General Market Outlook - June 29th, 2014

2014年6月29日

Interesting Pairs:

EUR/USD - Bearish
- Despite my confusing view from last week, I think the 1.367X level will be an interesting level to short this week. Use tight stops though.

From last week:
Long term - I see a potential bearish flag on the chart, which signals continuation drop is coming?
Short term - A retrace wouldn't be out of the question for a healthy bear run but it would have to break the bear flag in order to do so, which conflicts with the long term view. Also, price never hit 1.4000 so that's a bull target that was never reached.

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GBP/USD - Bearish
- As expected, price retraced up to 1.70483 on Monday. I entered short at 1.7045 and exited at 1.6955 for 90 pips.
- Luckily I did because price retraced again and from the looks of it, I wouldn't be surprised if price continued moving up next week to hit the 1.71 level, where I'll be loading my big shorts.

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USD/CAD - Bullish
- My previous 1.07 level of interest was broken and I got stopped out of my trade (-20 pips)
- My next level of interest is at the 1.06 level, which happens to be the 61.8 fib level as well.
- Closely below that is the 1.0565 level, so a wider stop should be advised if you plan to load longs down there.

NOTE: No new positions should be opened right now.
> If you're short, set a trailing stop or start taking partial profits.
> If you're long, consider exiting for a loss because I can see price dropping another 60 to 100 pips from here.
> Why not open new shorts if price can continue dropping?? Price is already stretched as it is, we're in the final stretch of this down move so there's a high risk associated with going short here.

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USD/JPY - Bearish
- Last week, I was waiting for price to break out of the symmetrical triangle.
- I did go short upon breaking out but decided close my short on Friday for 40 pips due to the approaching support level.
- Price may retrace a bit to test the broken trend line (magenta) before continuing down, so I'll be looking for a re-entry if it does.

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XAG/USD - Bearish
- Nothing has changed from last week, still waiting to see what happens at $21.
- Given the current price struggle, I'm leaning towards a drop in the coming days/weeks.

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Confusing Pairs:

AUD/USD - Bearish
- I really hope you guys heeded my warning about a retrace and none of you entered short at market open last week
- It retraced more than I thought it would but fortunately, due to not being high on my "to trade" list, I didn't enter short until 0.943X.
- I exited half my short for 50 pips near the bottom of that red candle and got stopped out of the rest when price decided to retrace again.
- Although I'm overall bearish, moving forwards, I'm a bit confused due to price staying up here longer than I expected.
- For those of considering to go short, use a tight stop above 0.945X

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Disclosure: All open positions are disclosed above, if I don't mention having one then it should be assumed at all times that I plan to trade based on my analysis, so take this into consideration as I may be biased.