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Bitcoin almost at first decision point.

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This is a follow-up to previous W analysis, dating back to June 18th (last low day).
I posted plenty of updates there and there's not much i feel to add, except that we almost reached the FIRST decision point.

As i wrote previously, in my opinion Bitcoin has two possible routes up: either from above or from below the June low (general area).

In order to fulfil the former option it should -ideally- play a double bottom scenario, roughly as represented on the above chart (Adam/eve bottom).
It boils down to confirming that falling wedge by keeping afloat of support and piercing up 20,1k + MA20/W (now at 22,5k).

RSI vs Stoch RSI is not ideal, but it has a chance it and overall R:R is decent.
First target mid-20s, second mid-30s (to be re-evaluated).
Intraweek wicks, both ways, wouldn't matter.
Eyes on W close and on volume.

The above scenario would be my preferred option.
Failing that, the lower route chances would increase.
Yet no hurry, let's focus on the former option for now.

"Prettified" weekly chart:

Same scenario as seen on Monthly, about 2 weeks ago:

s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/q/q1TN5h5o.png

Figsers crossed.
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As always, DYOR and measure your risk.
Have a stop.

Previous analysis:

Capitolation ongoing. Likely bear trap unfolding. Buy the dip.

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Up about 600$ and testing resistance.
Match is starting, we'll measure the outcome on W close.

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Good, but we still can't rule out a rejection.

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To be evaluated on W close.
Long way to go.

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Still sideways within a 12% range, see box.
Pretty unremarkable and boring price action.

Breakout of that range will be telling.
For now we have a pullback to previous resistance, an inner wedge and a bullish divergence ongoing. Stoch RSI looks close to bottoming, while DXY seems about to stall.

No hurry, let's see ...

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Some W MAs painted on M, for a both-TF synthetic view.

Key is MA20/W (red) falling and creating a wedge-like scenario.
Black is MA200/W, just for reference.

The way the lower BB expands more than the upper one usually implies a bullish bias. That said M is a huge TF and intra-month wicks cannot be excluded.

All in all the above chart says we are getting very close to the first decision point, so watch out for range breakout and look for a confirmation in volume.

Get ready for high volatility, which is likely to span (possibilye) from second half of october to whole november.

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Last time i saw such a scenario was inmarch 2019.
Let's see whether Bitcoin is going to rhyme this time ...

EDIT: typo above, black is actually MA300/W

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Zooming a bit:

No comment needed.

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Zooming:

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No volume.
Patience, expect a big move.

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No doubt we sit on the edge of a strong move

That's likely to start on Binance.
Look at that volume, pretty different from other exchanges.

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Any sideways movements come to an end and this won't be an exception.
It won't take long before we get back (huge) volatility.

Weekly RSI (green), look for a breakout:

2-week MACD VXI, crossover looks close:

Eyes on DXY as well.

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It will be a huge move, breaking the range.

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twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1584498585559011330/photo/1

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Here we go.

Price broke out of congestion and is in route towards MA20/W area (20,5-21k) where it should find resistance.

MA20/W is THE key resistance and it may end with a squeeze or a strong rejection. Likely after a few attempts.

For the current movement to be meaningful MA20/W should be pierced on a weekly close and confirmed on the following week, possibly with good volume.

No hurry, let's see and wait for a confirmation of the scenario.

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Moreover, RSI didn't breakout yet:

Watch it.

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Let's sum it up, on W:

You get why MA20/W is key.

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Watch RSI/W.

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Test of MA20/W clearly ongoing.

The outcome of the "upper route" described here depends on the breakout of such MA, with a further confirmation on weekly close on at least 2 consecutive weeks.

A strong rejection would be cumbersome and may invalidate the scenario.
So this is a crossroad.

Be aware of risks: better to have a stop, as usual, for a comfortable ride.

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Let me tell it straight: it's crucial to confirm the below attempt of RSI/W breakout on tomorrow close.

A failure would likely mean a sudden slump.
Which would come at a noticeable cost in term of price and time.

Watch it.

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RSI breakout not confirmed, still at resistance and beginning to show slight bearich divergences on D. Time to use some caution, be sure to have a TP placed.

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See MA20/W acting as resistance.

Failing such test would imply revisiting 19,6k. First place.
That's the reason i suggest using some caution here.

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Comment: Further test ongoing.
Not much time left, it's either breakout or rejection within few days imho.
All depends on volume.

Watch it.

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Confluence pretty close to MA20/W.

That's the calm before the storm.
Volatilty ahead, likely both ways.

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Both ways, indeed ...

Let's have the dust settle.

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Ok, here we go.
Here things will get really messy.

The below chart is merely illustrative of the broad scenario, in order to let me explain better my view.

As you notice we have some small (candidate) bullish flag, which may play out for some time.
Bulls need to confirm it in order to achieve a measured move up, basicalli an "inverted" ABC up to 22k.

Failing to do so, (whatever the route - ABC there is just sketched) would be pretty messy ad we already have some bad omen:

1) a rising wedge (exmaple in red)
2) a bearish divergence (purple) on RSI.

So, simply put, from here bulls need to prove able to:

1) negate the rising wedge, breaking it up.
2) pierce up through upper daily BB (and close above) .
3) cancel that divergence by setting a HH in the 22k.

That's pretty tricky.

They do have a chance, especially if NASDAQ bounces, but you should be aware of the risks and act accordingly.
Because failing the above scanrio, bears would likely regain the initiative. Albeit temporarily imho.

Hence be sure to protect your gains with a stop.

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Very tricky even down to intraday TF:

Let's wait for DOW and NASDAQ.

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Schwerpunkt.
Let's hope the show will be worth the wait.

Eyes on RSI/W on monday.

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At resistance:

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Clearly rejected by upper bound of the rising wedge.

Still in bearish divergence with no HH.
Messy, as expected.

Weekly close was above MA20/W, so let's see whether 20,6k can hold for.
A bounce is possible.

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Longer term:

RSI/W was broken up, that's good.
Will look for confirmation on next W close.

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FTX drama led to los of 20,6k, after the failure to overcome the rising wedge on saturday. Price saw a sudden slump, with infraction of the lower bound of the rising wedge.

Fragile scenario, worsened by the ongoing divergence.
Failing to overcome 20-20,2k would pose a serious threat to the odds of completing the upper route.

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No words.

twitter.com/SBF_FTX/status/1590012124864348160

Chapeau, CZ.

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Given the picture on 4H: oversold, overextended and diverging, i think a pullback towards the edge of the rising wedge is likely to happen.

Then to be re-evaluated.
20-20,2k is the key resistance.

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No bounce, straight to lows.
Impressive.

I think no point guessing till CZ / SBF speak.

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No news is bad news.

While no irreparable damage has been done to the "upper" route, as we currently still it close to june low, it's time to look and prepare the lower route as well.

This is my battle plan:

1) i'm putting a foot in right here, by allocating 1/3 of liquidity in 16,9-16,6k area). Started already, by filling down to the 16,8k mark.
Main idea here is cutting a wick / catching a technical bounce eventually.

2) I've scattered 4 buy order in the 14.300-12.800$ area, along the lower route. Just in case not only FTX, but whole Alameda gonna fail. 1/3 liquidity as well.

3) Now hands free, I'll use remaining liquidity to try and catch a knife eventually.

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Not much of a movement, so far.

Adding a couple buy orders @15350$ and 14550$ and letting them run overnight.
Good night.

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The picture so far.