$CMG is having correction by multiple compression.

9月14日

- CMG is not undervalued, price has fallen lower from all time highs but the drop is justified.
- This company was trading at 65x forward earnings perhaps because of flawless execution by it's ex-CEO.
- But this company is experiencing declines in same store sales and revenue growth is moderating.
- Currently, as of Sept 14, 2025, It's trading at 27x forward earnings which is not too high but not too low either.

- I have marked three zones, first red zone is for people looking for a counter trend/bounce ideally for swing traders. Yellow/Cyan for investors who might want to DCA and lastly green zone which is good for long term investors.

Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 1.21 | 1.42 | 1.67 | 2.07
EPS% | 8.38% | 17.02% | 17.63% | 23.82%

EPS is growing mid teens. A fair forward p/e would be 15 but I am willing to pay around 20 x forward p/e for the brand value with a hope they will turn around the business


Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 1.21 | 1.42 | 1.67 | 2.07
Fair value | $24 | $28.4 | $33 | $41.4

As we know, we are only a quarter away from 2026, therefore, If I had to consider CMG it would be around somewhere between $28-$33 otherwise I will stay away from this company.

9月14日

ノート

- Please note that 27x forward p/e is richly valued as this is not a tech company. Even if it was a tech company with similar growth rate 27x forward p/e is considered high for them.

- Therefore, CMG needs to adjust to a fair multiple.

10月31日

ノート

- I warned everyone to stay away from CMG

10月31日

ノート

- CMG is in DCA zone but I am still not buying the stock as I need more compelling valuation to consider it as deep value

10月31日

ノート

- Food related business takes time for the turn around

一昨日

トレード終了: 利益確定目標に到達

Accumulating CMG for the long side $29.xx average