ビットコイン／米ドルロング
Bitcoin And The Road Ahead
アップデート済
I've finally decided to make an account on here, since I've gained confidence in my ability to analyze markets, and a number of people have told me that they find my insights helpful. I look at long term trends, breakouts, breakdowns, and support/resistance to make conditional moves. I don’t look much at Elliot Waves or fib. levels, since I think these things are baked into our subconscious anyway when thinking about numbers and lines.
For my first analysis on TradingView, I'd like to take a close look at Bitcoin. Before August, I was convinced we'd see 4K levels. It seemed inevitable to me at that point, and I was prepared to buy more when it hit. However, as I was watching the market selloff on August 13th, 2018, I noticed how quickly some altcoins were being bought, especially NANO. This gave me confidence to enter with my remaining fiat. Sometimes as price action unfolds, the picture becomes much clearer.
Prior to this, I had done some calculations by comparing NANO's bubble to the BTC bubble from 2011. I will post a separate chart about this with the simple math involved, because I find it very interesting. I concluded that if NANO were to follow BTC's 2011 bubble pop EXACTLY, it would eventually arrive at a bottom of around $0.70-0.80. I thought this was bound to happen once BTC reached the 4K level, but it happened much sooner than I anticipated. This is what drove me to buy at that time. In any case, the continued altcoin buying that has occurred in the last several months has convinced me that we are sitting at bottom. Buying pressure looks deceivingly weak for BTC, but support remains strong. That's because people are focused on cheap alts. I mean, who can blame them? Many alts far outperformed BTC last year, and many of those same alts are 90% down or more.
In this chart, you can see a few different scenarios, both in price and RSI. This is not a singular trade setup, but an analysis of BTC as a whole. Conditional buy/sell targets are at the bottom of this wall of text.
On my chart (excuse the crappiness, I need to get used to this platform), you can see a few different trend lines. The blue is the support that we've had since breaking out and retesting last November. The pink is the rising support line we’ve had since the June low, which we are comfortably sitting above. One scenario that could happen is a retest of this pink line. The RSI has some more room to go down, but it has much more room to go up, in my opinion. As for my downtrend lines, we have finally broken through all three. We broke through the falling wedge resistance (light red) in April with the massive short squeeze. That failed due to lack of buying volume at 10K (great short signal, but I was still new to market analysis so didn’t take the opportunity). This failure established the darker red resistance. We then tried to break through that resistance in July. We even tried to test it as support, but that quickly failed, creating a new triangle resistance (black). The darker red line was broken through again in September, but it proved too much of a challenge for the bulls, so we fell back below it. It took some consolidating, but we eventually broke out of it sideways. On my chart, you can see exactly where this happened. We finally broke the black resistance recently with the Tether fiasco, and have since been retesting it as support for a little while now.
Given all this, I am 90% certain that the price will not go much lower, if at all. I have drawn 4 possible scenarios for BTC in the coming months, three of which are bullish. I think the purple line is the most likely course, given the lack of volume and the continued altcoin rallies. It’s also my favorite color. During this time, I actually think it’s possible a couple of alts may try to challenge Bitcoin’s market cap. I have my eyes on XRP, XLM, and even NANO. Some major alts may seem weak right now, but remember, NANO is still more than double its bottom price, and it has held the $1.90-2.00 line well despite uncertainty with BTC. Once it’s confirmed that BTC is not going any lower by making the first higher high, I expect altcoin buying to get more intense, as higher cap alts begin seeing gains that we've been seeing mostly in low-cap coins. The blue scenario I think is less likely, but still possible, given the large number of short positions. The RSI also looks like it’s ready for a big pop. This was the scenario I was expecting a few weeks ago, but there is too much selling pressure directly above. If this happens though, price could immediately go to 10K, only to be met with selling pressure that quickly brings it down to the 7.5K level before continuing up towards 13K, which has been one of my targets for a while.
The green and red scenarios both involve capitulation. I have been waiting for something like the green scenario to materialize for many months, but it still has not happened. The number of people waiting to buy at lower levels seems to be too high for price to really venture down there. The red scenario is my only true bearish version, which involves a failure to get back above support turned resistance. Because of the price action we’ve been seeing in alts, I think worst case scenario is altcoins fall back to their previous lows (low-demand alts will make lower lows) before overtaking Bitcoin. This is a Bitcoin death scenario. However, I don’t see this happening, since Bitcoin has pretty much proven itself as a great store of value long term. In terms of its ability as a payment method, I don’t think it will last much longer, hence my belief that its market cap may be challenged by some alts.
Conditional Trading Roundup:
Buy targets:
4900-5750 for a Capitulation low
6150 for final test of new pink support
6900 with volume. Relatively safe long entry
7600 Conservative long entry (higher high)
Sell targets:
6300-5750 ONLY if we break down below 6K, bounce up, and fail hard at these levels
7500
8600
10000
13000
20000
To be continued....
This is not investment advice, nor am I a qualified financial advisor. These are my personal ideas and my own take on the market. Thanks for your support!
-Victor Cobra
For my first analysis on TradingView, I'd like to take a close look at Bitcoin. Before August, I was convinced we'd see 4K levels. It seemed inevitable to me at that point, and I was prepared to buy more when it hit. However, as I was watching the market selloff on August 13th, 2018, I noticed how quickly some altcoins were being bought, especially NANO. This gave me confidence to enter with my remaining fiat. Sometimes as price action unfolds, the picture becomes much clearer.
Prior to this, I had done some calculations by comparing NANO's bubble to the BTC bubble from 2011. I will post a separate chart about this with the simple math involved, because I find it very interesting. I concluded that if NANO were to follow BTC's 2011 bubble pop EXACTLY, it would eventually arrive at a bottom of around $0.70-0.80. I thought this was bound to happen once BTC reached the 4K level, but it happened much sooner than I anticipated. This is what drove me to buy at that time. In any case, the continued altcoin buying that has occurred in the last several months has convinced me that we are sitting at bottom. Buying pressure looks deceivingly weak for BTC, but support remains strong. That's because people are focused on cheap alts. I mean, who can blame them? Many alts far outperformed BTC last year, and many of those same alts are 90% down or more.
In this chart, you can see a few different scenarios, both in price and RSI. This is not a singular trade setup, but an analysis of BTC as a whole. Conditional buy/sell targets are at the bottom of this wall of text.
On my chart (excuse the crappiness, I need to get used to this platform), you can see a few different trend lines. The blue is the support that we've had since breaking out and retesting last November. The pink is the rising support line we’ve had since the June low, which we are comfortably sitting above. One scenario that could happen is a retest of this pink line. The RSI has some more room to go down, but it has much more room to go up, in my opinion. As for my downtrend lines, we have finally broken through all three. We broke through the falling wedge resistance (light red) in April with the massive short squeeze. That failed due to lack of buying volume at 10K (great short signal, but I was still new to market analysis so didn’t take the opportunity). This failure established the darker red resistance. We then tried to break through that resistance in July. We even tried to test it as support, but that quickly failed, creating a new triangle resistance (black). The darker red line was broken through again in September, but it proved too much of a challenge for the bulls, so we fell back below it. It took some consolidating, but we eventually broke out of it sideways. On my chart, you can see exactly where this happened. We finally broke the black resistance recently with the Tether fiasco, and have since been retesting it as support for a little while now.
Given all this, I am 90% certain that the price will not go much lower, if at all. I have drawn 4 possible scenarios for BTC in the coming months, three of which are bullish. I think the purple line is the most likely course, given the lack of volume and the continued altcoin rallies. It’s also my favorite color. During this time, I actually think it’s possible a couple of alts may try to challenge Bitcoin’s market cap. I have my eyes on XRP, XLM, and even NANO. Some major alts may seem weak right now, but remember, NANO is still more than double its bottom price, and it has held the $1.90-2.00 line well despite uncertainty with BTC. Once it’s confirmed that BTC is not going any lower by making the first higher high, I expect altcoin buying to get more intense, as higher cap alts begin seeing gains that we've been seeing mostly in low-cap coins. The blue scenario I think is less likely, but still possible, given the large number of short positions. The RSI also looks like it’s ready for a big pop. This was the scenario I was expecting a few weeks ago, but there is too much selling pressure directly above. If this happens though, price could immediately go to 10K, only to be met with selling pressure that quickly brings it down to the 7.5K level before continuing up towards 13K, which has been one of my targets for a while.
The green and red scenarios both involve capitulation. I have been waiting for something like the green scenario to materialize for many months, but it still has not happened. The number of people waiting to buy at lower levels seems to be too high for price to really venture down there. The red scenario is my only true bearish version, which involves a failure to get back above support turned resistance. Because of the price action we’ve been seeing in alts, I think worst case scenario is altcoins fall back to their previous lows (low-demand alts will make lower lows) before overtaking Bitcoin. This is a Bitcoin death scenario. However, I don’t see this happening, since Bitcoin has pretty much proven itself as a great store of value long term. In terms of its ability as a payment method, I don’t think it will last much longer, hence my belief that its market cap may be challenged by some alts.
Conditional Trading Roundup:
Buy targets:
4900-5750 for a Capitulation low
6150 for final test of new pink support
6900 with volume. Relatively safe long entry
7600 Conservative long entry (higher high)
Sell targets:
6300-5750 ONLY if we break down below 6K, bounce up, and fail hard at these levels
7500
8600
10000
13000
20000
To be continued....
This is not investment advice, nor am I a qualified financial advisor. These are my personal ideas and my own take on the market. Thanks for your support!
-Victor Cobra
ノート
Following my purple line for now, as alts have been rallying the last few days as expected. Could see another drop soon, but if this stability remains, more alts will continue to rally. However, some alts are showing signs that they need more consolidation at their bottoms. We still have the pink support all the way down near 6150 for a final shakeout scenario. ノート
Here's another possibility. It's important not to stick stubbornly to one point of view in this market, as it can change any moment. Although I've been bullish on alts recently and sideways-minded on Bitcoin, alts seem to be slumping into their own sideways cycle as well. I thought we could see an even bigger alt surge soon, but it seems like the whole market might end up going sideways for a while. I decided this based on a few observations:1) Bitcoin failed to stay above 6500 (both in USD and USDT), while many shorts closed and a few longs opened.
2) Ripple has been a market leader recently, whether you like it or not, and since it doesn't seem to be able to pump much past this historically important pink line (in my chart), it will probably NOT be entering a parabolic cycle a la 2017/2018, unless it gets back above 8000 soon. The fractal that everyone has been circling may not play out after all. Chart & analysis:
3) A number of alts are entering giant Adam & Eve bottoms (see NANO, VET, WTC, etc.). Many major alts are also appearing pretty dead on support, with no signs of busting out any time soon (NEO, ICX, IOTA, and others). However, NANO's bottom is pretty significant, in that it has followed similar price action to the 2011 BTC bubble. If you read my analysis, you'll see that if it were to play out exactly like BTC in 2011, it will pop in February 2019 (6 months from bottom):
4) Stellar has also been a market leader, and you can extend its pennant all the way until the end of 2018:
What this means is the whole market may need to consolidate for a while longer. We still should not go much below 200B total market cap, since this has proven to be a decent floor. It offers a great opportunity for people to accumulate alts and BTC as they ride on their supports. This new idea is of course invalidated if today's drop is a bear trap before an explosive run in the next week. Also, since I love using NANO as a Canary in the Coal Mine for BTC, if this scenario were to play out, we should see the true bull run begin in the first 2 months of 2019 ; )
Let's see how this plays out. It's interesting to me, whatever happens. If you read all this crap, thanks for taking the time. Probably should spend my free time doing something else for a change. Can't update my analyses 24/7.
-Victor Cobra
ノート
It's possible we go down to retest this pink line again, now sitting in the 6180 area. This would be a good chance for a capitulation V-shape low. Volume hasn't ramped up yet, but it could if we get some strong action in these levels. ノート
Either we retest that line, or this is a bear trap. Volume is fairly low, so we could see a nice bounce up from here back towards 6600. I'd wait to enter a position until it's clear where the volume is taking us, and after a clear bottomy wick candle.ノート
What a V-shape bottom could look like right now. We've failed to get out of this short term downtrend so far. ノート
Daily view with possible V-shape low, so you can see how this pink line was formed: ノート
Not sure why I had that line drawn so far down. It should be a little higher, with a V-bottom closer to 6250, not 6180. Excuse my OCD. Still relatively new at this. Wish there was a way to edit comments on here. It just looks like spam at this point. ノート
THERE we go. Messed it up again. God help me. ノート
This slightly higher level support that we just bounced off also goes all the way back to the June low. It's possible that the dump stops here, since we've had pretty pathetic sell volume so far. ノート
Looks like we've hit the target for the V-bottom I was mentioning, and it indeed has played out. However, if we don't bounce up convincingly soon, this V-bottom will likely go much lower and venture finally into that 5K zone.ノート
We could indeed be heading down to 4950-5750 for a final capitulation low. This low needs to create a doji on the weekly chart in order to ignite a bull run.ノート
Definitely hit below 5750 on USD exchanges. A bounce might be happening right about now.ノート
Looking bad for BTC so far. We seem to be following the green or red scenarios now on my chart. In the green scenario, we will dip lower to the 4900 area (already close on USD exchanges) and bounce back up hard. In the red scenario, BTC will die out and strong altcoins will overtake its market cap. HOWEVER, on this chart there is still a chance for a bounce up soon. We are currently testing the broken triangle resistance as support (dark red). As long as we close above here, in the 5900-6000 area, we shouldn't drop further.
ノート
Just a small update on this chart. It looks like we actually hit my initial bearish targets (for the green and red scenarios). Following the red line so far. As I've indicated in my newest analysis, we could see a further drop and extreme extension of the bear market (alts are looking weak too). This area seems to be the last place for a reversal that could take us out of the bear market sooner rather than later. We could also follow the red scenario and just fail at previous support. Interestingly, my previous prediction for the next potential market cap bottom was around 130B, but this was months ago. We are currently in that area, though it's looking a lot worse than I expected it would if we made it there.
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