ETH over the last year and now today

一昨日

I wanted to zoom out of the chart that I provided yesterday identifying this potential for buying the dip. We did break down through bottom of ascending channel for just a fast wick but it likely indicates we are breaking out of this ascension. As you see there is a lot of potential for a sideways channel here at the top of the larger (slightly descending) sideways channel, here we could consolidate in the top third of the channel and then build up the courage to try to break out of top of this year long channel again, or break down and potentially trace all the way back to bottom of channel which as you see is as low as $2200. If we break that $3500 support, I will become short term bearish. Market has been strong though so good chance we maintain top of channel and try to break out again in the near future.

IMO daily candle charts are the most important and reliable charts. I do like 4 hour candles as they are more granular for seeing trends and are pretty close to as reliable and I often look at 1 hour candles for a pulse on the now but generally speaking, the shorter candle you use, the less you can rely on it.

Lets take a look at the break down of the daily candle.

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# ETH/USD Analysis – Daily Chart 📊

## Structure and Price Action:

**Ascending Channel with Breakdown Risks**
ETH/USD is currently trading within a **parallel ascending channel**, with price oscillating between its upper and lower bounds (green lines). Recently, the price sharply rejected at **$4,100** and is now testing the **lower trendline support** near **$3,500**.

**Bearish Rejection Near Key Resistance**
Sellers emerged strongly at the **$4,100 Bearish Order Block (OB)**, leading to a steep reversal. This highlights a significant supply zone at this level.

**Approaching Key Demand Zone**
The price is nearing **Bullish Order Blocks (OB)** around **$3,500–$3,600** (green zones), where buyers have defended historically. This is a critical support area within the larger channel.

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## Support and Resistance:

**Immediate Resistance**
- **$3,600–$3,700**: Overhead resistance zone, aligned with EMA 20 and mid-channel range.
- **$4,100**: Major supply zone, previously rejected at this level.

**Key Support Levels**
- **$3,500**: Current demand area reinforced by a key trend line
- **$2,800–$3,000**: Next structural support if breakdown occurs.

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## Indicators

**EMAs (20/50/100/200):**
- The price has dropped below **EMA 20 ($3,800)** and **EMA 50 ($3,750)**, indicating short-term bearish momentum.
- **EMA 100 ($3,610)** is providing immediate dynamic support.
- **EMA 200 ($3,380)** remains a critical long-term support level.

**Parabolic SAR**
- SAR dots are below the candles indicating an up wave in progress but it seems muted.

**Volume**
- Recent sell-off saw a **volume surge**, confirming active participation in the pullback.

**Stochastic RSI**
- Currently **oversold** (9.30/26.79), favoring a short-term bounce from this zone.

**Money Flow Index (MFI)**
- MFI is sitting at **51.26**, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions but showing signs of selling pressure easing.

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## Pattern Analysis:

**Ascending Channel Breakdown Risk**
ETH/USD is testing the **lower channel boundary ($3,500)**. A breakdown below this level could invalidate the top of channel, leading to bearish momentum targeting lower support levels.

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## Probabilistic Outlook

**Bullish Scenario (Primary Case):**
If buyers defend the **$3,500–$3,600** zone with rising volume:
- **First Target**: $3,800–$3,850 (EMA 20 and mid-channel resistance).
- **Second Target**: $4,000–$4,100 (upper channel resistance).

**Bearish Scenario (Alternate Case):**
If the price closes below **$3,500**:
- **First Target**: $3,200 (next structural support).
- **Second Target**: $3,000–$2,800 (psychological level and major demand zone).

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## Key Signals to Watch:
1. **$3,500 Support**: Holding or breaking this level will decide the next move.
2. **Volume Confirmation**: Rising volume on bounce or breakdown strengthens directional bias.
3. **Stochastic RSI Oversold Levels**: Signals a possible bounce unless selling pressure increases.

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## Order Book Update:
Order books continue to look dirty but with potential for recovery. Both asks and bids tracking a downward trend, asks is staging a potential ascending channel though many times asks have lost a bit more than bids on pullback, indicating negative trader sentiment or fear in the market, it is in a position to change course over the next days but until it does, books are under pressure.

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## Conclusion:
ETH/USD is at a **critical inflection point**, testing the lower trendline of the ascending channel converting to a sideways channel to consolidate before breaking out or breaking down. Bulls need to defend **$3,500** to sustain the medium term bullish structure. A successful defense targets **$3,800–$4,100**, with anything higher than $4100 starting a new breakout and while failure to maintain $3500 opens the path toward **$2,800** or lower.

🔍 **Monitor volume, key support levels, and stochastic momentum for confirmation.** 🚨