Bitcoin Halving Cycles

3月2日

I'm sure this is already out there but here it is again...
These are the 4-year bitcoin cycles. They’ve repeated every 4 years thus far. It happens because bitcoin’s code was written that way. This feature makes bitcoin scarcer every four years. We can use gold as a real-world analogy – let’s say that the flow of newly mined gold that comes into the market was somehow stifled. For example, a gold mine gets swallowed up by a volcano. I have no idea if that is a thing, but if that happened, and people knew about it, the price of gold would go up due to this event because the resource would be scarcer at that point. With bitcoin this 4-year known event is called the ‘halving’ and it makes the commodity scarcer. This means that the reward for the newly ‘mined’ bitcoin is cut in half every 4 years. In the above screenshot, the halving dates are the yellow lines. The green lines are the new all-time high price that comes some number of days/weeks/months post-halving. As you can see, it’s rather predictable when the new all-time high comes in when measured from the halving.
During the bull run that is tied to the halving, the whole of the crytpo market (usually) goes up too. This means that most of the other coins go up, and any crypto related stocks go up. For example, COIN (Coinbase’s ticker symbol) or RIOT (the company I invested in where I turned 15k from a 401k into 250k.. but then it tanked and I ended up with only 150k.. <<mad emoji>> and that all happened in a very short period, like 3 to 5 months).

But we shall see. I think it's interesting that there is this eclipse coming up on the same month/year as the halving.

6月8日

ノート

Needless to say, the cycle has broken. This is the first time that bitcoin broke its previous all-time-high in the mid cycle run. I'm still going to assume, for now, that we'll still hit another all-time-high in year 4 (2025) of bitcoin's 4-year cycle. Anytime between spring 2025 till late 2025. The cycle is changing and it's likely because every year the crypto market gets more and more large institutional investors.
But one thing that does remain constant is the halving cycle of bitcoin. That is baked in. And to play devil's advocate.. is that a good thing? This built-in feature that there is a fixed supply and that the mining reward is cut in half every 4 years. What happens to a monetary system where there is no growth in the supply? What happens when you have an asset class where everyone only wants to buy because they know price will eventually go up? I would assume that eventually the velocity of the money would go to zero. That means that nobody is using it to pay for goods and services. Just speculating here. Do we have a real world example of this from history?