late Oct 2014 = late Apr 2018?

アップデート済

We seem to have missed one step from 2014's correction (most likely because of the number of shorts and how people picked up on this trend, as well as bouncing off the log support). This may mean the end of the bear market here and now and a new pattern developing, but so far we seem to be repeating 2014's action. The % equivalent lows would be 8100 (perhaps after going up to 9050) and 7800 (perhaps after bouncing back to 8850 first), but we have 1. a trendline we had just broken, 2. log support, and 3. EMAs holding us where we are for now (though note that EMAs now are actually lower than they were back then). One way or another, be patient, and if you're losing, HODL mid-term, you should be back up by mid May no matter what. And have some fiat/stablecoins ready to rebuy the dips, even small amounts. Alts should be spiking.

We could then have a double top around 9700, like in Feb-Mar 2018, we could go to 10800 first and 11500 (which also happen to be fib levels, counted from the 6500 low), just before dropping hard like in the 2014 parallel that I highlighted here, or there might be a new bullish pattern, but this market does not feel properly bullish just yet (apart from alts, most likely to profit from the Consensus event in mid-May). One thing is certain: there will be surprises.

I still have a separate bullish mid/long-term idea (published privately for now and comparing different periods), I may publish it if it proves to have some value in this market. For now, I'm cautuious again, after FOMO'ing a bit too much, like many of us.

Thanks to hkh222 and SpectreX for discussing this with me.

ノート

Apologies for not zooming out properly, this is my first public post here -- you can fiddle with the left and bottom bars and zoom buttons and see what I had in mind this way.

ノート

If the parallel holds, at the present pace we should be done by the end of summer. Hopefully earlier if we don't go fully bearish and respect the log support and other trendlines now (mostly) working in favour of the bulls. But even though the market cap is growing, this market is still weak, especially BTC.

ノート

The equivalent next big dip would be close to $4000 and would be around 6 June, if going at the present pace.

ノート

bearish 2014 pattern shouldn't break 9200-9300 and go up from here but bounce back from around 9200 to 8400-8500, then to around 8900 and back to 8000-8100 before any continuation of the uptrend; it if does break out to the upper levels, look at my Feb bull run parallel in another post for a more likely scenario
mind that I think both scenarios should be fine for trading alts mid-term

トレード稼働中

a clearer visualisation: