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Euro losses, bottom of the dollar, and oil is at a crossroads

The start of the week was not the best for the euro. After two weeks of growth, which resulted in the strengthening of the euro against the dollar by more than 600 points, the fuse of buyers has dried up. Firstly, sooner or later it was necessary to take profits anyway, and secondly, yesterday there was a reason for this. We are talking about disastrous data on industrial production in Germany: a figure of -18% relative to the previous month will return anyone to earth. And thirdly, the dollar seems to have groped the bottom, especially after Friday's statistics on the US labor market.

Nevertheless, we would not be in a hurry to turn over into euro sales across the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market. The intraday decrease in EURUSD for us is an occasion for the pair to buy. In addition, we will use the euro reduction as a reason for buying the EURGBP. At the same time, we note that the EURJPY pair seems to us to be a very promising object for sales.

Oil yesterday tried to take advantage of the news about extending the maximum decline in oil production for another month, but it did not work. It should be understood that the new agreement by and large does not change much in the overall situation in the oil market and, in fact, this is just a small delay. At least, this is how we perceive it and continue to believe that for the further growth of oil we need more encouraging news about the growing demand in the market.

But serious problems are quite possible with this. The fact is that the pandemic is not thinking of dying away, and if the situation in India and Brazil continues to develop as it has been developing for the last 2-3 weeks, then new problems for the oil market are still ahead. In general, we find current prices extremely uncomfortable for new oil purchases under the current conditions.

British Petroleum, meanwhile, announced its intention to cut 15% of its staff in 2020. It is about 10,000 employees. This is to the question of what is really happening in the world labor markets and why it is not worth much to please the Friday data on the NFP.