Last Deadcat Bounce before new lows

2018年8月19日

BTCUSDShorts are still too high, so I think we must move higher from this range before we can go lower. However, there the shorts aren't at ATH, and there is still a lot of certainty out there that we are moving lower, so I expect one more push down to really get as many bottom shorts into the mix as possible, and as few longs as possible, so that when it does fail to break lower, the upwards movement will create a run-away feedback loop where buyers will push the price up, people will begin opening long positions, shorters will hit their stop losses, and some shorters will be liquidated, all creating a massive upward buying pressure that will get us above $6700 and out of the range.

Getting above this range will swing sentiment to bullish again, and the price will keep moving up on the back of that, but it will hit resistance after resistance after resistance, and almost certainly run out of steam by $7500. My initial target is just over $7000, and do not expect it to break above $7500 at all, though a close above $8000 could be the first step to proving that the bear market is over, so *fingers crossed* for that.

Assuming that doesn't happen though, we'll probably enter a trading range somewhere around $7000 for a while, fake out to the upside once or twice, then drop down a bit, lure in more long trades, and then when the shorts are reasonably low, and the longs reasonably high, we can finally crash back down through $6000 with some momentum and break down to new lows in mid to late September.

These are my thoughts on price action anyway. Not trading advice.

2018年8月23日

ノート

Updating to say that nothing has changed. My basic analysis and rationale still stands exactly as it was, the eventuality of it has simply been delayed so far, and my convinction that we are going to have a decent short squeeze before going down has strengthened after the ETF decline and the failed breakout also failed to make the price go lower. It looks like we have established a solid base here, and failed to find more selling pressure despite everything aligning to give us new lows.

As such, with shorts still in the ATH area, and lows still down in the lower regions (and roughly 18,000BTC waiting to be bought back just to return shorts and longs to their average levels), it is inevitable that we go up.

I've moved the arrows to the current locations, but time was never the real consideration in this analysis - it will take as long as it takes.

2018年9月1日

ノート

So, the short squeeze happened, pretty much exactly as expected.



The price went up, much as expected.

From here though, it is kind of up to the market. I'm still assuming we will run out of steam around $7500 and then head back down to retest the bottom, and probably head down to new lows - hopefully for the final time. But I am now on the fence about all of this, and open to the idea that we could break out and have a serious bull run. So keep an open mind and an un-biased eye on price action as we move forwards!