Time for Oil to Jump the Creek?
アップデート済
This is just an idea based on price action around my clones ranges and OPEC agreeing to cut 1.2 MBD - though it seems the market is waiting for bullish reports to validate that this cut will have an impact:
1. Supply has possibly exhausted near the strong November 2016 Rally/Breakout Level
2. Equilibrium between Buyers and Sellers last week may have validated the selling exhaustion
3. So far on increasing volume we have seen Higher Demand
4. Viewing the Descending Supply areas from since mid-November as a 'creek' of Supply that is too strong to cross, if we see a continued increase in volume and price over the next trading week(s), then Supply may be thinning/narrowing and it may be a good time to try and jump the creek.
5. Keep an eye on 52.56, this was a very significant pivot/breakup/breakdown level in 2016 following the end of year OPEC decision to cut production.
THIS I JUST AN IDEA as prices may range 50-55 for months as they did in 2016; but I am seeing the last High Volume Demand level at 51.56-51.86 as a good level to enter Long and/or if prices do 'Jump the Creek' and test 55.12-55.90 validating a bullish breakout; look for a pullback to broken Supply at 53.93 to add/enter Long. If we do see a breakout rally, I see potential re-accumulation up to targets at 59.87 and 62.25 prior to a healthy pullback.
For the Wyckoffians out there, I am viewing Friday's decline as a potential Selling test in Phase B and from here am looking for higher LPS's.
Link to an excellent Wyckoff tutorial:
static1.squarespace.com/static/54fed56be4b0b8a1d3d33918/t/558090a1e4b01a827bd89c51/1434488993915/Wyckoff+Schematics-+Visual+Templates+For+Market+Timing+Decisions.pdf
1. Supply has possibly exhausted near the strong November 2016 Rally/Breakout Level
2. Equilibrium between Buyers and Sellers last week may have validated the selling exhaustion
3. So far on increasing volume we have seen Higher Demand
4. Viewing the Descending Supply areas from since mid-November as a 'creek' of Supply that is too strong to cross, if we see a continued increase in volume and price over the next trading week(s), then Supply may be thinning/narrowing and it may be a good time to try and jump the creek.
5. Keep an eye on 52.56, this was a very significant pivot/breakup/breakdown level in 2016 following the end of year OPEC decision to cut production.
THIS I JUST AN IDEA as prices may range 50-55 for months as they did in 2016; but I am seeing the last High Volume Demand level at 51.56-51.86 as a good level to enter Long and/or if prices do 'Jump the Creek' and test 55.12-55.90 validating a bullish breakout; look for a pullback to broken Supply at 53.93 to add/enter Long. If we do see a breakout rally, I see potential re-accumulation up to targets at 59.87 and 62.25 prior to a healthy pullback.
For the Wyckoffians out there, I am viewing Friday's decline as a potential Selling test in Phase B and from here am looking for higher LPS's.
Link to an excellent Wyckoff tutorial:
static1.squarespace.com/static/54fed56be4b0b8a1d3d33918/t/558090a1e4b01a827bd89c51/1434488993915/Wyckoff+Schematics-+Visual+Templates+For+Market+Timing+Decisions.pdf
ノート
My recommendation here would be to wait for a break up to 55.x and retrace to 53.9-54 for a long entry as with Brexit looming on Tuesday there is definitely potential for a move down. Following the June 2016 Brexit vote, the next daily oil candle dropped over 3 dollars. If prices do breakdown further, I would look for a strong bounce at 48; else, to the upside, look for a daily close above 53.93
免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または保証する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類のアドバイスや推奨を意図したものではなく、またそのようなものでもありません。詳しくは利用規約をご覧ください。