Bitcoin is in a consolidation

2021年8月2日

Bitcoin is currently consolidating after a nice short-squeeze driven upthrust on the daily from approx. 30k to 42k.
The main thing to take away from this new primary wave is that it has completely reset the derivatives market:
shorts that could comfortably hold on to their positions acquired during the excessive downthrust in May had to cover, got stopped and liquidated en masse as at one moment the price even spiked up to 48k on binance.

Lets try to understand where the price is moving next.
When applying a fib retracement to the may downthrust from 59.5k to 30k (labels on the left), one can observe that the uptrend has lost momentum between the 0.382 and 0.618 fib levels.

I now want to know at what price level the current consolidation from 42k will probably revert.

To answer this, let's take a look at the fib retracements of the current upthrust:

• 0.382 (37475)
  
• 0.618 (34357)
  
• 0.786 (32138)
  

Fundamentally, i do believe that the market is currently in a wyckoff accumulation phace D, shortly after the SOS (sign of strength) point.
This means that the following pattern is to be expected: rising triangle with a rather weak maximum retracement and a breakout north for the rocket in phase E.
So in lieu of this, i am leaning towards a 0.382 retracement. I am not thinking that the market has just completed the A wave of an A-B-C correction (to the may crash),
as:

• the current upthrust has formed a new higher high.
  
• shorts are no longer organised (as can also be seen from the massive decline on symbol bitfinex:BTCUSDSHORTS, and by the reversal of the long/short ration on binance in favor of longs)
  

But let's consolidate this first impression with some more analysis, specifically trend lines:

The bears are currently pushing the price down at a somewhat steep-angled trendline (1). This trend probably won't hold up for long and when it brakes, a nice upward thrust is to be expected. But more importantly, I am looking to find an upsloping trendline for the rising triangle pattern that i am expecting to ensue (which has its top at 42521).
I can find one (2) which the market has recently started to print. When extrapolating this trend line down to the likely 0.386 fib retracement level where the reversal will likely occur,
i am getting trend line (3) which i am expecting to be the main resistance for the coming days, leading into phase E.
Coincidentally, together with a long standing trend line from back in february (4), all 3 trendlines converge at a single point on the 0.386 retracement level,
which i expect to be the point of reversal (or if not, at least to be a major bounce level).

Long talk short give away: reversal to the moon will come at 37500 in my view.

2021年8月3日

ノート

Seems like the market bounced at 37600-ish. I am now expecting the price to develop as indicated by the blue path drawn here:



a retest of the upper downsloping trendline at around 41k and a reversal there. This would then form a head & shoulder pattern which could bring the market down to the 0.5 fib at 35916, or more likely in the bullish case, down to trend line (3) or possibly (4). At one of these points, i am then expecting the reversal to a new higher high on the daily.

It might also be very possible that the market is going to play the falling wedge formed by trendline (4) on the bottom and the unlabled yellow one on the top. This would possibly bring price down into the 36k range before the breakout to a higher high happens.

2021年8月4日

ノート

Went down 100 more and the market did in fact bounce at 37500. I am quite surprised that it in fact bounced exactly at the mentioned confluence point.
Expecting the price now to follow one of the blue paths as stated above. A breakout above the upper downsloping trendline would be super bullish and almost certainly lead to a new higher high on the daily.