never been this close to the 52W MA in a bull cycle and if the price dips to 20K in the coming weeks, we would cross the 52W MA and unless that point doesn't act as a spring, we probably will not reach the top by the end of the year.