BTCUSD - A Couple scales of Diametric Corrections
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Hi guys,
I think we may be playing out a series of bearish diametrics. The two current ones have not been confirmed, but one is very close to confirmation. I think BTC may play out something along the lines of what I've included in my chart - the smallest one being more likely than the second, but the second larger one also having a very real possibility. I think we may currently be in Wave-F of the smaller diametric, with some retrace to the upside (Wave-B) still before continuing down for it's completion (Wave-C).
The implications of the large diametric playing out are that we will see new lows not previously seen in the last dump. Taking a look at previous corrections on BTC, it would not be so ridiculous to find a bottom at around $1250 or approximately the high of the previous bull run before the correction is over (please don't let that price scare you or think this idea can't happen - previous bottoms of BTC corrections have tested the highs of previous runs before, and I don't see why not again).
Why I think this is a feasible possibility is the Libra. If the Libra ends up becoming a real viable way to pay for goods and services online - then technically, in my eyes, it will severely hurt BTC at least initially. My reason for thinking this is that BTC would technically have a much smaller current use case if everyone were to use the Facebook coin to pay for things and make BTC not really needed in the financial sector except to act possibly as a competitor to the Libra for financial transactions and is currently well known. However, Facebook is also much MORE well known than BTC, and will make itself available to all of it's massive user base. You also can't avoid that BTC has been developing bearish divergence since the run up to $1200 or so (have a look) and so this could play out now, or maybe later.
BTC then would have to rediscover it's position in the markets, and find out what it's use case truly can be. Maybe it really does become digital gold and people use it as a store of value, raising its price once again to new highs - I'm really not sure at this point. I think this assumption can go for any crypto with a financial use case - the Libra is a THREAT at least initially to them - not something that will help them. The Libra though will bring public adoption to the crypto space, so in time it could be good for financial crypto. The same bearish outlook doesn't apply to coins and tokens with a utility purpose other than financial in my mind.
Anyways, have a look and let me know what you think. My price targets will likely be wildly off, but I feel the pattern will hold provided we get the right confirmations.
I think we may be playing out a series of bearish diametrics. The two current ones have not been confirmed, but one is very close to confirmation. I think BTC may play out something along the lines of what I've included in my chart - the smallest one being more likely than the second, but the second larger one also having a very real possibility. I think we may currently be in Wave-F of the smaller diametric, with some retrace to the upside (Wave-B) still before continuing down for it's completion (Wave-C).
The implications of the large diametric playing out are that we will see new lows not previously seen in the last dump. Taking a look at previous corrections on BTC, it would not be so ridiculous to find a bottom at around $1250 or approximately the high of the previous bull run before the correction is over (please don't let that price scare you or think this idea can't happen - previous bottoms of BTC corrections have tested the highs of previous runs before, and I don't see why not again).
Why I think this is a feasible possibility is the Libra. If the Libra ends up becoming a real viable way to pay for goods and services online - then technically, in my eyes, it will severely hurt BTC at least initially. My reason for thinking this is that BTC would technically have a much smaller current use case if everyone were to use the Facebook coin to pay for things and make BTC not really needed in the financial sector except to act possibly as a competitor to the Libra for financial transactions and is currently well known. However, Facebook is also much MORE well known than BTC, and will make itself available to all of it's massive user base. You also can't avoid that BTC has been developing bearish divergence since the run up to $1200 or so (have a look) and so this could play out now, or maybe later.
BTC then would have to rediscover it's position in the markets, and find out what it's use case truly can be. Maybe it really does become digital gold and people use it as a store of value, raising its price once again to new highs - I'm really not sure at this point. I think this assumption can go for any crypto with a financial use case - the Libra is a THREAT at least initially to them - not something that will help them. The Libra though will bring public adoption to the crypto space, so in time it could be good for financial crypto. The same bearish outlook doesn't apply to coins and tokens with a utility purpose other than financial in my mind.
Anyways, have a look and let me know what you think. My price targets will likely be wildly off, but I feel the pattern will hold provided we get the right confirmations.
トレード稼働中
B should be done in 5 minutes or so. Onwards down to C.ノート
Things still going according to plan here. Targets were a bit off but not bad, we should be beginning Wave-G now. How it behaves here will decide if the diametric is valid or not, if we break the high on Wave-E the diametric is invalid, but technically it can finish anywhere below it and still work out. If we break Wave-E then I would say this is an impulsive series and we are going to go much higher.ノート
Basically, Wave-G should end higher than C, but lower than E for a diametric.ノート
Updated look is like this - I wouldn't be surprised if we end at the top of the regression channel (top of the blue portion) ノート
And find some resistance at the mean of it (red/blue boundary) like was seen during Wave-B.ノート
Wish I could delete comments XD, hate doubling back on myself, but Wave-C shouldn't be completed, even though its time is reasonable (it was AB/2) we likely have one more downwave after this little bit of up... I won't be surprised if it is very slow and takes the entire time that Wave-C has taken so far to conclude. Should finish above the top of Wave-A somewhere, possibly close tot he price target I had originally.ノート
Okay, I believe that last bounce there was the long, so we should be in Wave-G currently.ノート
Time of Wave-C was AB/2 (not sure how I measured it before, but that bounce was) and the price of C was 61,8% of A, so it should be a perfect time to bounce.ノート
Heh... just noticed one slightly HUGE mistake... due to the lengths of the waves, this is not Wave-G... sorry I have been away the past few days and sort of thundergunned an update.Wave-G in all likelihood completed as what I call Wave-B... This is the down part of the diametric... it should be DOWN from here. Ignore all the updates I sent today.... if anyone is reading this.
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Having said there might be slight up, but it shouldn't be significant. We should be now working on the larger diametric, Price Target somewhere between D and B of the purple one. I have F drawn too low for some reason looking at it, sho it should be higher. Going to hazard a guess at 6k target. Then we will bounce and do a larger Wave-G. Will update with something less shitty when that happens. Sorry for the mistakes.ノート
I'm pretty confident we are due for the next wave down now.ノート
Alright, could be time to continue down, everything still looking great for the diametric idea.ノート
While this idea is not dead, seeing what BTC just has done in the last couple hours makes me question it sadly. There is the chance that this is the final impulsive series instead, Wave-5, and we are just beginning Wave-3 of it. Could lead to a higher high than we've seen this run.ノート
In fact, I would go as far to say that you should probably close your shorts if you have them open, I'd be willing to bet it is. I'll make a new idea shortly with the complete opposite idea and hang my head between my legs in shame, haha.To the moon!
手動でトレードを終了しました
It's going up.トレード稼働中
Think this idea is still the correct one, I just couldn't see the bigger picture. Wave-G can end above Wave-E also (which I was not aware of), so we are probably looking at an end to the current correction at 9100, and then one last wave up before the diametric completes and we resume downwards motion.
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Placed A sloppily, this one tradingview.com/x/v9TFSwKh/.手動でトレードを終了しました
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I don't think this is likely, I think that there is a larger diametric at play on the BTC 1W-1M timeframe potentially. Additional options would be impulsive series, and we are in a correction.Please see my other ideas that use the BLX historical BTC price data, so I actually have a full BTC chart and can get a reasonable overall count.
Ideas here:
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