Bitcoin Is Oversold

2023年2月7日

If Bitcoin is to continue its 2023 bull trend, then it should imminently move to 25K. Most retail traders on Twitter believe Bitcoin will crash; however, I do not expect this will happen. Bitcoin is moving in a clearly defined UPTREND. BTC at 22k - 23K is CHEAP. Bitcoin sellers at these levels are too shrouded by recency bias to see the big picture.

+45M cryptocurrency long positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours. Shorts have had it too easy for the past five days. Now it is time for them to liquidate.

BITCOIN BULL CASE

• Soft landing (minor recession). Markets have been pricing in a 2008-style recessionary crash for the past year. The longer this doesn't happen, the more FOMO buy pressure will rise. I believe the Federal Reserve will raise rates by +25 basis points during the next two FOMC meetings, causing a minor recession. As investors realize the economy isn't as bad as they thought, this will cause them to buy.
  
• Seller exhaustion. Bitcoin has moved in a brutal bear market through 2022, bottoming down -78% below its all-time high. At today's low prices, there are now more buyers than sellers.
  
• US set to raise the debt ceiling. Although inflation is still an issue, the money printing should soon work in Bitcoin's favor. Beginning this month, we may again hear analysts on CNBC call Bitcoin an 'inflation hedge' (remember 2020?!).