ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Selling Structure But No Selling.

2017年10月1日

ETHUSD Update: Lower high in place at 301 to 307 area which has occurred after the break of the 291 support (.382 of bullish swing). This is another bearish sign that shows this market is more likely to sell off, rather than go to new highs.

I have been writing about this market and BTC for days now. The wave counts have been pointing to further weakness even in the face of what appears to be persistent strength. The confirmation that bears are in control will be established IF the 280 level gets taken out (this will be a bearish breakout and lower low compared to the previous low).

The smaller time frames have been showing strength and traders who do not know how to incorporate the bigger picture cannot see the limitations of this bullish price action. BTC is still stuck within its resistance zone, while this market, if it manages to push higher, still has to have enough buying to get through the 320 to 352 zone in order to prove it has enough strength to continue to even higher prices. IF it pushes the zone, that does not constitute a buy signal. It would have to establish new supports and reversal structures in order for MY plan to qualify a long.

The failure off of 312 and subsequent lower high which is now 307 can be the beginning of the selling structure that can turn into the bearish Wave C that I have been writing about for days. The conditions are present to facilitate a selloff, all that is required now is a spark, like some piece of negative news. (If the market sells hard, people will think the news caused it, but the market is vulnerable now. Just needs a reason to push it.)

Again I have been using information to stay flat. If some very positive news comes out instead, that can erase the factors that are pointing to serious selling. News is a random element that must get priced into the market. What less experienced traders do not realize is this: news, as much as you like to think has a rational effect on prices, is NOT rational. It's interpretation is dependent on the sentiment of the market crowd, not our individual logic and irrelevant opinions. This is why there are times when news may come out that is good, but "not good enough" or bad, "but not that bad" in the eyes of the crowd. This is why I will let the market crowd figure it out, and once an imbalance is reached (more sellers than buyers or vice versa) then the price action will show clarity allow for decision making to be much easier.

In summary, the lower high that is in place at 307 is just another sign that adds to the growing bearish argument in this market. A break below the 280 level, especially accompanied by a catalyst, will confirm bearish momentum which reduces the probabilities that supports will hold if the market retests them. I am just reporting the clues that the market is offering at the moment and they can be erased if some very positive information enters this market. My concern is risk, not being right or wrong and based on the current price action and structure, it appears risk for a long swing trade is very high relative to the potential reward. So I continue to stay flat and wait until the market offers better opportunities. Patience preserves capital, took me years and a ton of money to learn that lesson.

Questions and comments welcome.