EURUSD Long for the rest of Oct 2015

2015年10月17日

There is an agreement between Fundamentals and Technicals in indicating that the USD is getting weaker. On the Weekly chart, the Bulls seems to be chipping its way north. There had been rejections, but this can't be construed as Bearish signals, on the contrary, they are indications that buyers are just accumulating their Longs and those rejections are just them not following up their buying so price could still go down. They want the price to go down some more so they could increase their Long positions on a bargain.

On the Daily Chart, we see some ideal entries for long. The most ideal would be at 1.12500. But Bulls could decide to enter as early as 1.12800. So if market doesn't reach 1.12500, we could get left behind.

2015年10月19日

ノート

Some analysts are saying that the ECB could strike down the EUR because a strong EUR won't do any good for the EUROZONE particularly on Germany. We'll see. But some other market forces are at work. They're unwinding their EURO shorts and slowly buying the EURO back. Hence, though the market could have some knee jerk reaction on the ECB's statements, the EUR could still come back strong.

Because of this uncertainty, I will hold off trading this pair, until a clear direction is set.

2015年10月22日

トレード終了: ストップロスに到達

There's too much Fundamentals at play in the Market these days that Technical Analysis alone won't be enough to make sense of what's happening.

ECB kept Interest Rates as expected. Super Mario is dovish as expected. And the US of A has signs that it is recovering(and it will recover further as the holidays are approaching). So Fiber went down and the Dollar stronger. Still, the mixed messages from the FOMC regarding a raise should spell USD weakness. But since it is to EU's advantage to make EURO weaker, going against ECB would be very unwise. I may now revise my bullish breakout stance on the Fiber.

However, natural market flow is still on the side of the Bulls, and only the speculators are driving the sudden reactive moves coming from news and central bank statements. Once everything settles down, a slow climb for the EUR is what we're expecting.

Overall, the market is still in an unresolved state, So the Fiber could have an extended consolidation spanning the rest of the year.