5/30/24 - vrockstar - 
ESTC - careful here. burning a post to warn that this 10x sales valuation but ~20% pa growth and no opex flex + a ton of stock comp obscuring true FCF generation are the factors that are getting murdered in this tape. the stock has been an unlikley winner since struggling v. the Q's for some time. the options chain is defn pricing in a lot of volatility and many are hedging quite expensive (for good reason in the 80s handle). don't think this is one that beats and rips much further than low 100s and downside is probably 2x the upside here.
caution.
ESTC - careful here. burning a post to warn that this 10x sales valuation but ~20% pa growth and no opex flex + a ton of stock comp obscuring true FCF generation are the factors that are getting murdered in this tape. the stock has been an unlikley winner since struggling v. the Q's for some time. the options chain is defn pricing in a lot of volatility and many are hedging quite expensive (for good reason in the 80s handle). don't think this is one that beats and rips much further than low 100s and downside is probably 2x the upside here. caution.
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